SIO: BOHALE - Post-Tropical

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SIO: BOHALE - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby jaguarjace » Tue Dec 08, 2015 4:46 pm

97S INVEST 151208 1800 10.5S 73.2E SHEM 25 1004
Image

ZCZC 418
WTIO20 FMEE 081201
SECURITE
WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 08/12/2015
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 001/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).
WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 08/12/2015 AT 1200 UTC.
PHENOMENON: DISTURBANCE 2 1004 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.2 S / 73.8 E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY THREE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 15 KT
THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 350 NM FROM THE CENTER MAINLY WITHIN
THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 15/25 KT AND MODERATE SEAS REACHING LOCALLY
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS WITH ROUGH SEAS IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND RATHER FAR AWAY FROM THE CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2015/12/09 AT 00 UTC:
12.2 S / 72.1 E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
24H, VALID 2015/12/09 AT 12 UTC:
13.6 S / 71.0 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT JUSTIFY THE ISSUANCE OF
REGULAR WARNINGS.=
NNNN

Forecasted to become a Tropical Depression at 12Z
Last edited by jaguarjace on Sat Dec 12, 2015 8:25 pm, edited 6 times in total.
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#2 Postby Alyono » Tue Dec 08, 2015 8:41 pm

ASCAT showed a fairly large area of 35 kt winds earlier. This is a cyclone
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#3 Postby supercane » Wed Dec 09, 2015 12:26 am

Text of earlier advisory from La Reunion:
WTIO30 FMEE 081324
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/2/20152016
1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 2
2.A POSITION 2015/12/08 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.2 S / 73.8 E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY THREE DECIMAL EIGHT
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 15 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.5/1.5/D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1004 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/12/09 00 UTC: 12.2 S / 72.1 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
24H: 2015/12/09 12 UTC: 13.6 S / 71.0 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2015/12/10 00 UTC: 15.1 S / 70.1 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2015/12/10 12 UTC: 16.5 S / 69.3 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
60H: 2015/12/11 00 UTC: 17.8 S / 68.8 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
72H: 2015/12/11 12 UTC: 19.2 S / 68.5 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2015/12/12 12 UTC: 22.8 S / 67.8 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, POST-TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
120H: 2015/12/13 12 UTC: 27.0 S / 66.8 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=CI=1.5
DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS, THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS STRENGTHENED
SOMEWHAT AND GAINED IN COVERAGE WITHIN THIS SYSTEM. ASCAT DATA OF
LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING SHOW AN ELONGATED AND ILL-DEFINED SURFACE
CIRCULATION CENTER. HOWEVER, THE OVERALL LOW LEVEL ORGANIZATION IS
SLOWLY IMPROVING. THE SYSTEM IS UNDER A MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR
CONSTRAINT AND THE ESTIMATED CENTER IS LOCATED TO THE NORTH AND EAST
OF THE MAIN CONVECTION. THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS RATHER WELL
DEFINED ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
SINCE 08Z, A STRONG BURST OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED TO THE WEST OF
THE CENTER. IN THE MEANTIME, THE CENTER SEEMS TO MAKE A WESTWARDS
LEAP ACCORDING TO THE SSMI OF 0942Z AND RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON INITIAL DVORAK ANALYSIS AND ASCAT
DATA.
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. ALL NWP GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A GRADUAL
POLEWARDS TRACK WITHIN THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A PERSISTENT WEAKNESS IN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN MORE OR LESS NEAR 70E.
THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW REMAINS GOOD EQUATORWARDS UNTIL WEDNESDAY
EVENING BUT REMAINS GOOD ON THE TRADEWINDS SIDE AT LEAST UNTIL FRIDAY.
THURSDAY THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SHOULD
HAVE A 24 TO 36 HOURS PERIOD OF LIGHT SHEAR BEFORE AN INCREASE IN
NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR FRIDAY NIGHT. ALL THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE DO NOT
DEVELOP A STRONG SYSTEM WITHIN THE NEXT FEW DAYS ... SUGGESTING AT MOST
A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT JUSTIFY THE ISSUANCE OF
REGULAR ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME.
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#4 Postby supercane » Wed Dec 09, 2015 1:10 pm

WTIO30 FMEE 091228

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 3/2/20152016
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 2

2.A POSITION 2015/12/09 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.9 S / 71.9 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY ONE DECIMAL
NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/D 0.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1003 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):





7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/12/10 00 UTC: 14.1 S / 70.7 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
24H: 2015/12/10 12 UTC: 15.1 S / 69.6 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2015/12/11 00 UTC: 15.9 S / 68.7 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2015/12/11 12 UTC: 16.5 S / 68.0 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2015/12/12 00 UTC: 17.5 S / 67.1 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2015/12/12 12 UTC: 18.9 S / 66.0 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2015/12/13 12 UTC: 22.4 S / 64.3 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW
120H: 2015/12/14 12 UTC: 26.7 S / 64.9 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=CI=2.0

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PRESENT MOSTLY IN
THE SOUTHERN PART. THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION IS STILL PARTIALLY
EXPOSED WITH A FLUCTUATING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE NORTH-WESTERLY
WIND SHEAR IS STILL MODERATE OR RATHER STRONG, WHEREAS THE UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS GOOD.

