EPAC: RICK - Post-Tropical

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EPAC: RICK - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 17, 2015 7:14 am

90E INVEST 151117 0600 13.0N 119.0W EPAC 15

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 AM PST TUE NOV 17 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An elongated area of low pressure extending from several hundred
miles south to southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula is producing a large area of cloudiness and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are conducive for
development, and a tropical depression could form during the next
few days while this system moves west-northwestward to
northwestward.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain/Brown
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#2 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 17, 2015 8:43 am

Image

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                    * EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                    * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  INVEST      EP902015  11/17/15  12 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    25    28    32    34    38    43    47    49    46    42    36    30    23
V (KT) LAND       25    28    32    34    38    43    47    49    46    42    36    30    23
V (KT) LGE mod    25    26    28    29    31    34    37    39    40    40    37    33    27
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)         8     6    10     8     4     1     6     9    13    18    28    46    69
SHEAR ADJ (KT)     0     0     0    -2    -2     0     0    -2     0     0     3     0   -11
SHEAR DIR        122   131   153   193   207   179   198   245   271   252   243   228   225
SST (C)         29.9  29.9  29.9  29.9  29.9  29.7  29.5  29.1  28.5  27.6  26.4  25.0  24.2
POT. INT. (KT)   161   161   160   160   160   159   158   155   150   141   128   113   106
200 MB T (C)   -52.3 -52.2 -51.9 -52.0 -52.2 -51.7 -52.1 -51.7 -52.0 -51.9 -52.6 -52.8 -53.2
TH_E DEV (C)       7     7     7     7     8     7     6     6     5     5     4     2     2
700-500 MB RH     78    75    72    67    63    57    59    54    49    48    49    55    54
MODEL VTX (KT)     6     6     7  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST
850 MB ENV VOR    22    18    34    58    60    56    59    45    36    34    19    41    38
200 MB DIV       100   107   103    98   102   111   117    66    45    46    40    61    92
700-850 TADV      -1    -1     0     0     0     0     0    -1    -1     5     5    11     7
LAND (KM)        850   824   800   789   779   762   777   824   780   805   812   702   470
LAT (DEG N)     12.8  13.1  13.4  13.6  13.7  14.2  14.8  15.7  16.8  18.0  19.3  21.4  23.8
LONG(DEG W)    109.1 109.2 109.2 109.3 109.3 109.7 110.5 111.9 113.7 115.7 117.5 118.1 117.1
STM SPEED (KT)     4     3     3     2     2     4     7     9    11    11    10    11    13
HEAT CONTENT      36    32    30    29    29    28    27    24    17     7     0     0     0

  FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/  5      CX,CY:  -4/  2
  T-12 MAX WIND:  15            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  443  (MEAN=581)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:   5.5 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  99.0 (MEAN=65.0)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.   0.   0.   2.   8.  15.  23.  29.  32.  33.  34.  33.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.   9.   8.   7.   4.  -1.  -9.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   0.   1.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     0.   0.   0.  -1.  -3.  -4.  -7.  -9. -10. -10.  -9.  -8.
  PERSISTENCE            0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -5.  -7.  -8.  -9. -10. -10.  -9.  -7.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -5.  -6.  -7.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  MODEL VTX TENDENCY     0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   3.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      1.   1.   2.   3.   3.   3.   3.   2.   1.   0.  -1.  -3.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -3.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  GOES PREDICTORS        2.   4.   5.   6.   7.   6.   5.   4.   2.   1.   1.   1.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           3.   7.   9.  13.  18.  22.  24.  21.  17.  11.   5.  -2.

   ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902015 INVEST     11/17/15  12 UTC **
           ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):   0.0 Range:-22.0 to  38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.8
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :   7.3 Range: 18.7 to   1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  0.9
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   : 135.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.9/  1.0
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :   5.5 Range: 38.9 to   2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.9/  1.0
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :  31.2 Range:  3.6 to  75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.3
 D200 (10**7s-1)       : 102.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  0.6
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:  97.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.9/  0.5
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  69.6 Range: 57.6 to  96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.3/  0.0
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    73% is   5.6 times the sample mean(13.1%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=    51% is   5.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=    32% is   5.1 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
 Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold=    32% is   9.1 times the sample mean( 4.3%)

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902015 INVEST     11/17/15  12 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#3 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 17, 2015 1:34 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 AM PST TUE NOV 17 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Widespread shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an
elongated area of low pressure extending from several hundred miles
south to southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula has increased and become more concentrated since
yesterday. Environmental conditions are conducive for development
through late this week, and a tropical depression is likely to form
during the next few days while this system moves west-northwestward
to northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

Forecaster Kimberlain
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#4 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 18, 2015 9:50 am

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
635 AM PST WED NOV 18 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Special tropical weather outlook issued to update the discussion of
the low pressure system south of Mexico.

