WPAC: MELOR - Post-Tropical

[supercane]

ABPW10 PGTW 102200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/102200Z-110600ZDEC2015//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.4N
144.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.2N 140.8E, APPROXIMATELY 175 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF YAP. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
DEEP CONVECTION FLARING ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN ELONGATED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EVIDENT IN A 101229Z ASCAT PASS
AND A 101546Z RSCAT PASS. THIS DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED EQUATORWARD OF
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS, IN AREA OF STRONG WESTWARD UPPER-LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE AND MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE ASCAT AND
RSCAT DATA INDICATE THAT STRONGER WINDS ARE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN
AND NORTHERN PERIPHERIES OF THE DEVELOPING LLCC, WITH MUCH LIGHTER
10-15 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES.
HOWEVER, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR CONTINUED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, AND NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE LLCC
WILL LIKELY CONSOLIDATE INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB.
BASED ON PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OBSERVED ALONG THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC AND GENERALLY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO
MEDIUM.//
NNNN

[1900hurricane]

ASCAT certainly shows the circulation closing up. We're very close to having a classifiable system.

[1900hurricane]

Honestly, 96W could possibly/probably be classified now.

[dexterlabio]

I think it just needs a little bit of convection near its center.

[supercane]

WTPQ20 RJTD 110000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 110000UTC 08.0N 139.6E POOR
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 120000UTC 10.4N 135.3E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

WTPQ30 RJTD 110000

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 1 FOR TD LOCATED AT 08.0N 139.6E
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN.
3.MOTION FORECAST
POSITION ACCURACY AT 110000 UTC IS POOR.
TD WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TD WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
TD WILL BE GRADED UP TO TS WITHIN 24 HOURS.
TD WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA.
FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.=

[supercane]

TXPQ21 KNES 110254
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (96W)
B. 11/0230Z
C. 8.9N
D. 139.0E
E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8
F. T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/SSMIS
H. REMARKS...SYSTEM IS ORGANIZING RAPIDLY. 4/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A
DT OF 2.5. MET IS 1.0 AND PT IS 1.5. FT IS BASED ON TRADITIONAL DVORAK
CONSTRAINTS LIMITING CHANGES IN T-NUMBER TO 0.5 OVER 6 HRS.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
10/2203Z 8.6N 140.4E SSMIS

...TURK

[Alyono]

given the outflow, I do not think we can rule out an intense typhoon

As for what it is now, there is no doubt whatsoever, that this is a depression

[cycloneye]

JMA upgrades to TS.

TS 1527 (Melor)
Issued at 09:50 UTC, 11 December 2015


<Analysis at 09 UTC, 11 December>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N9°30' (9.5°)
E137°10' (137.2°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30 km/h (17 kt)
Central pressure 1002 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 110 km (60 NM)

<Forecast for 21 UTC, 11 December>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N11°05' (11.1°)
E134°55' (134.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 998 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 90 km (50 NM)

<Forecast for 09 UTC, 12 December>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N12°25' (12.4°)
E132°50' (132.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 994 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 140 km (75 NM)

<Forecast for 06 UTC, 13 December>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N13°50' (13.8°)
E129°55' (129.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)

<Forecast for 06 UTC, 14 December>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N13°55' (13.9°)
E127°05' (127.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15 km/h (7 kt)
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
Radius of probability circle 300 km (160 NM)

[euro6208]

WTPN21 PGTW 110530
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
185 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.1N 140.0E TO 10.9N 133.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 17 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
110300Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 8.4N
138.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.2N
140.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.4N 138.9E, APPROXIMATELY 120 NM
SOUTHEAST OF YAP. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OBSCURED BY
THE MID-LEVEL DEEP CONVECTION FLARING ALONG THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. A RECENT 102203Z SSMIS PASS INDICATED THE
LLCC WAS BECOMING MORE SYMMETRIC WITHIN ALL QUADRANTS. OBSERVATIONS
FROM YAP AND AN 110010Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS SUPPORT THE CURRENT
INTENSITY OF 17 TO 22 KNOTS WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1005 MB. THIS
DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED EQUATORWARD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS, IN
AN AREA OF STRONG WESTWARD UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND MODERATE
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE
FOR CONTINUED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, AND NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE
THAT THE LLCC WILL LIKELY CONSOLIDATE INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
17 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1005 MB. BASED ON PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OBSERVED ALONG THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC AND GENERALLY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
120530Z.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