THE SYSTEM IS MOVING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. NWP GUIDANCE SUGGEST A TRACK ORIENTED TOWARDS A PERSISTENT
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THERE ARE MAINLY TWO SCENARIOS, A
SOUTHWARD TRACK LIKE GFS OR A SOUTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT LIKE CEP. THE
SECOND ONE,SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSE TO THE EAST OF
RODRIGUES ISLAND, ON SUNDAY. THE RMSC OFFICIAL FORECAST FAVOUR THIS
LAST SCENARIO.

ON THIS PATH, FROM TONIGHT, THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE UNDER THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND SO HAVE A 36 TO 48 HOURS PERIOD OF LIGHT SHEAR BEFORE
AN INCREASE IN NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR SATURDAY. HOWEVER UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE WILL BE LESS CONDUCIVE. THEREFORE, THIS LOW SHOULD NOT
DEEPEN BEYOND THE MODERATE TROPICAL STORM STAGE.

NEXT WEEK, GRADUAL INCREASE IN WIND SHEAR AND THE LACK OF OCEANIC
CONTENT WILL LEAD TO THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM.=
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#5 Postby supercane » Wed Dec 09, 2015 1:56 pm

ABIO10 PGTW 091800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/091800Z-101800ZDEC2015//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.5S
73.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.03S 71.92E, APPROXIMATELY 400 NM SOUTH
OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 091435Z
SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT, DEEP, FLARING CONVECTION LOCATED IN
THE SOUTH AND WEST PERIPHERIES. THE LLCC REMAINS ELONGATED WITH
CONVECTION ABSENT TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. A 091315Z WINDSAT PASS
SHOWED LOW-LEVEL WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS NEAR THE CENTER, AND 30
KNOTS WITHIN THE STRONGEST CONVECTION TO THE WEST. THE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT REMAINS MARGINALY FAVORABLE WITH MODERATE (20 TO 30
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BEING PARTIALLY OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF
THE LLCC OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
TRACK SOUTHWARD AND CLOSER TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MIMIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.//
NNNN
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#6 Postby supercane » Wed Dec 09, 2015 3:05 pm

WTIO30 FMEE 091915

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/2/20152016
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 2

2.A POSITION 2015/12/09 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.3 S / 71.1 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY ONE DECIMAL
ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 13 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/S 0.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1001 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):





7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/12/10 06 UTC: 15.3 S / 69.9 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
24H: 2015/12/10 18 UTC: 16.0 S / 69.0 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2015/12/11 06 UTC: 16.7 S / 68.2 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2015/12/11 18 UTC: 17.7 S / 67.2 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2015/12/12 06 UTC: 18.8 S / 66.2 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2015/12/12 18 UTC: 20.5 S / 65.1 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2015/12/13 18 UTC: 24.9 S / 64.3 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2015/12/14 18 UTC: 27.5 S / 66.1 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=CI=2.0

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS AND WITHIN THE FAVORABLE DIURNAL CYCLE OF
CONVECTION OVER SEAS, STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED TO THE WEST
OF THE STILL PARTLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CENTER (ACCORDING TO LATEST MW
IMAGERY). ON THE CURRENT TRACK, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOON
UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITHIN AN AREA OF LOWER VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR.
THEREFORE, A MORE STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED AND COULD START
AS EARLY AS TONIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS EXCELLENT OVER THE
WESTERN AND ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN SECTORS WHERE IT IS ENHANCED BY A
REMOTE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED JET STREAM.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY ANALYSIS IS BASED ON DVORAK AND IS LOCATED ON
THE UPPER SIDE OF THE CURRENT ESTIMATION.

THE SYSTEM IS MOVING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. NWP GUIDANCE SUGGEST A TRACK ORIENTED TOWARDS A PERSISTENT
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THERE ARE MAINLY TWO SCENARIOS, A
SOUTHWARD TRACK LIKE GFS OR A SOUTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT LIKE THE EURO
MODEL. THE SECOND ONE,SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM COULD BE NOT SO FAR TO
THE EAST OF RODRIGUES ISLAND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE RMSC OFFICIAL
FORECAST FAVOR THIS LAST SCENARIO.

ON THIS PATH, FROM TONIGHT, THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE UNDER THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND SO HAVE A NEAR 36 HOURS PERIOD OF LIGHT SHEAR BEFORE
AN INCREASE IN NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR FRIDAY NIGHT.
SOUTH OF 20S, GRADUAL INCREASE IN WIND SHEAR AND THE LACK OF OCEANIC
CONTENT SHOULD ALLOW THE START OF THE EXTRATROPICAL PROCESS.=
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Re: SIO: Tropical Depression 2 (INVEST 97S)

#7 Postby jaguarjace » Wed Dec 09, 2015 7:52 pm

Image

97S INVEST 151210 0000 14.0S 70.8E SHEM 30 999

Bulletin du 10 décembre à 04H41 locales Réunion:
DEPRESSION TROPICALE 02-20152016.
Pression estimée au centre: 999 HPA.
Position le 10 décembre à 04 heures locales Réunion: 14.3 Sud / 70.6 Est.
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#8 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Dec 09, 2015 7:59 pm

JTWC finally issued a Tropical Cyclone Formation Advisory.
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Wayward meteorology student on a journey back to the promised land.

