SWIND: ANNABELLE - Post-Tropical

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
supercane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2847
Joined: Wed Sep 16, 2009 8:27 pm

#21 Postby supercane » Sat Nov 21, 2015 7:56 pm

WTIO30 FMEE 220027

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/1/20152016
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 1 (ANNABELLE)

2.A POSITION 2015/11/22 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.7 S / 72.0 E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY TWO DECIMAL
ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 90 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 70
34 KT NE: 40 SE: 60 SW: 70 NW: 40



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/11/22 12 UTC: 13.1 S / 72.6 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2015/11/23 00 UTC: 14.6 S / 73.3 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2015/11/23 12 UTC: 16.0 S / 74.3 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2015/11/24 00 UTC: 17.6 S / 76.2 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2015/11/24 12 UTC: 20.0 S / 77.8 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
72H: 2015/11/25 00 UTC: 21.6 S / 79.0 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2015/11/26 00 UTC: 23.0 S / 77.8 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, REMNANT LOW


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=CI=3.5-
DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, DEEP CONVECTION HAS REMAINED STRONG IN
VICINITY OF THE CENTER AND EVEN STRENGTHENED IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE. THE LLCC IS NOW UNDER AN EMBEDDED CENTER PATTERN, MAKING
THE EXACT POSITIONING DIFFICULT WITHOUT ANY RECENT MICROWAVE DATA.

THE CURRENT SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARDS TRACK IS SLOW DURING THE LAST HOURS.
AVAILABLE NWP ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO FORECAST A SIMILAR MOVEMENT
TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE PRESSURE FIELD TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM.
THIS TRACK IS SUPPORTED BY THE PRESENCE OF AN EQUATORIAL MID LEVEL
RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN THE EAST-NORTH-EAST OF THE SYSTEM.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN RELATIVELY FAVOURABLE WITH A GOOD
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND ONE POLAR OUTFLOW CHANNEL. HOWEVER, WITH
THE SYSTEM SHIFTING ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE, NORTHERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE DAY. THE WINDOW
FOR INTENSIFICATION SHOULD THEN CLOSE AROUND MIDDAY, ANNABELLE
REACHING ITS MAXIMUM INTENSITY.

OVER THE NEXT NIGHT, NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR SHOULD INCREASE
AHEAD OF A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND QUICKLY BECOME MODERATE TO STRONG.
ANNABELLE SHOULD WEAKEN QUICKLY. MOREOVER, THE HEAT CONTENT WILL
BECOME INSUFFICIENT SOUTH OF 15S. FROM TUESDAY, THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION COULD INTERACT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND SUBTROPICAL JET
AND ALLOW A TEMPORARY DEEPENING. FROM WEDNESDAY, AS THE UPPER TROUGH
SHOULD SHIFT EASTWARDS, THE LLCC SHOULD FILL UP PROGRESSIVELY. THE
TRACK OF THE RESIDUAL LOW SHOULD THEN BEND EASTWARD STEERED BY THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE QUICK BUILD.=
0 likes   

supercane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2847
Joined: Wed Sep 16, 2009 8:27 pm

#22 Postby supercane » Sat Nov 21, 2015 8:56 pm

WTXS51 PGTW 220300
WARNING ATCG MIL 03S SIO 151122030906
2015112200 03S ANNABELLE 004 01 270 02 SATL 060
T000 115S 0713E 050 R034 085 NE QD 100 SE QD 095 SW QD 085 NW QD
T012 125S 0714E 055 R050 045 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 120 SE QD 055 SW QD 075 NW QD
T024 141S 0726E 055 R050 040 NE QD 035 SE QD 000 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 095 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 158S 0743E 060 R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 095 SE QD 055 SW QD 075 NW QD
T048 176S 0760E 055 R050 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 045 SE QD 060 SW QD 105 NW QD
T072 207S 0785E 040 R034 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 050 NW QD
T096 237S 0801E 025
AMP
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ANNABELLE) WARNING NR 004
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ANNABELLE) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220000Z --- NEAR 11.5S 71.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.5S 71.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 12.5S 71.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 14.1S 72.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 15.8S 74.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 17.6S 76.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 20.7S 78.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 23.7S 80.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
220300Z POSITION NEAR 11.8S 71.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ANNABELLE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 273 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 15
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221500Z AND 230300Z.//
0315111806 33S 820E 20
0315111812 47S 812E 20
0315111818 56S 802E 20
0315111900 64S 791E 25
0315111906 69S 781E 25
0315111912 78S 772E 25
0315111918 88S 761E 25
0315112000 95S 748E 25
0315112006 99S 731E 30
0315112012 100S 721E 35
0315112018 101S 713E 35
0315112100 102S 707E 35
0315112106 104S 714E 45
0315112112 109S 716E 45
0315112118 115S 715E 50
0315112200 115S 713E 50
NNNN
0 likes   