Updated: Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low
pressure located about 675 miles south-southeast of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula have continued to become better
organized this morning. Satellite data indicate that a tropical
depression may be forming, and if the current development
trend continues advisories will be initiated on a tropical
depression later this morning or this afternoon.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

$$
Forecaster Brown
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EPAC: TWENTY-ONE-E - Tropical Depression

#5 Postby jaguarjace » Wed Nov 18, 2015 11:07 am

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 181557
TCDEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212015
1000 AM MDT WED NOV 18 2015

The circulation associated with the low pressure system located
several hundred miles south-southeast of the southern tip of Baja
California has become well-defined overnight according to
scatterometer data. These data and first-light visible satellite
imagery also indicate the that center of the cyclone is near the
southeastern edge of large mass of cold-topped convection,
suggesting the presence of some southeasterly shear. A Dvorak
classification of T2.0 from TAFB, along with the earlier
scatterometer data, is used to set the intensity to 30 kt.

Since the history of fixes on this system is short, the initial
motion estimate of 360/02 is somewhat uncertain. A deep trough over
the central United States has created a significant weakness along
110W, which has made for a weak steering environment around the
depression. However, a weak mid-level anticyclone to the south of
mainland Mexico has been imparting a slow northward motion. This
motion should continue for another 24 hours, at which time a
mid-level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico is forecast to build
westward into the eastern Pacific when the central U.S. trough lifts
out. The building ridge should result in a northwestward and then a
west-northwestward track through 72 hours. After that time, a
trough currently between 130W and 140W in the subtropics is forecast
to eject eastward toward the cyclone and result in its recurvature
in about 96 hours. The official forecast track is on the left side
of the guidance envelope, closest to the ECMWF and GFS solutions,
and generally near the multi-model consensus.

There are mixed signals on the potential for intensification in the
short term. Although the waters are anomalously warm, some
southeasterly shear is likely to continue to affect the cyclone over
the next day or two, along with some drying of the lower to middle
troposphere. These large-scale conditions suggest that some
strengthening should occur, but it likely would be tempered by these
two negative factors. Around 72 hours, the cyclone should encounter
an environment of increasing south-southwesterly or southwesterly
shear associated with the trough advancing from the west and rapidly
weaken, likely becoming a remnant low by day 5, if not sooner. The
official intensity forecast is a little above the multi-model
consensus and closest to the ECMWF SHIPS output.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/1600Z 13.0N 107.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 13.3N 107.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 13.8N 107.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 20/0000Z 14.8N 108.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 20/1200Z 15.8N 110.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 21/1200Z 16.4N 113.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 22/1200Z 18.1N 114.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 23/1200Z 20.5N 114.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain
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#6 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 18, 2015 3:40 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212015
200 PM MST WED NOV 18 2015

Overall, the cyclone's cloud pattern has changed little in
organization since the previous advisory. The center of the
depression is on the southeastern edge of a large cluster of deep
convection, indicative of a continuation of moderate southeasterly
shear. A well-defined swirl is also seen in visible satellite
imagery, rotating around the south side of the estimated mean
center. Satellite intensity estimates are a consensus T2.0 from TAFB
and SAB, and the initial intensity estimate is held at 30 kt.

The center has been moving erratically during the last 6 to 12
hours, with fixes during this time indicating a nearly stationary
initial motion. The tail of a deep mid- to upper-level trough over
the central United States extends southwestward to just north of the
depression, which has created a weakness near 110W. The weakness
has created a weak steering environment that should persist for
about the next 12 to 24 hours and result in the depression's moving
erratically or slowly northward around a weak mid-level high to the
east. A turn toward the northwest and then west-northwest is
expected after that time with an increase in forward speed when a
mid-level anticyclone over the Gulf of Mexico builds westward into
the eastern Pacific to the north of the cyclone. After that time, a
trough currently between 130W and 140W in the subtropics is forecast
to eject eastward toward the cyclone and result in a northward turn
in 96 hours. The new track forecast is much faster than the
previous forecast and adjusted to the left, especially beyond 48
hours, but is not as far west as the multi-model consensus.

SHIPS model output indicates a lessening of southeasterly shear over
the depression within 24 hours, with the shear remaining relatively
low through about 72 hours. Meanwhile, the lower- to mid-
tropospheric moisture is forecast to decrease some and be only
marginally conducive for strengthening. However, since the cyclone
should be over anomalously warm waters during this period,
intensification is forecast, especially after the shear decreases.
After 72 hours, a tremendous increase in southwesterly shear ahead
of the trough advancing from the west should result in rapid
weakening, with remnant low status likely in 96 to 120 hours. The
new intensity forecast is a bit higher than the previous one in
agreement with the latest SHIPS/LGEM guidance and remains slightly
above the multi-model consensus.




FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/2100Z 12.8N 107.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 19/0600Z 13.4N 107.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 19/1800Z 14.3N 108.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 20/0600Z 15.2N 110.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 20/1800Z 15.6N 111.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 21/1800Z 17.2N 114.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 22/1800Z 18.6N 115.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 23/1800Z 20.5N 116.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain
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#7 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 18, 2015 10:01 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212015
800 PM MST WED NOV 18 2015

The depression is poorly organized with the low-level center well
separated from the mid-level circulation as indicated by several
microwave images. Similar to earlier today, the low-level center
continues to be located to the southeast of the weakening
convection, indicating that southeasterly shear still prevails.
Initial intensity remains at 30 kt based on satellite estimates from
TAFB and SAB.

There is an opportunity for the depression to strengthen slightly
during the next day or two, while a narrow ridge builds to the
north of the cyclone and the shear decreases. Most of the intensity
models forecast some increase in the winds, and so does the NHC
forecast. In fact, the NHC forecast still brings the depression to
tropical storm status in about 12 to 24 hours. However, by the end
of the forecast period, the effects of cooler waters and dry air
should result in weakening.

The center has moved very little during the past several hours, or
perhaps it has has been drifting eastward and then northward around
a larger cyclonic gyre. Most of the global models build a ridge to
the north of the cyclone soon, and this steering pattern should
force the depression to begin to move on a west-northwest track
early Thursday. It should then continue with this general motion for
the next 2 to 3 days. After that time, a new mid-latitude trough is
forecast to approach from the west, weakening the ridge and inducing
a northward motion. However, there is little confidence in the track
forecast by the end of the period due to large spread in the model
tracks. The NHC forecast follows closely the multi-model consensus,
and is a little to the east of the previous NHC forecast beyond 3
days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0300Z 13.2N 106.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 19/1200Z 13.7N 106.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 20/0000Z 14.6N 108.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 20/1200Z 15.5N 110.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 21/0000Z 16.0N 111.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 22/0000Z 17.5N 113.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 23/0000Z 19.0N 114.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 24/0000Z 21.0N 114.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Avila
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#8 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Nov 18, 2015 10:11 pm

Don't know why Avila lowered the peak 15 knots. This should be okay as shear is forecast to relax big time and poleward outflow will increase. This should result in a 50 knot TS or so in a 36-48 hours time.
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#9 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Nov 19, 2015 9:12 am

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 190835
TCDEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212015
200 AM MST THU NOV 19 2015

Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E remains poorly organized. While
the convection has increased during the past several hours, the
low-level center appears to be east of the southern end of the
convective area due to ongoing southeasterly shear. Satellite
intensity estimates are 30 kt from both TAFB and SAB, and thus the
initial intensity is unchanged from the previous advisory.

The initial motion is a rather uncertain 355/5. A developing mid-
to upper-level ridge to the north and northeast of the depression
should result in a turn toward the west-northwest during the next
24 hours, with this motion continuing through 48 hours. After that
time, a mid-latitude westerly trough moving into the northeastern
Pacific should break the ridge with the depression turning
northwestward and northward. While the guidance is in general
agreement with this scenario, after 72 hours there is still a
significant spread as to where the depression may make the
northward turn. The new forecast track is a little to the south of
the multi-model consensus through 72 hours, then is a little east of
it after that time.

The depression is expected to remain over warm sea surface
temperatures for the next three days or so, and the current shear
is forecast to subside to low values between 12-48 hours. However,
despite these apparently favorable conditions, the intensity
guidance forecasts only modest strengthening during the next couple
of days. After that time, increasing southwesterly shear and
decreasing sea surface temperatures should cause the cyclone to
weaken. The new intensity forecast is the same as the previous
forecast, and it lies near the upper edge of the guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0900Z 13.7N 106.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 19/1800Z 14.4N 106.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 20/0600Z 15.2N 108.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 20/1800Z 16.0N 110.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 21/0600Z 16.7N 111.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 22/0600Z 18.0N 113.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 23/0600Z 19.5N 114.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 24/0600Z 21.5N 114.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: EPAC: TWENTY-ONE-E - Tropical Depression

