EPAC: SANDRA - Post-Tropical

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#141 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Nov 26, 2015 1:39 am

SAB at 6.0 because of constraints.
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#142 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Nov 26, 2015 1:39 am

NotoSans wrote:Sandra is being underestimated by Dvorak right now. Eye temp is in DG range in GOES-13 imagery and LG range in GOES-15. However, Sandra is possibly not well captured by both satellites due to large viewing angle, which ultimately lead to a lower intensity estimate.


And I can't seem to find a polar orbiting satellite of this thing either.
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#143 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Nov 26, 2015 1:42 am

EP, 22, 201511260600, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1410N, 11020W, , 1, 127, 1, 935, 1, DVRK, , , , , , , , , , , , , , E, TAFB, JS, I, 1, 6565 /////, , , GOES15, CSC, T,
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#144 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Nov 26, 2015 1:42 am

TXPZ24 KNES 260631
TCSENP

A. 22E (SANDRA)

B. 26/0600Z

C. 14.0N

D. 110.3W

E. ONE/GOES-W

F. T6.0/6.0/D2.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS...DG EYE IS SURROUNDED AND EMBEDDED IN W RESULTING IN A DT
OF 6.5 WHICH INCLUDES 0.5 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT. 6 HR AVERAGE YIELDS A
DT OF 6.0. MET = 4.5 AND PT = 5.0. FT IS BASED ON CONSTRAINTS AND 6
HR AVERAGE.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KIBLER
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#145 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Nov 26, 2015 1:45 am

And we have the strongest November hurricane on record

EP, 22, 2015112606, , BEST, 0, 141N, 1103W, 125, 935, HU, 64, NEQ, 30, 25, 15, 25, 1007, 210, 10, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, SANDRA, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 043,

Who would have thought the night before Thanksgiving, we'd be looking at 125 knots in the Eastern Pacific?
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#146 Postby EquusStorm » Thu Nov 26, 2015 3:10 am

Unreal. What a storm. Last few frames, looks to still possibly be strengthening. Could she make a run for cat five before time runs out? And who knew the strongest November Epac hurricane would occur at the END of the month rather than towards the beginning?!
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...but still, though, a lot more interesting than the 2013 season.

Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.

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#147 Postby Hammy » Thu Nov 26, 2015 3:49 am

Yellow Evan wrote:And we have the strongest November hurricane on record


Isn't this the latest EPAC major as well?
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Re: EPAC: SANDRA - Hurricane

#148 Postby arlwx » Thu Nov 26, 2015 4:18 am

HURRICANE SANDRA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP222015
200 AM MST THU NOV 26 2015

Sandra has intensified during the past few hours. The eye has
become quite distinct and is surrounded by an area of very deep
convection. CIMSS ADTs have been oscillating around 6.5, which
is the same as the T-number provided by TAFB. On this basis, the
initial intensity has been increased to 125 kt, making Sandra a
category 4 hurricane.

Most likely, Sandra has already reached its peak intensity, and
although the ocean is still warm, the hurricane is expected to
soon encounter very strong southwesterly shear, which should result
in rapid weakening. This is reflected in both the GFS and the ECMWF
global models which separate the mid-level circulation for the
surface center in about 36 to 48 hours due to shear. Sandra is
expected to be a weakening storm by the time its center passes south
of the southern portion the Baja California peninsula in about 48
hours. The cyclone is forecast to be a dissipating remnant low over
mainland Mexico in about 3 days.

As anticipated, Sandra has turned northward, and the initial motion
is now 350/10. The ridge that was controlling the motion of Sandra
has been eroded by an amplifying mid-latitude trough. This flow
pattern should force the hurricane to recurve soon, and then turn
even more to the north-northeast toward mainland Mexico. The NHC
forecast is very similar to the previous one and is very close to
the multi-model consensus. The ECMWF, however, insists on a track
closer to Baja California and this is not out of the question. A
small deviation to the north of the track will require watches or
warnings for the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula
later this morning, and interests in this area should continue to
monitor the progress of Sandra.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0900Z 14.6N 110.3W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 26/1800Z 16.1N 110.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 27/0600Z 18.0N 110.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 27/1800Z 19.5N 110.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 28/0600Z 21.6N 109.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 29/0600Z 27.0N 106.5W 20 KT 25 MPH
96H 30/0600Z...POST-TROP/INLAND

$$
Forecaster Avila
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It charmed a bit til the latest frames

#149 Postby Cyclenall » Thu Nov 26, 2015 7:54 am

Yellow Evan wrote:And we have the strongest November hurricane on record

EP, 22, 2015112606, , BEST, 0, 141N, 1103W, 125, 935, HU, 64, NEQ, 30, 25, 15, 25, 1007, 210, 10, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, SANDRA, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 043,

Who would have thought the night before Thanksgiving, we'd be looking at 125 knots in the Eastern Pacific?