supercane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2847
Joined: Wed Sep 16, 2009 8:27 pm

#23 Postby supercane » Sun Nov 22, 2015 9:50 am

WTIO30 FMEE 220621
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/1/20152016
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 1 (ANNABELLE)
2.A POSITION 2015/11/22 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.9 S / 71.7 E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY ONE DECIMAL SEVEN
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH 4 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :37 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 90 SE: 190 SW: 190 NW: 90
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 70
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 0 / 0 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/11/22 18 UTC: 13.5 S / 72.0 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
24H: 2015/11/23 06 UTC: 14.7 S / 73.0 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
36H: 2015/11/23 18 UTC: 16.8 S / 74.5 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
48H: 2015/11/24 06 UTC: 18.3 S / 76.8 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
60H: 2015/11/24 18 UTC: 20.5 S / 78.7 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2015/11/25 06 UTC: 22.7 S / 80.3 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, LOW
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2015/11/26 06 UTC: 24.0 S / 78.2 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, REMNANT LOW
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=3.0+ AND CI=3.5-
DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING DEEP CENTRAL
CONVECTION FLUCTUATING. THE SYSTEM IS IN A SMALL CDO PATTERN, WITH A
LARGE BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN SECTOR.
THE LAST MICRO-WAVE PICTURES (SSMIS F-18 22/0206) DEPICT A DISCONTINUED
DEEP CONVECTION BAND AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF CENTRAL CORE.
THE CURRENT SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARDS TRACK WAS RATHER SLOW
DURING THE LAST HOURS.
AVAILABLE NWP ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO FORECAST A SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST
MOVEMENT TOWARDS A LARGE TROUGH SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM.
THIS TRACK IS SUPPORTED BY THE PRESENCE OF AN EQUATORIAL MID LEVEL
RIDGE IN THE NORTH-EAST.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE REMAINED RATHER FAVOURABLE, WITH
GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND ONE POLAR OUTFLOW CHANNEL, AHEAD OF
A UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH IN THE WEST. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NOW ON
THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, AND WITH THE APPROACHING
TROUGH, THE NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER
THE NEXT HOURS.
OVER THE NEXT NIGHT, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME CLEARLY UNFAVORABLE. THE NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR
SHOULD INCREASE AND QUICKLY BECOME MODERATE TO STRONG. MOREOVER,
THE HEAT CONTENT WILL BECOME INSUFFICIENT SOUTH OF 15S. ON TUESDAY, THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION COULD INTERACT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND
SUBTROPICAL JET AND ALLOW A TEMPORARY DEEPENING. FROM WEDNESDAY, AS
THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD SHIFT EASTWARDS, THE LLCC SHOULD FILL UP
PROGRESSIVELY. THE TRACK OF THE RESIDUAL LOW SHOULD THEN BEND
EASTWARD STEERED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE QUICK BUILD.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WTIO30 FMEE 221237

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/1/20152016
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 1 (ANNABELLE)

2.A POSITION 2015/11/22 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.6 S / 71.9 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY ONE DECIMAL
NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/S 0.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 90 SE: 190 SW: 190 NW: 90
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 70



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/11/23 00 UTC: 14.1 S / 73.0 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2015/11/23 12 UTC: 15.8 S / 74.7 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2015/11/24 00 UTC: 18.0 S / 77.4 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2015/11/24 12 UTC: 21.2 S / 79.2 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
60H: 2015/11/25 00 UTC: 22.7 S / 79.7 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW
72H: 2015/11/25 12 UTC: 23.8 S / 79.5 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2015/11/26 12 UTC: 23.1 S / 77.4 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, REMNANT LOW


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=3.0- AND CI=3.5-

ANNABELLE SHOWS A WEAKENING TREND, WITH A RECENT SHEARED PATTERN
CONFIGURATION AND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION APPEARING NORTH OF THE
DEEP CONVECTION.
THE CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION TENDS TO DISORGANIZE DURING THE PAST SIX
HOURS.

