SWIND: ANNABELLE - Post-Tropical

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SWIND: ANNABELLE - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Nov 18, 2015 2:17 pm

We have a new invest in the Southwest Indian Basin, 94S. JTWC currently is giving the system a medium chance of development in the next 24 hours.

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#2 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Nov 19, 2015 9:06 am

Looks classifiable to me.

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#3 Postby supercane » Thu Nov 19, 2015 10:03 am

AWIO20 FMEE 191306

TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE

BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN

DATE: 2015/11/19 AT 1200 UTC

PART 1:

WARNING SUMMARY:



Nil.

PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:

The Indian Ocean Basin is in a double Near Equatorial Trough (NET) pattern. The southern hemisphere NET axis stretches

from 50 to 80E along 1S to 7S. The associated convective activity has now focussed only in the eastern part of the basin around a disturbance in pre-genesis stage east of the Chagos Archipelago.

Over the western areas of the basin, deep convection present yesterday has nearly disappeared. The low level circulation described yesterday is not detected anymore on the ASCAT swath or satellite imagery.

Over the east part of the basin, convective activity has increased quite significantly during the past 24h, around a surface low now defined. A closed low level circulation can be seen on this morning ASCAT swath and the 0720Z AMSR2 micro-wave imagery, around a center rather well defined near 7.0S/77.9E. At 12Z, the center was located near 7.8S/77.2E, meaning a movement to the south-west at 10kt. The MSLP is estimated around 1003hPa. The cloud organization is getting better, even if there is no CDO or curved bands well defined for now. According to the ASCAT data, the most intense winds are 20/25kt in the south-eastern quadrant in the maximal convergence area between the the transequatorial inflow and the trade winds. The high level divergence is good, with strong wind shear area north and south of the system in relation with the subtropical jet and the eastern equatorial jet. But the wind shear near the center is low to moderate (10/20kt CIMSS data). The Dvorak DT for the system is 2.0- at 12Z (tropical disturbance).

The environmental conditions are rather conducive for a deepening in the next 48h. According to its current path, the system will encounter warmer waters south-east of the Chagos archipelago. The wind shear will stay low to moderate and the divergence still good. Several deterministic models forecast a less or more intense deepening after friday. the french model Arpege is the most reactive meanwhile CEP and UKMO suggest a slower cyclogenesis. The EPS product for cyclogenesis gives a 60% probability for a tropical storm developpement. But this figure is decreasing in comparison with yesterday. GFS do not forecast an important deepening.

The system is expected to move southwestwards, before turning southwards where conditions will be less conducive after Sunday (south of 10S) with a stronger wind shear. The interval for a deepning is limited to the newt 48hours with a moderate intensity at its maximum.

The likelihood of development of a tropical depression south of the Chagos Archipelago is moderate Friday and Saturday. Weakening forecasted beyond.


NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of the genesis of a tropical depression over the basin and within the next five days:

Very low: less than 10% Moderate: 30% to 50% Very high: over 90%
Low: 10% to 30% High: 50% to 90%

The Southwestern Indian Ocean basin extends from the equator to 40S and from the african coastlines to 90E.
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Re: SWIND: 94S

#4 Postby wxman57 » Thu Nov 19, 2015 10:20 am

Looks like this system is already a tropical storm. No ASCAT to confirm yet. It's at the very least a depression now.
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#5 Postby supercane » Thu Nov 19, 2015 3:36 pm

ABIO10 PGTW 191800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/191800Z-201800ZNOV2015//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.7S 80.6E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.7S 76.9E, APPROXIMATELY 252 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
BROAD ALBEIT WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH SLOWLY
CONSOLIDATING BANDS. AN 191622Z SSMI-S MICROWAVE PASS SHOWS THE
DEEPER CONVECTION IS FRAGMENTED ALONG THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN AN AREA OF LOW-
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THAT IS MOSTLY OFFSET BY EXCELLENT
RADIAL OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AT 28-30 DEGREES CELSIUS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. NUMERIC
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE INTENSIFICATION TO A 35-KNOT SYSTEM IN 60-66
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.//
NNNN
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#6 Postby 1900hurricane » Fri Nov 20, 2015 12:30 am

JTWC needs to put out a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert for this ASAP. Don't know why they haven't yet honestly.
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#7 Postby supercane » Fri Nov 20, 2015 12:58 am