Now we just need a CAT4 Vivi on the night before Christmas!

When watching the weather segment on WDIV Local 4 News in the US, the chief broadcaster meaning the main met for that station said this (not joking), "We are getting rain from this system in the Epac - Sandra which is making landfall on Mexico or is just about to make landfall." :yayaya:

Image

Uh-oh Part II :sick: .
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#150 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Nov 26, 2015 9:12 am

It has been one heck of an historic season for tropical cyclones in the Eastern Pacific. Sandra really puts the icing on the cake. Incredible season for the Eastern Pacific. Heck, with the way it has been this season, we may see another tropical cyclone in December in this basin before the book is finally closed on the 2015 season.
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Re: EPAC: SANDRA - Hurricane

#151 Postby cycloneye » Thu Nov 26, 2015 9:40 am

And down she goes.

HURRICANE SANDRA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP222015
800 AM MST THU NOV 26 2015

Sandra has begun to fill. The well-defined eye seen in conventional
satellite imagery overnight has since disappeared while the shape
and distribution of deep convection within the central dense
overcast has become asymmetric. The onset of weakening coincides
with an increase in southwesterly vertical shear as depicted in
UW-CIMSS shear analyses now that Sandra is well north of the
upper-level ridge axis. Dvorak intensity estimates are decreasing,
and the initial intensity is lowered to 115 kt in agreement with the
latest TAFB satellite classification.

Sandra has begun to recurve, with an initial motion estimate of
005/10. The cyclone is currently being steered by the southerly
flow on the western periphery of a mid-level ridge located over the
western Gulf of Mexico. Within 24 hours, Sandra should become
embedded in the fast-paced and deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead
of a trough over the western United States, which should result in
a north-northeastward motion that should continue until dissipation
over northwestern Mexico. The new track forecast is adjusted to the
right of the previous one and is on the eastern edge of the guidance
envelope.

As Sandra gains latitude during the next 24 hours, a sharp increase
in southwesterly shear should contribute to rapid weakening of the
cyclone. By the time Sandra reaches 20N latitude just after 24
hours, very strong shear associated with the western United States
trough should result in an abrupt decoupling of the low- to mid-
level circulations and a destruction of the cyclone's warm core by
48 hours. The remnant circulation, likely devoid of convection, is
expected to reach the coast of northwestern Mexico just beyond 48
hours and quickly dissipate over the high terrain of the Sierra
Madre Occidental after moving inland. The new intensity forecast
shows an even quicker rate of weakening than the previous one and is
lower the the multi-model consensus and the remainder of the
intensity guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/1500Z 15.7N 110.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 17.3N 110.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 19.3N 109.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 28/0000Z 21.2N 108.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 28/1200Z 23.4N 107.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 29/1200Z 28.1N 104.9W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain
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Re:

#152 Postby WeatherGuesser » Thu Nov 26, 2015 9:40 am

northjaxpro wrote:It has been one heck of an historic season for tropical cyclones in the Eastern Pacific.



Where are we anyways. I know a number of records have been tied or set, but I've lost track. Can somebody do a recap on the EPAC thread?

What records were set, tied and others we're close to setting?
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#153 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Nov 26, 2015 9:47 am

The weakening from here on in should be dramatic. It should decapitate soon.
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Re: Re:

#154 Postby Ntxw » Thu Nov 26, 2015 9:58 am

WeatherGuesser wrote:
northjaxpro wrote:It has been one heck of an historic season for tropical cyclones in the Eastern Pacific.



Where are we anyways. I know a number of records have been tied or set, but I've lost track. Can somebody do a recap on the EPAC thread?

What records were set, tied and others we're close to setting?


Tied most hurricanes in a season at 16. Broke the most majors in a season (CPAC+EPAC) at 11. Latest major in the western hemisphere, latest cat 4...ACE (depending on what source) is around 281 units per ryan maue. Wikipedia is running some units less, official count will come from NOAA. Sandra will add about 5 or so more units before she's gone.


