WPAC: IN-FA - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: IN-FA - Typhoon

#121 Postby euro6208 » Sat Nov 21, 2015 4:07 am

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 21 NOV 2015 Time : 080000 UTC
Lat : 12:03:14 N Lon : 140:43:02 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.6 / 954.9mb/104.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.1 5.5 5.7

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :<10 km

Center Temp : -23.3C Cloud Region Temp : -70.4C

Scene Type : PINHOLE EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 111km
- Environmental MSLP : 1007mb

Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 14.1 degrees
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Re: WPAC: IN-FA - Typhoon

#122 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 21, 2015 4:55 am

Forecast to become a SuperTyphoon.

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Re: WPAC: IN-FA - Typhoon

#123 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 21, 2015 9:41 am

JTWC warning of 15:00 UTC at 115kts.New peak intensity is down to 125kts and the same recurving track stands.


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#124 Postby supercane » Sat Nov 21, 2015 3:19 pm

WTPQ50 RJTD 211800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1526 IN-FA (1526)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 211800UTC 12.8N 137.9E GOOD
MOVE WNW 18KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 221800UTC 15.1N 133.4E 75NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
48HF 231800UTC 16.9N 131.6E 110NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
72HF 241800UTC 18.1N 132.8E 220NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
96HF 251800UTC 19.7N 134.8E 240NM 70%
MOVE NE 06KT
120HF 261800UTC 21.7N 137.8E 300NM 70%
MOVE NE 09KT =
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#125 Postby supercane » Sat Nov 21, 2015 3:39 pm

New JTWC 21Z advisory shows weakening from now on.
WTPN51 PGTW 212100
WARNING ATCG MIL 27W NWP 151121220400
2015112118 27W IN-FA 020 01 285 15 SATL 030
T000 128N 1381E 110 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 095 SE QD 115 SW QD 115 NW QD
T012 140N 1354E 110 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 105 SE QD 120 SW QD 120 NW QD
T024 153N 1334E 105 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 065 SE QD 065 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 110 SE QD 120 SW QD 125 NW QD
T036 165N 1323E 100 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 065 SE QD 065 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 120 SE QD 120 SW QD 125 NW QD
T048 177N 1323E 095 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 065 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 125 SE QD 120 SW QD 120 NW QD
T072 200N 1338E 080 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 125 SE QD 120 SW QD 115 NW QD
T096 226N 1371E 070
T120 259N 1417E 065
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 27W (IN-FA) WARNING NR 020
<rest omitted>

WDPN31 PGTW 212100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 27W (IN-FA) WARNING NR 20//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 27W (IN-FA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 198 NM NORTH OF
YAP, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE SHOWS AN EXPANSION OF
CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM. A
NOTICEABLE WEAKENING OF THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL CAN BE OBSERVED
IN THE EIR IMAGERY. OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD HAVE SHOWN A SLOW WEAKENING TREND, WHICH
MATCHES THE RECENT LOSS OF THE EYE, AS IT HAS BECOME CLOUD-FILLED.
GIVEN THE OBSERVED WEAKENING TREND AND LOSS OF ORGANIZATION IN THE
UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN, THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
DECREASED TO 110 KNOTS. A MINOR INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS
TY 27W TRACKS CLOSER TO THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE NORTH HAS STIFLED STRONGER INTENSIFICATION IN THE LAST SIX
HOURS. THE STR ANCHORED TO THE NORTH REMAINS THE PRIMARY STEERING
INFLUENCE, MAINTAINING THE SYSTEM ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK.
A. THE INTENSITY TREND HAS SHIFTED FROM A MARGINAL INCREASE IN
THE 12 TO 24 HOUR RANGE, TO A STEADY-STATE TREND OVER THE NEXT 12
HOURS WITH THE BEGINNING OF A WEAKENING TREND BEYOND TAU 12. THE
TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED.
B. TY 27W IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
THROUGH TAU 36 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP LAYERED STR
TO THE NORTH. BEYOND THAT, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK MORE POLEWARD AS IT
ROUNDS THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR, AS AN APPROACHING MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH CREATES A WEAKNESS ALONG THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE
STR. A STEADY INCREASE IN VWS WITH A SLOW DECREASE IN SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL START THE WEAKENING TREND OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS AS TY IN-FA TRACKS TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH TAU 36. BEYOND TAU
36, AS THE TRACK TAKES A NORTHEASTERN TURN AROUND THE AXIS OF THE
STR, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY BECOME UNFAVORABLE,
LEADING TO AN INCREASED WEAKENING TREND THROUGH TAU 72.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, TY IN-FA WILL ACCELERATE AS IT
TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST, BEGINNING TO INTERACT WITH THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES. EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE NEAR
TAU 96. HIGH VWS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO ERODE THE SYSTEM THROUGH
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 120, LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI- MODEL
CONSENSUS.//
NNNN
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#126 Postby 1900hurricane » Sat Nov 21, 2015 5:30 pm

In-fa has been dealing with some inner core issues today, maybe resulting from a tongue of dry air getting a wrap into the system from the south. If it can sufficiently recover, the core size will be considerably larger.

