EPAC: SANDRA - Post-Tropical

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Kingarabian
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#201 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Nov 27, 2015 3:42 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:Only storms that were underestimated were Niala and Kevin. Maybe Oho. The rest looked about right to me.

Tbh, 1992 was in the era where CI values were hugged more often and ADT was too bullish for weakening system, so if that season were to take place today, the ACE may be slightly lower (even though a few off the storms were def a bit underestimated at peak).


Patricia could and should also be bumped higher since recon left while it was intensifying.

Niala was an obvious hurricane for at least 7 hours. Valuable ACE units down the drain with this one.
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Re: EPAC: SANDRA - Hurricane

#202 Postby THNDRSTM » Fri Nov 27, 2015 3:49 pm

I wouldn't be surprised to see this storm go near Baja as a weak system.
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Re: EPAC: SANDRA - Hurricane

#203 Postby Exalt » Fri Nov 27, 2015 4:35 pm

It's sad really, considering Sandra did almost (or likely) reintensify into a category 5 if you look at Dvorak numbers with a peak of 6.8/155 mph.
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#204 Postby cycloneye » Fri Nov 27, 2015 6:44 pm

SUMMARY OF 500 PM MST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.8N 108.6W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM WSW OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM SW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...115 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES
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Re: EPAC: SANDRA - Tropical Storm

#205 Postby wxman57 » Fri Nov 27, 2015 8:33 pm

Looks like Sandra was ripped apart prior to landfall. You can see the surface low separating from the convection and moving NNW away from the coast now.
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#206 Postby NotoSans » Fri Nov 27, 2015 8:44 pm

ACE is at 287.0675 according to my record (1992 was 290.6275).
CPHC definitely underestimated some of the storms, but it might be difficult to get an increase of 3 on ACE in the post-analysis.
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Re: EPAC: SANDRA - Tropical Storm

#207 Postby Ntxw » Fri Nov 27, 2015 8:46 pm

This was from Phil Klotzbach earlier this morning

Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach 10h10 hours ago
#Sandra has brought NE Pacific (to 180W) ACE to 289, only 2 ACE less than the all-time NE Pac record (291 in 1992).
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Re: EPAC: SANDRA - Tropical Storm

#208 Postby cycloneye » Fri Nov 27, 2015 9:40 pm

TROPICAL STORM SANDRA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP222015
800 PM MST FRI NOV 27 2015

Sandra has sheared apart since the last advisory, with the low
level center now exposed well to the west of the remaining
convection by 40 kt of shear. The initial intensity is reduced to
55 kt based on a blend of satellite intensity estimates from TAFB
and SAB. The shear should increase during the next 24-36 hours,
which should keep Sandra on a rapid weakening trend. The cyclone
is likely to weaken to a tropical depression, if not a remnant low,
before the center moves into northwestern Mexico in 24 hours or so.
This is reflected in the new intensity forecast, which is an update
of the previous forecast.

The low-level center has been moving west of due north for the past
several hours, with a longer-term initial motion of 005/9. A
low-level ridge over Mexico should steer Sandra or its remnants
generally northward for 24 to 36 hours into northwestern Mexico.
The track guidance has again shifted to the west, and the new
forecast track lies to the west of the previous track based on this
and the initial location and motion. However, the new forecast
lies to the east of the model consensus.

Tropical storm warning remain in effect for the Las Islas Marias and
portions of the coast of mainland Mexico due to the possibility that
the tropical storm force winds could reach the coast before Sandra
weakens to a depression.

Regardless of how Sandra evolves during the next couple of days,
heavy rains are expected over a large part of west central Mexico.
In addition, the remnant mid- and upper-level moisture associated
with Sandra will contribute to a significant precipitation event
that has begun over portions of the south-central United States.
For more information, please see products from the NOAA Weather
Prediction Center and local NWS Weather Forecast Offices.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0300Z 21.2N 108.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 28/1200Z 22.6N 108.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 29/0000Z 24.3N 108.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 29/1200Z 25.9N 107.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
48H 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: EPAC: SANDRA - Tropical Storm

#209 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 28, 2015 5:18 am

TROPICAL STORM SANDRA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP222015
200 AM MST SAT NOV 28 2015

Sandra was decapitated by very strong upper-level winds, and now
consists of a tight swirl of low clouds devoid of deep convection. A
perfect ASCAT pass over the cyclone at 0454 UTC indicates that the
winds have decreased to 35 kt, and this is the value assigned
to the initial intensity.

Since the shear is anticipated to increase further, additional
weakening is forecast. Sandra is expected to become a remnant
low late Saturday or early Sunday before it moves near the
coast of Mexico.

The shallow swirl has been moving little during the past several
hours. However, it should begin to move toward the north and
north-northeast embedded within the low- to mid-level flow. The NHC
forecast is similar to the previous one and very close to the
consensus of the GFS and the ECMWF global models.

Given that Sandra is forecast to weaken, the Government of Mexico
has discontinued the tropical storm warnings. However, heavy rains
are still expected over a large part of west-central Mexico.
Furthermore, the remnant mid- and upper-level moisture associated
with Sandra will contribute to a significant precipitation event
over portions of the south-central United States. For more
information, please see products from the NOAA Weather
Prediction Center and local NWS Weather Forecast Offices.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0900Z 21.4N 109.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 22.6N 109.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 29/0600Z 24.5N 108.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 29/1800Z 26.5N 108.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
48H 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila
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#210 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 28, 2015 9:36 am

And is gone.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDRA DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP222015
800 AM MST SAT NOV 28 2015

Sandra has been devoid of organized deep convection since about
0000 UTC, a little after the time that the low- and mid-level
circulations separated from one another. With west-southwesterly
vertical wind shear of nearly 50 kt and forecast to increase
further, regeneration is unlikely. Sandra is therefore being
declared a post-tropical remnant low, and this is the last advisory
on this system. Some spin-down of the vortex is assumed since the
overnight ASCAT pass that showed tropical-storm-force winds, and the
initial intensity estimate is lowered to 30 kt. Global models show
the remnant low of Sandra weakening further and dissipating in about
24 hours near the coast of Sinaloa.

The initial motion of the post-tropical cyclone is toward the north
or 010/06. The remnant low should turn north-northeastward around a
low-level ridge located near the south-central coast of Mexico, and
this motion should continue until dissipation. The new track
forecast is adjusted slightly to the right of the previous one
toward the multi-model consensus.

Moisture associated with the remnants of Sandra's mid- and
upper-level circulations could still produce heavy rains over
portions of central Mexico during the next day or so, potentially
causing localized flash flooding and mud slides. The remnant
moisture could also contribute to the significant heavy rain event
already occurring over the south-central United States. For more
information, please see products from the NOAA Weather Prediction
Center and local NWS Weather Forecast Offices.

For additional information on the remnant low, please see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFEP1, WMO header FZPN01 KWBC, and on the web at
http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEP1.shtml.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1500Z 22.0N 108.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 29/0000Z 23.3N 108.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 29/1200Z 24.3N 107.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain
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Re: EPAC: SANDRA - Post-Tropical

#211 Postby MGC » Sat Nov 28, 2015 5:58 pm

Convection refireing on the east side of the circulation...Is Sandra really dead?....MGC
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Re: EPAC: SANDRA - Post-Tropical

#212 Postby tolakram » Sat Nov 28, 2015 8:04 pm

LLC looks to have dissipated soon after the convection started.
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