WPAC: 29W - Post-Tropical

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wxman57
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 29W

#41 Postby wxman57 » Wed Dec 16, 2015 3:54 pm

This system is definitely more impressive than Melor, but Melor lacks any circulation center or any convection where the LLC dissipated. This disturbance does appear to have a very weak and disorganized low-level circulation. I don't think it qualifies for TD status.
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#42 Postby supercane » Wed Dec 16, 2015 6:00 pm

Latest JMA and first JTWC advisories on this TD:
WTPQ21 RJTD 162100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 162100UTC 08.7N 132.5E FAIR
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 172100UTC 08.2N 129.2E 120NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

WTPN52 PGTW 162100
WARNING ATCG MIL 29W NWP 151216193049
2015121618 29W TWENTYNINE 001 02 290 14 SATL 045
T000 082N 1323E 025
T012 082N 1306E 030
T024 080N 1289E 030
T036 076N 1272E 025
T048 070N 1251E 020
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 29W (TWENTYNINE) WARNING NR 001
<rest omitted>

WDPN32 PGTW 162100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 29W (TWENTYNINE)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 29W (TWENTYNINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
136 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF KOROR, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS BUILDING CONVECTION OVER A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 161250Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS AN
IMPROVED LLCC WITH THE BULK OF CONVECTION SHEARED JUST TO THE
NORTHWEST. A 161341Z RAPIDSCAT PASS SHOWED MAINLY 15 TO 20 KNOT
WINDS NEAR THE CENTER WITH STRONGER 25 KNOT WINDS TO THE NORTH. THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC IN THE ABOVE
IMAGERY WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON T1.5
(25 KNOTS) FROM ALL AGENCIES AND IS SUPPORTED BY THE RECENT
SCATTEROMETER PASSES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE ENVIRONMENT
IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH IMPROVING DIVERGENT
OUTFLOW BEING OFFSET BY MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LLCC. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. TD 29W IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY.
B. TD 29W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING TO THE WEST OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS PRIOR TO TURNING SOUTH AS THE NORTHEASTERLY SURGE EVENT MOVES
OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE PHILIPPINE SEA. MODERATELY FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION BEFORE INCREASED
VWS DUE TO THE COLD SURGE EVENT WEAKENS THE SYSTEM. TD 29W WILL MAKE
LANDFALL OVER CENTRAL MINDANAO JUST BEFORE IT DISSIPATES. LIMITED
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, SUPPORTING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST WHICH IS LAID CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: 29W-Tropical Depression

#43 Postby euro6208 » Thu Dec 17, 2015 4:49 am

Image

WDPN32 PGTW 170900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 29W (TWENTYNINE)
WARNING NR 03//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 29W (TWENTYNINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
567 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF ZAMBOANGA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A FULLY EXPOSED BUT WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION BEING SHEARED
WESTWARD OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EXPOSED
LLCC IN THE MSI LOOP WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
25 KNOTS IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15 TO
20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, A DIVERGENT POLEWARD
OUTFLOW IS HELPING VENTILATE THE WAYWARD CONVECTION. ALONG-TRACK SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) AT 28 CELSIUS ARE ALSO CONDUCIVE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 29W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGHOUT ITS
SHORT LIFESPAN. THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SSTS WILL MARGINALLY
OFFSET THE MODERATE VWS AND ALLOW SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION BEFORE THE
SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL AND DISSIPATE OVER MINDANAO BY TAU 36. MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST WHICH IS LAID CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN
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supercane
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#44 Postby supercane » Thu Dec 17, 2015 9:39 am

JMA at 06Z back to a non-warning TD. 12Z update:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 09N 130E WEST 10 KT.

JTWC 15Z advisory also keeps system below TS strength:
WTPN52 PGTW 171500
WARNING ATCG MIL 29W NWP 151217123703
2015121712 29W TWENTYNINE 004 02 280 05 SATL 020
T000 084N 1309E 025
T012 082N 1291E 030
T024 078N 1271E 030
T036 073N 1253E 020
AMP
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 29W (TWENTYNINE) WARNING NR 004
<rest omitted>

WDPN32 PGTW 171500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 29W (TWENTYNINE)
WARNING NR 04//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 29W (TWENTYNINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
527 NM EAST OF ZAMBOANGA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS FLARED BUT REMAINS
SHEARED FROM THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT HAS BECOME
DIFFICULT TO DISCERN. THE INITIAL POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM A
RAGGED LLCC FEATURE ON A 170933Z SSMI-S MICROWAVE PASS WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL
ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15 TO 20
KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, A DIVERGENT
POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS HELPING VENTILATE THE WAYWARD CONVECTION.
ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) AT 28 CELSIUS ARE ALSO
CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 29W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGHOUT ITS
SHORT LIFESPAN. THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SSTS WILL SLIGHTLY
OFFSET THE VWS AND ALLOW SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION BEFORE THE SYSTEM
MAKES LANDFALL AND DISSIPATE OVER MINDANAO BY TAU 36. MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST WHICH IS LAID CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: 29W-Post-Tropical

#45 Postby cycloneye » Thu Dec 17, 2015 9:18 pm

Final warning.

WTPN32 PGTW 180300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 29W (TWENTYNINE) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180000Z --- NEAR 7.6N 129.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 7.6N 129.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 7.0N 127.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 6.3N 124.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
180300Z POSITION NEAR 7.5N 128.5E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 29W (TWENTYNINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 415
NM EAST OF ZAMBOANGA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DECREASED CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE
WEST DUE TO PERSISTENT EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE CLOUD LINES
COMPOSING THE LLCC ARE LESS ORGANIZED AND APPEAR TO BE UNRAVELLING.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL HAS
WEAKENED, CONTRIBUTING TO THE WANING CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD TOWARDS MINDANAO WITH AN
EQUATORWARD BIAS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST. THIS IS THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI.
THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z IS 8 FEET.//
NNNN
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