WPAC: IN-FA - Post-Tropical

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#81 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Nov 19, 2015 9:05 am

Looks to be a typhoon again to me and likely in the RI phase.
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Re: WPAC: IN-FA - Severe Tropical Storm

#82 Postby cycloneye » Thu Nov 19, 2015 9:13 am

JTWC is up to Typhoon.

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#83 Postby NotoSans » Thu Nov 19, 2015 9:25 am

Seems like a pinhole eye is popping out. Typical RI phase has probably commenced and the official forecast may be on the low end.
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#84 Postby supercane » Thu Nov 19, 2015 9:51 am

12Z advisories upgrading with JMA back to STS and JTWC to typhoon:
WTPQ50 RJTD 191200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1526 IN-FA (1526) UPGRADED FROM TS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 191200UTC 09.2N 150.4E GOOD
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 120NM
FORECAST
24HF 201200UTC 10.5N 146.4E 75NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 211200UTC 12.0N 141.1E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 221200UTC 14.6N 136.1E 210NM 70%
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
96HF 231200UTC 17.2N 133.5E 240NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
120HF 241200UTC 20.2N 134.9E 300NM 70%
MOVE NNE 08KT =

WTPN51 PGTW 191500
WARNING ATCG MIL 27W NWP 151119132739
2015111912 27W IN-FA 011 01 290 11 SATL 030
T000 091N 1503E 065 R050 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 085 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 085 NW QD
T012 099N 1482E 075 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 085 NW QD
T024 107N 1459E 090 R064 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 105 NW QD
T036 115N 1432E 105 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 115 SE QD 115 SW QD 125 NW QD
T048 125N 1405E 110 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 120 SE QD 120 SW QD 135 NW QD
T072 147N 1353E 110 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 120 SE QD 120 SW QD 135 NW QD
T096 177N 1328E 090
T120 209N 1346E 065
AMP
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 27W (IN-FA) WARNING NR 011
<rest omitted>

WDPN31 PGTW 191500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 27W (IN-FA) WARNING NR 11//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 27W (IN-FA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 421 NM SOUTHEAST
OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A CONSOLIDATING, COMPACT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
OBSCURED BENEATH A DEVELOPING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. A 191122Z
METOP-B 89GHZ IMAGE INDICATES THAT THE CENTER IS POSITIONED ON THE
WESTERN EDGE OF A DEEP CONVECTIVE BAND, WHICH IS LOCATED OVER THE
EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS
BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND
KNES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. TS
27W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 27W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 72 UNDER THE DOMINANT STR, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH. TY 27W IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN RELATIVELY
FAST TRACK SPEEDS THROUGH TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72. MODEL SPREAD AT CPA (TAU 30) WITH
GUAM IS ABOUT 80 NM, THEREFORE, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
EXACT CPA DISTANCE AND TIMING. TY 27W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH TAU 48 TO A PEAK OF 110 KNOTS.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TY 27W WILL BEGIN SLOWING AS IT BEGINS
TO RE-CURVE POLEWARD IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE
TROUGH. EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE NEAR TAU
108 AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. THIS INTERACTION SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WHICH WILL SERVE TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES AFTER TAU 72 DUE TO DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
MODELS IN THE TIMING AND DEGREE OF THE RE-CURVE, WHICH IS TYPICAL IN
THIS SCENARIO, THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: IN-FA - Severe Tropical Storm

#85 Postby supercane » Thu Nov 19, 2015 2:10 pm

18Z JMA update has In-fa close to typhoon status, passing well south of Guam in 24hr and strengthening to a powerful typhoon in 2 days:
WTPQ50 RJTD 191800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1526 IN-FA (1526)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 191800UTC 09.8N 149.4E GOOD
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 30NM
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 201800UTC 10.9N 145.1E 75NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
48HF 211800UTC 12.5N 139.5E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 221800UTC 15.3N 134.7E 210NM 70%
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
96HF 231800UTC 17.5N 132.8E 240NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
120HF 241800UTC 20.4N 135.6E 300NM 70%
MOVE NE 10KT =
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Re: WPAC: IN-FA - Severe Tropical Storm

#86 Postby cycloneye » Thu Nov 19, 2015 2:40 pm

JTWC up to 75kts.