#10 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Nov 19, 2015 9:13 am

Code: Select all

                    * EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                    * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  TWENTYONE   EP212015  11/19/15  12 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    35    37    39    40    41    42    42    39    35    30    22    17   DIS
V (KT) LAND       35    37    39    40    41    42    42    39    35    30    22    17   DIS
V (KT) LGE mod    35    37    39    40    41    42    42    39    36    32    27    23    19
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)        10     7     6     3     3    10    13    17    21    30    36    36    50
SHEAR ADJ (KT)    -3    -3    -3    -2     1     0    -1     0     4     3     2     3    -1
SHEAR DIR        121   137   138   164   238   257   251   253   252   257   251   241   251
SST (C)         29.9  29.8  29.8  29.7  29.7  29.2  28.8  28.4  28.0  27.6  27.2  26.9  26.5
POT. INT. (KT)   162   162   162   162   162   156   151   146   142   138   133   131   126
200 MB T (C)   -51.9 -51.8 -51.6 -51.7 -51.8 -51.6 -52.2 -52.3 -52.8 -53.1 -53.5 -53.7 -54.4
TH_E DEV (C)       7     8     8     8     7     7     6     5     4     4     4     5     4
700-500 MB RH     64    64    63    61    61    59    57    57    67    69    66    55    48
MODEL VTX (KT)    10    10     9     8     8     8     7     7     6     6     5  LOST  LOST
850 MB ENV VOR    22    16    19    10    10    13    11    22    20    16     8     0   -25
200 MB DIV        71    54    27    22    18     0    10    19    21    32    33     6    -4
700-850 TADV      -2     1     0    -1    -2     2     0     0     0     5     9     5     8
LAND (KM)        511   507   511   522   552   623   641   608   579   553   512   430   312
LAT (DEG N)     14.3  14.7  15.1  15.5  15.9  16.7  17.3  18.0  18.7  19.4  20.3  21.3  22.4
LONG(DEG W)    105.7 106.3 106.9 107.8 108.7 110.2 111.5 112.6 113.3 113.8 114.1 114.1 113.9
STM SPEED (KT)     5     7     8    10     9     8     7     6     4     4     5     6     5
HEAT CONTENT      47    49    42    36    40    38    26    20    11     8     6     3     0

  FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):  0/  5      CX,CY:   0/  5
  T-12 MAX WIND:  30            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  572  (MEAN=581)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  18.5 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  71.0 (MEAN=65.0)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.   1.   2.   3.   8.  14.  19.  23.  25.  26.  26.  26.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     1.   1.   3.   4.   5.   6.   5.   3.  -1.  -5.  -9. -14.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     0.   0.   0.  -1.  -2.  -4.  -6.  -7.  -8.  -8.  -7.  -6.
  PERSISTENCE            1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -4.  -5.  -7.  -7.  -8.  -7.  -6.  -4.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -5.  -6.  -7.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.
  MODEL VTX TENDENCY     0.   0.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -5.  -5.  -5.  -7.  -8.  -8.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.   1.   1.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -5.  -5.  -5.  -5.  -5.  -5.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  GOES PREDICTORS        0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   1.   1.   2.   3.   3.   2.   2.   1.   1.   1.   0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           2.   4.   5.   6.   7.   7.   4.   0.  -5. -13. -18. -22.

   ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP212015 TWENTYONE  11/19/15  12 UTC **
           ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):   5.0 Range:-22.0 to  38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  1.0
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :   6.0 Range: 18.7 to   1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  1.1
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   : 126.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.9/  0.9
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :  18.5 Range: 38.9 to   2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  0.6
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :  42.8 Range:  3.6 to  75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/  0.5
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :  38.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.3/  0.2
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:  67.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.2
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  64.8 Range: 57.6 to  96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.2/  0.0
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    36% is   2.8 times the sample mean(13.1%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=    30% is   3.4 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=    22% is   3.6 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
 Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold=    17% is   4.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%
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Re: EPAC: RICK - Tropical Storm

#11 Postby cycloneye » Thu Nov 19, 2015 9:56 am

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RICK ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212015
900 AM CST THU NOV 19 2015

...DEPRESSION BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM...
...FORECAST TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BY FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 105.8W
ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
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#12 Postby supercane » Thu Nov 19, 2015 9:59 am

WTPZ41 KNHC 191457
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212015
900 AM CST THU NOV 19 2015

The cloud pattern of the cyclone is better organized than this time
yesterday. First-light visible imagery indicates that the low-level
center is underneath a circular mass of deep convection, and there
has been an increase in banding features and their associated
curvature. The increase in organization could be a sign of some
decrease of the southeasterly shear that has been affecting the
cyclone. A Dvorak intensity estimate of T2.5 from TAFB and an
UW-CIMSS ADT value of 2.9 is used to raise the initial intensity
estimate to 35 kt.

