WPAC: MELOR - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: MELOR - Typhoon

#181 Postby euro6208 » Wed Dec 16, 2015 4:37 am

The Philippines is probrably the only country in the world, unfortunately living in the most active basin, to experience multiple landfalls and from strengthening ones due to it's unique archipelago...

Image

http://www.weather.com/storms/typhoon/news/typhoon-melor-nona-philippines

Typhoon Melor (Nona) Weakening After Five Landfalls in Philippines; Flooding Rains Continue (FORECAST)

:uarrow: :uarrow:

Weather.com

I don't know but according to that map, I counted more than 5 landfalls...
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Re: WPAC: MELOR - Typhoon

#182 Postby euro6208 » Wed Dec 16, 2015 5:14 am

Melor's trek over the Philippines isn't done...

While all models weaken this some more but still bring a strong disturbance into the NIO, GFS is persistent...

00Z is even stronger...It brings a strong cyclone to the Andaman islands with a possible cyclone for Malaysia.

Possible Cat 5 for the Andaman Islands recurving to south Asia...

Image
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Re: WPAC: MELOR - Tropical Storm

#183 Postby wxman57 » Wed Dec 16, 2015 8:10 am

Looks like Melor may have dissipated north of Palawan. I don't see much of any LLC, and the mid-level center is racing northward across northern Luzon.
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#184 Postby supercane » Wed Dec 16, 2015 9:44 am

WTPQ20 RJTD 161200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1527 MELOR (1527) DOWNGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 161200UTC 14.3N 120.0E POOR
MOVE SE 06KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 120NM
FORECAST
24HF 171200UTC 10.9N 117.5E 85NM 70%
MOVE SW 10KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 181200UTC 07.7N 114.6E 160NM 70%
MOVE SW 11KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 191200UTC 04.7N 110.7E 250NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

WTPN51 PGTW 161500
WARNING ATCG MIL 28W NWP 151216124820
2015121612 28W MELOR 021 01 350 07 SATL 060
T000 160N 1194E 050 R034 100 NE QD 070 SE QD 075 SW QD 095 NW QD
T012 151N 1190E 040 R034 095 NE QD 075 SE QD 085 SW QD 100 NW QD
T024 131N 1176E 035
T036 109N 1156E 025
T048 089N 1133E 020
AMP
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 28W (MELOR) WARNING NR 021
<rest omitted>

WDPN31 PGTW 161500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 28W (MELOR)
/WARNING NR 21//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 28W (MELOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 125 NM NORTHWEST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE POSITIONING OF THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) FOR TS 28W AS STRONG (30 TO 40 KNOTS)
OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) CONTINUES TO DECOUPLE THE LOW AND UPPER
LEVEL FEATURES. BASED ON THE POSITIONING FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD
ALONG WITH ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY, THE LLCC HAS TRACKED
NORTHWARD, AND APPEARS TO BE SLOWING SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASING EQUALLY AS RAPIDLY, WITH DVORAK
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 45 TO 55 KNOTS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 50
KNOTS IS A BLEND OF THESE AVAILABLE ESTIMATES. TS 28W IS STARTING TO
SLOW AS IT APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE NORTHEASTERLY COLD
SURGE BOUNDARY, AND IS BEGINNING TO TRANSITION TO A NEW STEERING
REGIME.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. TS MELOR WILL START TO SLOW AS THE LLCC BECOMES DECOUPLED FROM
THE CONVECTION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STRONG VWS. THE LLCC WILL
SUBSEQUENTLY START TRACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE NORTHEASTERLY COLD SURGE WITHIN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. HIGH VWS
VALUES AND ENTRAINMENT OF COOLER, DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY
WEAKEN TS 28W AS IT BECOMES FULLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE COLD SURGE.
THE COMPLETE DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED BY TAU 48.
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT REGARDING THE ANTICIPATED
TRACK, BUT NONE HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR THE RECENT TURN TO THE NORTH IN
THE PAST 12 HOURS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING FOR THE SOUTH-
WESTWARD TURN AND THE POOR CONFIDENCE IN POSITIONING FOR THE LLCC,
THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS, WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN
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#185 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Dec 16, 2015 10:45 am

ASCAT is not very convincing that a low level center still exists, unless maybe it's near the mouth of Manilla bay over Luzon.