ZCZC 230
WTIO30 FMEE 200100
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 2/1/20152016
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 1
2.A POSITION 2015/11/20 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.8 S / 74.6 E
(NINE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY FOUR DECIMAL
SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 17 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/D 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1003 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/11/20 12 UTC: 10.2 S / 73.3 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
24H: 2015/11/21 00 UTC: 10.5 S / 72.7 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2015/11/21 12 UTC: 10.9 S / 72.3 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2015/11/22 00 UTC: 11.6 S / 72.0 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2015/11/22 12 UTC: 12.5 S / 72.4 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2015/11/23 00 UTC: 13.4 S / 73.2 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2015/11/24 00 UTC: 15.8 S / 75.8 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW
120H: 2015/11/25 00 UTC: 17.4 S / 76.4 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
FT=2.0- CI=2.0
THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS STILL FLUCTUATED DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS
ASSOCIATED WITH BROKEN CONVECTIVE FEATURES. SINCE 21Z AND WITH THE
FAVORABLE DIURNAL CYCLE, THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS INCREASING NEAR
THE CENTER AND ALSO WITHIN PERIPHERAL BANDS (MAINLY TO THE SOUTH).
SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT OF THE BANDING FEATURES IS STILL SEEN. THE UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE REMAINS IMPRESSIVE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH A WELL
MARKED OUTFLOW OVER THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND ALL THE SOUTHERN
SECTOR. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES THAT IS
FAIRLY CONSISTENT AMONG THE AVAILABLE AGENCIES.
THE ONLY AVAILABLE FIX TONIGHT (N19 AMSUB AT 2118Z) SUGGEST THAT THE
SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO TRACK WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARDS AT STILL A FAST
MOTION. OVER THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A WEAK LOW TO MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE, THE SYSTEM SHOULD START TO SLOW DOWN TODAY AND CONTINUE TO
BEND WESTWARDS. FRIDAY NIGHT, THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN,
LEAVING A SIGNIFICANT WEAKNESS IN THE PRESSURE FIELD TO THE SOUTH OF
THE SYSTEM. AN EQUATORIAL MID LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE
EAST-NORTH-EAST OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY STEERED THE SYSTEM
SOUTHWARDS AND THEN SOUTHEASTWARDS FROM SATURDAY AND BEYOND WITH A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD MOTION. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS BETWEEN
THE AVERAGE OF ALL THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE AND THE AVERAGE TRACK OF
UK-GFS-EURO OF 12Z.
THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION IS CURRENTLY SLOW DUE TO THE MARGINAL LOW
LEVEL OVERALL STRUCTURE AS REVEALED EARLIER TONIGHT BY THE ASCAT
PASS. HOWEVER, THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TODAY AND WITH A
GOOD UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND HIGH SST, SOME STEADY STRENGTHENING
IS LIKELY LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. SUNDAY, THE NORTHERLY SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE AND THIS SHOULD CALL THE END OF THE FAVORABLE
WINDOW FOR INTENSIFICATION. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGEST A MODEST
TROPICAL CYCLONE AT ITS BEST ... AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE CURRENT
INTENSITY FORECAST. CURIOUSLY, THE TWO INTERMEDIATE RUNS OF THE EURO
TODAY (AT 06Z AND 18Z) DO NOT DEVELOP MORE THAN A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
WITH THIS SYSTEM ...=
NNNN
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SIO: 01 - Tropical Disturbance (INVEST 94S)

#8 Postby jaguarjace » Fri Nov 20, 2015 2:19 am

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#9 Postby Alyono » Fri Nov 20, 2015 3:35 am

probably a cyclone now based upon ASCAT
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SIO: 01 - Tropical Depression (INVEST 94S)