TPPN10 PGTW 110954

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 96W (MELOR)

B. 11/0900Z

C. 9.18N

D. 137.40E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T2.0/2.0 STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .35 ON LOG10
SPIRAL, YIELDING A DT OF 2.0. MET AND PT ARE UNAVAILABLE. DBO
DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


CHAPPOTIN

TXPQ21 KNES 110857
TCSWNP

A. MELOR (96W)

B. 11/0830Z

C. 9.1N

D. 137.3E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/SSMI

H. REMARKS...CURVED BANDING WRAPS .3 FOR A DT OF 2.0. MET=1.0 AND
PT=1.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

11/0536Z 9.0N 138.1E SSMI


...VELASCO

[euro6208]

000
WWPQ80 PGUM 110746 AAA
SPSPQ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
545 PM CHST FRI DEC 11 2015

PMZ161-171-120000-
KOROR PALAU-YAP-
545 PM CHST FRI DEC 11 2015

...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE DEVELOPING OVER FAR WESTERN YAP STATE...

AT 440 PM (0640 UTC)...SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THE HIMAWARI SATELLITE
AND OBSERVATIONS FROM YAP ISLAND INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE HAS PASSED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF YAP AND IS NOW
CENTERED NEAR 9.1N 137.7E. THIS IS ABOUT 40 MILES SOUTHWEST OF YAP
ISLAND AND 55 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF NGULU IN YAP STATE...255
MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF KOROR AND 215 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF
KAYANGEL IN THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU. THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING SIGNS OF
DEVELOPING FURTHER AND HAS INCREASED IN FORWARD SPEED. IT IS NOW THE
SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT ISSUED BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WARNING CENTER. THE JAPANESE METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY HAS NAMED
THIS SYSTEM TROPICAL STORM MELOR...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME WE BELIEVE
THAT IF ANY TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH WINDS EXIST...THEY ARE NOT
AFFECTING ANY OF THE ISLANDS IN YAP STATE. THE LATEST TRACK WILL
TAKE IT WELL NORTH OF NGULU THIS EVENING. THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO
BE WARNED ON BY JTWC AS EITHER A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL
STORM LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER BY THEN...IT WILL BE WELL WEST OF YAP
AND NGULU...AND SHOULD PASS NORTH OF THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU ON
SATURDAY. THEREFORE NO DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR ANY LOCATION.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS HEAVY SHOWERS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND
GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR YAP AND NGULU THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...KOROR AND KAYANGEL THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. 1 TO 2 INCHES
OF RAIN REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR YAP AND NGULU BY SATURDAY...2 TO 4
INCHES FOR KOROR AND KAYANGEL BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE MUDSLIDE
POTENTIAL IN STEEP VALLEYS AND THE CHANCES FOR FLOODING IN LOW-LYING
AREAS. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH IN
SHOWERS ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED. THESE WINDS WILL CREATE ROUGH SEA
CONDITIONS AND INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL BY BOAT SHOULD BE POSTPONED FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

RESIDENTS OF WESTERN YAP STATE AND THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION AND PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE
LATEST STATEMENTS AND FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE GUAM...YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES AND EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT AGENCIES.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL UPDATE THIS SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT WHEN NECESSARY. THE LATEST YAP AND KOROR COASTAL WATERS
FORECAST CAN BE FOUND UNDER WMO HEADER FZPQ52 PGUM.

$$

CHAN/EDSON

[dexterlabio]

Someone needs to wake up. I've seen JTWC upping a disturbance to a tropical depression when Dvorak estimates reach 1.5. This, to me, looks like a tropical storm.

[euro6208]

EURO still brings a possible typhoon to the P.I. Takes it very close to Manila before it starts to veer to the southwest with the interaction.

GFS too brings a possible typhoon making landfall near Catanduanes Island.