THE LLCC IS MOVING FASTER SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARD.

THE AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT FOR AN ACCELERATING
SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARD MOVEMENT, BECOMING SOUTH-EAST FROM THE NEXT
NIGHT, TOWARDS A WIDE MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH.
ON THIS PATH, ANNABELLE IS FORECAST TO ENCOUNTER TOMORROW LOW HEAT
POTENTIAL SEAS, SOUTH OF 15S.
THE NORTH-WESTERLY UPPER WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN ABOVE THE SYSTEM,
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVELS TROUGH.
DURING THE NEXT NIGHT AND TOMORROW, THE IMPACT OF THE UPPER WINDS
SHOULD BE OFFSET BY THE FAST MOVEMENT SOUTH-EASTWARD OF THE LLCC.
ON TUESDAY, THE LLCC IS LIKELY TO INTERACT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND
SUBTROPICAL JET AND ALLOW A TEMPORARY DEEPENING.
FROM WEDNESDAY, AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD SHIFT EASTWARDS, THE
WESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR WILL BECOME VERY UNFAVORABLE, AND THE
LLCC IS LIKELY TO FILL UP RAPIDLY. THE TRACK OF THE RESIDUAL LOW
SHOULD THEN BEND EASTWARD, BETWEEN 20S AND 25S, STEERED BY THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.=

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WTXS51 PGTW 221500
WARNING ATCG MIL 03S SIO 151122161040
2015112212 03S ANNABELLE 005 01 140 09 SATL 040
T000 127S 0722E 055 R050 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 085 NE QD 100 SE QD 095 SW QD 085 NW QD
T012 143S 0735E 060 R050 060 NE QD 055 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 115 SE QD 070 SW QD 105 NW QD
T024 160S 0752E 055 R050 045 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 090 SE QD 065 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 181S 0773E 045 R034 065 NE QD 075 SE QD 070 SW QD 055 NW QD
T048 203S 0790E 040 R034 040 NE QD 065 SE QD 070 SW QD 055 NW QD
T072 233S 0800E 030
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ANNABELLE) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ANNABELLE) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221200Z --- NEAR 12.7S 72.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.7S 72.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 14.3S 73.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 16.0S 75.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 18.1S 77.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 20.3S 79.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 23.3S 80.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
221500Z POSITION NEAR 13.1S 72.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (ANNABELLE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 336 NM
SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
SHOWS A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH TIGHT
SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. THE CONVECTIVE BANDING
ALONG THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE HAS BECOME FRAGMENTED AND MOSTLY
DISCONNECTED FROM THE LLCC; HOWEVER, THE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS
DEEPENED. THIS IMPROVEMENT IN CENTRAL CONVECTION AND THE INCREASE IN
AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES TO T3.5 (55 KNOTS), SUPPORTS THE
SLIGHT INCREASE IN CURRENT INTENSITY. A 220816Z GPM 89GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOWS A LARGE MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE WITH THE BULK OF
CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS BASED ON THE LLCC IN THE MSI LOOP AND SUPPORTED BY SATELLITE
FIXES FROM PGTW AND KNES. TC 03S IS BEGINNING TO ACCELERATE
SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
TO THE EAST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) BEING
OFFSET BY A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. THE CYCLONE WILL
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS CONDITIONS REMAIN
MOSTLY FAVORABLE. BEYOND TAU 12, TC ANNABELLE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS VWS RAPIDLY INCREASES DUE TO
INTERACTION WITH THE STRONG MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. THE SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO FULLY DISSIPATE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48
PRIOR TO DISSIPATION. THIS MODEL AGREEMENT LEADS TO HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS
17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230300Z AND 231500Z.//
0315111806 33S 820E 20
0315111812 47S 812E 20
0315111818 56S 802E 20
0315111900 64S 791E 25
0315111906 69S 781E 25
0315111912 78S 772E 25
0315111918 88S 761E 25
0315112000 95S 748E 25
0315112006 99S 731E 30
0315112012 100S 721E 35
0315112018 100S 718E 35
0315112100 101S 715E 35
0315112106 104S 714E 45
0315112112 107S 714E 45
0315112118 111S 714E 50
0315112200 116S 715E 50
0315112206 120S 716E 50
0315112212 127S 722E 55
0315112212 127S 722E 55
NNNN
0 likes   