#10 Postby jaguarjace » Fri Nov 20, 2015 5:01 am

ZCZC 412
WTIO30 FMEE 200631
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 3/1/20152016
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1
2.A POSITION 2015/11/20 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.3 S / 72.8 E
(TEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY TWO DECIMAL
EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 16 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/S 0.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: SE: SW: 110 NW:
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/11/20 18 UTC: 10.6 S / 72.1 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
24H: 2015/11/21 06 UTC: 11.1 S / 71.8 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2015/11/21 18 UTC: 11.7 S / 71.8 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2015/11/22 06 UTC: 12.3 S / 72.1 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2015/11/22 18 UTC: 13.4 S / 73.0 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2015/11/23 06 UTC: 14.5 S / 74.3 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2015/11/24 06 UTC: 17.6 S / 76.8 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=2.5- CI=2.5-
DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE SYSTEM DISPLAYS SOME SIGNS OF
ORGANISATION WITH THE EMERGENCE OF A CURVED BAND NEAR THE CENTER,
WHICH SEEMS TO STRENGTHEN SINCE 0300Z. CENTRAL MSLP HAS BEEN
ESTIMATED THANKS TO BUOY NB 1400569 WHICH INDICATED A CORRECTED
PRESSURE OF 1001.6 AT 0400Z. PARTIAL ASCAT SWATH AT 0412Z INDICATES
MAXIMAL WINDS OF 25KT AND LOCALLY 30KT IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
CONSIDERING THESE ELEMENTS AND THE IMPROVING SYSTEM PATTERN,
INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO THE MINIMAL STAGE OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION.
THE SYSTEM KEEPS ON HEADING WESTSOUTHWESTWARD QUITE QUICKLY ON THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE LAST TRACK FORECAST
REMAINS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE. THE SYSTEM SHOULD START TO SLOW
DOWN. FRIDAY NIGHT, THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN, LEAVING A
SIGNIFICANT WEAKNESS IN THE PRESSURE FIELD TO THE SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM. AN EQUATORIAL MID LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST-NORTH-EAST
OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY STEERED THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARDS AND THEN
SOUTHEASTWARDS FROM SATURDAY AND BEYOND WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
FORWARD MOTION. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS BETWEEN THE AVERAGE OF ALL
THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE AND THE AVERAGE TRACK OF UK-GFS-EURO OF 12Z.
TODAY, THE ORGANIZATION SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPROVE. WITH A GOOD UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND HIGH SST, SOME STEADY STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY
LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. SUNDAY, THE NORTHERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
INCREASE AND THIS SHOULD CALL THE END OF THE FAVORABLE WINDOW FOR
INTENSIFICATION. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGEST A MODEST TROPICAL
CYCLONE AT ITS BEST ... AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE CURRENT
INTENSITY FORECAST.=
NNNN

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Image
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#11 Postby supercane » Fri Nov 20, 2015 10:21 am

WTIO30 FMEE 201230
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/1/20152016
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1
2.A POSITION 2015/11/20 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.0 S / 71.9 E
(TEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY ONE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 7 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :28 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: SE: 110 SW: 110 NW:
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/11/21 00 UTC: 10.5 S / 71.2 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
24H: 2015/11/21 12 UTC: 11.0 S / 70.7 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
36H: 2015/11/22 00 UTC: 11.9 S / 70.6 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
48H: 2015/11/22 12 UTC: 13.1 S / 71.3 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
60H: 2015/11/23 00 UTC: 14.6 S / 72.7 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2015/11/23 12 UTC: 16.0 S / 74.5 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2015/11/24 12 UTC: 19.3 S / 77.7 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, LOW
120H: 2015/11/25 12 UTC: 21.4 S / 77.8 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, LOW
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=2.5+ CI=2.5+
DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN KEPT IMPROVING. THE 0826Z 85
GHZ GPM MICROWAVE SHOWED BETTER AND BETTER DEFINED LLCC WITH TIGHLY
WOUNDED BANDING AROUND THE CENTER.
THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK REMAINS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT IS
SLIGHLY SHIFTED WESTWARD. THE SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO SLOW DOWN AND ITS
TRAJECTORY TO BEND SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE
PRESSURE FIELD TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. AN EQUATORIAL MID LEVEL
RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST-NORTH-EAST OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY
STEERED THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARDS AND THEN SOUTHEASTWARDS FROM
SATURDAY AND BEYOND WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD MOTION.
ALONG THIS TRACK, ENVIRONNEMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN GOOD WITH A
GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, 2 OUTFLOWS AND A WEAK VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR. THIS WINDOW FOR INTENSIFICATION SHOULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM
TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN UP TO THE GREATER STAGE OF TROPICAL STORM.
BUT ON SATURDAY EVENING, NORTHERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR SHOULD
INCREASE AHEAD A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND THE WINDOW FOR
INTENSIFICATION SHOULD BEGIN TO CLOSE. ON SUNDAY, VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS
GOING TO BECOME MODERATE TO STRONG AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD QUICKLY
WEAKEN.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WTXS21 PGTW 200730
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.7S 74.0E TO 12.9S 69.3E WITHIN
THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 200700Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 9.9S 73.1E. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.7S 76.9E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.9S 73.1E, APPROXIMATELY 155 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
200230Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE REVEAL DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING BEGINNING
TO CONSOLIDATE AND WRAP TIGHTLY INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW,
AND LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, ALONG-TRACK
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT 28-30 DEGREES CELSIUS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. NUMERIC MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE
SYSTEM INTENSIFYING TO 50 KNOTS BY TAU 36. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
210730Z.//
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#12 Postby NotoSans » Fri Nov 20, 2015 10:47 am