Some further decrease in southeasterly shear is likely through
early Friday. With large-scale environmental conditions otherwise
largely favorable, intensification is shown through about 24 to 36
hours. The window of opportunity for strengthening should be short-
lived though, since west-southwesterly shear is forecast to increase
by 48 hours when Rick moves north of the upper-level ridge axis.
The shear should become prohibitively high by 72 hours ahead of a
shortwave trough in the eastern Pacific subtropics being ejected
eastward toward the cyclone. The result should be rapid weakening,
and remnant low status is likely by 96 hours, if not sooner.
Dissipation is now shown by 120 hours. The new NHC intensity
forecast is slightly above the previous one, and shows and earlier
peak, with remnant low status indicated sooner.

The center has been difficult to locate but seems to be slightly
farther east than previous estimates based on a couple of microwave
passes and visible imagery. The best estimate of the initial motion
is north or 360/06. Global models show mid-level ridging building to
the north of the cyclone today, and the depression should be respond
by moving more quickly toward the northwest and then west-northwest
over the next day or two. Rick should reach the western periphery
of this ridge in 3 to 4 days and begin to move more poleward, but
will likely dissipate before responding to the trough in the
subtropics moving toward it. The new track forecast is right of the
previous one, primarily due to the more eastward initial position
estimate.

Only 3 tropical storms have formed later than this calendar date in
the eastern North Pacific since reliable records began in the early
1970s.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/1500Z 14.7N 105.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 15.2N 106.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 20/1200Z 16.2N 108.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 21/0000Z 17.1N 110.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 21/1200Z 17.7N 112.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 22/1200Z 19.0N 113.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 23/1200Z 20.9N 114.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain
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#13 Postby cycloneye » Thu Nov 19, 2015 4:10 pm

TROPICAL STORM RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212015
200 PM MST THU NOV 19 2015

Rick is exhibiting a shear pattern, with the low-level center of the
cyclone estimated to be near the southeastern edge of a curved
convective band over the northwestern semicircle of the
circulation. A 1616 UTC ASCAT-A overpass indicated peak
uncontaminated winds of 36 kt, so the initial intensity is held at
35 kt. Some further reduction in southeasterly shear over the
cyclone should occur tonight or early Friday while other large-
scale factors remain generally favorable, which could allow for some
additional intensification over the next 24 hours or so. However,
the broad nature of the cyclone's circulation shown by the
scatterometer data is most likely to result in only slow
strengthening before a substantial increase in west-southwesterly
shear occurs in about 36 to 48 hours. Even higher shear is expected
over Rick by 72 hours once the storm gains more latitude
and a trough in the eastern Pacific subtropics nears the cyclone
from the west. A rapid decoupling of the cyclone should occur not
long after that time, and remnant low status is indicated in 96
hours, though this could occur sooner. The new intensity forecast
is is a bit lower than the previous one and slightly lower than the
multi-model consensus through 48 hours.

ASCAT passes were quite helpful in determining that the location of
Rick's low-level center was farther south and west than previously
estimated. Those fixes indicate that Rick has turned northwestward
with an initial motion estimate of 320/07. A mid-level ridge over
mainland Mexico should build north of Rick tonight and tomorrow,
resulting in a west-northwestward turn with an increase in forward
speed. Once Rick reaches the western periphery of this ridge in
about 3 days, a more poleward track is forecast until dissipation.
The new track forecast is adjusted back to the left, primarily due
the center re-location.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/2100Z 14.8N 107.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 15.5N 108.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 20/1800Z 16.2N 109.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 21/0600Z 16.9N 111.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 21/1800Z 17.5N 112.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 22/1800Z 19.0N 114.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 23/1800Z 21.2N 115.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain
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#14 Postby supercane » Fri Nov 20, 2015 10:23 am

ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL STORM RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212015
800 PM MST THU NOV 19 2015

Rick's cloud pattern has eroded some during the past 6 hours with
previously solid bands of convection in the northern semicircle
having become more fragmented during the past few hours.
In addition, numerous small arc cloud lines have been noted
propagating away from the cyclone, which is indicative of dry
mid-level air having penetrated into the inner core region. This
supposition is further supported by a 20/0006 UTC AMSU pass
indicating only a narrow fragmented band of convection is present
in the northwestern quadrant of the storm. Therefore, the initial
intensity of 35 kt remains unchanged for this advisory, which is
lower than the available satellite intensity estimates.

The initial motion estimate is 295/09 kt and is based primarily on
passive microwave satellite data. A mid-level ridge over central
Mexico is forecast to build westward to the north and east of Rick
during the next 24-36 hours, while a large upper-level low located
near 27N 138W is expected to fill and gradually open up into a broad
trough by 48-72 hours. The combination of these two steering
mechanisms should keep Rick moving west-northwestward for the next
48 hours, followed by a decrease in forward speed and a gradual turn
toward the northwest and north at 72 h and 96 h, respectively. The
official forecast track was only nudged slightly to the left of the
previous advisory track, and essentially lies down the middle of NHC
track guidance envelope.

