EPAC: SANDRA - Post-Tropical

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Yellow Evan
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#161 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Nov 26, 2015 5:04 pm

HurricaneRyan wrote:This is like the EPAC equivalent of the 2005 season


Not even close. 2005 is by far and away the greatest ATL season, while we haven't even had more named storms than 1992.
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Re: Re:

#162 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Nov 26, 2015 6:06 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:
HurricaneRyan wrote:This is like the EPAC equivalent of the 2005 season


Not even close. 2005 is by far and away the greatest ATL season, while we haven't even had more named storms than 1992.


The CPAC has had a record-smashing season though.
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#163 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Nov 26, 2015 6:49 pm

Up to 284 ACE.

Sandra has contributed 10 units.
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#164 Postby WeatherGuesser » Thu Nov 26, 2015 8:24 pm

^ So far. Maybe a few more before it dies?
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Re: EPAC: SANDRA - Hurricane

#165 Postby tolakram » Thu Nov 26, 2015 8:39 pm

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Give Thanks for This

#166 Postby Cyclenall » Thu Nov 26, 2015 8:42 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:The weakening from here on in should be dramatic. It should decapitate soon.


cycloneye wrote:And down she goes.


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Sandra starts her comeback now! Crazy enough, it could even intensify beyond its first peak strength based on those SSMIS and F-16 scans if the cloud tops fully encase a clearing eye. The models were atrocious with Patricia's intensity, who knows? Its a Thanksgiving Day miracle everyone!! :)
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#167 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Nov 26, 2015 8:45 pm

WeatherGuesser wrote:^ So far. Maybe a few more before it dies?


Its new life may just do that.

Also, recon will find the correct wind speeds so that will help in getting the most ACE as possible.
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Re: EPAC: SANDRA - Hurricane

#168 Postby ozonepete » Thu Nov 26, 2015 9:07 pm

Remarkable comeback considering most thought it was done for earlier today.

CIMSS has 132 knots in its 0100 UTC analysis and that looks pretty reasonable.

WOW!
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Re: EPAC: SANDRA - Hurricane

#169 Postby ozonepete » Thu Nov 26, 2015 9:15 pm

Look at that perfect symmetry and beautiful small eye. Wow!

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#170 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Nov 26, 2015 9:28 pm

WOW surprise surprise!!! Cat 4 again probably.I'd say 115 or 120 kt.

Still, is a Hurricane Watch warranted for the southernmost Baja? I can't see it surviving this strong until Saturday...
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#171 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Nov 26, 2015 9:30 pm

This is incredibly astonishing.

Crazy that it may be stronger than before.
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#172 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Nov 26, 2015 9:32 pm

Code: Select all

                     UW - CIMSS                     
              ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE       
                  ADT-Version 8.2.1               
         Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm       

             ----- Current Analysis -----
     Date :  27 NOV 2015    Time :   011500 UTC
      Lat :   17:33:56 N     Lon :  109:50:31 W

     
                CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                6.7 / 930.6mb/132.2kt

     
             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T#
                6.7     6.9     7.0

 Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

 Center Temp : -50.4C    Cloud Region Temp : -77.6C

 Scene Type : EYE 


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#173 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Nov 26, 2015 9:39 pm

Something tells me Sandra is really stuffed with turkey and found enough to boost her. That Dvorak image is T6.5 in my books...maybe 125 kt?
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#174 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Nov 26, 2015 9:40 pm

TXPZ24 KNES 270024
TCSENP

A. 22E (SANDRA)

B. 27/0000Z

C. 17.2N

D. 109.7W

E. THREE/GOES-W

F. T5.0/5.5/W1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/SSMI

H. REMARKS...THOUGH SYSTEM HAS EYE... USED EMBEDDED CENTER IN BLACK FOR
DT=5.0 AS MI DATA SHOW LOWER LEVEL CENTER LAGGING BEHIND UPPER LEVEL EYE
IN IR AND VIS IMAGERY TO N-NNE. MET AND PAT ALSO 5.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

26/2131Z 16.9N 110.2W SSMI


...SWANSON
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#175 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Nov 26, 2015 9:45 pm

Waiting on the NHC to see what they think.
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#176 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Nov 26, 2015 9:54 pm

NHC keeps it at 105 kt. Probably believes this is temporary and lends itself to the T5.0/5.5 there.
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Re:

#177 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Nov 26, 2015 9:58 pm

HurricaneRyan wrote:This is like the EPAC equivalent of the 2005 season


Going back on that point, even 2005 didn't have a November major in the Atlantic, let alone this late in the month. There has never been a major hurricane after Thanksgiving in the Atlantic, at least in the satellite era.
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Re:

#178 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Nov 26, 2015 9:59 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:NHC keeps it at 105 kt. Probably believes this is temporary and lends itself to the T5.0/5.5 there.


Yeah Beven likes to be on the safe side. Would've helped the ACE some if they bumped it up. Let's see if Sandra can still keep it up.
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#179 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Nov 26, 2015 9:59 pm

ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

HURRICANE SANDRA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP222015
800 PM MST THU NOV 26 2015

Despite the presence of at least 25 kt of southwesterly vertical
wind shear, the satellite appearance of Sandra unexpectedly improved
near 0000 UTC when the eye became better defined. Whatever
re-intensification this represents has ended, however, as the eye
has again begun to lose definition. The initial intensity will be
held at 105 kt for this advisory, and the hurricane could have been
a little stronger than that three hours ago based on satellite
intensity estimates.

After nudging to the left earlier, Sandra has turned a little to
the right with an initial motion of 010/11. The cyclone is moving
into an area of low-level southerly flow west of a ridge over
southern Mexico and an area of strong mid- to upper-level
southwesterly flow between the ridge and a large trough over the
western United States. The track guidance indicates that a
general north-northeastward motion should continue until the center
reaches mainland Mexico in about 48 hours, although there is some
spread between the poorly initialized ECMWF on the left side of the
guidance envelope and the better initialized GFS on the right side.
The new forecast track is nudged to the east based mainly on the
current position and motion, and it lies near the center of the
guidance envelope. It should be noted that some eastward component
of motion is likely to continue as long as Sandra retains a deep
vertical structure, which would help keep the cyclone east of the
Baja California peninsula.

Steadily increasing shear should cause Sandra to rapidly weaken
until the center reaches mainland Mexico. The new intensity
forecast, which is in good agreement with all of the intensity
guidance is unchanged from the previous forecast. It continues
to call for Sandra to weaken to a tropical storm before the closest
approach to Baja California and to a remnant low before reaching
mainland Mexico.

Given the eastward shift in the forecast track, the expected
weakening, and the likely decay of the wind field to the west of
the center, a tropical storm warning will not be issued for
southern Baja California at this time. However, a warning could
still be required later tonight or on Friday.

In addition to heavy rains over portions of Mexico, the remnant
mid-/upper-level moisture associated with Sandra will contribute to
a significant precipitation event expected to occur over portions of
the south-central United States this weekend. For more information
on this event, please see products from the NOAA Weather Prediction
Center and local NWS Weather Forecast Offices.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0300Z 18.0N 109.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 19.3N 109.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 28/0000Z 21.1N 109.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 28/1200Z 23.2N 108.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 29/0000Z 25.0N 108.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
72H 30/0000Z 28.0N 107.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven
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#180 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Nov 26, 2015 10:04 pm

It looks enchanced quite a bit by upper-level outflow, but the shear may be displacing the LLC and eye a bit and limiting surface mixing. With the two aligned, this def warranted 120-125 knots until just now though.
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