JTWC upgrades it to TC 03S at 12Z.
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#13 Postby supercane » Fri Nov 20, 2015 10:58 am

For some reason not showing up on JTWC's website. If RMSC La Réunion upgrades to TS strength, then the Mauritius weather service will assign the season's first name, Annabelle.
WTXS51 PGTW 201500
WARNING ATCG MIL 03S SIO 151120143011
2015112012 03S THREE 001 01 270 14 SATL 030
T000 099S 0717E 035
T012 103S 0709E 040 R034 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 110S 0703E 045 R034 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 118S 0702E 055 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 055 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 055 NW QD
T048 127S 0706E 060 R050 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD
T072 150S 0726E 050 R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 055 NW QD
T096 176S 0750E 035
T120 200S 0751E 025
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 001
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201200Z --- NEAR 9.9S 71.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 9.9S 71.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 10.3S 70.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 11.0S 70.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 11.8S 70.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 12.7S 70.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 15.0S 72.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 17.6S 75.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 20.0S 75.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
201500Z POSITION NEAR 10.0S 71.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 175 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 210300Z AND 211500Z.//
0315111806 33S 820E 20
0315111812 47S 812E 20
0315111818 56S 802E 20
0315111900 64S 791E 25
0315111906 69S 781E 25
0315111912 78S 772E 25
0315111918 88S 761E 25
0315112000 95S 748E 25
0315112006 99S 731E 30
0315112012 99S 717E 35
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#14 Postby supercane » Fri Nov 20, 2015 3:30 pm

WTIO30 FMEE 201806

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/1/20152016
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1

2.A POSITION 2015/11/20 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.0 S / 71.3 E
(TEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY ONE DECIMAL THREE
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/S 0.0/0 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 60 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 60




7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/11/21 06 UTC: 10.3 S / 70.8 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2015/11/21 18 UTC: 11.1 S / 70.3 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2015/11/22 06 UTC: 12.2 S / 70.5 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2015/11/22 18 UTC: 13.1 S / 71.1 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
60H: 2015/11/23 06 UTC: 14.4 S / 72.3 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW
72H: 2015/11/23 18 UTC: 16.0 S / 74.1 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2015/11/24 18 UTC: 17.0 S / 72.5 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, LOW


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=2.5 CI=2.5+

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS SHOWN A SLIGHT
WEAKENING, WITH DIURNE EFFECT ALWAYS IMPACTING DEEP CONVECTION. THE
1346Z SSMIS MICROWAVE SHOW A WELL DIFENED LLCC INSIDE CURVED BAND IN
37, BUT LESS DEFINED IN 85.

THE CURRENT WESTWARDS TRACK HAS CLEARLY SLOW DOWN DURING THE NEXT
HOURS, ALL AVAILABLE NWP FORECAST TRACK TO BEND SOUTH SOUTHWESTWARDS
THEN SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE PRESSURE FIELD TO THE
SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM.
AN EQUATORIAL MID LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN THE
EAST-NORTH-EAST OF THE SYSTEM AND SHOULD GRADUALLY STEERED THE SYSTEM
SOUTHWARDS AND THEN SOUTHEASTWARDS FROM SATURDAY AND BEYOND WITH A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD MOTION.

