EPAC: RICK - Post-Tropical

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cycloneye
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#21 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 22, 2015 5:24 am

TROPICAL DEPRESSION RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212015
100 AM PST SUN NOV 22 2015

Rick is barely hanging on as a tropical cyclone. Convective cloud
tops have warmed considerably since the previous advisory, and the
overall convective pattern has become disheveled looking with the
low-level circulation center now fully exposed more than 60 nmi to
the northwest of the closest convective cells. The initial intensity
has been decreased to 30 kt based on 25-kt to 30-kt satellite
intensity estimates, making Rick a tropical depression.

Rick has made the expected turn toward the west-northwest and is now
moving 290/10 kt. There is essentially no significant change to the
previous forecast track reasoning. The latest NHC model guidance
continues to show Rick turning northwestward and slowing down later
today, followed by a northward drift on Monday and Tuesday as the
cyclone continues to weaken, becoming more vertically shallow and
trapped in weak steering currents within a break in a low- to
mid-level ridge. The official track forecast is similar to the
previous advisory track and lies close to the consensus of the GFS
and ECMWF model tracks.

Microwave satellite images indicate that dry and stable air has now
wrapped all the way around the cyclone and has penetrated into the
inner-core region, effectively cutting off convective development
there. The combination of even drier air and cooler sea-surface
temperatures, along with southwesterly vertical wind shear
increasing to more than 30 kt by late tonight or Monday morning, is
expected to produce further weakening for the rest of the forecast
period. Rick should become a remnant low by tonight or early Monday,
and dissipate by 96 h, if not sooner. The NHC intensity forecast
closely follows the the IVCN consensus intensity model.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0900Z 17.3N 117.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 18.0N 119.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 23/0600Z 19.2N 120.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 23/1800Z 20.3N 120.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 24/0600Z 20.9N 120.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 25/0600Z 21.3N 120.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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#22 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 22, 2015 9:48 am

TROPICAL DEPRESSION RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212015
700 AM PST SUN NOV 22 2015

Dry air and southwesterly shear has taken its toll on the tropical
cyclone since yesterday. Deep convection associated with Rick has
become well separated from the low-level center and diminished
overnight, with the tropical cyclone becoming a swirl of mostly
low- to mid-level clouds. The initial wind speed remains 30 kt,
which is a blend of the Dvorak T- and CI-numbers from TAFB.
Increasing shear, dry air, and decreasing sea surface temperatures
are expected to cause the cyclone to spin down during the next
couple of days, and Rick is forecast to become a remnant low later
today. The remnant circulation should dissipate in 3 to 4 days.

Rick is moving northwestward or 305/8 kt. The cyclone is predicted
to turn north-northwestward and northward during the next 24 to 36
hours as it is steered between a shortwave trough to its west and a
low- to mid-level ridge over western Mexico. After that time, the
low-level steering currents are expected to weaken, and the remnant
low should become nearly stationary. The updated NHC forecast track
is similar to the previous advisory and is near the middle of the
guidance envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/1500Z 17.8N 118.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 18.6N 119.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 23/1200Z 19.7N 120.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 24/0000Z 20.5N 120.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 24/1200Z 21.0N 120.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 25/1200Z 20.7N 119.6W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: EPAC: RICK - Remnants

#23 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 22, 2015 3:33 pm

Bye.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212015
100 PM PST SUN NOV 22 2015

Rick has become a swirl of low clouds that has been devoid of
organized deep convection for more than 12 hours. As a result,
Rick is now a post-tropical remnant low, and this will be the
last NHC advisory on this system. The initial intensity remains
30 kt, which is in agreement with the latest Dvorak current
intensity estimate from TAFB. Dry air, strong southwesterly shear,
and cooler sea surface temperatures along the forecast track of the
low should cause weakening during the next couple of days, and
dissipation is expected within 72 hours.

The initial motion estimate is 310/7 kt. The low should turn
northward during the next day or so, then become nearly stationary
as the low-level steering flow weakens. After that time, the remnant
low is forecast to turn eastward or southeastward before dissipation
occurs. The new NHC track forecast is in good agreement with the
latest global model guidance and is similar to the previous
NHC advisory.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/2100Z 18.1N 119.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 23/0600Z 18.9N 119.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 23/1800Z 19.8N 120.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 24/0600Z 20.5N 120.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 24/1800Z 21.0N 120.7W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown
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