Image

WDPN31 PGTW 192100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 27W (IN-FA) WARNING NR 12//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 27W (IN-FA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 353 NM SOUTHEAST OF
ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
COMPACT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OBSCURED BY A DEEP
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH AN EYE FEATURE THAT HAS BEEN FADING IN
AND OUT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A WARM PIXEL ON TOP OF THE
LLCC IN THE ABOVE ANIMATION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD AND REFLECTS THE IMPROVED STATE
OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD NORTHEASTWARD AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. TS 27W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 27W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 72 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR, WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN RELATIVELY FAST TRACK SPEEDS AND INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 115
KNOTS BY TAU 48.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TY IN-FA WILL BEGIN SLOWING AS IT BEGINS
TO RE-CURVE POLEWARD IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE
TROUGH. EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE NEAR TAU
120 AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. CONSEQUENTLY, THE VWS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
AND BEGIN TO ERODE THE SYSTEM. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT UP TO TAU 72, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST UP TO THAT POINT. THE JTWC FORECAST IS POSITIONED JUST TO
THE LEFT OF CONSENSUS AND SLOWER AFTER TAU 72 IN ANTICIPATION OF A
STRONGER STEERING STR.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: IN-FA - Severe Tropical Storm

#87 Postby euro6208 » Thu Nov 19, 2015 3:31 pm

4.5 from PGTW and 5.0 from KNES.

TPPN10 PGTW 191756

A. TYPHOON 27W (IN-FA)

B. 19/1730Z

C. 9.79N

D. 149.48E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T4.5/4.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 46A/PBO EMBD CNTR/ANMTN. LLCC EMBEDDED IN W YIELDS
A CF OF 5.0. MET AND PT YIELD A 4.5. DBO MET.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


BERMEA

TXPQ29 KNES 191517
TCSWNP

A. 27W (IN-FA)

B. 19/1432Z

C. 9.5N

D. 150.0E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T5.0/5.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...DT=5.0 BASED ON WH EMBEDDED GRAY SHADE WITH CMG EYE EMBEDDED
BY CDG. PT=5.0. MET=5.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SCHWARTZ
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Re: WPAC: IN-FA - Severe Tropical Storm

#88 Postby euro6208 » Thu Nov 19, 2015 3:31 pm

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 19 NOV 2015 Time : 193000 UTC
Lat : 9:54:16 N Lon : 149:09:17 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.7 / 975.4mb/ 82.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.7 4.7 4.0

Center Temp : -74.9C Cloud Region Temp : -75.4C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION w/ MW EYE

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : MW ON
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 82km
- Environmental MSLP : 1008mb

Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 15.0 degrees

****************************************************
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Re: WPAC: IN-FA - Severe Tropical Storm

#89 Postby euro6208 » Thu Nov 19, 2015 3:34 pm

Good morning Typhoon In-fa...

Image
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Re: WPAC: IN-FA - Severe Tropical Storm

#90 Postby euro6208 » Thu Nov 19, 2015 3:36 pm

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 191911 CCA
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TYPHOON IN-FA (27W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP272015
500 AM CHST FRI NOV 20 2015

CORRECTED TYPOS IN LOCATION AND DISTANCES

...TYPHOON IN-FA INTENSIFYING AND MOVING AWAY FROM ULUL...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ULUL IN CHUUK STATE.
DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE OCCURRING AND ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING.