ALONG THIS TRACK, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVOURABLE WITH A
GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, WEAK VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND TWO OUTFLOW
CHANNELS UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING. THIS WINDOW FOR INTENSIFICATION
SHOULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN UP TO THE GREATER
STAGE OF TROPICAL STORM.
BUT ON SUNDAY, NORTHERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AHEAD A
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD QUICKLY WEAKEN. ON TUESDAY,
THE RESIDUAL LOW SHOULD TRACK EASTWARDS IN THE TRADES FLOW FILLING UP
PROGRESSIVELY.=
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#15 Postby 1900hurricane » Fri Nov 20, 2015 4:48 pm

How does the Meteo-France's numbering system work? I am unfamiliar with it.
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Re: SWIND: 1 - Tropical Depression

#16 Postby supercane » Fri Nov 20, 2015 6:41 pm

:uarrow: From the Tropical Cyclone Operational Plan for the South-West Indian Ocean, "in the South-West Indian Ocean, the cyclone season lasts from 1 July of year N to 30 June of year N+1." So when you look at lines 0 and 1 of the warning, it means that this is the first system for which RSMC La Réunion has issued warnings for the 2015-2016 cyclone season. Altogether, the system is similar to what NHC, JTWC, and CPHC do with numbering tropical depressions.
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#17 Postby supercane » Fri Nov 20, 2015 8:04 pm

Upgraded to Moderate Tropical Storm Annabelle.

WTIO30 FMEE 210014

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/1/20152016
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 1 (ANNABELLE)

2.A POSITION 2015/11/21 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.0 S / 70.9 E
(TEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY DECIMAL NINE
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : UNDETERMINED

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 90 NW: 70
34 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: NW:



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/11/21 12 UTC: 10.8 S / 70.4 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2015/11/22 00 UTC: 11.7 S / 70.3 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2015/11/22 12 UTC: 12.9 S / 71.1 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2015/11/23 00 UTC: 14.1 S / 72.3 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
60H: 2015/11/23 12 UTC: 15.4 S / 73.9 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
72H: 2015/11/24 00 UTC: 16.6 S / 74.7 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, REMNANT LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2015/11/25 00 UTC: 18.7 S / 73.3 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, LOW
120H: 2015/11/26 00 UTC: 19.6 S / 71.1 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=CI=3.0-

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE
CENTER INTO A IRREGULAR CDO PATTERN, WITH A LARGE BANDE IN THE EAST.

THE CURRENT WESTWARDS TRACK HAS CLEARLY SLOW DOWN DURING THE NEXT
HOURS, ALL AVAILABLE NWP FORECAST TRACK TO BEND SOUTH SOUTHWESTWARDS
THEN SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE PRESSURE FIELD TO THE
SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM.
AN EQUATORIAL MID LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN THE
EAST-NORTH-EAST OF THE SYSTEM AND SHOULD GRADUALLY STEERED THE SYSTEM
SOUTHWARDS AND THEN SOUTHEASTWARDS FROM SATURDAY AND BEYOND WITH A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD MOTION.

ALONG THIS TRACK, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVOURABLE WITH A
GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, WEAK VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND TWO OUTFLOW
CHANNELS UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING. THIS WINDOW FOR INTENSIFICATION
SHOULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN UP TO THE GREATER
STAGE OF TROPICAL STORM.
BUT ON SUNDAY, NORTHERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AHEAD A
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD QUICKLY WEAKEN. ON TUESDAY,
THE RESIDUAL LOW SHOULD TRACK EASTWARDS IN THE TRADES FLOW FILLING UP
PROGRESSIVELY.=
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#18 Postby supercane » Fri Nov 20, 2015 9:37 pm

WTXS51 PGTW 210300
WARNING ATCG MIL 03S SIO 151121034651
2015112100 03S THREE 002 01 260 06 SATL 060
T000 102S 0707E 035
T012 106S 0700E 040 R034 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 113S 0696E 045 R034 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 124S 0698E 050 R034 055 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 055 NW QD
T048 134S 0707E 055 R050 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD
T072 153S 0725E 045 R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 055 NW QD
T096 177S 0741E 030
T120 201S 0745E 025
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210000Z --- NEAR 10.2S 70.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 10.2S 70.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 10.6S 70.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 11.3S 69.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 12.4S 69.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 13.4S 70.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 15.3S 72.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 17.7S 74.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 20.1S 74.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
210300Z POSITION NEAR 10.3S 70.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 214 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z IS
8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 211500Z AND 220300Z.//
0315111806 33S 820E 20
0315111812 47S 812E 20
0315111818 56S 802E 20
0315111900 64S 791E 25
0315111906 69S 781E 25
0315111912 78S 772E 25
0315111918 88S 761E 25
0315112000 95S 748E 25
0315112006 99S 731E 30
0315112012 100S 721E 35
0315112018 101S 713E 35
0315112100 102S 707E 35
NNNN
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#19 Postby supercane » Sat Nov 21, 2015 3:18 pm

