WPAC: 29W - Post-Tropical

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 113668
Age: 62
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

WPAC: 29W - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby cycloneye » Sat Dec 12, 2015 6:58 pm

97W INVEST 151212 1800 3.6N 147.8E WPAC 15 1010

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

dexterlabio
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2821
Joined: Sat Oct 24, 2009 11:50 pm

#2 Postby dexterlabio » Sat Dec 12, 2015 8:48 pm

Models, specifically the GFS, are showing a possible interaction with Melor. While the intensity forecasts are not high, looking back three or four days ago the models were only showing Melor to reach at most weak TS strength, so I wouldn't be surprised if this surpasses the current intensity forecasts as well..
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

supercane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2855
Joined: Wed Sep 16, 2009 8:27 pm

#3 Postby supercane » Sat Dec 12, 2015 11:12 pm

From NWS Guam's 03Z Satellite Interpretation Message:
A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS CENTERED SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK NEAR 3N149E.
FRESH TRADE WINDS CONVERGING TOWARD THE DISTURBANCE ARE CAUSING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF EASTERN YAP
STATE AND WESTERN CHUUK STATE WITHIN 140 MILES OF A LINE FROM
5N144E TO 3N149E TO EQ153E.
0 likes   

User avatar
1900hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4044
Age: 27
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
Location: College Station, TX
Contact:

#4 Postby 1900hurricane » Sat Dec 12, 2015 11:53 pm

The circulation might actually be trying to close off. It's quite equatorial though. I'd also like to see what the east side of the forming circulation looks like (both ASCAT passes sampled about the same location).

Image

Image
0 likes   
Wayward meteorology student on a journey back to the promised land.

Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 15197
Age: 31
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W

#5 Postby euro6208 » Sun Dec 13, 2015 5:00 am

About time it became an invest...
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 15197
Age: 31
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re:

#6 Postby euro6208 » Sun Dec 13, 2015 5:03 am

dexterlabio wrote:Models, specifically the GFS, are showing a possible interaction with Melor. While the intensity forecasts are not high, looking back three or four days ago the models were only showing Melor to reach at most weak TS strength, so I wouldn't be surprised if this surpasses the current intensity forecasts as well..


Not just GFS but every model has been showing an interaction with Melor over the past few days as per the WPAC Thread...
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 15197
Age: 31
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W

#7 Postby euro6208 » Sun Dec 13, 2015 6:03 am

NAVGEM, JMA doesn't develop this.

CMC develops this for a while into a TS before striking the area of Palau and Yap.

EURO and GFS the same develops into a TS before weakening as it reaches the Yap and Palau area with little to no strengthening after...
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

supercane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2855
Joined: Wed Sep 16, 2009 8:27 pm

#8 Postby supercane » Sun Dec 13, 2015 9:21 am

JMA puts this on the map as a LPA at 06Z.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 02N 147E ALMOST STATIONARY.
0 likes   

User avatar
1900hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4044
Age: 27
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
Location: College Station, TX
Contact:

#9 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Dec 13, 2015 5:56 pm

It's largely exposed, but visible shows a clear (albeit sloppy) surface circulation.

Image
0 likes   
Wayward meteorology student on a journey back to the promised land.

Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 15197
Age: 31
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W

#10 Postby euro6208 » Mon Dec 14, 2015 3:35 am

JTWC gives this a MEDIUM.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 3.7N
145.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 3.7N 145.9E, APPROXIMATELY 565NM
SOUTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS
REVEALED A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION BEING SHEARED TO THE WEST. THE EASTERLY
VERTICAL SHEAR IS CURRENTLY HINDERING DEVELOPMENT OF THE LLCC,
HOWEVER, UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
NEAR 29 DEGREES CELSIUS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. NVGM
MAINTAINS A WEAK LLCC OVER THE NEXT 4-5 DAYS. GFS SOLUTION IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE, DEVELOPING A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 1-2 DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 15197
Age: 31
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W

#11 Postby euro6208 » Mon Dec 14, 2015 3:36 am

TXPQ22 KNES 140258
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (97W)

B. 14/0230Z

C. 4.2N

D. 145.4E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.0/1.0/D0.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...CIRCULARLY DEFINED CLOUD LINES LESS THAN 75NM FROM SMALL
COLD OVERCAST YIELDS SHEAR MATRIX DT=1.5. MET AND PT=1.0. FT IS BASED
ON CONSTRAINT OF INITIAL CLASSIFICATION BEING T1.0.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SALEMI
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 15197
Age: 31
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W

#12 Postby euro6208 » Mon Dec 14, 2015 3:44 am

Getting that look...

Image
Last edited by euro6208 on Mon Dec 14, 2015 7:02 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

supercane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2855
Joined: Wed Sep 16, 2009 8:27 pm

#13 Postby supercane » Mon Dec 14, 2015 10:14 am

JMA lists this as a non-warning TD at 12Z:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 05N 145E NW SLOWLY.

Description from earlier JTWC Significant Tropical Weather Advisory:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 3.7N
145.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 3.7N 145.9E, APPROXIMATELY 565NM
SOUTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS
REVEALED A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION BEING SHEARED TO THE WEST. THE EASTERLY
VERTICAL SHEAR IS CURRENTLY HINDERING DEVELOPMENT OF THE LLCC,
HOWEVER, UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
NEAR 29 DEGREES CELSIUS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. NVGM
MAINTAINS A WEAK LLCC OVER THE NEXT 4-5 DAYS. GFS SOLUTION IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE, DEVELOPING A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 1-2 DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
0 likes   

User avatar
1900hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4044
Age: 27
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
Location: College Station, TX
Contact:

#14 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Dec 14, 2015 1:08 pm

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert now up.
0 likes   
Wayward meteorology student on a journey back to the promised land.

Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 15197
Age: 31
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W

#15 Postby euro6208 » Mon Dec 14, 2015 4:13 pm

Image

WTPN21 PGTW 141730
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 4.9N 144.8E TO 6.5N 137.6E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 141200Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 5.1N 144.6E. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.4N
145.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.1N 144.6E, APPROXIMATELY 465 NM
SOUTHEAST OF YAP. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
141150Z MHS 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION BEGINNING TO BUILD AND
CONSOLIDATE DIRECTLY OVER THE SYSTEM. RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA ALSO
INDICATES THE LLCC IS GETTING MORE DEFINED WITH 25 KNOT RAIN FLAGGED
WINDS NEAR THE CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. DUE TO INCREASED
CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC AND THE MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM INTO A MORE
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
151730Z.//
NNNN
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 15197
Age: 31
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: WPAC: INVEST 97W

#16 Postby euro6208 » Mon Dec 14, 2015 4:14 pm

TXPQ22 KNES 141616
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (97W)

B. 14/1430Z

C. 5.1N

D. 144.4E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM REMAINS SHEARED AND DEFINED BY CIRCULARLY DEFINED
CLOUD LINES WITH LLCC LESS THAN 75NM FROM COLD OVERCAST WHICH IS LESS
THAN 90NM IN DIAMETER FOR DT=1.5. MET=1.5 BASED ON 24 HOUR DEVELOPING
TREND. PT=1.5. FT IS BASED ON MET.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...RUMINSKI

TPPN11 PGTW 141830

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 97W (SW OF CHUUK)

B. 14/1800Z

C. 5.45N

D. 143.74E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T1.5/1.5 STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .30 ON LOG10
SPIRAL, YIELDING A DT OF 1.5. MET AND PT ARE UNAVAILABLE. DBO
DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


CHAPPOTIN
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

supercane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2855
Joined: Wed Sep 16, 2009 8:27 pm

#17 Postby supercane » Mon Dec 14, 2015 8:43 pm

WTPQ21 RJTD 150000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 150000UTC 05.6N 142.5E FAIR
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 160000UTC 06.2N 139.2E 120NM 70%
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =
0 likes   

dexterlabio
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2821
Joined: Sat Oct 24, 2009 11:50 pm

#18 Postby dexterlabio » Mon Dec 14, 2015 10:23 pm

When was the last time we had two named tropical cyclones in December? I remember 1997 and 2004 only had one with Paka and Nanmadol, respectively.


EDIT: Just to answer my own question, last year also had two named December TC's with Hagupit and Jangmi. What a short memory span I have. :roll: But I believe two named TC's in December is quite rare, isn't it?
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

supercane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2855
Joined: Wed Sep 16, 2009 8:27 pm

#19 Postby supercane » Mon Dec 14, 2015 11:38 pm

Earlier Special Weather Statement from NWS Guam:

000
WWPQ80 PGUM 142343
SPSPQ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1000 AM CHST TUE DEC 15 2015

PMZ161-171-160000-
KOROR PALAU-YAP-
1000 AM CHST TUE DEC 15 2015

...DEVELOPING CIRCULATION TO PASS NEAR KOROR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

AT 730 AM...A DEVELOPING TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WAS CENTERED NEAR
6N143E. THIS IS ABOUT 415 MILES SOUTHEAST OF YAP ISLAND AND 595
MILES EAST OF KOROR. THIS SYSTEM...NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER...IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS IT SLOWLY DEVELOPS THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE DISTURBANCE WILL PASS CLOSE TO KOROR WEDNESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS HEAVY SHOWERS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND
GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN YAP STATE AND PALAU INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE AREA. SATELLITE DATA SHOW THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
FOUND TO THE NORTH OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH IN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AT YAP BEGINNING
THIS EVENING...WITH WINDS INCREASING AT KOROR ON WEDNESDAY. THESE
WINDS WILL CREATE ROUGH SEA CONDITIONS AND INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL BY
BOAT SHOULD BE POSTPONED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

RESIDENTS OF WESTERN YAP STATE AND THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU SHOULD
MONITOR THIS SITUATION AND PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE LATEST
STATEMENTS AND FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...
YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCIES.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL UPDATE THIS SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT WHEN NECESSARY. THE LATEST YAP AND KOROR COASTAL WATERS
FORECAST CAN BE FOUND UNDER WMO HEADER FZPQ52 PGUM.

$$

AYDLETT
0 likes   

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 15197
Age: 31
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 97W

#20 Postby euro6208 » Tue Dec 15, 2015 5:40 am

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 3.7N
145.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.7N 140.9E, APPROXIMATELY 283 NM
SOUTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
HIGH LEVELS OF EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) HAS LED TO A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED, ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE CIRCULATION. THE
EASTERLY VWS IS CURRENTLY HINDERING DEVELOPMENT OF THE LLCC,
HOWEVER, UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
NEAR 29 DEGREES CELSIUS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. NVGM
MAINTAINS A WEAK LLCC OVER THE NEXT 4-5 DAYS. GFS SOLUTION IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE, DEVELOPING A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 1-2 DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/


Return to “2015”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest