WPAC: IN-FA - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: IN-FA - Tropical Storm

#61 Postby euro6208 » Wed Nov 18, 2015 3:01 am

4.0 from PGTW and KNES.

TPPN10 PGTW 180554

A. TROPICAL STORM 27W (IN-FA)

B. 18/0530Z

C. 5.76N

D. 155.70E

E. THREE/HMWRI8

F. T4.0/4.0/D2.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 15A/PBO TIGHTLY CURVED BNDG/ANMTN. LLCC EMBEDDED IN
DG YIELDS A DT OF 4.0. PT AGREES WITH DT, WHILE MET YIELDS A
3.5. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


CHAPPOTIN

TXPQ29 KNES 180315
TCSWNP

A. 27W (NONAME)

B. 18/0232Z

C. 5.7N

D. 156.3E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T4.0/4.0/D2.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM AT 18/0232Z CHARACTERIZED BY OW EYE EMBEDDED IN
DG AND SURROUNDED BY A LG RING FOR A DT OF 4.5 WITH NO EYE ADJUSTMENT
REQUIRED. MET IS 3.5 AND PT IS 4.0. FT OF 4.0 IS BASED ON 6HR AVERAGING
SINCE CONSTRAINTS LIMITED THE INCREASE IN FT OVER 6 AND 12-HR PERIODS
TO 1.0 AND 1.5 RESPECTIVELY.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL
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Re: WPAC: IN-FA - Tropical Storm

#62 Postby euro6208 » Wed Nov 18, 2015 3:05 am

Ramping up fast!

27W IN-FA 151118 0600 5.8N 155.8E WPAC 65 974

It's quite small so it's likely being underestimated big time.

Image
Image
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Re: WPAC: IN-FA - Tropical Storm

#63 Postby euro6208 » Wed Nov 18, 2015 3:10 am

A TYPHOON WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR FANANU IN CHUUK STATE. A TYPHOON
WARNING MEANS THAT TYPHOON FORCE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.


A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR SAPWUAFIK IN POHNPEI STATE
AND FOR CHUUK LAGOON...LOSAP AND LUKUNOR IN CHUUK STATE. TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS OR ARE
ALREADY OCCURRING.


A TYPHOON WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR CHUUK LAGOON...LOSAP AND ULUL IN
CHUUK STATE. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR POHNPEI...PAKIN AND NUKUORO
IN POHNPEI STATE...AND FOR POLOWAT IN CHUUK STATE. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
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Re: WPAC: IN-FA - Tropical Storm

#64 Postby euro6208 » Wed Nov 18, 2015 4:31 am

Brings a category 3 In-fa passing a bit more south of Guam and slams Chuuk as a Category 2 typhoon...

WDPN31 PGTW 180900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 27W (IN-FA) WARNING NR 06//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 27W (IN-FA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 158 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF POHNPEI, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWED A BRIEF EYE FEATURE THAT HAS
SINCE BECOME CLOUD-FILLED. TY 27W CONTINUES TO HAVE VISIBLE RADIAL
OUTFLOW. A 180600Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE REVEALS A SOLID MICROWAVE EYE
WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION CONCENTRATED ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE
LLCC. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN RAISED TO 65 KNOTS TO
REFLECT THE BETTER STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM AS WELL AS A DT OF 4.0
FROM PGTW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW VWS
OVER THE LLCC THAT SUPPORTS THE STEADY DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO TRACK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR EXTENSION TO THE
NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 27W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT
36 HOURS AND CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN OVERALL FAVORABLE THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD. BEYOND TAU 36, THE
STR WILL DEEPEN AND FLATTEN TO THE NORTH OF TY 27W, FORCING THE
SYSTEM TO TAKE A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK. AT THIS TIME, TY IN-FA
WILL SLOW ITS RATE OF INTENSIFICATION AS THE OUTFLOW MECHANISMS WILL
BE SLIGHTLY HAMPERED DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE DEEP STR TO THE
NORTH. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT DUE TO THE CURRENT HIGHLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, TY IN-FA MAY INCREASE ITS INTENSITY AT A
MORE RAPID RATE; HOWEVER, MODELS DO NOT CURRENTLY REFLECT THAT
SCENARIO.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, TY IN-FA WILL TRACK MORE POLEWARD AS A MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH WILL CREATE A WEAKNESS IN THE STR. THE SYSTEM WILL
ROUND THIS RIDGE AXIS AND BEGIN ITS TURN. INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN ITS PEAK OF 11O KNOTS THROUGH THIS PERIOD UNTIL TY 27W WILL
REGAIN ITS POLEWARD OUTFLOW BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE THE
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT, THERE IS AN
INCREASING SPREAD WITH REGARD TO NORTH-SOUTH EXTENT BEGINNING PAST
TAU 48. AS SUCH, THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK, WHICH IS PLACED NEAR, BUT SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: IN-FA - Tropical Storm

#65 Postby euro6208 » Wed Nov 18, 2015 4:40 am

EURO trending south away from Guam.