supercane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2847
Joined: Wed Sep 16, 2009 8:27 pm

#24 Postby supercane » Mon Nov 23, 2015 4:58 pm

WTXS51 PGTW 231500
WARNING ATCG MIL 03S SIO 151123153209
2015112312 03S ANNABELLE 007 01 130 23 SATL 030
T000 167S 0767E 055 R050 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 085 SW QD 060 NW QD
T012 193S 0790E 050 R034 085 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 065 NW QD
T024 222S 0807E 045 R034 095 NE QD 085 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD
T036 247S 0815E 030
AMP
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ANNABELLE) WARNING NR 007
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ANNABELLE) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230000Z --- NEAR 14.3S 73.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S 73.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 16.4S 75.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 18.5S 77.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 20.9S 78.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 23.6S 79.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
230300Z POSITION NEAR 14.8S 74.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ANNABELLE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 436 NM SOUTH
OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z IS 18 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 231500Z AND 240300Z.//
0315111806 33S 820E 20
0315111812 47S 812E 20
0315111818 56S 802E 20
0315111900 64S 791E 25
0315111906 69S 781E 25
0315111912 78S 772E 25
0315111918 88S 761E 25
0315112000 95S 748E 25
0315112006 99S 731E 30
0315112012 100S 721E 35
0315112018 100S 718E 35
0315112100 101S 715E 35
0315112106 104S 714E 45
0315112112 107S 714E 45
0315112118 111S 714E 50
0315112200 116S 715E 50
0315112206 120S 716E 50
0315112212 127S 722E 55
0315112212 127S 722E 55
0315112218 134S 726E 55
0315112218 134S 726E 55
0315112300 143S 735E 60
0315112300 143S 735E 60
NNNN


---------------------------------------------------------------------------


WTIO30 FMEE 231820 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 17/1/20152016
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1 (ANNABELLE)

2.A POSITION 2015/11/23 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.8 S / 77.6 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SEVEN
DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 18 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/4.0/W 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 989 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 280 SW: 200 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 60
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 0


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/11/24 06 UTC: 20.5 S / 79.6 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H: 2015/11/24 18 UTC: 22.9 S / 80.4 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2015/11/25 06 UTC: 23.9 S / 80.7 E, MAX WIND=030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2015/11/25 18 UTC: 24.8 S / 80.1 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW
60H: 2015/11/26 06 UTC: 24.9 S / 78.8 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW
72H: 2015/11/26 18 UTC: 24.6 S / 77.3 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=3.0 CI=4.0-

LATEST MICROWAVE DATA (SSMIS AT 1135Z) SHOWS THAT THE INNER CORE
CONTINUES TO DETERIORATE DUE TO THE DUAL INFLUENCE OF INCREASING
NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR (NEAR 35 KT AT 12Z ACCORDING CIMSS DATA) AND
COOLER SST.

THE NWP MODELS REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT FOR A SOUTHEASTWARDS
MOVEMENT TOWARDS A LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH. ON THIS TRACK AND
WITH THE EXPECTED INTERACTION TONIGHT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
LOCATED TO THE SOUTH-WEST OF THE STORM SHOULD BRING SOME BAROCLINIC
CONDITIONS WITHIN THE SYSTEM. THEREFORE, ANNABELLE IS EXPECTED TO
GAIN SOME HYBRID CHARACTERISTICS AND BECOME POST-TROPICAL TONIGHT OR
TUESDAY MORNING