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#127 Postby 1900hurricane » Sat Nov 21, 2015 6:49 pm

The core is still in flux, but In-fa is firing off some very cold convection right now.

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#128 Postby supercane » Sat Nov 21, 2015 8:14 pm

WTPQ50 RJTD 220000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1526 IN-FA (1526)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 220000UTC 13.5N 136.6E GOOD
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 230000UTC 15.5N 132.3E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 240000UTC 17.2N 131.2E 110NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 250000UTC 18.0N 131.7E 220NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
96HF 260000UTC 20.5N 134.6E 280NM 70%
MOVE NE 09KT
120HF 270000UTC 22.6N 138.3E 375NM 70%
MOVE ENE 10KT =
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#129 Postby supercane » Sat Nov 21, 2015 8:54 pm

Latest JTWC advisory from 03Z shows continued weakening with initial intensity down to 105kt.
WTPN51 PGTW 220300
WARNING ATCG MIL 27W NWP 151122034014
2015112200 27W IN-FA 021 01 290 16 SATL 030
T000 134N 1366E 105 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 095 SE QD 115 SW QD 115 NW QD
T012 146N 1343E 105 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 105 SE QD 115 SW QD 120 NW QD
T024 159N 1328E 100 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 065 SE QD 065 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 110 SE QD 120 SW QD 120 NW QD
T036 171N 1322E 095 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 065 SE QD 065 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 120 SE QD 120 SW QD 120 NW QD
T048 183N 1325E 080 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 120 SE QD 115 SW QD 115 NW QD
T072 207N 1345E 060 R050 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 095 NE QD 100 SE QD 095 SW QD 090 NW QD
T096 235N 1386E 060
T120 273N 1446E 055
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 27W (IN-FA) WARNING NR 021
<rest omitted>
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Re: WPAC: IN-FA - Typhoon

#130 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 21, 2015 9:30 pm

JTWC at 105kts.

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#131 Postby 1900hurricane » Sat Nov 21, 2015 10:13 pm

The convective pattern is still disorganized. Dry air clearly still has a wrap in the system.
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#132 Postby NotoSans » Sun Nov 22, 2015 5:30 am

Some of the models are now showing an alternative scenario. In-fa will eventually turn southward but not accelerate towards the northeast. Can't understand why JTWC says models are in tight agreement. NAVGEM seems to be the only model supporting their forecast.
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Re: WPAC: IN-FA - Typhoon

#133 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 22, 2015 5:58 am

Image

WDPN31 PGTW 220900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 27W (IN-FA) WARNING NR 22//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 27W (IN-FA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 726 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, JAPAN HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 17
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH GOOD CONVECTIVE
SPIRAL BANDING ALONG THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE
CENTER. THE OVERALL STRUCTURE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE DUE TO INCREASED
PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY CAUSED BY SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT. A 220537Z SSMI 85GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS WELL DEFINED
SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO A COMPACT MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE WHICH
SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE MICROWAVE
IMAGE ALSO FURTHER ILLUSTRATES THE LACK OF CONVECTION ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY. THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN HELD AT 105 KNOTS BASED ON
UNCHANGED CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.5 (102 KNOTS) FROM ALL
AGENCIES. THE CURRENT AND FORECASTED WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
BASED ON A 220056Z ASCAT PASS SHOWING A SMALLER WIND FIELD. THE
CURRENT ENVIRONMENT IS MOSTLY FAVORABLE WITH STRONG DIVERGENT
OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS); HOWEVER, THE INCREASING
PRESSURE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY IS HAMPERING FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION. TY 27W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE DEEP LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 27W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS UNTIL IT REACHES THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE STEERING STR AND
TURNS POLEWARD. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
UNCHANGED, CONTINUING THE SLOW WEAKENING TREND. AFTERWARDS, THE
SYSTEM WILL ROUND THE STR AXIS AND ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. VWS WILL INCREASE DUE TO THE STRONG WESTERLY WINDS
AND AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH; ACCELERATING THE WEAKENING
TREND.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, TY IN-FA WILL CONTINUE ACCELERATING
TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. AS THE
TYPHOON EMBEDS IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW, IT WILL BEGIN
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). TY 27W WILL COMPLETE ETT BY THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A STRONG COLD-CORE LOW. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
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#134 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Nov 22, 2015 8:49 am

Dry air continues to be a dagger into the heart of the system.