Image

Recurves.

Image

00Z is slightly more south of Guam than 18Z but still brings a powerful typhoon near the area.

Image
Image
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Re: WPAC: IN-FA - Tropical Storm

#66 Postby euro6208 » Wed Nov 18, 2015 4:57 am

Image

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 180946
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TYPHOON IN-FA (27W) ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP272015
800 PM CHST WED NOV 18 2015

...TROPICAL STORM IN-FA UPGRADED TO TYPHOON IN-FA...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
A TYPHOON WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR CHUUK LAGOON AND LOSAP IN
CHUUK STATE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ULUL IN CHUUK STATE.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS CANCELED FOR SAPWUAFIK IN POHNPEI
STATE.

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS CANCELED FOR POHNPEI...PAKIN AND NUKUORO
IN POHNPEI STATE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR CHUUK LAGOON...LOSAP AND FANANU IN
CHUUK STATE. A TYPHOON WARNING MEANS THAT TYPHOON FORCE WINDS OF 74 MPH
OR MORE ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ULUL AND LUKUNOR IN CHUUK STATE.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ULUL IN CHUUK STATE. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS
OF 74 MPH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PULUWAT IN CHUUK STATE.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...6.1N 155.2E

ABOUT 90 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF LUKUNOR
ABOUT 215 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF POHNPEI
ABOUT 180 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF LOSAP
ABOUT 245 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK
ABOUT 275 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FANANU
ABOUT 415 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ULUL
ABOUT 425 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PULUWAT
ABOUT 885 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GUAM AND SAIPAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON IN-FA WAS
LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 6.1 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
155.2 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST AT 12 MPH. TYPHOON IN-FA IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE IN THIS DIRECTION WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS TRACK TAKES IN-FA VERY CLOSE TO LOSAP AND CHUUK
LAGOON LATE TONIGHT AND BEFORE NOON ON THURSDAY...RESPECTIVELY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 75 MPH. IN-FA IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATE THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER AND 125 MILES ELSEWHERE.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 1100 PM CHST...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT
200 AM EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

$$

MILLER/M. AYDLETT/EDSON
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Re: WPAC: IN-FA - Tropical Storm

#67 Postby euro6208 » Wed Nov 18, 2015 5:57 am

Typhoons this far south is not uncommon but i've never seen a typhoon this small this far south. Typhoon force winds must be very small around that eye.

Likely underestimated big time as dvorak and ADT is poor on this.

Image
Image
Image
Image
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#68 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Nov 18, 2015 11:28 am

Not exactly sure what has happened structurally. The latest GPM pass makes me think it's probably just a minor setback for In-fa, but in the near term, I support dropping the intensity back below typhoon strength.

Image

Image
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Re: WPAC: IN-FA - Severe Tropical Storm

#69 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 18, 2015 2:27 pm

STS 1526 (IN-FA)
Issued at 18:45 UTC, 18 November 2015


<Analyses at 18/18 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N6°50'(6.8°)
E153°50'(153.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL220km(120NM)

<Forecast for 19/18 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N9°05'(9.1°)
E150°05'(150.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area ALL200km(110NM)

<Forecast for 20/18 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N10°25'(10.4°)
E146°10'(146.2°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area ALL300km(160NM)

<Forecast for 21/18 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N12°00'(12.0°)
E140°50'(140.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure 945hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(90kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65m/s(130kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)
Storm warning area ALL520km(280NM)

<Forecast for 22/18 UTC>
Center position of probability circle N14°30'(14.5°)
E135°50'(135.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25km/h(14kt)
Radius of probability circle 440km(240NM)

<Forecast for 23/18 UTC>
Center position of probability circle N17°35'(17.6°)
E133°10'(133.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20km/h(10kt)
Radius of probability circle 560km(300NM)


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Re: WPAC: IN-FA - Severe Tropical Storm

#70 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 18, 2015 2:59 pm

JTWC warning at 21:00 UTC down to Tropical Storm at 55kts but is forecast to reach 100kts as peak after it moves south of Guam.You can see clearly the big recurving track at the end.