[cycloneye]

TS 1527 (Melor)
Issued at 12:50 UTC, 11 December 2015


<Analysis at 12 UTC, 11 December>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N9°50' (9.8°)
E136°35' (136.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30 km/h (17 kt)
Central pressure 1002 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 110 km (60 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 12 December>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N12°30' (12.5°)
E132°25' (132.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 130 km (70 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 13 December>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N13°25' (13.4°)
E129°00' (129.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 14 December>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N13°25' (13.4°)
E126°20' (126.3°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15 km/h (7 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (55 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40 m/s (80 kt)
Radius of probability circle 300 km (160 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 350 km (190 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 15 December>
Center position of probability circle N13°25' (13.4°)
E123°50' (123.8°)
Direction and speed of movement W 10 km/h (6 kt)
Radius of probability circle 370 km (200 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 16 December>
Center position of probability circle N13°05' (13.1°)
E121°40' (121.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slow
Radius of probability circle 480 km (260 NM)

[cycloneye]

JTWC 15:00 UTC warning at 30kts.Peak intensity is 55kts.

[1900hurricane]

I do think JMA has it correct calling Melor a tropical storm. The last several scatterometer passes have sucked, but the RSCAT pass from about 24 hours ago did show several barbs of 35 kt and up (many were flagged, but some were not). Considering this, I don't see any reason why the winds would have decreased between now and then. Hopefully, we'll find out for sure with the next RSCAT pass coming up.

[1900hurricane]

As Alyono mentioned earlier, Melor's outflow pattern is very good, and the system lies within a large moist envelope. Depending on how the core evolves, this certainly has potential to overshoot the current intensity forecasts.

[cycloneye]

Well.JTWC up bigtime in intensity,now up to 95kts.

[euro6208]

Wow...

Near category 3 making landfall over the Philippines?

When was the last time that happen?

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 112100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 28W (MELOR) WARNING NR
02//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 28W (MELOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF KOROR, PALAU HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH WELL-DEFINED SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING
INTO THE CENTER. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE TIGHTLY
WRAPPED BANDING IN THE EIR LOOP WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY
HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 45 KNOTS BASED ON THE RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AND IS SUPPORTED BY A DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE
OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM PGTW. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE VERY
FAVORABLE WITH LOW (5-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), RADIAL
OUTFLOW, AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 28 CELSIUS. TS 28W IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE FORECASTED INTENSITY HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED,
REACHING A PEAK OF 95 KNOTS, BASED ON ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
SUPPORTING RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THERE
HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY.
B. TS MELOR WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS PRIOR TO LEVELING OUT ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK UNDER A
BUILDING STR. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE
AND SUPPORT RI OVER THE FIRST 36 HOURS. BEYOND TAU 36, VWS WILL
SLOWLY BEGIN TO INCREASE AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER CHINA PRODUCES A
STRONG COLD SURGE; ADVECTING DRY STABLE AIR INTO THE PHILIPPINE SEA.
IN ADDITION, TS 28W WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASED FRICTION NEAR TAU 72 AS
IT APPROACHES CENTRAL PHILIPPINES.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, THE CYCLONE WILL DECREASE SPEED WHILE TRACKING
OVER THE PHILIPPINES DUE TO A COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN
TWO SUB-TROPICAL RIDGES. AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS DUE TO THE COLD
SURGE, TS MELOR WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA. LIMITED MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU
72 WITH A LANDFALL OVER CENTRAL PHILIPPINES. AFTERWARDS, THERE IS A
SPLIT IN MODEL GUIDANCE WITH NVGM AND COTC RECURVING THE SYSTEM
POLEWARD INTO THE NORTHEASTERLY COLD SURGE. THIS SOLUTION IS NOT
FEASIBLE AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD SURGE WHICH
WOULD PUSH THE SYSTEM EQUATORWARD. THE REMAINING GUIDANCE KEEPS THE
SYSTEM ON A WESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK WHICH SUPPORTS THE
CURRENT JTWC TRACK FORECAST. DUE TO THE LIMITED MODEL GUIDANCE AND
MODEL TRACKERS NOT REFLECTING THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION SCENARIO,
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN