WPAC: MERANTI - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: MERANTI - Post-Tropical

#261 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Jun 16, 2017 4:15 pm

euro6208 wrote:
Imran_doomhaMwx wrote:JTWC 2016 Best Tracks are now out... https://metoc.ndbc.noaa.gov/web/guest/j ... rn-pacific

170kts (315kph) max 1-min sustained winds for STY Meranti :eek:



Another typhoon ands tied with Haiyan? :lol:

Without no recon, the limit for the world's most powerful basin's TC's is 165 to 175 knots. Anything above will most likely be tossed out.


Unlike with Haiyan (which I am guessing was higher still), 170 kt seems accurate for Meranti. However, without Recon we will never know.
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Re: WPAC: MERANTI - Post-Tropical

#262 Postby 1900hurricane » Fri Jun 16, 2017 11:17 pm

I'm surprised to see JTWC bump up to 170 kt in the final best track. I can't imagine that they aren't going to have a section dedicated to Meranti in the 2016 Annual Tropical Cyclone Report once it is released, and I look forward to reading it and getting inside their head for this one.
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Re: WPAC: MERANTI - Post-Tropical

#263 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Jun 17, 2017 11:48 pm

1900hurricane wrote:I'm surprised to see JTWC bump up to 170 kt in the final best track. I can't imagine that they aren't going to have a section dedicated to Meranti in the 2016 Annual Tropical Cyclone Report once it is released, and I look forward to reading it and getting inside their head for this one.


It seems it peaked right as it went over that tiny island, which reading back recorded a pressure of 883mb with moderate winds. The minimum pressure was likely 879mb in actual fact.
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Re: WPAC: MERANTI - Post-Tropical

#264 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Tue Jun 20, 2017 9:17 am

CrazyC83 wrote: It seems it peaked right as it went over that tiny island, which reading back recorded a pressure of 883mb with moderate winds. The minimum pressure was likely 879mb in actual fact.


So that 983mb pressure, about an hour after the recorded 933mb, is actually 883mb?
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Re: WPAC: MERANTI - Post-Tropical

#265 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Jun 20, 2017 8:07 pm

Imran_doomhaMwx wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote: It seems it peaked right as it went over that tiny island, which reading back recorded a pressure of 883mb with moderate winds. The minimum pressure was likely 879mb in actual fact.


So that 983mb pressure, about an hour after the recorded 933mb, is actually 883mb?


That's what I suspect.
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Re: WPAC: MERANTI - Post-Tropical

#266 Postby NotoSans » Tue Jun 20, 2017 8:26 pm

http://typhooncommittee.org/docs/Passag ... ppines.pdf
The observed MSLP stated in the official tropical cyclone passage report is 933.6 mb. Unfortunately the weather station failed to function later on and we didn't have a complete observation.
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Re: WPAC: MERANTI - Post-Tropical

#267 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Jun 21, 2017 1:40 pm

NotoSans wrote:http://typhooncommittee.org/docs/Passage%20Reports/2016/1614-MERANTE-Philippines.pdf
The observed MSLP stated in the official tropical cyclone passage report is 933.6 mb. Unfortunately the weather station failed to function later on and we didn't have a complete observation.

Yep, any other observations after that are junk unfortunately. It's pretty clear though that the 933.6 mb pressure was not the lowest that occurred on the island. The station was still reporting strong winds at the time. On a glance, it appears the island was beginning to break out into the eye, since it was within the off-white color shade on BD IR imagery, but a cross-reference with the radar imagery at the time reveals that the OW eye ring is where the strongest eyewall radar echoes resided. Itbayat was probably very near the strongest pressure gradient at the time, and likely the most severe conditions.

Image

Image
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Re: WPAC: MERANTI - Post-Tropical

#268 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Wed Jul 19, 2017 3:15 am

1900hurricane wrote:I'm surprised to see JTWC bump up to 170 kt in the final best track. I can't imagine that they aren't going to have a section dedicated to Meranti in the 2016 Annual Tropical Cyclone Report once it is released, and I look forward to reading it and getting inside their head for this one.