A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE...ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CHST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.8N 149.4E

ABOUT 85 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ULUL
ABOUT 235 MILES NORTHWEST OF CHUUK
ABOUT 405 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GUAM
ABOUT 445 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 400 AM CHST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON IN-FA WAS LOCATED
BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 9.8 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 149.4
DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 13 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS TRACK TAKES IN-FA
SOUTH OF GUAM WATERS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 85 MPH. TYPHOON FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES NORTH OF THE CENTER...AND
UP TO 80 MILES SOUTH OF THE CENTER. IN-FA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 AM CHST...FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT
1100 AM.

$$

W. AYDLETT
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Re: WPAC: IN-FA - Severe Tropical Storm

#91 Postby euro6208 » Thu Nov 19, 2015 4:21 pm

Image

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 192101
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TYPHOON IN-FA (27W) ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP272015
800 AM CHST FRI NOV 20 2015

...TYPHOON IN-FA MOVING OUT OF CHUUK STATE...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
THE TYPHOON WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELED FOR ULUL IN CHUUK STATE.
TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE...ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.0N 148.9E

ABOUT 110 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ULUL
ABOUT 270 MILES NORTHWEST OF CHUUK
ABOUT 370 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GUAM
ABOUT 415 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST...310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON IN-FA WAS LOCATED
BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 10.0 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 148.9
DEGREES EAST...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 13 MPH. IN-FA IS EXPECTED TO
CURVE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND MAINTAIN A WEST-NORTHWEST
MOVEMENT ALONG WITH AN SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED THROUGH
SATURDAY. THIS TAKES IN-FA SOUTH OF GUAM EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 85 MPH. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES NORTH OF THE CENTER...AND UP TO 85
MILES SOUTH OF THE CENTER. IN-FA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 1100 AM CHST...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT
200 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

WILLIAMS
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#92 Postby supercane » Thu Nov 19, 2015 4:45 pm

JMA upgraded to typhoon at 21Z:
WTPQ20 RJTD 192100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1526 IN-FA (1526) UPGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 192100UTC 09.7N 149.0E GOOD
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 30NM
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 202100UTC 11.0N 144.3E 75NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
45HF 211800UTC 12.5N 139.5E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
69HF 221800UTC 15.3N 134.7E 210NM 70%
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT =
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#93 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Nov 19, 2015 5:15 pm

In-fa's core is Parma '09 sized, which is quite the coincidence considering that's the storm that In-fa is the replacement for.

Image
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Re: WPAC: IN-FA - Typhoon

#94 Postby euro6208 » Thu Nov 19, 2015 8:59 pm

Image

Up to 90 knots.

WDPN31 PGTW 200300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 27W (IN-FA) WARNING NR 13//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 27W (IN-FA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 319 NM SOUTHEAST
OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS AN EXPANDING SYSTEM WITH A DEEPENING AND SYMMETRIC
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST THAT IS OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). ADDITIONALLY, FEEDER BANDS HAVE WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO
THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A DIMPLE FEATURE OVER THE
LLCC IN THE MSI LOOP WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
95 KNOTS IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND
RJTD AND REFLECTS THE IMPROVED STATE OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD NORTHEASTWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. TS 27W
IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 27W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 72 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP STR, WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN RELATIVELY FAST TRACK SPEEDS AND INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 115
KNOTS BY TAU 48.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TY IN-FA WILL BEGIN SLOWING AS IT BEGINS
TO RE-CURVE POLEWARD IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE
TROUGH. EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE NEAR TAU
120 AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND THE
STRONG MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. CONSEQUENTLY, THE VWS IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AND BEGIN TO ERODE THE SYSTEM. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT UP TO TAU 72, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST UP TO THAT POINT. THE JTWC FORECAST IS POSITIONED
JUST TO THE LEFT OF CONSENSUS AND SLOWER AFTER TAU 72 IN
ANTICIPATION OF A STRONGER STEERING STR.//
NNNN
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#95 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Thu Nov 19, 2015 9:58 pm

FYI, In-fa is the replacement name of Parma. They both have the same pinhole eye. :wink:

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#96 Postby 1900hurricane » Fri Nov 20, 2015 12:28 am

SSMI and SSMIS passes aren't particularly helpful at assessing In-fa's core right now; they simply don't have a high enough resolution. It's going to take a clean GPM, AMSR2, or Coriolis pass to get a better look.