FROM WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND, AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD SHIFT
EASTWARDS, THE WESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR WILL BECOME VERY
UNFAVORABLE, AND THE LLCC IS LIKELY TO FILL UP RAPIDLY. THE TRACK OF
THE RESIDUAL LOW SHOULD BEND WESTWARDS THURSDAY, BETWEEN 20S AND 25S,
STEERED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.=
0 likes   

supercane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2847
Joined: Wed Sep 16, 2009 8:27 pm

#25 Postby supercane » Mon Nov 23, 2015 7:47 pm

WTIO30 FMEE 240028 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 18/1/20152016
1.A POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1 (EX-ANNABELLE)

2.A POSITION 2015/11/24 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.2 S / 78.8 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL
EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 16 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 991 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 280 SW: 280 NW: 90
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 60



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/11/24 12 UTC: 21.6 S / 80.4 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H: 2015/11/25 00 UTC: 23.8 S / 81.8 E, MAX WIND=030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2015/11/25 12 UTC: 24.5 S / 81.7 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, LOW
48H: 2015/11/26 00 UTC: 24.7 S / 81.1 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW
60H: 2015/11/26 12 UTC: 24.6 S / 79.7 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, REMNANT LOW


2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS, THE CONVECTION HAS DISORGANIZED AND IS
WARMING, DUE TO THE INCREASING VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AHEAD OF AN UPPER
TROUGH (NORTHWESTERLY VWS 45KT AT 18Z ACCORDING TO THE CIMSS) AND
COOLER SST.
THE SYSTEM HAS GAINED HYBRID CHARACTERISTICS AND BECOME A
POST-TROPICAL STORM.

THE NWP MODELS REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT FOR A SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT
TOWARDS A LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FROM WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND, AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD SHIFT
EASTWARDS, THE WESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR WILL BECOME VERY
UNFAVORABLE, AND THE LLCC IS LIKELY TO FILL UP RAPIDLY. THE TRACK OF
THE RESIDUAL LOW SHOULD BEND WESTWARDS THURSDAY,NORTH OF 25S, STEERED
BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.=
0 likes   

supercane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2847
Joined: Wed Sep 16, 2009 8:27 pm

#26 Postby supercane » Tue Nov 24, 2015 12:07 am

WTXS31 PGTW 240300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ANNABELLE) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ANNABELLE) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z --- NEAR 19.2S 78.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.2S 78.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 21.6S 80.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 23.5S 80.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
240300Z POSITION NEAR 19.8S 78.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (ANNABELLE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 798 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM
FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. CONVECTION IS ALMOST NON-EXISTENT TO THE
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CIRCULATION. THIS IS ALSO EVIDENT ON A 240144Z
F-18 91GHZ IMAGE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI LOOP WITH
GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE HAS BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY
ELONGATED AS IT INTERACTS WITH AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
AND THE ASSOCIATED HIGH NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS WEAKER THAN 12HRS AGO, AND IS ASSESSED AT
45KTS, BASED ON THE LATEST PGTW DVORAK VALUES BETWEEN 2.5/3.5 (35-
55KTS). THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS MARGINAL DUE TO 30-40KTS
VWS, DESPITE GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW OVER THE SYSTEM. TC ANNABELLE IS
ACCELERATING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP
LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. THE CYCLONE WILL
CONTINUE TRACKING INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND WEAKEN DUE TO
INCREASING VWS AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TC 03S WILL
FULLY DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
240000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 241500Z.//
NNNN
0 likes   

supercane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2847
Joined: Wed Sep 16, 2009 8:27 pm

#27 Postby supercane » Tue Nov 24, 2015 9:20 am

WTXS31 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ANNABELLE) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ANNABELLE) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241200Z --- NEAR 22.8S 81.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 25 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 22.8S 81.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 25.6S 82.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
241500Z POSITION NEAR 23.5S 81.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (ANNABELLE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1050 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
25 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BEGUN TO UNRAVEL AND HAS
BECOME FULLY EXPOSED AS THE MAIN CONVECTION IS SIGNIFICANTLY SHEARED
SOUTHEASTWARD. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM HAS DRIFTED INTO AN AREA OF STRONG (GREATER THAN 50 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COLD SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (LESS THAN 26
DEGREES CELSIUS). IN VIEW OF THESE, TC 03S IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY
ERODE AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 12. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 12 FEET.//
NNNN
0 likes   


Return to “2015”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 4 guests