Rick is forecast to move into a weak vertical wind shear regime
during the next 24-36 hours while remaining over SSTs of 29 deg C.
These favorable conditions would normally support intensification of
a tropical cyclone. However, the ragged and elongated inner-core
wind field, coupled with additional entrainment of drier mid-level
air, is expected to inhibit any significant development and
organization of deep convection. By 48 hours and beyond, an increase
in southwesterly vertical wind shear to more than 25 kt is forecast
to induce gradual weakening, with Rick becoming a remnant low by 96
hours when the cyclone will be moving over cooler waters at that
time. Rick is expected to dissipate day 5, if not sooner. NHC
intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous advisory and
remains below the multi-model consensus, IVCN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0300Z 15.2N 108.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 20/1200Z 15.9N 109.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 21/0000Z 16.5N 111.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 21/1200Z 17.2N 112.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 22/0000Z 17.8N 113.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 23/0000Z 19.5N 115.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
96H 24/0000Z 21.6N 115.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL STORM RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212015
200 AM MST FRI NOV 20 2015

Rick is sending mixed signals tonight with regard to its
organization and intensity. On one hand, the convective banding is
a little better defined, and Dvorak T-numbers are now T3.0 from SAB
and T2.5 from TAFB. On the other hand, recent scatterometer data
indicate that the maximum winds remain about 35 kt, with the
tropical-storm-force winds confined to a small area west of the
center.

The initial motion remains west-northwestward, or 295/11 kt. A
mid-level ridge that extends westward across central Mexico is
forecast to build farther westward over the Pacific waters during
the next 24 hours, which should keep the cyclone on a west-
northwestward course for the next couple of days. By Sunday, the
western extent of the ridge will be eroded by a shortwave trough,
causing Rick to turn gradually northwestward and northward on days
3-5. The track models all agree on this general scenario, but the
overall guidance envelope has shifted westward from the previous
cycle, especially beyond 36 hours. Therefore, the updated NHC track
forecast is also shifted westward and lies very close to the TVCE
model consensus and the Florida State Superensemble.

Deep-layer shear near Rick is very low at the moment and should
remain generally light for the next 36-48 hours. In addition, sea
surface temperatures are sufficiently warm for intensification.
However, a major limiting factor appears to be the presence of
mid-level dry air, with the 700-500 mb relative humidity expected to
remain around 50 percent for the next few days. Therefore, only
slight strengthening is anticipated in the short term. After 48
hours, a marked increase in southwesterly shear should cause Rick to
weaken and degenerate to a remnant low, possibly as early as 72
hours, when the associated deep convection is sheared away from the
low-level center. The latest global models suggest that the remnant
low may now last through 120 hours. There is not much spread among
the intensity models, and the official intensity forecast mainly
follows the IVCN model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0900Z 15.9N 109.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 20/1800Z 16.5N 110.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 21/0600Z 17.1N 112.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 21/1800Z 17.6N 113.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 22/0600Z 18.1N 115.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 23/0600Z 20.1N 116.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 24/0600Z 22.0N 117.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 25/0600Z 22.5N 117.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg

WTPZ41 KNHC 201437
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212015
800 AM MST FRI NOV 20 2015

Rick's convective pattern remains rather unimpressive, with some
ragged banding in the western semicircle and a small area of more
concentrated convection south of the estimated center position. The
initial intensity remains 35 kt based on the earlier ASCAT data and
the latest Dvorak Data-T numbers from TAFB and SAB. While Rick is
still situated over warm waters in a low shear environment, mid-
level dry air and relatively meager instability appear to be
limiting intensification. All of the intensity guidance suggests
only modest strengthening in the next 24 to 36 hours before the
shear increases by 48 hours. The increasing shear and a track over
cooler waters should result in Rick weakening to a remnant low by
day 3. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the latest intensity
consensus.