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#9 Postby supercane » Wed Dec 09, 2015 8:32 pm

WTXS21 PGTW 092300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.4S 71.8E TO 16.8S 69.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 34 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 091800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.7S 71.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.1S
72.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.7S 71.6E, APPROXIMATELY 400 NM SOUTH
OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA
OF EXPANDING DEEP CONVECTION SUPPORTED BY IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW
TOWARD A DEEPENING MID-LATITUDE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH. A
092055Z MHS 89 GHZ IMAGE INDICATES THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) HAS BEGUN TO CONSOLIDATE AND TUCK UNDER A SHIELD OF
CENTRAL CONVECTION. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE WITH MODERATE (20 TO 30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CONDUCIVE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES CONTINUED
STRENGTHENING OF THE LLCC OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM
TRACKS SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 34 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. BASED ON THE IMPROVING CONVECTIVE
SIGNATURE AND STRONG OUTFLOW PATTERN, THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
102300Z.//
NNNN

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WTIO30 FMEE 100114

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/2/20152016
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2

2.A POSITION 2015/12/10 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.3 S / 70.6 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY DECIMAL SIX
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 999 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 200 NW: 170




7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/12/10 12 UTC: 15.2 S / 69.6 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
24H: 2015/12/11 00 UTC: 16.0 S / 69.0 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2015/12/11 12 UTC: 16.8 S / 68.3 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2015/12/12 00 UTC: 17.9 S / 67.7 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2015/12/12 12 UTC: 19.7 S / 66.6 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2015/12/13 00 UTC: 21.8 S / 65.6 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2015/12/14 00 UTC: 26.3 S / 64.6 E, MAX WIND=030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2015/12/15 00 UTC: 27.4 S / 65.3 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=CI=2.5-

THE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED AN IMPRESSIVE CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH CLOUD TOPS TEMPERATURE AS LOW AS -91AOC ON N19
IMAGERY OF 2055Z. AVAILABLE FIX DURING THE NIGHT ALLOW SOME
RELOCATION OF THE 18Z ESTIMATE NEAR 13.9S-71.4E OR AROUND 30 NM TO
THE NNE OF THE PREVIOUS POSITION. THE CENTER IS NOW LOCATED UNDER THE
CONVECTIVE MASS AND THIS IS A SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT OF THE CLOUD
PATTERN COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE REMAINS
EXCELLENT OVER THE WESTERN AND ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN SECTORS WHERE
IT IS ENHANCED BY A REMOTE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED JET
STREAM.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY ANALYSIS IS BASED ON DVORAK AND IS LOCATED ON
THE UPPER SIDE OF THE CURRENT ESTIMATION.

THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF A WEAKNESS OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR 70E IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS (FROM 850 TO 500
MB). TODAY, THE WEAKNESS SHOULD BACK OFF IN THE LOW LEVELS (SFC TO
850 MB) AS A TRANSIENT HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD. BUT IN THE
MID-LEVELS (700 BUT ESPECIALLY AT 500 MB), THE WEAKNESS IS STILL
PRESENT ASSOCIATED WITH A RATHER WELL DEFINED RIDGE TO THE EAST OF
THE SYSTEM. BASICALLY, THE SPREAD IN THE FORECAST TRACKS IS STRONGER
COMPARED TO 24-36H WITH SOME WESTWARDS SCENARII, SEEN SINCE YESTERDAY
AND ALSO SHOWN BY THE EURO ENSEMBLE. THE GFS INSISTS WITH ITS MORE
POLEWARDS TRACK AND IS LOCATED ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE. ALL
THIS DIFFERENCES SEEMS TO COME FROM A DISAGREEMENT ABOUT WHERE THE
STEERING LEVEL WILL BE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW DAYS ... THE LEVEL OF THE
STEERING FLOW IS LINKED WITH THE INTENSITY FORECAST. THE EURO 18Z RUN
SHOW A BACK OFF THE TRACK TOWARD THE EAST. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK
IS CLOSE TO THE EURO-UK-GFS CONSENSUS AND FOLLOW A STEERING LEVEL
NEAR 700 MB IN AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK FORECAST.


ON THIS PATH, FROM TONIGHT, THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE UNDER THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND SO HAVE A NEAR 36 HOURS PERIOD OF LIGHT SHEAR BEFORE
AN INCREASE IN NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THE UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS EXPECTED SHOULD DECREASE AS SOON AS FRIDAY ... SO
THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE THAT THE SYSTEM INTENSIFY FURTHER THAT A
MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM.
SOUTH OF 20S, GRADUAL INCREASE IN WIND SHEAR AND THE LACK OF OCEANIC
CONTENT SHOULD ALLOW THE START OF THE EXTRATROPICAL PROCESS.=
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#10 Postby supercane » Thu Dec 10, 2015 9:53 am

WTXS31 PGTW 100900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z --- NEAR 14.0S 70.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 14.0S 70.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 14.5S 69.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 15.3S 68.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 16.6S 67.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 17.9S 66.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 21.3S 64.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 24.8S 63.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 28.1S 65.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
100900Z POSITION NEAR 14.1S 69.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 439 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
TIGHTLY WRAPPED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH SYMMETRIC
DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING VERTICALLY OVER THE CORE. A RECENT 100139Z
SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE LLCC REMAINS ALONG THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION WITH MULTIPLE BANDS OF
CONVECTION BUILDING FROM THE SOUTHERN BOUNDARY ALONG THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE SYSTEM INTO THE CENTER. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
INDICATES A DENSE WARM CORE OF MOISTURE BUT A THIN RIBBON OF DRY AIR
HAS STARTED TO BUILD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. THIS DRY AIR HAS
NOT YET MADE IT TO THE CORE, BUT WILL HINDER STRONG DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE FORECAST PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC 05S IS
LOCATED WITHIN A REGION OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR(VWS), WHICH WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TAU 72, WHEN MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES WILL LEAD TO
THE QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH LEVELS OF VWS (25 TO 30 KNOTS). SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE VICINITY OF TC 05S ARE MARGINAL FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT (27 CELSIUS), BUT THEY TOO WILL BECOME
UNFAVORABLE AFTER TAU 72, LEADING TO A WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM. TC
05S IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR), BUT MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE STR WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
ALLOWING TC 05S TO SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHWESTERN TRACK IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. BEYOND TAU 96, INCREASING INTERACTION WITH THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES WILL LEAD TO THE DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM BY TAU 120.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO; HOWEVER
THERE ARE SOME DISPARITIES IN THE TIMING OF THE SOUTHWESTERN TURN
AND THE TIMING OF DISSIPATION. GIVEN THESE VARIABLES, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
100600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z AND 110900Z. THIS
WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI 092251ZDEC15 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW
092300).//
NNNN