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Re: WPAC: IN-FA - Typhoon

#97 Postby euro6208 » Fri Nov 20, 2015 4:04 am

Up to 100 knots, category 3...

WDPN31 PGTW 200900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 27W (IN-FA) WARNING NR 14//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 27W (IN-FA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM SOUTHEAST
OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A
200427Z SSMI 85GHZ IMAGE REVEAL TIGHTLY CURVED, DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING SURROUNDING A 5-NM PINHOLE EYE. THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION AND RECENT TRACK MOTION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS IS BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF
T5.5 (102 KNOTS). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND RADIAL OUTFLOW.
TY 27W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 27W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 72 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP STR, WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN RELATIVELY FAST TRACK SPEEDS AND INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 120
KNOTS BY TAU 24.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TY IN-FA WILL BEGIN SLOWING AS IT BEGINS
TO RE-CURVE POLEWARD IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE
TROUGH. EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE NEAR TAU
96 AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND THE
STRONG MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. HIGH VWS VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AFTER TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 120, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST. THE JTWC FORECAST IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS, WHICH HAS REMAINED CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST DAY.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: IN-FA - Typhoon

#98 Postby euro6208 » Fri Nov 20, 2015 4:06 am

TPPN10 PGTW 200608

A. TYPHOON 27W (IN-FA)

B. 20/0550Z

C. 10.43N

D. 147.47E

E. THREE/HMWRI8

F. T5.5/5.5/D2.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 11A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. LG EYE SURROUNDED BY B
YIELDS AN E# AND DT (NO EYE ADJUSTMENT) OF 5.5. MET YIELDS A
4.5 WHILE PT YIELDS A 5.0. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


LEMBKE
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Re: WPAC: IN-FA - Typhoon

#99 Postby euro6208 » Fri Nov 20, 2015 4:09 am

At around noon today, Guam was placed in condition of readiness 2 which means that damaging winds of 39 miles per hour or more may arrive within 24 hours.

Guam was also placed in Tropical Storm Warning.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN 24 HOURS.
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Re: WPAC: IN-FA - Typhoon

#100 Postby euro6208 » Fri Nov 20, 2015 4:11 am

In-fa very small pinhole eye evident in the Guam radar.

Image

000
WTPQ61 PGUM 200901
TCUPQ1

TYPHOON IN-FA (27W) TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GUAM WP272015
700 PM CHST FRI NOV 20 2015

...651 PM CHST...0851 UTC...WFO GUAM RADAR POSITION ESTIMATE...

AT 651 PM CHST...0851 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON IN-FA WAS LOCATED
BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 10.6 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 146.8
DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 240 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE GUAM DOPPLER
WEATHER RADAR AT ELEVATION 0.5 DEGREES AND A HEIGHT OF 38800 FEET.


THIS POSITION IS ABOUT
ABOUT 240 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GUAM
ABOUT 265 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ROTA
ABOUT 315 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TINIAN
ABOUT 320 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN

RADAR-DETERMINED MOTION OF THE CENTER DURING THE PAST HOUR IS 12 KT
(14 MPH) TOWARDS 290 DEGREES...WEST-NORTHWEST. MOVEMENT CONFIDENCE
IS GOOD.

SUMMARY OF 651 PM CHST...0851 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.6N 146.8E ELEVATION...38800 FEET ABOUT 240 MILES
SOUTHEAST...145 DEGREES...OF THE GUAM RADAR.

MOVEMENT IS WEST-NORTHWEST...290 DEGREES...AT 12 KNOTS (14 MPH) OVER
THE PAST HOUR. CONFIDENCE IN THE CENTER POSITION IS GOOD. EYE
DIAMETER IS 5 NM.

NEXT POSITION ESTIMATE WILL BE AROUND 800 PM.

$$

ZIOBRO
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