The initial motion estimate is 290/10. Rick is forecast to continue
moving west-northwestward for the next 36 hours while being steered
by a mid-level ridge centered over southwestern Mexico. After that
time, the ridge will weaken as a deep-layer trough amplifies to the
northwest of the tropical cyclone, and Rick should recurve late in
the period, albeit as a shallow cyclone. The new NHC track forecast
is close to the previous one through 48 hours and then is a little
to the left and slower, trending toward the weaker ECMWF solution.
The official forecast is much slower than the latest GFS solution at
days 3 through 5, which appears too strong with Rick at those times.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/1500Z 16.1N 110.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 21/0000Z 16.7N 111.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 21/1200Z 17.3N 113.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 22/0000Z 17.8N 114.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 22/1200Z 18.6N 115.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 23/1200Z 20.5N 117.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 24/1200Z 21.5N 117.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 25/1200Z 22.5N 117.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brennan
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#15 Postby cycloneye » Fri Nov 20, 2015 3:37 pm

TROPICAL STORM RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212015
200 PM MST FRI NOV 20 2015

The center of Rick is now exposed to the northwest of the remaining
deep convection, and banding features have weakened during the past
few hours. A partial ASCAT-B pass from 1650Z showed a few 30-35 kt
wind vectors to the east of the center. The initial intensity
remains 35 kt based on the latest Dvorak Data-T numbers from TAFB
and SAB, and this could be a little generous. Dry mid-level air
continues to prevent Rick from intensifying, and much of the
intensity guidance shows little change in strength during the next
24 to 36 hours. After that time, the shear is forecast to increase
and Rick will begin moving over cooler SSTs, which should result in
remnant low status in 2 to 3 days. The new NHC intensity forecast is
close to the latest intensity consensus.

Rick has moved to the left of the previous forecast, and the initial
motion estimate is a more confident 285/10 since the center is now
exposed. With the more westerly initial position and motion and a
weaker trend in the guidance, the track models have shown a large
westward shift this cycle. Rick should continue moving generally
west-northwestward for the next 48 hours, followed by a turn toward
the northwest in 3 days as the ridge to the north weakens. The
remnant of Rick is then forecast to move slowly northward or meander
before dissipating in about 5 days. The new NHC track is about a
degree to the left of the previous one, and is close to a blend of
the latest GFS and ECMWF model forecasts.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/2100Z 16.3N 111.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 21/0600Z 16.6N 112.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 21/1800Z 16.9N 114.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 22/0600Z 17.5N 116.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 22/1800Z 18.4N 117.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 23/1800Z 20.5N 119.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 24/1800Z 21.5N 119.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan
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#16 Postby supercane » Fri Nov 20, 2015 9:37 pm

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 210234
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212015
800 PM MST FRI NOV 20 2015

Rick remains a poorly organized tropical cyclone, with the low-level
center exposed to the northwest of a small area of deep convection.
The initial wind speed estimate remains 35 kt, following the
Dvorak CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB, but it would not be surprising
if the system were a little weaker. The continued influence of dry
stable air and an increase in shear should prevent strengthening,
or cause some weakening, of Rick during the next day or so. In
about 2 days, Rick is forecast to become a remnant low when it
is expected to be over cool waters and in hostile atmospheric
conditions. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the latest
consensus prediction.

Satellite fixes indicate that the center of Rick has moved a little
to the north and is slightly faster than the previous track, and
the latest initial motion estimate is 290/11 kt. A motion toward
the west-northwest to northwest is expected during the next couple
of days while the cyclone moves along the southwestern periphery of
a mid-level ridge. After that time, the shallow cyclone will likely
drift northwestward or northward when it becomes embedded in weak
steering currents. The latest NHC track forecast is slightly to the
north of the previous one in the short term, but is otherwise
largely an update. This forecast is in best agreement with GFEX, a
consensus of the GFS and ECMWF models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0300Z 16.7N 112.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 17.0N 113.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 22/0000Z 17.4N 115.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 22/1200Z 18.2N 117.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 23/0000Z 19.1N 118.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 24/0000Z 21.0N 119.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 25/0000Z 21.8N 119.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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#17 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 21, 2015 4:54 am

TROPICAL STORM RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212015
200 AM MST SAT NOV 21 2015

Rick has been moving quickly west-northwestward into a drier air
mass, with all its associated deep convection lagging to the south
and southeast of the low-level center. The initial intensity
remains 35 kt based on Dvorak CI numbers of 2.5 from TAFB and SAB,
but if the convective organization doesn't improve, these numbers
are likely to fall below the tropical storm threshold soon.
Vertical shear is expected to increase substantially in about 36
hours, and the cyclone will continue to move toward cooler water and
into an environment where the mid-level relative humidity is less
than 50 percent. Therefore, Rick will likely weaken to a tropical
depression sometime during the next 24 hours and degenerate to a
remnant low by 48 hours. The updated NHC intensity forecast closely
follows the SHIPS and LGEM guidance.