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WTIO30 FMEE 101223

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/2/20152016
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2

2.A POSITION 2015/12/10 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.6 S / 69.8 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY NINE DECIMAL
EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 170 SW: 200 NW: 170




7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : UNKNOWN

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/12/11 00 UTC: 15.4 S / 68.6 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2015/12/11 12 UTC: 16.2 S / 67.9 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2015/12/12 00 UTC: 17.5 S / 66.8 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2015/12/12 12 UTC: 19.0 S / 65.5 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2015/12/13 00 UTC: 21.0 S / 64.6 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2015/12/13 12 UTC: 23.6 S / 63.7 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2015/12/14 12 UTC: 26.9 S / 63.3 E, MAX WIND=025 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2015/12/15 12 UTC: 27.6 S / 66.2 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=CI=2.5

OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS, THE CONVECTION AREA HAS SHRUNK AND WARMED UP.
IN THE MEANTIME, A CURVED BAND EMERGED AROUND THE CENTER, WITH AN
ESTIMATED WRAPING OF AROUND .4. AMSR2 0739Z MICROWAVE DATA DISPLAY A
CLOSED CONVECTION RING, LIMITED TO THE MID-TROPOSPHERE AND PROBABLY
FORMED THANKS TO LAST NIGHT STRONG CONVECTION BURST. IN THE LOW
LEVELS, THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE STILL SEEMS QUITE POORLY DEFINED. THE
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE HAS IMPROVED IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
SECTORS, THE POWERFUL SOUTHERN OUTFLOW CHANNEL BEING MAINTAINED.

THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WESTSOUTHWESTWARD, STEERED BY A LOW
TO MID LEVELS FLOW, NORTH OF A HIGH GEOPOTENTIAL CELL. OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS, THE TRACK SHOULD BEND SOUTHWESTWARD. INDEED, WITH A LIGHT
INTENSIFICATION FORECAST, THE STEERING FLOW SHOULD GO UP ABOVE 700HPA
AND BE DRIVEN BY A RIDGE IN THE EAST AND A GEOPOTENTIAL WEAKNESS IN
THE SOUTH. AVAILABLE NWP AND ENSEMBLE FORECAST SPREAD HAS DECREASED,
THE OFFICIAL SCENARIO IS CLOSE TO THE ECMWF TRACK. AVNO IS AN OUTLIER
WITH ITS MORE EASTERN TRACK, LINKED WITH ITS STRONGER DEEPENING
FORECAST.

THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE LIGHT SHEAR
WINDOW SHOULD CLOSE SATURDAY, WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE OF NORTHERN TO
NORTHWESTERN VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. HOWEVER, LOW LEVELS CONVERGENCE WILL
BE GRADUALLY DISRUPTED BY A DRIER AIR MASS WRAPING AROUND THE SYSTEM,
WITHOUT REACHING ITS CORE. THUS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD NOT EXCEED THE
MODERATE TROPICAL STORM STAGE. SOUTH OF 20S, GRADUAL INCREASE IN WIND
SHEAR AND THE LACK OF OCEANIC CONTENT SHOULD ALLOW THE START OF THE
EXTRATROPICAL PROCESS.=
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#11 Postby supercane » Thu Dec 10, 2015 3:27 pm

WTIO30 FMEE 101900

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/2/20152016
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2

2.A POSITION 2015/12/10 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.3 S / 69.7 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY NINE DECIMAL
SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/S 0.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :83 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 170 SE: 170 SW: NW:




7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/12/11 06 UTC: 15.9 S / 69.0 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2015/12/11 18 UTC: 16.9 S / 68.0 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2015/12/12 06 UTC: 18.1 S / 67.0 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2015/12/12 18 UTC: 19.6 S / 66.0 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2015/12/13 06 UTC: 21.3 S / 65.1 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
72H: 2015/12/13 18 UTC: 23.2 S / 64.3 E, MAX WIND=030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2015/12/14 18 UTC: 26.7 S / 66.1 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW
120H: 2015/12/15 18 UTC: 28.5 S / 70.6 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=2.5- CI=2.5
DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECAME VERY WEAK AT THE END OF THE AFTERNOON. LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE HAS SEEMED BE DISRUPTED BY A DRIER AIR MASS WRAPING
AROUND THE SYSTEM (CIMSS TPW PRODUCT AND 1515Z VAPOR SSMIS MICROWAVE
IMAGERY
SINCE THIS EVENING, A FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTION BANDING HAS TRIED TO
BUILD SOUTH AND WEST TO THE SYSTEM.
THE SYSTEM IS EXTENDING BY A TROPICAL PLUME AHEAD THE SUBTROPICAL JET
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST ONTO THE MID-LATITUDE.
1725Z ASCAT SWATH CONFIRMS THE CURRENT INTENSITY AND SHOWS STRONGEST
WINDS FATHER FAR OF THE CENTER.


THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WESTSOUTHWESTWARD, STEERED BY A LOW
TO MID LEVELS FLOW, NORTH OF A HIGH GEOPOTENTIAL CELL. OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS, THE TRACK SHOULD BEND SOUTHWESTWARD. INDEED, WITH A LIGHT
INTENSIFICATION FORECAST, THE STEERING FLOW SHOULD GO UP ABOVE 700HPA
AND BE DRIVEN BY A RIDGE IN THE EAST AND A GEOPOTENTIAL WEAKNESS IN
THE SOUTH. AVAILABLE NWP AND ENSEMBLE FORECAST SPREAD HAS DECREASED,
THE OFFICIAL SCENARIO IS CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF GFS AND ECMWF.

THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUT VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR SHOULD REMAINS NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHWARD ABOUT 15 KT. FROM
SATURDAY, WINDSHEAR SHOULD BECOME NORTHWESTWARD AHEAD A NEW UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND SHOULD GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN. THUS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD
NOT EXCEED THE MODERATE TROPICAL STORM STAGE.
SUNDAY EVOLVING SOUTH OF 20S, WITH THE INCREASE IN WIND SHEAR AND THE
LACK OF OCEANIC CONTENT, THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN QUICKLY.=
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#12 Postby supercane » Thu Dec 10, 2015 4:27 pm

WTXS31 PGTW 102100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z --- NEAR 15.6S 69.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S 69.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 16.6S 68.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 17.5S 67.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 18.7S 66.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 20.4S 65.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 24.6S 63.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
102100Z POSITION NEAR 15.9S 69.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 542 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A TIGHTLY WRAPPED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
DEEP CONVECTION BECOMING MORE FRAGMENTED AND DISORGANIZED OVER THE
PREVIOUS 12 HOURS. A RECENT 101725Z 89 GHZ AMSU IMAGE REVEALS THE
STRONGEST CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED IN MOST QUADRANTS EXCEPT FOR THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY. SCATTEROMETRY DATA FROM A 101726Z ASCAT-B PASS
DEPICTS A FAIRLY SYMMETRIC LLCC WITH 25 TO 35 KNOT WINDS SURROUNDING
THE SYSTEM, AND ISOLATED 40 KNOT WINDS WITHIN THE CONVECTION TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY-
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS) AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. OUTFLOW HAS ALSO
IMPROVED ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE VICINITY OF TC 05S
ARE MARGINAL FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT (27 CELSIUS), BUT THEY TOO WILL
BECOME UNFAVORABLE AFTER TAU 48, LEADING TO A WEAKENING OF THE
SYSTEM. TC 05S IS TRACKING GENERALLY SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR), BUT MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT THE STR WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT WESTWARD AND NUDGE TC 05S
SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. PASSAGE OVER COOLER WATER
AND INCREASING INTERACTION WITH UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WILL
RESULT IN DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM BY TAU 72. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO; HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME
DISPARITIES IN THE TIMING, INTENSITY, AND MOVEMENT OF 05S, AS IT
INTERACTS WITH THE RIDGE. GIVEN THESE VARIABLES THE CURRENT FORECAST
LIES CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 110900Z AND 112100Z.//
NNNN
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Re: SIO: BOHALE - Moderate Tropical Storm

#13 Postby jaguarjace » Thu Dec 10, 2015 7:45 pm

Image

ZCZC 202
WTIO30 FMEE 110044
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/2/20152016
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 2 (BOHALE)
2.A POSITION 2015/12/11 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.8 S / 69.3 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY NINE DECIMAL
THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 6 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/S 0.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 996 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :83 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 220 SW: 170 NW: 170
34 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SW: 80 NW: 80
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/12/11 12 UTC: 16.6 S / 68.7 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2015/12/12 00 UTC: 17.9 S / 67.7 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2015/12/12 12 UTC: 19.5 S / 66.6 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2015/12/13 00 UTC: 21.3 S / 65.3 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2015/12/13 12 UTC: 23.7 S / 64.3 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
72H: 2015/12/14 00 UTC: 25.8 S / 63.7 E, MAX WIND=025 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2015/12/15 00 UTC: 28.5 S / 65.2 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, LOW
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=CI=2.5+
DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, DEEP CONVECTION HAS STRENGTHENED WITHIN A
CURVED BAND LOCATED IN THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN OF THE CENTER. 2200Z
37GHZ SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS A LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION
WELL DEFINED WITH AN EYE NEARLY CLOSED. THANKS TO THIS DATA AND THE
ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY, THE SYSTEM HAS NAMED BOHALE AT 0000Z.
BOHALE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WESTSOUTHWARD, STEERED BY A MID LEVELS
RIDGE IN THE EAST AND AND A GEOPOTENTIAL WEAKNESS IN THE SOUTH.
AVAILABLE NWP SPREAD HAS DECREASED WITH ANYWAY SOME DIFFERENCES OF
VELOCITY ALONG THIS TRACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL
SCENARIO IS CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE MODELS.
THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. TODAY, BOHALE
SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY BENEFITING FROM THIS LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR.
FROM SATURDAY, THE NORTWESTWARD VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AHEAD A NEW UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN TO BECOME MODERATE THEN
STRONG THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THUS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD NOT EXCEED THE
MODERATE TROPICAL STORM STAGE.
FROM SUNDAY EVOLVING SOUTH OF 20S, WITH THE INCREASE IN WIND SHEAR
AND THE LACK OF OCEANIC CONTENT, THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN.
FROM MONDAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD CURVE SOUTHEASTWARD AND FILL UP
GRADUALLY.=
NNNN
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#14 Postby supercane » Fri Dec 11, 2015 9:45 am