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#186 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Dec 16, 2015 11:18 am

While it may incorporate the remnants of Melor and 97W, it looks to me that the modeled Gulf of Thailand/Bay of Bengal system is a separate entity.
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Re: WPAC: MELOR - Tropical Storm

#187 Postby wxman57 » Wed Dec 16, 2015 11:32 am

Yeah, no circulation on ASCAT and certainly not a 50kt TS. It's a remnant low. NE monsoon winds of 25-35kts dominate the S. China Sea.
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#188 Postby Alyono » Wed Dec 16, 2015 12:00 pm

I'm killing this off in a few minutes. My patience has ran out with this one
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#189 Postby supercane » Wed Dec 16, 2015 5:58 pm

21Z JMA and JTWC advisories:
WTPQ20 RJTD 162100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1527 MELOR (1527)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 162100UTC 13.5N 119.7E POOR
MOVE S SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 90NM
FORECAST
24HF 172100UTC 09.9N 116.8E 85NM 70%
MOVE SW 11KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 181800UTC 06.2N 112.6E 160NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

WTPN51 PGTW 162100
WARNING ATCG MIL 28W NWP 151216195828
2015121618 28W MELOR 022A 02 225 03 SATL 060
T000 140N 1193E 040 R034 100 NE QD 070 SE QD 075 SW QD 095 NW QD
T012 121N 1183E 030
T024 098N 1164E 020
AMP
012HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
024HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 28W (MELOR) WARNING NR 022A RELOCATED
<rest omitted>

WDPN31 PGTW 162100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 28W (MELOR) WARNING NR
22//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 28W (MELOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 105 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION SHEARING TO THE NORTHEAST
DUE TO PERSISTENT 45 TO 50 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS). BASED ON RECENT MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 161348Z
ASCAT PASS, THE STRONG NORTHEASTERLY COLD SURGE EVENT HAD SET IN
THROUGHOUT THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM A 160348Z AMSR-2 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH SHOWED AN IN-TACT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE RAPID WEAKENING OF THE
SYSTEM DUE TO THE HIGH VWS AND IS SUPPORTED BY DECREASING DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING
EQUATORWARD WITH THE NORTHEASTERLY SURGE EVENT.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE STORM WAS RELOCATED BASED ON EVIDENCE IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY
THAT THE SYSTEM DECREASED FORWARD SPEED AND TURNED SOUTH WITH THE
NORTHEASTERLY SURGE EVENT AFTER PASSING THROUGH THE PHILIPPINES.
HOWEVER, THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY
FROM THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. TS MELOR WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE DUE TO THE HIGH VWS AND
THE COLD STABLE AIR PROVIDED BY THE SURGE EVENT. THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD AND FULLY DISSIPATE BY THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD OR POSSIBLY SOONER. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD; HOWEVER, THE POOR
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION LEADS TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: MELOR - Tropical Depression

#190 Postby euro6208 » Thu Dec 17, 2015 4:48 am

Image

WTPN31 PGTW 170300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28W (MELOR) WARNING NR 023
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 28W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170000Z --- NEAR 13.3N 118.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 13.3N 118.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 11.2N 117.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 9.1N 115.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
170300Z POSITION NEAR 12.8N 118.5E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 28W (MELOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 145 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY DEPICTS
AN OPEN TROUGH WITH NO DISCERNABLE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE
CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM IS MOVING RAPIDLY TO
THE NORTHEAST EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. DUE TO THE STRONG
NORTHEASTERLY SURGE EVENT AND HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA, THE SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO REGENERATE. THIS IS THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z
IS 8 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 29W (TWENTYNINE) WARNINGS
(WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: MELOR - Tropical Depression

#191 Postby euro6208 » Thu Dec 17, 2015 5:46 am

No way Melor only peaked at 125 knots with this satellite presentation of a pinhole east of the Philippines and before making landfall over Mindoro...

Image

Image
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#192 Postby supercane » Thu Dec 17, 2015 9:45 am

Last advisory on Melor written from both JTWC (see above) and by JMA at 00Z:
WTPQ20 RJTD 170000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD DOWNGRADED FROM TS 1527 MELOR (1527)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 170000UTC 13N 120E
MOVE S SLOWLY
PRES 1004HPA =

Nothing on the 12Z maps.

Looking at news media, 7 deaths around the Philippines, flooding, crop damage, and power outages the result of Melor.
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