A mid-level ridge extending westward from southern and central
Mexico is steering Rick west-northwestward with an initial motion
of 285/10 kt. A mid- to upper-level trough located between 125W
and 140W is expected to move eastward and erode the western extent
of the ridge during the next day or two, causing Rick to slow down
and turn northwestward. After 48 hours, the remnant low should
turn northward and slow down further in a weaker lower-tropospheric
flow regime. No changes were required to the previous NHC track
forecast, and the new one is close to the multi-model consensus of
the dynamical models, with extra weight given to the typically
skillful ECMWF model.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0900Z 16.9N 113.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 21/1800Z 17.2N 114.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 22/0600Z 17.9N 116.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 22/1800Z 19.0N 117.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 23/0600Z 20.1N 118.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 24/0600Z 21.8N 119.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 25/0600Z 22.5N 118.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg
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#18 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 21, 2015 9:40 am

TROPICAL STORM RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212015
700 AM PST SAT NOV 21 2015

The center of Rick continues to be exposed to the northwest of
bursting area of deep convection. The initial intensity remains 35
kt, perhaps generously, based on the latest Dvorak estimate from
TAFB. The SHIPS model based off GFS model fields shows that the
mid-level relative humidity is now below 50 percent and shear will
be increasing above 20 kt in the next 24 to 48 hours. These factors,
along with cooling SSTs along the track, should result in Rick
weakening to a depression later today, and becoming a remnant low in
about 36 hours.

The initial motion estimate is 290/11, and Rick should gradually
slow down and turn poleward during the next 2 to 3 days as the ridge
to the north weakens due to an eastward moving mid/upper-level
trough. Late in the period, the shallow remnant of Rick should move
slowly northward to northeastward in weak low-level flow prior to
dissipation. The new NHC track forecast is largely an update of the
previous one and is close to the latest GFS/ECMWF consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/1500Z 17.3N 115.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 17.7N 116.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 22/1200Z 18.6N 117.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 23/0000Z 19.8N 118.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 23/1200Z 20.8N 119.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 24/1200Z 22.0N 119.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 25/1200Z 22.5N 119.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan
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#19 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 21, 2015 6:04 pm

TROPICAL STORM RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212015
100 PM PST SAT NOV 21 2015

Microwave data and visible imagery indicate that the center of
Rick is located farther south than estimated on the previous
advisory. This places the center a little closer to the deep
convection, but there remains little in the way of convective
banding. The initial intensity remains 35 kt based on a blend of
the latest Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB.

Satellite imagery shows dry, stable air working its way into the
northwestern quadrant of the cyclone. This dry air plus shear
increasing above 20 kt tonight should result in weakening, and Rick
is expected to become a remnant low by 36 hours. The remnant low
should gradually spin down and dissipate in about 4 days.

Satellite fixes indicate that Rick has taken a westward jog during
the past 6 to 12 hours, and the initial motion estimate is 275/10.
Despite this, the overall synoptic reasoning has not changed, and
Rick will gradually recurve in the next 2-3 days as it moves around
the western edge of the subtropical ridge. As Rick becomes a shallow
remnant low, it should move slowly northward until dissipation in
the weak low-level flow. The new NHC track forecast is to the left
of the previous one due to the initial position and motion, and is
close to a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/2100Z 16.8N 115.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 17.3N 117.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 22/1800Z 18.5N 118.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 23/0600Z 19.7N 119.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 23/1800Z 20.7N 120.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 24/1800Z 21.5N 120.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan
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Re: EPAC: RICK - Tropical Storm

#20 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 21, 2015 9:42 pm

TROPICAL STORM RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212015
700 PM PST SAT NOV 21 2015

Rick has not changed much since yesterday. Visible satellite images
from earlier this evening and microwave data indicate that the
low-level center of the storm is located to the northwest of a
pulsing area of deep convection. The initial intensity estimate is
again held at 35 kt, in agreement with a blend of the Dvorak
classifications from TAFB, SAB, and ADT values from CIMSS at the
University of Wisconsin.

Dry and stable air has been entraining into the northwestern side of
the circulation for some time. The continued effects of dry
air, increasing shear, and cooler waters should result in Rick
weakening during the next day or so. The cyclone is expected to
become a remnant low by Sunday night or early Monday when it moves
over sea surface temperatures lower than 26 degrees C and is
embedded in hostile atmospheric conditions. The remnant low is
expected to gradually weaken and dissipate in 3 to 4 days.

Rick continues to move westward at about 10 kt, and the system is
a little left of the previous track prediction. The guidance
continues to show Rick turning northwestward and slowing down
during the next couple of days as the mid-level ridge to the north
of the storm breaks down. Little motion is expected beyond a
couple of days when the shallow cyclone becomes embedded in weak
steering currents. The NHC official track forecast is shifted to
the west of the previous one, and is in best agreement with a
consensus of the GFS and ECMWF models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0300Z 17.0N 117.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 17.8N 118.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 23/0000Z 19.0N 119.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 23/1200Z 20.0N 120.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 24/0000Z 20.7N 121.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 25/0000Z 21.3N 121.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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