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Re: WPAC: IN-FA - Severe Tropical Storm

#71 Postby euro6208 » Wed Nov 18, 2015 3:26 pm

WDPN31 PGTW 182100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 27W (IN-FA)
WARNING NR 08//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 27W (IN-FA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 128 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK, FSM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS SLIGHTLY WEAKENED OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS AS EVIDENCED BY FRAGMENTING CONVECTION WITH WARMING
TOPS ON THE EIR LOOP. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR
ANIMATION AND SUPPORTED BY A 181618Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE PASS WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL
ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD AND REFLECTS
THE WEAKENED STATE OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
CYCLONE IS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
AND GOOD NORTHEASTWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THERE IS
SUBSIDENCE OCCURRING ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY, AS EVIDENT ON
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE AT 29-30 DEGREES CELSIUS. TS 27W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 27W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND WILL
GRADUALLY RE-INTENSIFY AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE,
REACHING 100 KNOTS BY TAU 72.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, TS IN-FA WILL TRACK MORE POLEWARD AS A MINOR
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CREATES A WEAKNESS IN THE STR AND THE SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN TO ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS. THE INITIAL EXPOSURE TO THE STRONG
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES WILL INITIALLY ENHANCE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND
SUSTAIN THE PEAK INTENSITY UP TO TAU 96. AFTERWARDS, INCREASING VWS
WILL BEGIN TO ERODE THE SYSTEM. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SOME SPREADING AT THE END OF THE FORECAST TRACK.
IN VIEW OF THIS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST
UP TO TAU 96 ONLY.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: IN-FA - Severe Tropical Storm

#72 Postby euro6208 » Wed Nov 18, 2015 3:26 pm

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 18 NOV 2015 Time : 193000 UTC
Lat : 6:51:12 N Lon : 153:42:28 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.0 /1004.0mb/ 45.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.9 3.0 3.0

Center Temp : -39.4C Cloud Region Temp : -41.4C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 72km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 16.9 degrees
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Re: WPAC: IN-FA - Severe Tropical Storm

#73 Postby euro6208 » Wed Nov 18, 2015 3:30 pm

000
WTPQ81 PGUM 181711
HLSPQ1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TYPHOON IN-FA (27W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
311 AM CHST THU NOV 19 2015

...TYPHOON IN-FA APPROACHING LOSAP...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE ON CHUUK...FANANU...LOSAP...ULUL...PULUWAT AND LUKUNOR
IN CHUUK STATE.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CHUUK LAGOON...LOSAP AND
FANANU IN CHUUK STATE. TYPHOON CONDITIONS INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE
WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A TYPHOON WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
ULUL IN CHUUK STATE. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS INCLUDING DAMAGING
WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS...AND TYPHOON
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LUKUNOR IN CHUUK
STATE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE STILL IN PROGRESS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PULUWAT IN CHUUK STATE.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...6.5N 154.2E

ABOUT 65 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LUKUNOR
ABOUT 275 MILES WEST OF POHNPEI
ABOUT 105 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF LOSAP
ABOUT 170 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK
ABOUT 205 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FANANU
ABOUT 340 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ULUL
ABOUT 355 MILES EAST OF PULUWAT

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TYPHOON IN-FA CONTINUES TOWARD LOSAP...AND ON A TRACK TO PASS
JUST NORTH OF CHUUK LAGOON THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDS OVER CHUUK LAGOON AND POHNPEI...
AND CONVECTION NEAR THE CORE JUST EAST OF LOSAP. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS REMAIN 75 MPH. FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

...LUKUNOR...
.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE TYPHOON CENTER MAKING ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO LUKUNOR
ABOUT 65 MILES TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. LUKUNOR IS ALONG THE EDGE
OF THE DAMAGING TROPICAL FORCE WINDS WHICH ARE OCCURRING NOW. BE
SAFE AND STAY PROTECTED FROM FLYING OBJECTS. LISTEN TO
INSTRUCTIONS AND UPDATES FROM YOUR LOCAL LEADERS. DO NOT ATTEMPT
INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED.

...WIND INFORMATION...
WEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WILL CONTINUE
EARLY THIS MORNING. STRONGER GUSTS TO 50 MPH IN THE HEAVIEST
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
BY LATE MORNING AND SUBSIDE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
COMBINED SEAS WILL PEAK EARLY THIS MORNING BETWEEN 11 AND 16 FEET
WITH DANGEROUS SURF OF 12 TO 17 FEET. INUNDATION OF 1 TO 2 FEET
IS POSSIBLE ON WINDWARD EXPOSURES.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

