WPAC: IN-FA - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 95W

#21 Postby euro6208 » Mon Nov 16, 2015 3:32 pm

12Z EURO even more stronger, brings a possible 967 mb Cat 2/3 passing over Guam.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 95W

#22 Postby euro6208 » Mon Nov 16, 2015 5:05 pm

Having that feeling of another Paka even though it's only November. :double:

95W APPEARS TO BE GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING...AND THE
FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEEMS LIKELY SOMETIME TODAY OR
TONIGHT. CLOUD-TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED TO -92C NEAR THE
CENTER OF THE CLOUD MASS...INDICATING VERY INTENSE CONVECTION.
MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK...AS BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
MOVE 95W WNW AND TAKE IT OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF GUAM. GFS IS
FASTER...TAKING 95W PAST GUAM ON FRIDAY VERSUS SATURDAY FOR THE
ECMWF. BUT THE ECMWF IS STRONGER...TAKING 95W OVER GUAM AS A LOW-
END TYPHOON WHILE GFS HAS IT BARELY A TROPICAL STORM. THIS FAR
OUT...MUCH COULD CHANGE IN HOW THE MODELS HANDLE 95W...AND
CONFIDENCE IS THEREFORE LOW AT THIS POINT. RESIDENTS OF THE
MARIANAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS THE 95W!
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#23 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Nov 16, 2015 6:56 pm

I'd say a case can be made for an upgrade to a depression right now.

Image

Image

Image
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 95W

#24 Postby euro6208 » Mon Nov 16, 2015 8:09 pm

Right on cue!

Upgraded to the 27th TC of the season!

27W TWENTYSEVEN 151116 1800 4.8N 164.3E WPAC 20 1003
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#25 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Nov 16, 2015 9:55 pm

JMA has also classified this as a depression as of 00Z.
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Re: WPAC: 27W - Tropical Depression

#26 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 16, 2015 10:02 pm

Image

WDPN31 PGTW 170300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (TWENTYSEVEN)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 27W (TWENTYSEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
315 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF POHNPEI, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS DEVELOPING CENTRAL CONVECTION OVER A POORLY DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION IS LOCATED
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. THE CURRENT POSITION IS
BASED ON THE POSITIONING FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD. A RECENT 151927Z
WINDSAT 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SUPPORTS THE POSITIONING OF TD 27W, AND
IS IN AGREEMENT WITH MSI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS BASED
ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 1.5/1.5 FROM PGTW AND AN EARLIER 151233Z
RAPIDSCAT IMAGE SHOWING 20 KNOT WINDS ALONG BOUNDARY OF THE LLCC.
THE RECENT IMPROVEMENTS IN ORGANIZATION SUPPORT THE INCREASE IN
INTENSITY TO 25 KNOTS AT 0000Z.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN AND SETS THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY ON THIS SYSTEM.
B. TD 27W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
WEAK EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR), LOCATED TO THE NORTH
OF GUAM. TD 27W WILL SLOWLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH
FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) (28 TO 29 CELSIUS), UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW BEING SUPPORTED BY A DEVELOPING POINT SOURCE ANTI-
CYCLONE WITH A WEAKENING LINK TO A MID-LATITUDE JET, AND LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) (5 TO 10 KNOTS). THE INTENSIFICATION WILL WEAKEN THE
STR, AND ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE TRACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
AFTER TAU 24 AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH TAU 72.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, TD 27W WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS A MID-
LATITUDE JET TRACKS OVER SOUTHERN JAPAN, WITH A WEAK SOUTHERN JETMAX
ENHANCING THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW FOR THE SYSTEM. THE POINT-SOURCE
ANTI-CYCLONE OVER THE LLCC IS EXPECTED TO BE FULLY DEVELOPED,
ENHANCING THE RADIAL OUTFLOW IN THE REMAINING QUADRANTS. SSTS AND VWS
WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH TAU 120, PROVIDING A STRONGLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT BUT NAVGEM AND COAMPS-TC INDICATE A STRONGER NORTHWARD
TURN IN THE EARLY PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST. THIS FORECAST IS SOUTH
AND FASTER THAN THE CONSENSUS, BUT DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
INITIAL POSITION OF THE SYSTEM AND TRACK SPEEDS, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: 27W - Tropical Depression

#27 Postby euro6208 » Mon Nov 16, 2015 10:06 pm

:uarrow:

Great read. It will be a very interesting days ahead!
Last edited by euro6208 on Mon Nov 16, 2015 10:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#28 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Nov 16, 2015 10:16 pm

4.5*N is way down there.
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Re: WPAC: 27W - Tropical Depression

#29 Postby euro6208 » Mon Nov 16, 2015 10:39 pm

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 170326
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP272015
200 PM CHST TUE NOV 17 2015

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W HAS FORMED NEAR KOSRAE...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR POHNPEI...SAPWUAFIK AND
PAKIN IN POHNPWI STATE.