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#135 Postby supercane » Sun Nov 22, 2015 9:45 am

WTPQ50 RJTD 221200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1526 IN-FA (1526)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 221200UTC 14.3N 133.8E GOOD
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 231200UTC 16.7N 131.4E 70NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 241200UTC 17.7N 131.6E 160NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 251200UTC 18.3N 131.9E 220NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
96HF 261200UTC 20.4N 134.3E 280NM 70%
MOVE NE 08KT
120HF 271200UTC 22.3N 136.9E 375NM 70%
MOVE NE 08KT =

JTWC 15Z shows continued weakening; now down to 95kt.
WDPN31 PGTW 221500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 27W (IN-FA) WARNING NR 23//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 27W (IN-FA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 734 NM SOUTHWEST
OF IWO TO, JAPAN HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
CONTINUED DETERIORATION TO THE CENTRAL CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AS THE
CORE HAS BECOME ELONGATED DUE TO THE INCREASED PRESSURE AND VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON THE EIR LOOP AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE
IN THE 220947Z SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED DUE TO DECREASING DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES AND SUPPORTS THE DETERIORATION
IN THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. TY 27W IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 27W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS UNTIL IT REACHES THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE STEERING STR.
AFTERWARDS, THE SYSTEM WILL ROUND THE STR AXIS AND ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE AS VWS RAPIDLY INCREASES DUE TO THE
STRONG WESTERLY WINDS AND AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TY IN-FA WILL CONTINUE ACCELERATING
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING STR.
TY 27W WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 96 AS IT
EMBEDS DEEPER INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW AND WILL COMPLETE
ETT BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A STRONG COLD-CORE LOW.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: IN-FA - Typhoon

#136 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 22, 2015 3:51 pm

Down to 90kts.

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Re: WPAC: IN-FA - Typhoon

#137 Postby euro6208 » Sun Nov 22, 2015 4:13 pm

Almost forgot about In-fa... :lol:

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#138 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Nov 22, 2015 8:38 pm

Looks like the dry air tongue got mixed out some, at least for now.

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Re: WPAC: IN-FA - Typhoon

#139 Postby euro6208 » Mon Nov 23, 2015 4:31 am

Image

Starting that much awaited turn...

WDPN31 PGTW 230900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 27W (IN-FA) WARNING NR 26//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 27W (IN-FA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 742 NM SOUTHWEST
OF IWO TO, JAPAN HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
FURTHER ELONGATION TO THE CLOUD STRUCTURE AS THE SYSTEM SLOWS AND
PRESSES AGAINST THE LEADING EDGE OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH. THE TYPHOON HAS REFORMED A 10-NM CLOUD FILLED EYE WHICH
SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE WATER VAPOR
LOOP SHOWS A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL ENHANCED BY THE MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. A 230341Z AMSR-2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS
SHALLOW TIGHT SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO A SMALL MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURE WITH THE BULK OF CONVECTION SHEARED ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN
QUADRANT DUE TO MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN HELD AT 90 KNOTS BASED ON UNCHANGED
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.0 (90 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND RJTD. TY
27W IS APPROACHING THE DEEP LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AXIS
AND HAS STARTED TO TURN MORE POLEWARD.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 27W WILL CONTINUE TO TURN MORE POLEWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS AS IT ROUNDS THE STR AXIS. INCREASING INTERACTION WITH THE
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL LEAD TO A NORTHEASTWARD
ACCELERATION INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
DETERIORATE AS VWS RAPIDLY INCREASES DUE TO THE STRONG WESTERLY
WINDS FROM THE APPROACHING TROUGH. TY IN-FA WILL BEGIN EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) NEAR TAU 72.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TY 27W WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING STR.
TY 27W WILL CONTINUE ETT AS IT EMBEDS DEEPER INTO THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLY FLOW AND WILL COMPLETE ETT BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
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1900hurricane
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#140 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Nov 23, 2015 3:05 pm

In-fa is still firing off some very deep convection, but the system isn't exactly healthy.

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