WTXS51 PGTW 211500
WARNING ATCG MIL 03S SIO 151121164053
2015112112 03S ANNABELLE 003 01 160 05 SATL 060
T000 109S 0716E 045 R034 085 NE QD 100 SE QD 095 SW QD 085 NW QD
T012 121S 0715E 050 R034 090 NE QD 115 SE QD 100 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 132S 0718E 055 R050 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 120 SE QD 105 SW QD 095 NW QD
T036 148S 0733E 060 R050 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 125 SE QD 110 SW QD 100 NW QD
T048 165S 0751E 055 R050 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 120 SE QD 105 SW QD 095 NW QD
T072 211S 0793E 045 R034 090 NE QD 115 SE QD 100 SW QD 090 NW QD
T096 236S 0806E 030
AMP
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ANNABELLE) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ANNABELLE) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211200Z --- NEAR 10.9S 71.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.9S 71.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 12.1S 71.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 13.2S 71.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 14.8S 73.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 16.5S 75.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 21.1S 79.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 23.6S 80.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
211500Z POSITION NEAR 11.2S 71.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ANNABELLE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 234 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 220300Z AND 221500Z.//
0315111806 33S 820E 20
0315111812 47S 812E 20
0315111818 56S 802E 20
0315111900 64S 791E 25
0315111906 69S 781E 25
0315111912 78S 772E 25
0315111918 88S 761E 25
0315112000 95S 748E 25
0315112006 99S 731E 30
0315112012 100S 721E 35
0315112018 101S 713E 35
0315112100 102S 707E 35
0315112106 104S 714E 45
0315112112 109S 716E 45
NNNN
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#20 Postby supercane » Sat Nov 21, 2015 3:18 pm

WTIO30 FMEE 211849

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/1/20152016
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 1 (ANNABELLE)

2.A POSITION 2015/11/21 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.1 S / 71.7 E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY ONE DECIMAL
SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 150 NW: 70
34 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 70 NW: 50



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/11/22 06 UTC: 12.3 S / 72.2 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2015/11/22 18 UTC: 13.5 S / 72.8 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2015/11/23 06 UTC: 15.1 S / 73.8 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2015/11/23 18 UTC: 16.8 S / 75.4 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2015/11/24 06 UTC: 18.4 S / 77.0 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
72H: 2015/11/24 18 UTC: 20.3 S / 78.5 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=CI=3.5-
SINCE SUNSET, DEEP CONVECTION HAS STRENGTHENED IN THE VICINITY OF
LLCC. 1339Z 37GHZ WINDSAT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWED A CLEARLY DEFINED
LLCC COMPARED TO PREVIOUS 0104Z SWATH. ADDITIONALLY, 85GHZ 1457Z
SSMIS MICROWAVE SHOWS A ALMOST CLOSED EYE PATTERN. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS INCREASED AT 45KT CONSIDERING THE AFOREMENTIONED
MICROWAVE DATA. WIND FIELD HAVE BEEN REEVALUATED THANKS TO 1625Z
ASCAT SWATH.

THE CURRENT SOUTH-SOUTHESTWARDS TRACK IS SLOW DURING THE LAST HOURS.
AVAILABLE NWP ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO FORECAST A SIMILAR MOVEMENT
TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE PRESSURE FIELD TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM.
THIS TRACK IS SUPPORTED BY THE PRESENCE OF AN EQUATORIAL MID LEVEL
RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN THE EAST-NORTH-EAST OF THE SYSTEM.

ALONG THIS TRACK, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVOURABLE WITH A
GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, WEAK VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND ONE POLAR
OUTFLOW CHANNEL. THIS WINDOW FOR INTENSIFICATION SHOULD ALLOW THE
SYSTEM TO SLIGHTLY STRENGTHEN OVER NIGHT.

BUT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON, NORTHERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR SHOULD INCREASE
AHEAD OF A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND BECOME MODERATE TO STRONG.
ANNABELLE SHOULD WEAKEN QUICKLY. MOREOVER, THE HEAT CONTENT WILL
BECOME INSUFFICIENT SOUTH OF 15S. FROM TUESDAY, THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION COULD INTERACT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND SUBTROPICAL JET
AND ALLOW A TEMPORARY DEEPENING. FROM WEDNESDAY, AS THE UPPER TROUGH
SHOULD SHIFT EASTWARDS, THE LLCC SHOULD FILL UP.=
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