WPAC: MELOR - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: MELOR - Typhoon

#101 Postby mrbagyo » Sun Dec 13, 2015 5:14 am

PAGASA just upgraded Melor/Nona to Typhoon status - 140 kph ( 10 minute sustained)
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Re: WPAC: MELOR - Typhoon

#102 Postby euro6208 » Sun Dec 13, 2015 6:04 am

All models are underestimating this at this time...

Something interesting is that some models develop the remnants of Melor as it drifts to the southwest across the South China Sea into a possible cyclone for the North Indian Ocean...
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Re: WPAC: MELOR - Typhoon

#103 Postby cycloneye » Sun Dec 13, 2015 7:42 am

Yikes,115kts.

28W MELOR 151213 1200 12.4N 128.0E WPAC 115 937
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Re: WPAC: MELOR - Typhoon

#104 Postby oaba09 » Sun Dec 13, 2015 8:05 am

Looks like this caught everyone by surprise....A system developing in December is one thing but a typhoon? I was already on holiday mode so I wasn't really following this closely until I saw the alarming updates from JTWC....
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#105 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sun Dec 13, 2015 8:08 am

God bless the Philippines...

WTPN31 PGTW 131500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 28W (MELOR) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131200Z --- NEAR 12.4N 128.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.4N 128.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 12.7N 125.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 13.1N 123.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 13.5N 122.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 13.9N 121.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 13.8N 120.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 13.1N 120.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
131500Z POSITION NEAR 12.5N 127.5E.
TYPHOON 28W (MELOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 429 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 38 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 132100Z, 140300Z, 140900Z AND 141500Z.//
NNNN
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#106 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Dec 13, 2015 8:52 am

Melor is undergoing eyewall replacement.

Image
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#107 Postby dexterlabio » Sun Dec 13, 2015 8:55 am

^I really can't see this going up to super status without an EWRC. Idk but the small core and pinhole eye looks unstable to me..
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Re: WPAC: MELOR - Typhoon

#108 Postby mrbagyo » Sun Dec 13, 2015 9:26 am

Just what i expected - EWRC.
Now, Melor will begin to gain some size.

dexterlabio wrote:^I really can't see this going up to super status without an EWRC. Idk but the small core and pinhole eye looks unstable to me..


Yep, and pinhole eye collapse almost always signals the start of an EWRC.

- idk but the similarities between this typhoon and Durian06 is getting more bizarre. Haha :?: .
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#109 Postby Alyono » Sun Dec 13, 2015 9:28 am

not so sure this is an eyewall replacement. Looks like some shear to me
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#110 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Dec 13, 2015 12:07 pm

This probably reached 130-135 knots last night but now is weakening steadily likely down to 115ish.
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Re: WPAC: MELOR - Typhoon

#111 Postby cycloneye » Sun Dec 13, 2015 1:27 pm

Weakening.

Image
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Re:

#112 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Dec 13, 2015 2:55 pm

Alyono wrote:not so sure this is an eyewall replacement. Looks like some shear to me


I'd suspect the current weakening is a result of both. The latest AMSR2 pass shows both a larger eye diameter and the coldest brightness temperatures biased somewhat to the eastern side of the circulation.

Image
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Re: WPAC: MELOR - Typhoon

#113 Postby euro6208 » Sun Dec 13, 2015 4:23 pm

Image

Imminent landfall...

WDPN31 PGTW 132100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 28W (MELOR) WARNING NR 10//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 28W (MELOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 369NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS TIGHTLY CURVED SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN
8-NM DIAMETER EYE, WITH DVORAK ANALYSIS SUGGESTING THE PERIOD OF
RAPID INTENSIFICATION HAS LIKELY ENDED AS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
TY MELOR IS BEGINNING TO INTERACT WITH THE PHILIPPINE ARCHIPELAGO.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN THE EIR LOOP
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 110 KNOTS
BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 90 TO 115
KNOTS, AND TAKES INTO ACCOUNT THE FALLING DVORAK FINAL-T NUMBERS.
THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A
DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE, WITH LOW (5-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS), 28-29 DEGREE CELSIUS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND
ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AS EVIDENCED ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE, HOWEVER, FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS NO
LONGER INDICATED.
B. TY MELOR WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS. BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE ANALYSIS, GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG
INTENSITY GUIDANCE, AND INCREASING LAND INTERACTION, THE INTENSITY
IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DECREASE OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AFTER TAU
36, THIS DECAY TREND WILL BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASING VWS AND THE INTRUSION OF COLD DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRONG CONTINENTAL COLD SURGE IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. BETWEEN TAUS
48-72, TY 28W WILL SLOW AS THE STEERING MECHANISM SHIFTS FROM A DEEP
LAYER MEAN FLOW TO THE LOW LEVEL SURGE FLOW.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, A GREATLY WEAKENED TY 28W WILL ACCELERATE
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD WITH THE STRONG NORTHERLY COLD SURGE IN THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA. AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT UP TO
TAU 48, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE UP TO THAT PORTION OF THE JTWC
FORECAST.//
NNNN
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#114 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Dec 13, 2015 4:35 pm

Looks like the issues that brought Melor down earlier are no longer present. Killer microwave presentation.

Image
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#115 Postby Dave C » Sun Dec 13, 2015 4:56 pm

Daytime landfall coming, looks like Samar landfall unless it moves more nw. :double:
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Re: WPAC: MELOR - Typhoon

#116 Postby mrbagyo » Sun Dec 13, 2015 5:01 pm

1900hurricane wrote:Looks like the issues that brought Melor down earlier are no longer present. Killer microwave presentation.

Image


JTWC forecast it to go downhill steadily but MELOR just keeps busting their intensity outlook.
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#117 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Dec 13, 2015 5:49 pm

If Melor doesn't miss the northern edge of Samar, it's not going to be by a large margin at all.
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#118 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Dec 13, 2015 6:48 pm

Looks like it will just clip the northern coast of Samar, then stay over water to Sorsogon. The small size is the only thing that may prevent a significant storm surge in the very narrow Albay Gulf.
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Re: WPAC: MELOR - Typhoon

#119 Postby mrbagyo » Sun Dec 13, 2015 7:30 pm

From PAGASA
Image
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#120 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sun Dec 13, 2015 8:15 pm

Looks like landfall is about to take place at the town of Palapag or Mapanas on Samar Island at around 12 noon
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