WPAC: IN-FA - Post-Tropical

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supercane
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#141 Postby supercane » Mon Nov 23, 2015 4:59 pm

WTPQ50 RJTD 231800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1526 IN-FA (1526)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 231800UTC 17.7N 131.4E GOOD
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 241800UTC 19.8N 132.9E 85NM 70%
MOVE NE 07KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 251800UTC 21.7N 135.1E 160NM 70%
MOVE NE 07KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 261800UTC 23.3N 138.9E 220NM 70%
MOVE ENE 10KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
96HF 271800UTC 25.2N 144.7E 280NM 70%
MOVE ENE 14KT
120HF 281800UTC 26.4N 150.6E 375NM 70%
MOVE E 14KT =

WTPN51 PGTW 232100
WARNING ATCG MIL 27W NWP 151123225830
2015112318 27W IN-FA 028 01 015 07 SATL 045
T000 178N 1316E 090 R064 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 080 NW QD
T012 186N 1321E 080 R064 020 NE QD 025 SE QD 015 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 045 SE QD 030 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 090 SE QD 065 SW QD 085 NW QD
T024 193N 1326E 070 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 015 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 045 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 095 SE QD 075 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 205N 1336E 060 R050 030 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 075 SW QD 085 NW QD
T048 223N 1360E 050 R034 095 NE QD 085 SE QD 070 SW QD 080 NW QD
T072 264N 1433E 040 R034 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 065 SW QD 075 NW QD
T096 316N 1576E 035
AMP
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 27W (IN-FA) WARNING NR 028
<rest omitted>

WDPN31 PGTW 232100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 27W (IN-FA) WARNING NR 28//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 27W (IN-FA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 685 NM SOUTHWEST
OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO
DEPICT A WELL-ORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
POSITIONED BENEATH A LARGE, EXPANDING AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. A
231756Z SSMI 85GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE WITH THE BULK
OF DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. HOWEVER,
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT, THE SYSTEM HAS
RETAINED ORGANIZED CORE CONVECTION. OVERALL, THERE IS GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
POSITIONED OVER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM PRODUCING
MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND DIFFLUENT FLOW.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 90 KNOTS BASED ON THE
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AND IS SUPPORTED BY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF T5.0 (90 KNOTS) FROM RJTD AND PGTW. TY 27W HAS ACCELERATED
SLIGHTLY AS IT BEGINS TO ROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 27W WILL CONTINUE TO ROUND THE STR AXIS OVER THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS. INCREASING INTERACTION WITH THE APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH WILL LEAD TO A NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION INTO THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE AS VWS
RAPIDLY INCREASES DUE TO THE STRONG WESTERLY WINDS FROM THE
APPROACHING TROUGH. TY IN-FA WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
(ETT) NEAR TAU 72.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, TY 27W WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING STR.
TY 27W WILL CONTINUE ETT AS IT EMBEDS DEEPER INTO THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLY FLOW AND WILL COMPLETE ETT BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LEADING TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
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#142 Postby supercane » Tue Nov 24, 2015 12:06 am

WTPQ50 RJTD 240000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1526 IN-FA (1526)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 240000UTC 18.5N 132.1E GOOD
MOVE NNE 07KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 250000UTC 20.1N 133.8E 85NM 70%
MOVE NE 06KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 260000UTC 21.7N 136.0E 160NM 70%
MOVE NE 07KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 270000UTC 23.1N 139.2E 220NM 70%
MOVE ENE 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
96HF 280000UTC 25.3N 145.2E 280NM 70%
MOVE ENE 15KT
120HF 290000UTC 26.4N 151.2E 375NM 70%
MOVE E 14KT =

WTPN51 PGTW 240300
WARNING ATCG MIL 27W NWP 151124021552
2015112400 27W IN-FA 029 01 035 11 SATL 030
T000 187N 1323E 085 R064 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 070 SE QD 045 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 115 SE QD 085 SW QD 105 NW QD
T012 200N 1335E 075 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 115 SE QD 090 SW QD 105 NW QD
T024 213N 1351E 065 R050 050 NE QD 045 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 105 SE QD 090 SW QD 095 NW QD
T036 229N 1371E 060 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 075 SW QD 075 NW QD
T048 250N 1406E 050 R034 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD
T072 288N 1491E 040
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 27W (IN-FA) WARNING NR 029
<rest omitted>

