WPAC: MELOR - Post-Tropical

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dexterlabio
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#81 Postby dexterlabio » Sat Dec 12, 2015 9:35 pm

Alyono wrote:Fairly easy forecast as per the ensembles. No bifurcation like we saw last year with hagupit



Some models like the NAVGEM has Melor tracking north as it reaches Mindoro area while others shoots the center to the southwest or even straight south. But yes it's fairly clear to see a Samar hit at the moment..
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#82 Postby supercane » Sat Dec 12, 2015 9:42 pm

03 JTWC advisory at 75kt with peak intensity of 100kt in 24hr:
WTPN51 PGTW 130300
WARNING ATCG MIL 28W NWP 151213021253
2015121300 28W MELOR 007 01 290 11 SATL 030
T000 119N 1302E 075 R064 015 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 065 SE QD 065 SW QD 100 NW QD
T012 122N 1280E 095 R064 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 115 NW QD
T024 126N 1259E 100 R064 030 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 050 SE QD 055 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 095 SE QD 095 SW QD 120 NW QD
T036 129N 1239E 085
T048 132N 1223E 075 R064 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 095 SE QD 100 SW QD 115 NW QD
T072 138N 1208E 055 R050 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 080 NW QD
T096 139N 1200E 035
T120 117N 1180E 020
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TYPHOON 28W (MELOR) WARNING NR 007
1. TYPHOON 28W (MELOR) WARNING NR 007
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 28W
<rest omitted>

WDPN31 PGTW 130300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 28W (MELOR) WARNING NR
07//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 28W (MELOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 561 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS TIGHTLY CURVED SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
5 NM DIAMETER EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THIS EYE IN THE
MSI WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 75
KNOTS BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 77 KNOTS. TY
28W IS TRACKING JUST SOUTH OF A DEEP LAYER SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
AXIS IN VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, WITH LOW (10-15
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(ABOVE 28 CELSIUS), AND ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY A STRONG
ALEUTIAN LOW.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE, HOWEVER THE PEAK FORECAST INTENSITY
HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARDS.
B. TY MELOR WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
STR. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AND THE CURRENT
INTENSIFICATION TREND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO A PEAK OF 100
KNOTS OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS TOWARDS
SOUTHERN LUZON. SHIPS GUIDANCE CALLS FOR A HIGH PROBABILITY OF
RAPID INTENSIFICATION. AFTER TAU 24, LAND INTERACTION WILL RESULT IN
A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. DYNAMICAL
MODEL TRACK SOLUTIONS HAVE LOW SPREAD THROUGH TAU 72, WITH GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE DEPICTION OF THE STEERING MECHANISM.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, A WEAKNESS IN THE STR IS EXPECTED TO FORM,
INITIALLY DEFLECTING TY 28W TO A MORE NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION WHERE
IT WILL ENCOUNTER A STRONG NORTHERLY COLD SURGE FROM CHINA. THE DRY
AIR AND INCREASED VWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURGE WILL LEAD TO A RAPID
EROSION OF THE CYCLONE, CAUSING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER TO
DEFLECT SOUTHWESTWARD, FOLLOWING THE SURGE FLOW. THE POOR CONDITIONS
IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL LEAD TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 120. DURING
THIS PERIOD, MODEL SOLUTIONS BECOME INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT, BOTH IN
SPEED AND DIRECTION, DEPENDING ON HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THE
TRANSITION FROM MID-LEVEL MEAN STEERING FLOW TO LOW-LEVEL STEERING.
GIVEN THIS DIVERGENCE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK TO TAU 72, AND LOW CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER.//
NNNN
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#83 Postby supercane » Sat Dec 12, 2015 11:05 pm

03Z JMA continues intensification, up to 75kt from 65kt at 00Z.
WTPQ20 RJTD 130300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1527 MELOR (1527)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 130300UTC 12.2N 129.6E GOOD
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 140300UTC 12.7N 125.6E 70NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
45HF 150000UTC 12.7N 122.0E 110NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
69HF 160000UTC 13.0N 119.8E 160NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =

03Z Dvorak classifications are 4.5 (77kt) from JTWC and now 5.0 (90kt) from SSD:

TXPQ21 KNES 130257
TCSWNP

A. 28W (MELOR)
B. 13/0230Z
C. 12.1N
D. 129.7E
E. ONE/HIMAWARI-8
F. T5.0/5.0/D2.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...MG EYE EMBEDDED IN LG AND SURROUNDED BY W FOR DT=5.0.
MET=4.5, PT=5.0 AND 6HR AVG DT=5.1. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL

...SALEMI

PAGASA still has this as a STS (local name "Nona"). It mentions in its 11AM update that "It is possible to raise PSWS #1 over Camarines Norte, Southern Quezon, Marinduque and Romblon tonight."
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#84 Postby 1900hurricane » Sat Dec 12, 2015 11:46 pm

Eye temp is now breaking positive per ADT.
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#85 Postby ManilaTC » Sun Dec 13, 2015 12:01 am

Looks like its bombing if not already.
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#86 Postby supercane » Sun Dec 13, 2015 12:11 am

:uarrow: If we accept NHC's definition of rapid intensification as "An increase in the maximum sustained winds of a tropical cyclone of at least 30 kt in a 24-h period," then Melor has indeed rapidly intensified. JTWC's best track showed the required 30kt increase in 24hr (time in left and intensity in rightmost column):
2815121200 105N1346E 45
2815121206 109N1334E 50
2815121218 115N1312E 55
2815121300 119N1302E 75
It's even more impressive if JMA is used as the data source, with the MSW increasing from 35kt at 06Z on 12 Dec to 75kt at 03Z on 13 Dec for an increase of 40kt in 21hr.
Last edited by supercane on Sun Dec 13, 2015 12:13 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#87 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Dec 13, 2015 12:12 am

these Dvorak numbers are some of the most inaccurate I've seen.