WTXS31 PGTW 110900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BOHALE) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BOHALE) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z --- NEAR 16.5S 69.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.5S 69.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 18.0S 68.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 19.6S 67.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 21.5S 67.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 23.8S 66.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 26.7S 66.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
110900Z POSITION NEAR 16.9S 69.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BOHALE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 594 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A TIGHTLY WRAPPED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH DEEP CONVECTION FLARING AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND A BRIEF PERIOD
OF REORGANIZATION HAS ALLOWED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS)
AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE VICINITY
OF TC 05S ARE MARGINAL FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT (27 CELSIUS), BUT
THEY TOO WILL BECOME UNFAVORABLE AFTER TAU 48, LEADING TO A
WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM. TC 05S IS TRACKING GENERALLY SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS TO A MORE SOUTHWARD
TREND, AS THE STR HAS SHIFTED MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED.
PASSAGE OVER COOLER WATER AND INCREASING INTERACTION WITH UPPER-
LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM BY TAU
72. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO AND GIVEN
THESE VARIABLES THE CURRENT FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS, WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
110600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z AND 120900Z.//
NNNN

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WTIO30 FMEE 111232

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/2/20152016
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 (EX-BOHALE)

2.A POSITION 2015/12/11 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.9 S / 68.6 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY EIGHT DECIMAL
SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.5/S 0.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 999 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :83 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 190 SW: 190 NW: 0




7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/12/12 00 UTC: 18.1 S / 67.6 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
24H: 2015/12/12 12 UTC: 19.4 S / 66.7 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
36H: 2015/12/13 00 UTC: 21.3 S / 65.8 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
48H: 2015/12/13 12 UTC: 23.3 S / 64.6 E, MAX WIND=025 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2015/12/14 00 UTC: 25.0 S / 63.6 E, MAX WIND=025 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2015/12/14 12 UTC: 26.5 S / 63.5 E, MAX WIND=025 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2015/12/15 12 UTC: 28.2 S / 64.5 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, LOW
120H: 2015/12/16 12 UTC: 29.4 S / 67.8 E, MAX WIND=015 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=2.0+ AND CI=2.5-

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, DEEP CONVECTION REMAINED CLOSE TO ITS
PREVIOUS LEVEL OF 06Z. MICROWAVE 39GHZ AMSR2 DATA AT 0821Z DO NOT
SHOW A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE LOW LEVEL PATTERN. VISIBLE IMAGERY
SHOW THAT CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, CLOSE
TO THE LLCC. PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY REVEALS THE ADVECTION OF DRY
AIR BY THE NORTH-WEST TO NORTH SECTORS OF THE CIRCULATION. THE
GENERAL FEELING IS THAT THIS SYSTEM IS ONLY MAKING A LIVING OF SORTS
DESPITE THE WEAKENED VERTICAL WINDSHEAR.

EX-BOHALE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD, STEERED BY A MID
LEVELS RIDGE IN THE EAST AND A GEOPOTENTIAL WEAKNESS IN THE SOUTH.
AVAILABLE NWP GUIDANCE STILL OVERESTIMATE THE SYSTEM INTENSITY.THE
ECMWF MODEL REMAINS THE MOST MODERATE IN TERMS OF INTENSITY. THE
CHOSEN SCENARIO IS THUS CLOSE TO THE ECMWF FORECAST, WITH THE
INTENSITY FLUCTUATING AROUND THE CURRENT LEVEL DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY AT THE FAR WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. FROM SATURDAY, THE NORTHWESTWARD VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AHEAD A
NEW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN TO BECOME MODERATE
THEN STRONG THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THUS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN UNDER
THIS UNFAVORABLE UPPER CONSTRAINT AND THE LACK OF OCEANIC CONTENT,
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF 20S. FROM MONDAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD CURVE
SOUTHEASTWARD AND FILL UP GRADUALLY.=
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#15 Postby supercane » Fri Dec 11, 2015 5:10 pm

WTIO30 FMEE 111818

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/2/20152016
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 (EX-BOHALE)

2.A POSITION 2015/12/11 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.3 S / 67.7 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SEVEN
DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/S 0.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 999 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :83 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 190 SW: 190 NW: 0




7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/12/12 06 UTC: 18.9 S / 67.0 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
24H: 2015/12/12 18 UTC: 20.6 S / 66.2 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
36H: 2015/12/13 06 UTC: 22.8 S / 65.2 E, MAX WIND=025 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2015/12/13 18 UTC: 25.0 S / 64.2 E, MAX WIND=025 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2015/12/14 06 UTC: 26.6 S / 63.7 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, LOW
72H: 2015/12/14 18 UTC: 27.5 S / 64.2 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2015/12/15 18 UTC: 28.9 S / 66.4 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, REMNANT LOW


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=CI=2.5-

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE SYSTEM CLOUD PATTERN FLUCTUATED. A
CURVED BAND HAS FORMED IN THE SOUTHERN SECTOR.
THE LAST ANIMATED WATER VAPOR PICTURES SUGGEST STRENGTHENING UPPER
LEVEL WINDS, WITH AN ARC OF CIRRUS IN THE NORTHWESTERN SECTOR OF THE
SYSTEM.
THE POLAR OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD.
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY REVEALS THE ADVECTION OF DRY AIR AROUND
THE SYSTEM.

THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE 14:09Z MW SSMIS PICTURE.
EX-BOHALE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WESTSOUTHWEST TO SOUTHWESTWARD,
STEERED BY A MID LEVELS RIDGE IN THE EAST AND A GEOPOTENTIAL WEAKNESS
IN THE SOUTH. AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A
SOUTH-WEST TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TRACK UP TO SUNDAY.

ON THIS PATH, THE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDSHEAR IS FORECAST TO
INCREASE GRADUALLY AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH . THUS, THE SYSTEM
SHOULD WEAKEN UNDER THIS UNFAVORABLE UPPER CONSTRAINT AND THE LACK OF
OCEANIC CONTENT, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF 20S.
FROM MONDAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD CURVE SOUTHEASTWARD AND FILL UP
RAPIDLY.=

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WTXS31 PGTW 112100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BOHALE) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BOHALE) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z --- NEAR 17.6S 68.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6S 68.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 18.7S 67.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 20.0S 65.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 21.9S 64.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 24.2S 63.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
112100Z POSITION NEAR 17.9S 67.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BOHALE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 637 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH A DIMINISHING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
THAT THE SYSTEM IS CONNECTED TO A DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE
SOUTHEAST PROVIDING AN ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) HAS STARTED TO INCREASE WHICH IS PUSHING THE DEEP
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. THE CURRENT POSITION IS
BASED ON THE LLCC IN THE IR LOOP AND IS SUPPORTED BY AN 111704Z
METOP-B MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING A WELL-DEFINED LLCC. THE INTENSITY
HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 35 KNOTS BASED ON THE DIMINISHING CONVECTION AND
DECREASING DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES. TC BOHALE
IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. THIS STR WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
STEERING MECHANISM THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS THE CYCLONE
TRACKS FURTHER POLEWARD SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL RAPIDLY
DECREASE. IN ADDITION, VWS WILL INCREASE AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THESE FACTORS WILL LEAD TO THE COMPLETE
DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD OR
POSSIBLY SOONER. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT ON THE
OVERALL SCENARIO; HOWEVER, THERE ARE VARYING DEGREES WITH THE
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. DUE TO THIS SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z AND 122100Z.//
NNNN
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#16 Postby supercane » Sat Dec 12, 2015 1:16 am

WTIO30 FMEE 120026

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/2/20152016
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 (EX-BOHALE)

2.A POSITION 2015/12/12 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.1 S / 67.5 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL
FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/S 0.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 999 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :65 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 190 SW: 190 NW: 0




7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/12/12 12 UTC: 19.2 S / 66.7 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
24H: 2015/12/13 00 UTC: 21.1 S / 65.5 E, MAX WIND=025 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2015/12/13 12 UTC: 23.5 S / 64.2 E, MAX WIND=025 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2015/12/14 00 UTC: 25.3 S / 63.0 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW
60H: 2015/12/14 12 UTC: 26.6 S / 62.5 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW
72H: 2015/12/15 00 UTC: 27.9 S / 62.1 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2015/12/16 00 UTC: 30.7 S / 63.8 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, DISSIPATING


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=CI=2.5-

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE SYSTEM HAS AGAIN ADOPTED A CDO PATTERN,
AND THE CLOUD TOPS TEMPERATURE COOLING DOWN .
THE LLCC SEEMS TO LIE AGAIN UNDER THE DENSE OVERCAST.
THE MICRO-WAVE IMAGERY (SSMIS 21.45Z) DEPICTS A SHORT CONVECTIVE BAND
IN THE SOUTHERN SECTOR.
THE POLAR OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD.

THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD, STEERED BY A MID
LEVELS RIDGE IN THE EAST AND A GEOPOTENTIAL WEAKNESS IN THE SOUTH.
AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ARE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A SOUTH-WEST TO
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TRACK UP TO SUNDAY, ACCELERATING GRADUALLY.

ON THIS PATH, THE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDSHEAR IS FORECAST TO
INCREASE GRADUALLY AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH . THUS, THE SYSTEM
SHOULD WEAKEN UNDER THIS UNFAVORABLE UPPER CONSTRAINT AND THE LACK OF
OCEANIC CONTENT, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF 20S.
FROM THE BEGINING OF THE NEXT WEEK, THE SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND
CURVE SOUTHEASTWARD AND DISSIPATE RAPIDLY.=
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#17 Postby supercane » Sat Dec 12, 2015 1:41 am

WTIO30 FMEE 120624

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 14/2/20152016
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 (EX-BOHALE)

2.A POSITION 2015/12/12 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.6 S / 67.9 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL
NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/S 0.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :65 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 260 SW: 190 NW: 0




7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/12/12 18 UTC: 20.8 S / 67.0 E, MAX WIND=030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H: 2015/12/13 06 UTC: 22.4 S / 65.7 E, MAX WIND=030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2015/12/13 18 UTC: 24.4 S / 64.4 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW
48H: 2015/12/14 06 UTC: 25.7 S / 63.6 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW
60H: 2015/12/14 18 UTC: 26.5 S / 63.3 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW
72H: 2015/12/15 06 UTC: 27.4 S / 63.4 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, DISSIPATING

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=CI=2.5-

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CDO PATTERN APPEARED LAST NIGHT, STARTED
TO WARM AND TO HAVE A LESS STRUCTURED ORGANIZATION. DEEP CONVECTION
SEEMS TO RESIST MORE IN THE SOUTHER PARTS, THANKS TO THE GOOD POLAR
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. THE 0459Z ASCAT SWATH SHOWS THAT THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED IN THE SOUTH-EAST SEMI-CIRCLE, IN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT.

THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD, STEERED BY A
MID LEVELS RIDGE IN THE EAST AND A GEOPOTENTIAL WEAKNESS IN THE
SOUTH.
AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ARE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A QUITE RAPID
SOUTH-WEST TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TRACK UP TO SUNDAY.

ON THIS PATH, THE NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDSHEAR IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE GRADUALLY BACKING NORTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH . THUS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN UNDER THIS
UNFAVORABLE UPPER CONSTRAINT AND THE LACK OF OCEANIC CONTENT,
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF 20S.
FROM THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WEEK, THE SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND
CURVE SOUTHEASTWARD AND DISSIPATE RAPIDLY.=
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#18 Postby supercane » Sat Dec 12, 2015 10:16 am

WTXS31 PGTW 120900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BOHALE) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BOHALE) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z --- NEAR 18.9S 67.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9S 67.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 20.6S 67.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
120900Z POSITION NEAR 19.3S 67.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BOHALE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 592 NM EAST OF
PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS SIGNIFICANTLY ERODED AND SHEARED
SOUTHEASTWARD OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS DRIFTED INTO AN AREA OF STRONG
(30-40 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. TC BOHALE IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER DETERIORATE AS ADVERSE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS PERSIST. THE CYCLONE WILL BE REDUCED TO
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INTENSITY BY TAU 12. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON
THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 12 FEET.//
NNNN

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WTIO30 FMEE 121218

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 15/2/20152016
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 (EX-BOHALE)

2.A POSITION 2015/12/12 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.7 S / 67.6 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL
SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.5/W 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :65 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 260 SW: 190 NW: 0




7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/12/13 00 UTC: 21.5 S / 66.8 E, MAX WIND=030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H: 2015/12/13 12 UTC: 23.4 S / 65.4 E, MAX WIND=025 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2015/12/14 00 UTC: 25.2 S / 64.3 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW
48H: 2015/12/14 12 UTC: 26.6 S / 64.1 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW
60H: 2015/12/15 00 UTC: 27.8 S / 64.4 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, DISSIPATING
72H: 2015/12/15 12 UTC: 28.9 S / 65.1 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, DISSIPATING

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=2.0+ CI=2.5-

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE SYSTEM STARTED TO UNDERGO THE
NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR. THE LLCC IS PARTIALLY VISIBLE UNDER THE
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. MSLP WAS ADJUSTED WITH THE 14553 BUOY DATA AT 10Z
(997.6 HPA CORRECTED).

THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD, STEERED BY A
MID LEVELS RIDGE IN THE EAST AND A GEOPOTENTIAL WEAKNESS IN THE
SOUTH.
AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ARE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A QUITE RAPID
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TRACK UP TO SUNDAY.

ON THIS PATH, THE NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDSHEAR IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE GRADUALLY BACKING NORTHWESTERLY
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH . THUS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN UNDER
THIS UNFAVORABLE UPPER CONSTRAINT AND THE LACK OF OCEANIC CONTENT.
FROM THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WEEK, THE SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND
CURVE SOUTHEASTWARD AND DISSIPATE RAPIDLY.=
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supercane
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#19 Postby supercane » Sat Dec 12, 2015 8:17 pm

WTIO30 FMEE 130037

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 17/2/20152016
1.A POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 (EX-BOHALE)

2.A POSITION 2015/12/13 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.0 S / 67.4 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SEVEN
DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 330 SE: 430 SW: 280 NW: 0




7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/12/13 12 UTC: 23.2 S / 65.7 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H: 2015/12/14 00 UTC: 25.0 S / 64.1 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2015/12/14 12 UTC: 25.8 S / 63.2 E, MAX WIND=030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2015/12/15 00 UTC: 26.6 S / 62.7 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW
60H: 2015/12/15 12 UTC: 28.1 S / 62.8 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW


2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
THE SYSTEM IS NOW CLASSIFIED AS POST-TROPICAL BASED ON PHASE DIAGRAM
ANALYSIS DERIVED FROM AMSU DATA ALONG WITH GFS PHASE ANALYSIS FROM
18Z CORROBORATED THE WINDFIELD DEFORMATION NOTED PREVIOUSLY WITH THE
ASCAT DATA. AS THE SYSTEM IS NOW OVER SST NEAR OR BELOW 26C AND
WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT, PARTIAL RAPID SCAT DATA
OF 2156Z STILL SUGGEST SOME 30-35 KT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE ... SO THE INTENSITY REMAINS UNCHANGED.

THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD SOMEWHAT SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED, STEERED BY A MID LEVELS RIDGE IN THE EAST
AND A GEOPOTENTIAL WEAKNESS IN THE SOUTH.
AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ARE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A QUITE RAPID
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TRACK UP TO SUNDAY.

ON THIS PATH, THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BECOME
INCREASINGLY BAROCLINE AND WV IMAGERY DEPICT AN INTERACTION WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED TO THE WEST NEAR 60E . GFS AND THE EURO
SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM COULD MAINTAIN RATHER STRONG WINDS TODAY (NOW
REFLECTED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST) BEFORE WEAKENING MONDAY AND BEYOND
WITHIN A MORE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.=
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