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR POHNPEI...SAPWUAFIK AND
PAKIN. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
OF 39 TO 73 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...4.7N 162.3E

ABOUT 65 MILES SOUTHWEST OF KOSRAE
ABOUT 320 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF POHNPEI
ABOUT 340 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PAKIN
ABOUT 345 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAPWUAFIK
ABOUT 1335 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN AND
ABOUT 1340 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...260 DEGREES AT 16 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 4.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 162.3
DEGREES EAST...MOVING WESTWARD AT 16 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W WILL
INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W AT 500 PM FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
SCHEDULED ADVISORY ISSUED AT 800 PM.

$$

SIMPSON
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#30 Postby supercane » Mon Nov 16, 2015 11:53 pm

As 1900hurricane mentioned JMA has this as a non-advisory TD:
WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA
AT 04.1N 162.5E MARSHALLS MOVING WESTSOUTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

The last METAR from Kosrae (PTSA) not particularly exciting with light southerly winds and pressure near 1007mb:
PTSA 170150Z 17009KT 10SM SCT016 BKN130 OVC300 28/23 A2973 LAST
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Re: WPAC: 27W - Tropical Depression

#31 Postby euro6208 » Tue Nov 17, 2015 3:28 am

000
WWPQ80 PGUM 170717
SPSPQ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
500 PM CHST TUE NOV 17 2015

PMZ172-173-174-171000-
CHUUK-POHNPEI-KOSRAE-
500 PM CHST TUE NOV 17 2015

...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NEAR KOSRAE NOW TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W...

AT 400 PM CHST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W
WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR 4.2N 161.7E WHICH IS ABOUT 115 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF KOSRAE AND 305 MILES SOUTHEAST OF POHNPEI. TD 27W IS
MOVING TOWARDS THE WEST AT 20 MPH AND IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST OVER NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS...WHILE INTENSIFYING INTO A
TROPICAL STORM. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION...SEE BULLETINS ISSUED BY
THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER UNDER WMO HEADER WTPN31.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND WINDS AT OR NEAR TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY
ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE PATH OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS IT MAKES
ITS WAY THROUGH SOUTHERN POHNPEI STATE AND INTO EASTERN CHUUK STATE
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. COMBINED SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 8 TO 12
FEET OR HIGHER AS THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION INTENSIFIES. OBSERVATIONS
IN THE AREA CURRENTLY SHOW THE STRONGEST CONDITIONS ARE WITHIN 100
MILES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

RESIDENTS OF KOSRAE...POHNPEI AND CHUUK STATES SHOULD MONITOR THIS
SITUATION AND PAY ATTENTION TO THE LATEST STATEMENTS AND FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GUAM AND YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICES AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCIES. THIS WILL BE THE
LAST SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (WWPQ80 PGUM) ISSUED BY WFO GUAM AS
DISCUSSIONS ARE NOW BEING ISSUED UNDER THE TROPICAL ADVISORY
BULLETINS...WMO HEADER WTPQ31 PGUM (AWIPS HEADER GUMTCPPQ1) AND IN
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE LOCAL STATEMENTS UNDER WMO HEADER WTPQ81 PGUM
(AWIPS HEADER GUMHLSPQ1).

$$

EDSON
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Re: WPAC: 27W - Tropical Depression

#32 Postby euro6208 » Tue Nov 17, 2015 3:33 am

Looking very impressive and looks to be rapidly organizing this far south.

Image
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Re: WPAC: 27W - Tropical Depression

#33 Postby euro6208 » Tue Nov 17, 2015 3:43 am

Upgraded to the 25th tropical storm of this season!

27W TWENTYSEVE 151117 0600 4.1N 161.6E WPAC 35 996
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Re: WPAC: 27W - Tropical Depression