...LOSAP AND CHUUK LAGOON...
.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A TYPHOON WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR LOSAP AND CHUUK LAGOON.
EMERGENCY PROCEDURES AND ANY REQUIRED SHELTERING SHOULD BE
COMPLETE. DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE WILL BEGIN SOON...OR
HAVE ALREADY STARTED AT LOSAP...AND BY DAWN FOR CHUUK LAGOON.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN 75 MPH BUT COULD STILL INTENSIFY
FURTHER TODAY. ANY NEAR OR DIRECT PASSAGE OF THE EYE WILL BRING
CATEGORY 1 TYPHOON STRENGTH DAMAGE TO THESE ISLANDS. AVOID AREAS
OF POTENTIAL MUDSLIDES AND COASTAL INUNDATION. DO NOT ATTEMPT INTER-
ISLAND TRAVEL. LISTEN TO FURTHER INSTRUCTIONS AND UPDATES FROM
YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.

...WIND INFORMATION...
DAMAGING NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 45 MPH EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL BUILD TO TYPHOON FORCE LATER THIS MORNING AT LOSAP...
AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AT CHUUK LAGOON. AS THE EYE NEARS...WEST
WINDS WILL BUILD TO 65 TO 75 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 90 MPH. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND THEN SOUTH BY LATE THIS EVENING
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF IN-FA.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
COMBINED SEAS WILL BUILD TO BETWEEN 14 AND 20 FEET LATE THIS
MORNING PRODUCING HAZARDOUS SURF OF 16 TO 24 FEET. INUNDATION OF
2 TO 4 FEET IS POSSIBLE ON WINDWARD EXPOSURES.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL OF 6 TO 10 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

&&

...FANANU...
.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A TYPHOON WARNING IS IN EFFECT. MAKE SURE THERE IS ADEQUATE FOOD
AND DRINKING WATER AVAILABLE IN A STURDY SHELTER LOCATED AWAY FROM
THE SHORE. PROTECT PROPERTIES AGAINST COASTAL INUNDATION...HEAVY
RAIN AND STRONG WINDS. DO NOT ATTEMPT ANY INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL. LISTEN
TO INSTRUCTIONS AND UPDATES FROM YOUR LOCAL LEADERS. IN PARTICULAR
LISTEN FOR ANY CHANGES IN MOTION OR SPEED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST
TRACK. THE CURRENT FORECAST BRINGS IN-FA SOUTH OF FANANU LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.

...WIND INFORMATION...
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH THIS
MORNING WILL BUILD TO BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45
MPH LATE THIS MORNING. DEPENDING UPON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE
TYPHOON...DAMAGING NORTHEAST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND
BUILD TO TYPHOON FORCE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH AND DECREASE LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
COMBINED SEAS WILL BUILD TO BETWEEN 12 AND 18 FEET THIS MORNING
PRODUCING DANGEROUS SURF OF 14 TO 20 FEET. INUNDATION OF 2 TO 3
FEET IS POSSIBLE ON WINDWARD EXPOSURES.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL OF 6 TO 10 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

&&

...ULUL...
.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A TYPHOON WATCH ARE IN EFFECT. IF
THE STORM TRACK MOVES CLOSER TO ULUL A TYPHOON WARNING MAY BE
NECESSARY LATER THIS MORNING. REVIEW EMERGENCY AND SHELTERING
PROCEDURES. MAKE SURE THERE IS ADEQUATE FOOD AND DRINKING WATER
AVAILABLE IN A SHELTER LOCATED AWAY FROM THE SHORE. PROTECT
PROPERTIES AGAINST COASTAL INUNDATION...HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS. DO NOT ATTEMPT ANY INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL. LISTEN TO
INSTRUCTIONS AND UPDATES FROM YOUR LEADERS. IN PARTICULAR LISTEN
FOR ANY CHANGES IN MOTION OR SPEED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK.

...WIND INFORMATION...
WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN
HEAVY SHOWERS THIS MORNING. DAMAGING NORTH WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH
ARE LIKELY AS THE STORM APPROACHES THIS EVENING AND FRIDAY
MORNING. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IF IN-FA TRACKS FARTHER
SOUTH THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
COMBINED SEAS WILL BUILD TO BETWEEN 12 AND 18 FEET BY THIS
AFTERNOON...PRODUCING HAZARDOUS SURF OF 12 TO 18 FEET. INUNDATION
OF 2 TO 3 FEET IS POSSIBLE ON WINDWARD EXPOSURES.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL OF 5 TO 10 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY.

...PULUWAT...
.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PULUWAT. REVIEW
EMERGENCY PROCEDURES AND LISTEN TO ANY UPDATES FROM EMERGENCY
OFFICIALS. DO NOT ATTEMPT INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL UNTIL TYPHOON
IN-FA PASSES WELL TO THE NORTHWEST. SET ASIDE ENOUGH FOOD AND
WATER FOR SEVERAL DAYS. IN-FA IS EXPECTED TO PASS WELL TO THE
NORTH THURSDAY...BUT DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IF THE STORM
TRACKS FARTHER SOUTH.

