EPAC: INVEST 99E

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cycloneye
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EPAC: INVEST 99E

#1 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 14, 2015 1:41 pm

99E INVEST 151114 1800 10.5N 125.0W EPAC 25 1005

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 AM PST SAT NOV 14 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A large area of disturbed weather has developed several hundred
miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula. Slow development of this system will be possible during
the next several days while the system moves slowly westward to
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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#2 Postby galaxy401 » Sun Nov 15, 2015 11:21 am

Large system. Now 10/30%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 AM PST SUN NOV 15 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A low pressure system located about 1250 miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to produce
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Although upper-level
winds are expected to be only marginally conducive, some slow
development of this disturbance is still possible during the next
few days while it moves slowly westward to west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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I don't get hurricanes here but I do get their remnants.

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E

#3 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 15, 2015 12:34 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 AM PST SUN NOV 15 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A low pressure system located about 1200 miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to produce
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Although upper-level
winds are expected to be only marginally conducive, some slow
development of this disturbance is still possible during the next
few days while it moves little.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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#4 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Nov 15, 2015 12:34 pm

Code: Select all

                    * EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                    * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  INVEST      EP992015  11/15/15  12 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    25    27    29    29    29    21   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS
V (KT) LAND       25    27    29    29    29    21   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS
V (KT) LGE mod    25    26    27    27    25    21    16   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)        18    22    24    30    34    37    41    41    43    49    52    60    65
SHEAR ADJ (KT)    -3    -2    -1     0     3     9    11     7     5     4     2    -1    -4
SHEAR DIR        237   247   224   224   236   234   241   229   234   226   227   221   215
SST (C)         28.2  28.1  27.8  27.6  27.4  27.1  27.1  27.2  27.2  27.1  26.8  26.4  25.8
POT. INT. (KT)   144   145   141   139   136   132   130   133   134   133   130   126   120
200 MB T (C)   -52.8 -52.7 -52.0 -52.2 -52.6 -52.4 -52.6 -52.5 -53.0 -52.5 -52.4 -52.3 -52.6
TH_E DEV (C)       3     3     2     2     2     2     2     2     3     3     3     3     3
700-500 MB RH     78    74    71    67    62    55    49    45    42    44    46    44    38
MODEL VTX (KT)     8     9    10    10    11     9     9     9     8     7     6     6     6
850 MB ENV VOR    17    40    56    65    63    50    36    48    59    58    44    45    23
200 MB DIV       191   140    99    64    40    48    47    46    37    30    30    48    23
700-850 TADV       1     6     1    -2    -6    -4     0     3     5     9     6     6     8
LAND (KM)       1854  1785  1719  1644  1571  1450  1424  1487  1577  1614  1603  1563  1520
LAT (DEG N)     13.6  14.5  15.3  16.0  16.7  17.5  17.5  17.2  17.1  17.5  18.3  19.5  20.8
LONG(DEG W)    125.4 125.4 125.3 125.0 124.7 123.9 123.6 124.1 125.1 126.1 126.8 127.4 127.9
STM SPEED (KT)     5     9     8     8     6     3     1     4     5     5     6     7     6
HEAT CONTENT      12    11     9    10     6     0     1     2     2     2     0     0     0
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Yellow Evan
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#5 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Nov 16, 2015 12:19 am

GFS/ECMWF/UKMET actually develop this.
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#6 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Nov 16, 2015 11:39 pm

00z GFS drops this to a cat.2.
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Re:

#7 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Nov 16, 2015 11:40 pm

Kingarabian wrote:00z GFS drops this to a cat.2.


Pretty sure it's the thing behind it develops.
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