Looks like her peak was last night and it was impressive, again if only recon. You can't lead me to believe Odile was stronger than this when recon found 918mb and looked less impressive than she was last night.
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#155 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Nov 26, 2015 10:13 am

:uarrow: To add of course and last but certainly not the least, the strongest ever measured tropical cyclone in the Western Hemisphere, Patricia.
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Re:

#156 Postby EquusStorm » Thu Nov 26, 2015 1:25 pm

northjaxpro wrote::uarrow: To add of course and last but certainly not the least, the strongest ever measured tropical cyclone in the Western Hemisphere, Patricia.


And we must add on having three category four hurricanes active at the same time east of the Dateline in addition to Olaf being the southernmost Epac storm at multiple categories, PLUS being the first EP-CP-EP storm on record with its unusual recurve. Been a season for the books.

I think we also set a few records for earliest third hurricane or major hurricane? Also the most intense storm on record for at least two months (Oct and Nov) and with Sandra the latest EPAC storm on record at all levels above 80kts. I'm sure there are many more little records like that in this ridiculous season.
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...but still, though, a lot more interesting than the 2013 season.

Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.

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#157 Postby cycloneye » Thu Nov 26, 2015 2:15 pm

Avila and his always humor.

Lixion Avila ‏@canedancerlix · 6m6 minutes ago
Sandra u ruined my turkey and fun tonite but not my weeend
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Re: Re:

#158 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Nov 26, 2015 3:10 pm

EquusStorm wrote:
northjaxpro wrote::uarrow: To add of course and last but certainly not the least, the strongest ever measured tropical cyclone in the Western Hemisphere, Patricia.


And we must add on having three category four hurricanes active at the same time east of the Dateline in addition to Olaf being the southernmost Epac storm at multiple categories, PLUS being the first EP-CP-EP storm on record with its unusual recurve. Been a season for the books.

I think we also set a few records for earliest third hurricane or major hurricane? Also the most intense storm on record for at least two months (Oct and Nov) and with Sandra the latest EPAC storm on record at all levels above 80kts. I'm sure there are many more little records like that in this ridiculous season.


Maybe December will show some surprises as well?

Based on the ADT and other data, I estimate that Sandra peaked at 130 kt at 0600Z.
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#159 Postby cycloneye » Thu Nov 26, 2015 3:49 pm

HURRICANE SANDRA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP222015
200 PM MST THU NOV 26 2015

Sandra's satellite presentation features a large CDO and impressive
outflow in the northern semicircle. However, increasing shear has
begun to restrict outflow in the southwestern quadrant. The initial
intensity has been lowered to 105 kt based on a blend of the latest
Dvorak Final-T and CI numbers (T5.0/6.0) from TAFB and SAB. Further
quick weakening is expected as the shear is forecast to increase to
about 35 kt in 24 hours and 50 kt by 48 hours. This should result in
Sandra's low-level circulation becoming decoupled as the mid- and
upper-level warm core is sheared off to the northeast. The new NHC
intensity forecast closely follows the latest SHIPS model guidance,
and shows Sandra weakening to a remnant low by 48 hours. A 72-h
point is shown for continuity, but the low-level center of Sandra
should dissipate quickly after it moves inland over mainland Mexico
after 48 hours.

Sandra has moved a little to the left of the previous forecast
track, with an initial motion of 360/10. The track model guidance
has shifted to the left this cycle, and keeps Sandra on a northward
heading for the next 12 to 24 hours before turning north-
northeastward between a mid-level ridge over Mexico and a broad
deep-layer trough over western North America. The new NHC track has
been adjusted 30-45 n mi to the left given the initial motion and
the trend in the guidance, and now brings the center of a weakening
Sandra closer to the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
in 36-48 hours. The NHC forecast is close to the new latest multi-
model consensus.

Given the updated forecast, the government of Mexico has issued a
tropical storm watch for the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula from Todos Santos to Los Barriles.

Note that the remnant mid/upper-level moisture associated with
Sandra will contribute to a significant precipitation event
expected to occur over portions of the south-central United
States this weekend. For more information on this event, please see
products from the NOAA Weather Prediction Center and local NWS
Weather Forecast Offices.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/2100Z 16.8N 110.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 27/0600Z 18.1N 110.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 27/1800Z 19.8N 110.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 28/0600Z 21.8N 109.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 28/1800Z 24.2N 108.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 29/1800Z 27.0N 107.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan
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#160 Postby HurricaneRyan » Thu Nov 26, 2015 3:51 pm

This is like the EPAC equivalent of the 2005 season
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