...WIND INFORMATION...
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WILL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST TODAY AND INCREASE TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 40 MPH. WINDS WILL DECREASE LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
COMBINED SEAS WILL BUILD TO BETWEEN 8 AND 11 FEET TODAY...WHICH
WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS SURF OF 9 TO 12 FEET MAINLY ON NORTH AND
WEST FACING REEFS AND BEACHES. MINOR INUNDATION AROUND 1 FOOT IS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL OF 4 TO 8 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 900 AM.

$$

M.AYDLETT
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Re:

#74 Postby euro6208 » Wed Nov 18, 2015 3:52 pm

1900hurricane wrote:Not exactly sure what has happened structurally. The latest GPM pass makes me think it's probably just a minor setback for In-fa, but in the near term, I support dropping the intensity back below typhoon strength.





Looks like dry air got entrained into the system.
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Re: WPAC: IN-FA - Severe Tropical Storm

#75 Postby euro6208 » Wed Nov 18, 2015 4:18 pm

Recap of the warninings and watches...

Image
Image
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Re: WPAC: IN-FA - Tropical Storm

#76 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 18, 2015 8:19 pm

Down to Tropical Storm from JMA.

TS 1526 (IN-FA)
Issued at 00:50 UTC, 19 November 2015


<Analyses at 19/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N8°10'(8.2°)
E152°40'(152.7°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 992hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL220km(120NM)

<Forecast for 20/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N9°25'(9.4°)
E148°50'(148.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)

<Forecast for 21/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N10°50'(10.8°)
E144°10'(144.2°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area ALL330km(180NM)

<Forecast for 22/00 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N12°40'(12.7°)
E138°35'(138.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30km/h(15kt)
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)
Storm warning area ALL500km(270NM)

<Forecast for 23/00 UTC>
Center position of probability circle N15°50'(15.8°)
E134°20'(134.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 25km/h(13kt)
Radius of probability circle 440km(240NM)

<Forecast for 24/00 UTC>
Center position of probability circle N19°10'(19.2°)
E133°35'(133.6°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15km/h(9kt)
Radius of probability circle 560km(300NM)

Image
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#77 Postby supercane » Wed Nov 18, 2015 9:04 pm

00Z advisories:
WTPN51 PGTW 190300
WARNING ATCG MIL 27W NWP 151119011753
2015111900 27W IN-FA 009 01 310 13 SATL 020
T000 075N 1529E 055 R050 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 065 NE QD 075 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD
T012 085N 1510E 060 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 085 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 093N 1492E 075 R064 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 105 SW QD 105 NW QD
T036 100N 1469E 085 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 050 SE QD 055 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 110 SE QD 115 SW QD 115 NW QD
T048 109N 1443E 095 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 115 SE QD 115 SW QD 120 NW QD
T072 132N 1390E 095 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 115 SE QD 120 SW QD 125 NW QD
T096 164N 1354E 090
T120 202N 1348E 080
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 27W (IN-FA) WARNING NR 009
<rest omitted>

WTPQ50 RJTD 190000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1526 IN-FA (1526) DOWNGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 190000UTC 08.2N 152.7E GOOD
MOVE NW 13KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 120NM
FORECAST
24HF 200000UTC 09.4N 148.8E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 210000UTC 10.8N 144.2E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 220000UTC 12.7N 138.6E 210NM 70%
MOVE WNW 15KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
96HF 230000UTC 15.8N 134.3E 240NM 70%
MOVE NW 13KT
120HF 240000UTC 19.2N 133.6E 300NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT =
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#78 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Nov 18, 2015 10:41 pm

Not exactly sure what to make of In-fa right now. The central convective cluster has become rather cold, but remains very small. Low level structure remains fantastic, so I do think it is possible that In-fa could start going up fast again once darkness returns, but I'd love to see the CDO start to expand in some fashion before I'm confident in such an assessment.

Image

Image
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#79 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Nov 19, 2015 8:56 am

Well, looks like my hunch above might verify. In-fa's CDO has both expanded and cooled, and it now has the traditional Western Pacific band wrapping the western side of the circulation. Based on how organized the circulation has been, I'd be surprised at this point if In-fa is about to bomb or already in the early stages of doing so.

Image
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#80 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Nov 19, 2015 8:59 am

And I just now looked at Dvorak imagery. Oh boy, it has begun.

Image
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