2016 ATCR is out... Unfortunately, no detailed review for Meranti, nor any other WPac systems...
Anyways, they did a detailed review on two SHem cyclones -- Ula and Winston... Very interesting/informative as always :D
https://metoc.ndbc.noaa.gov/ProductFeed ... 16atcr.pdf
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Re: WPAC: MERANTI - Post-Tropical

#269 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Jan 01, 2018 8:30 am

I ran KZC to solve for pressure with Meranti's best track file, and the pressures spit out near peak intensity are around 10 mb lower than those given by JTWC.

System: MERANTI (16W)
Date & Time Lat/Lon Vmax Speed Mean Presssure OCI
(kt) (kt) R34 exp (act)
9/ 8/2016 18Z: 13.2N 143.8W 20, 5, 0, 1006 (1005), 1006
9/ 9/2016 0Z: 13.6N 143.2W 25, 7, 0, 1005 (1004), 1006
9/ 9/2016 6Z: 14.3N 142.5W 25, 10, 0, 1005 (1004), 1006
9/ 9/2016 12Z: 14.6N 141.7W 25, 8, 0, 1005 (1004), 1006
9/ 9/2016 18Z: 14.7N 141.0W 30, 7, 0, 1003 (1001), 1006
9/10/2016 0Z: 14.8N 139.7W 35, 13, 50, 1002 (1000), 1006
9/10/2016 6Z: 15.0N 138.6W 40, 11, 55, 1001 ( 993), 1008
9/10/2016 12Z: 15.3N 137.6W 45, 10, 58, 996 ( 989), 1006
9/10/2016 18Z: 15.8N 136.9W 50, 8, 75, 994 ( 995), 1006
9/11/2016 0Z: 16.5N 135.8W 60, 13, 85, 989 ( 989), 1006
9/11/2016 6Z: 16.8N 134.5W 75, 13, 95, 981 ( 967), 1007
9/11/2016 12Z: 17.2N 133.0W 85, 15, 105, 972 ( 959), 1005
9/11/2016 18Z: 17.6N 131.7W 100, 13, 108, 957 ( 960), 1005
9/12/2016 0Z: 17.9N 130.3W 120, 14, 118, 939 ( 933), 1005
9/12/2016 6Z: 18.4N 129.3W 135, 11, 118, 926 ( 922), 1007
9/12/2016 12Z: 18.9N 128.1W 155, 12, 125, 906 ( 907), 1007
9/12/2016 18Z: 19.3N 126.7W 155, 14, 135, 905 ( 904), 1007
9/13/2016 0Z: 19.6N 125.5W 160, 12, 150, 898 ( 903), 1007
9/13/2016 6Z: 20.2N 124.1W 165, 14, 170, 891 ( 899), 1007
9/13/2016 12Z: 20.4N 122.9W 170, 11, 175, 884 ( 895), 1007
9/13/2016 18Z: 20.8N 121.8W 165, 11, 182, 886 ( 899), 1005
9/14/2016 0Z: 21.5N 120.8W 155, 12, 185, 899 ( 900), 1006
9/14/2016 6Z: 22.6N 119.8W 125, 14, 185, 930 ( 929), 1006
9/14/2016 12Z: 23.4N 119.0W 110, 11, 160, 944 ( 941), 1006
9/14/2016 18Z: 24.4N 118.4W 85, 11, 150, 964 ( 959), 1006
9/15/2016 0Z: 25.3N 117.6W 70, 12, 120, 974 ( 970), 1003
9/15/2016 6Z: 26.5N 116.9W 40, 14, 120, 992 ( 993), 1003
9/15/2016 12Z: 28.1N 117.1W 20, 16, 0, 1006 (1004), 1006


Of course, the actual pressures won't ever be known, but I thought it was interesting to see how far JTWC departed from them while Meranti was the most intense.
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