Eye is WMG and CDO is W. Nearing 140 knots as we speak.
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#88 Postby ManilaTC » Sun Dec 13, 2015 12:15 am

I have this gut feel that Melor may pass much closer to Manila. Lets see :)
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Re: WPAC: MELOR - Typhoon

#89 Postby dexterlabio » Sun Dec 13, 2015 12:22 am

ManilaTC wrote:I have this gut feel that Melor may pass much closer to Manila. Lets see :)


Recent GFS run kinda shows that possibility, but it looks like it will stall then weaken due to the cold surge from the monsoon... well I am looking forward to that cold surge if that will make the weather in Manila feel Christmas-y. :lol:
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Re: WPAC: MELOR - Typhoon

#90 Postby ManilaTC » Sun Dec 13, 2015 12:27 am

dexterlabio wrote:
ManilaTC wrote:I have this gut feel that Melor may pass much closer to Manila. Lets see :)


Recent GFS run kinda shows that possibility, but it looks like it will stall then weaken due to the cold surge from the monsoon... well I am looking forward to that cold surge if that will make the weather in Manila feel Christmas-y. :lol:


Yeah, it feels like March than December over the last couple of weeks
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#91 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Dec 13, 2015 12:27 am

Yesterday around this time, I made the mention that Melor's developing core was almost as small as In-fa's, and that certainly remains the case now. This is a tiny typhoon.

Image
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Re:

#92 Postby dexterlabio » Sun Dec 13, 2015 12:33 am

1900hurricane wrote:Yesterday around this time, I made the mention that Melor's developing core was almost as small as In-fa's, and that certainly remains the case now. This is a tiny typhoon.

Image



How do Infa and Melor's size compare to that of Parma in 2009? I remember Parma having a very small and compact core and pinhole eye also..
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#93 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Dec 13, 2015 12:43 am

They're all pretty small. Here's Melor, In-fa (prior to eyewall replacement which made it a little larger), and Parma, respectively. Parma looks a little larger, but that's probably because of the convection. Parma's convection was way deeper than the other two, pretty much on par with Haiyan.

Image

Image

Image
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Re: WPAC: MELOR - Typhoon

#94 Postby mrbagyo » Sun Dec 13, 2015 12:49 am

Image
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#95 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Dec 13, 2015 1:26 am

Image
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#96 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sun Dec 13, 2015 2:52 am

PAGASA is a joke. They say it's a severe tropical storm but not noticing any sign of the eye. Are they serious?? This is a potentially dangerous threat given the intensification of the typhoon.

Also, the storm is going south of the forecast tracks.

Image
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Re: WPAC: MELOR - Typhoon

#97 Postby euro6208 » Sun Dec 13, 2015 3:39 am

Image

Quite a discrepancy. Map saying it's a category 2 but progs saying it's a 105 knots category 3. I agree with the latter due to it rapidly organizing...

WDPN31 PGTW 130900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 28W (MELOR) WARNING NR 08//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 28W (MELOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 492 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS TIGHTLY CURVED SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
10-NM DIAMETER EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE
IN THE MSI LOOP WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 105
KNOTS IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES.
TY
28W IS TRACKING JUST SOUTH OF A DEEP LAYER SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
AXIS IN VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, WITH LOW (10-15
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (ABOVE
28 CELSIUS), AND ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE, HOWEVER THE PEAK FORECAST INTENSITY
HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARDS.
B. TY MELOR WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AND THE CURRENT INTENSIFICATION
TREND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO A PEAK OF 105 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS TOWARDS SOUTHERN LUZON. AFTER TAU 24, LAND
INTERACTION WILL RESULT IN A RAPID WEAKENING.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, A GREATLY WEAKENED TY 28W WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD WITH THE STRONG NORTHERLY COLD SURGE IN THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA. INCREASING VWS, LAND INTERACTION, AND INFLUX OF COLD DRY
AIR FROM THE SURGE WILL EVENTUALLY CAUSE ITS DISSIPATION BY TAU 96.
THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT UP TO TAU 72,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE UP TO THAT PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: MELOR - Typhoon

#98 Postby euro6208 » Sun Dec 13, 2015 3:42 am

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 13 DEC 2015 Time : 080000 UTC
Lat : 12:19:14 N Lon : 128:44:44 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.2 / 966.6mb/ 94.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.2 5.4 6.0

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 7 km

Center Temp : -8.1C Cloud Region Temp : -70.7C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 101km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 20.3 degrees

****************************************************
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Re: WPAC: MELOR - Typhoon

#99 Postby euro6208 » Sun Dec 13, 2015 4:58 am

The agencies are all playing catchup. It's stronger than every warning being put out.

TXPQ21 KNES 130859
TCSWNP

A. 28W (MELOR)

B. 13/0830Z

C. 12.3N

D. 128.6E

E. ONE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T6.0/6.0/D2.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED RAPIDLY OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS
RESULTING IN A MET OF 5.0 AND A PT OF 5.5. DG EYE IS EMBEDDED IN W AND
SURROUNDED BY CMG RESULTING IN A DT OF 6.5 AFTER 0.5 IS ADDED AS AN EYE
ADJUSTMENT. THE AVERAGE SUBJECTIVE DT CALCULATED HOURLY OVER THE LAST
6 HOURS ENDING AT 0830Z WAS 5.8, WHICH SERVES AS THE BASIS FOR THE FT
AND JUSTIFIES BREAKING DVORAK CONSTRAINTS.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TURK
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Re: WPAC: MELOR - Typhoon

#100 Postby euro6208 » Sun Dec 13, 2015 4:59 am

Image
Image
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