#34 Postby euro6208 » Tue Nov 17, 2015 5:05 am

WDPN31 PGTW 170900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 27W (TWENTYSEVEN)
WARNING NR 02//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 27W (TWENTYSEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 264
NM SOUTHEAST OF POHNPEI, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATED LLCC WITH
DEEPENING CENTRAL CONVECTION, SPECIFICALLY ON THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE SYSTEM. THE WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS NEAR RADIAL
OUTFLOW AND A 170348Z N-19 IMAGE SHOWS GOOD CURVED CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED
ON THE AFOREMENTIONED SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE AND THE
INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 35 KNOTS BASED ON IMPROVED OVERALL
CONVECTION AND STRUCTURE AND SUPPORTED BY SATCON ESTIMATE OF 34
KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS SOUTH OF THE STR
EXTENSION WITH GOOD DIFFLUENCE AND VERY LOW VWS.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 27W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING TO THE NORTHWEST
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE STEERED BY
THE STR EXTENSION. AS THIS EXTENSION DISSIPATES AND TRACKS TO THE
EAST SLIGHTLY, TS 27 WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS,
WITH ONLY MARGINAL INTENSIFICATION. BEYOND TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP AT AN AVERAGE RATE AS THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT BECOMES
MORE FAVORABLE, ALLOWING FOR AN INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS BY TAU 72. AN
ALTERNATE FORECAST SCENARIO IS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL INCREASE AT A
MUCH FASTER RATE AS CURRENT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE
FOR INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER, MODELS DO NOT CURRENTLY REFLECT THAT
SCENARIO.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO
THE NORTHWEST AS THE STR BUILDS TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. CONTINUED
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED WITH TS 27W REACHING 85 KNOTS BY THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE THERE IS LIMITED MODEL GUIDANCE, THE
TRACKS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST DUE TO THE LACK OF MODELS
AVAILABLE.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: 27W - Tropical Depression

#35 Postby euro6208 » Tue Nov 17, 2015 5:14 am

Image

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 170947
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM 27W ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP272015
800 PM CHST TUE NOV 17 2015

...27W NOW A TROPICAL STORM...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SAPWUAFIK IN POHNPEI
STATE.


A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NUKUORO IN POHNPEI
STATE AND LUKUNOR...LOSAP...CHUUK AND FANANU IN CHUUK STATE.


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR SAPWUAFIK. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR NUKUORO IN POHNPEI STATE
AND LUKUNOR...LOSAP...CHUUK AND FANANU IN CHUUK STATE. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR POHNPEI AND PAKIN.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
OF 39 TO 73 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...4.3N 160.3E

ABOUT 240 MILES SOUTHEAST OF POHNPEI AND PAKIN
ABOUT 230 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAPWUAFIK
ABOUT 365 MILES EAST OF NUKUORO
ABOUT 445 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF LUKUNOR
ABOUT 550 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF LOSAP
ABOUT 620 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK
ABOUT 635 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF FANANU
ABOUT 1240 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 1235 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...270 DEGREES AT 22 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM 27W WAS
LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 4.3 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
160.3 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST AT 22 MPH. THIS POSITION REFLECTS
A RELOCATION FARTHER WEST THAN THE JTWC WARNING POSITION. TS 27W
HAS MOVED FASTER TOWARD THE WEST THAN ANTICIPATED DURING THE PAST
3 TO 6 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM 27W IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT DROP IN FORWARD SPEED OVER
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES FROM THE CENTER.
TROPICAL STORM 27W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 1100 PM CHST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY
AT 200 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING.

$$

M AYDLETT/GUARD/EDSON
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Re: WPAC: 27W - Tropical Depression

#36 Postby euro6208 » Tue Nov 17, 2015 5:55 am

Recap of the models...

12Z JMA keeps this weak as it passes south of Guam.

00Z NAVGEM shifted south, takes In-fa over Rota as a 980 mb typhoon. Previous runs had it passing over and north of Saipan.

CMC has been back and forth taking this north of Guam or Saipan but 00Z is now taking a typhoon south of Guam similiar to EURO.
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Re: WPAC: 27W - Tropical Depression

#37 Postby euro6208 » Tue Nov 17, 2015 6:03 am

00Z EURO is slightly more south, spares Guam a direct hit from previous runs.

06Z GFS strongest run ever. Brings a 968 mb In-fa passing south of Guam.
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#38 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Nov 17, 2015 6:03 am

JMA is expecting to name 27W In-fa later today.

TD
Issued at 09:45 UTC, 17 November 2015

<Analyses at 17/09 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N4°30'(4.5°)
E160°55'(160.9°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 1004hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)

<Forecast for 18/09 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N5°55'(5.9°)
E157°00'(157.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 220km(120NM)
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#39 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Nov 17, 2015 6:19 am

I'd lean more aggressive than JTWC wrt forecast intensity. 27W is well shrouded in a deep moisture envelope and is already displaying a good outflow pattern. The only negative right now is the unusually low latitude, but that hasn't seemed overly detrimental up to this point.

Image

Image
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#40 Postby NotoSans » Tue Nov 17, 2015 6:45 am

IMO it's a TS already. waiting for the latest ASCAT pass to confirm this.
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