WDPN31 PGTW 240300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 27W (IN-FA) WARNING NR 29//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON TY) 27W (IN-FA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 530 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
TIGHTLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE WELL-DEFINED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 232218Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE ALSO
SHOWS AN WELL-ORGANIZED LLCC WITH PERSISTENT CORE CONVECTION AND A
SMALL MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION
WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS AN UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM
PRODUCING MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND
DIFFLUENT FLOW. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 85 KNOTS BASED
ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 77 TO 90 KNOTS. TY 27W
HAS ACCELERATED SLIGHTLY AS IT BEGINS TO ROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 27W WILL CONTINUE TO ROUND THE STR AXIS OVER THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS AND IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AS IT INTERACTS
WITH THE APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. TY IN-FA WILL BEGIN EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) NEAR TAU 48 AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND ENCOUNTER STRONGER VWS. TY 27W WILL CONTINUE
TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
STEERING STR AND IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 72 AS IT EMBEDS
DEEPER INTO THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE SUPPORTING A RE-
CURVE SCENARIO. HOWEVER, JGSM AND JENS NOW INDICATE A RAPID
WEAKENING PHASE AND STALL AS THE SYSTEM REMNANTS STEER UNDER THE
BUILDING LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. ECMWF AND EGRR ALSO RAPIDLY
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM WITH THE REMNANTS TRACKING MORE EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD. CURRENTLY, THE RE-CURVE SCENARIO IS ASSESSED AS THE
MOST PROBABLE TRACK AND, OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: IN-FA - Typhoon

#143 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 24, 2015 5:23 am

Image

WDPN31 PGTW 240900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 27W (IN-FA) WARNING NR 30//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 27W (IN-FA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 564 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO ELONGATE NORTHEASTWARD AND CURVED
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) HAS BECOME MORE SHALLOW. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE
MSI LOOP WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN
OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD AND
REFLECTS THE DETERIORATION IN THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN
AREA OF STRONG (30-40 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE CYCLONE IS
ROUNDING THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY IN-FA WILL TRACK STEADILY NORTHEASTWARD THEN ACCELERATE
AFTER TAU 24 AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. IT WILL
BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) NEAR TAU 36 AS IT ENTERS THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND ENCOUNTERS EVEN STRONGER VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL
COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 72 AND WILL TRANSFORM INTO A GALE-FORCE COLD CORE
LOW BY TAU 72. THERE IS OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE NUMERIC
MODELS, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: IN-FA - Severe Tropical Storm

#144 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 24, 2015 8:31 am

JMA downgrades.

STS 1526 (IN-FA)
Issued at 12:50 UTC, 24 November 2015


<Analyses at 24/12 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N19°10'(19.2°)
E133°40'(133.7°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL60km(30NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more E330km(180NM)
W170km(90NM)

<Forecast for 25/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N20°35'(20.6°)
E136°10'(136.2°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 992hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)

<Forecast for 26/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N22°10'(22.2°)
E139°00'(139.0°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 998hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)

<Forecast for 27/12 UTC>
Intensity -
TD
Center position of probability circle N23°30'(23.5°)
E142°35'(142.6°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 1002hPa
Radius of probability circle 410km(220NM)
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#145 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Nov 24, 2015 9:07 am

In-fa's really fading now in the face of southwesterly shear.
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#146 Postby supercane » Tue Nov 24, 2015 9:23 am

WTPQ50 RJTD 241200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1526 IN-FA (1526) DOWNGRADED FROM TY
ANALYSIS
PSTN 241200UTC 19.2N 133.7E FAIR
MOVE ENE 08KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 30NM
30KT 180NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 251200UTC 20.6N 136.2E 85NM 70%
MOVE ENE 07KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 261200UTC 22.2N 139.0E 160NM 70%
MOVE ENE 08KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 271200UTC 23.5N 142.6E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

WTPN51 PGTW 241500
WARNING ATCG MIL 27W NWP 151124125118
2015112412 27W IN-FA 031 01 065 09 SATL 020
T000 195N 1340E 075 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 105 SE QD 085 SW QD 095 NW QD
T012 204N 1352E 070 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 115 SE QD 090 SW QD 105 NW QD
T024 216N 1369E 065 R050 050 NE QD 045 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 105 SE QD 090 SW QD 095 NW QD
T036 233N 1392E 055 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 075 SW QD 075 NW QD
T048 255N 1430E 050 R034 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD
T072 305N 1528E 040
AMP
036HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 27W (IN-FA) WARNING NR 031
<rest omitted>

WDPN31 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 27W (IN-FA) WARNING NR 31//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 27W (IN-FA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 515 NM SOUTHWEST
OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS THE MAIN CONVECTION IS
SHEARED NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR LOOP AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM A LOW
REFLECTIVITY CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE 240937Z SSMI-S PASS WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL
ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD AND REFLECTS
THE CONTINUED DETERIORATION IN THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN
AREA OF STRONG (30-40 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE CYCLONE IS
TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY IN-FA WILL TRACK STEADILY NORTHEASTWARD THEN ACCELERATE
AFTER TAU 12 AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. IT WILL
BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) NEAR TAU 36 AS IT ENTERS THE
COLD BAROCLINIC ZONE AND ENCOUNTERS EVEN STRONGER VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL TRANSFORM INTO A GALE-FORCE COLD CORE LOW BY TAU 72. THERE IS
OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE NUMERIC MODELS, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
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#147 Postby supercane » Tue Nov 24, 2015 1:53 pm

WTPQ20 RJTD 241800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1526 IN-FA (1526)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 241800UTC 19.4N 134.5E FAIR
MOVE ENE 09KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 30NM
30KT 180NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 251800UTC 21.1N 137.0E 85NM 70%
MOVE NE 07KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 261800UTC 22.8N 140.0E 160NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Most recent JTWC Dvorak classification is T3.5/4.5/W1.5/24HRS
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#148 Postby supercane » Tue Nov 24, 2015 4:32 pm

21Z JTWC advisory joins the downgrade club.
WTPN51 PGTW 242100
WARNING ATCG MIL 27W NWP 151124194617
2015112418 27W IN-FA 032 01 070 06 SATL 030
T000 193N 1341E 060 R050 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 095 NE QD 095 SE QD 065 SW QD 065 NW QD
T012 204N 1356E 050 R034 095 NE QD 095 SE QD 065 SW QD 065 NW QD
T024 218N 1376E 040 R034 085 NE QD 075 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 238N 1407E 035
T048 261N 1450E 030
AMP
012HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
024HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
036HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
048HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 27W (IN-FA) WARNING NR 032
1. TROPICAL STORM 27W (IN-FA) WARNING NR 032
DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 27W
<rest omitted>

WDPN31 PGTW 242100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 27W (IN-FA) WARNING NR
32//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 27W (IN-FA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 519 NM
SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A GENERAL WEAKENING TREND WITH DEEP CONVECTION
SHEARING OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WHILE DECREASING IN AREAL EXTENT. A 241739Z SSMI 85GHZ
COMPOSITE IMAGE SHOWS AN EXPOSED, TIGHTLY-WRAPPED LLCC WITH THE
CENTER LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION,
WHICH PROVIDES GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION. TS 27W IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP SUBTROPICAL TROUGH, WHICH IS PRODUCING STRONG
(30 TO 40 KNOTS) SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND VIGOROUS
POLEWARD VENTING. THIS ENVIRONMENT IS HELPING TO SUSTAIN THE LIMITED
DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED TO 60 KNOTS BASED ON THE
CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE AND DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 55 TO 77
KNOTS. TS 27W IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS IN-FA WILL GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AS IT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD
INTO STRONGER MIDLATITUDE SOUTHWESTERLIES AFTER TAU 12. THE SYSTEM
WILL ALSO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) NEAR TAU 12 AS IT
BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND THE MIDLATITUDE
WESTERLIES. TS 27W SHOULD COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 48 AS IT BECOMES
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE WSETERLIES AND GAINS FRONTAL
CHRACTERISTICS. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LEADING TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: IN-FA - Severe Tropical Storm

#149 Postby euro6208 » Tue Nov 24, 2015 9:09 pm

50 knots....

WDPN31 PGTW 250300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 27W (IN-FA) WARNING NR
33//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 27W (IN-FA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 469 NM
SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
AND A 232204Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE CONTINUE TO SHOW THE DEEP
CONVECTION SHEARED OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI
AND SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE CURRENT STRUCTURE AND
WEAKENING DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES IN-FA IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF STRONG
(30 TO 40 KNOTS) SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND VIGOROUS
POLEWARD OUTFLOW SUSTAINING THE LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. TS 27W IS TRACKING ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS IN-FA WILL REMAIN ON THE NORTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY AS IT
TRACKS INTO STRONGER MIDLATITUDE SOUTHWESTERLIES AFTER TAU 12.
AFTERWARD, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS
IT INTERACTS WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. TS 27W SHOULD COMPLETE ETT BY
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS.
DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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euro6208
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Re: WPAC: IN-FA - Severe Tropical Storm

#150 Postby euro6208 » Wed Nov 25, 2015 2:35 am

In-fa's peak revised from 115 to 120 knots operationally, a category 4.

2715112100 112N1428E 120
2715112100 112N1428E 120
2715112100 112N1428E 120


Image
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#151 Postby supercane » Wed Nov 25, 2015 8:45 pm

Final advisories from JMA and JTWC:
WTPQ20 RJTD 260000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME LOW FORMER TS 1526 IN-FA (1526)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 260000UTC 23N 138E
MOVE NNE 15KT
PRES 1004HPA =

WTPN31 PGTW 260300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 27W (IN-FA) WARNING NR 037
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260000Z --- NEAR 22.6N 138.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 035 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 22.6N 138.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 25.5N 142.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 28 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 28.5N 147.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
260300Z POSITION NEAR 23.3N 139.6E.
TROPICAL STORM 27W (IN-FA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 194 NM
SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A FULLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH LIMITED DEEP
CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE NORTHEAST. IN-FA WILL CONTINUE TRACKING
NORTHEASTWARD DEEPER INTO THE STRONG MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND IS
EXPECTED TO COMPLETE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 12. THIS
IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN
PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260000Z IS 14
FEET.//
NNNN
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