ATL: EIGHT - Remnants - Discussion

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Re: ATL: EIGHT - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#101 Postby wxman57 » Sun Aug 28, 2016 10:52 am

tolakram wrote:One of the less than 5 days warning storms I'm worried about. Seems like the models can't really handle the in close development very well.


I think the models handled it very well. It was quite clearly a depression yesterday, though no advisories were started then, probably because the NHC thought that wind shear would get the best of it. The 12Z Friday GFS had the low approaching the NC coast Tue/Wed. It's no surprise that it developed.
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Re: ATL: EIGHT - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#102 Postby GlennOBX » Sun Aug 28, 2016 11:19 am

This will be the first tropical system to affect my area since I bought a home weather station about a year ago. The station's internet connection doesn't work anymore, so I'm unable to upload conditions, but it will still be interesting.
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Re: ATL: EIGHT - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#103 Postby tropicwatch » Sun Aug 28, 2016 11:20 am

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Re: ATL: EIGHT - Recon

#104 Postby galaxy401 » Sun Aug 28, 2016 12:17 pm

Any update where the recon is currently at?
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Re: ATL: EIGHT - Recon

#105 Postby tolakram » Sun Aug 28, 2016 12:19 pm

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Re: ATL: EIGHT - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#106 Postby northjaxpro » Sun Aug 28, 2016 12:29 pm



Yes indeed. This happened rapidly just in the past 12 hours.
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Re: ATL: EIGHT - Recon

#107 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Aug 28, 2016 12:29 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 281727
AF303 0108A CYCLONE HDOB 19 20160828
171730 3318N 07305W 8424 01649 0188 +169 +073 057013 014 029 002 00
171800 3318N 07303W 8670 01402 0188 +182 +071 043013 014 030 001 00
171830 3318N 07301W 8898 01183 0191 +194 +073 053017 017 030 001 00
171900 3318N 07300W 9133 00956 0195 +197 +076 059017 018 027 001 00
171930 3318N 07258W 9244 00843 0185 +201 +081 064019 019 028 000 00
172000 3318N 07256W 9245 00839 0183 +202 +086 065018 019 027 001 00
172030 3318N 07254W 9246 00843 0188 +201 +090 064019 019 026 000 00
172100 3318N 07252W 9249 00840 0188 +203 +094 063019 020 027 000 00
172130 3318N 07250W 9248 00842 0188 +200 +096 061020 021 026 001 00
172200 3318N 07248W 9248 00842 0188 +201 +099 060020 020 026 000 00
172230 3318N 07246W 9250 00842 0190 +200 +100 056020 020 026 000 00
172300 3319N 07245W 9250 00836 0186 +200 +101 059020 020 026 000 00
172330 3319N 07243W 9249 00839 0187 +202 +101 059021 022 027 001 00
172400 3319N 07241W 9250 00838 0186 +203 +101 059021 021 028 000 00
172430 3319N 07239W 9249 00839 0185 +205 +101 064021 021 027 000 00
172500 3319N 07238W 9249 00839 0184 +205 +102 064021 021 026 000 00
172530 3319N 07236W 9250 00838 0184 +206 +103 064020 020 027 000 00
172600 3319N 07234W 9252 00834 0182 +207 +104 062021 022 025 000 00
172630 3318N 07233W 9250 00839 0184 +206 +105 061022 022 025 000 00
172700 3317N 07232W 9249 00838 0181 +210 +107 059021 021 026 000 00
$$
;

Operational altitude. Pressures in the background are VERY high - nearly 1020mb.
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Re: ATL: EIGHT - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#108 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Aug 28, 2016 12:38 pm

I find remarkable that this system developed despite literally sitting in the middle of a strong ridge. The pressure around the system is in the 1020s. Hence 1013mb or so should be enough for a tropical storm, and 1000mb probably enough for a hurricane.
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Re: ATL: EIGHT - Recon

#109 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Aug 28, 2016 12:39 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 281737
AF303 0108A CYCLONE HDOB 20 20160828
172730 3315N 07230W 9249 00838 0178 +210 +108 058021 021 027 001 00
172800 3314N 07229W 9045 01021 0167 +203 +107 060020 021 027 001 03
172830 3313N 07228W 8736 01314 0159 +188 +106 064018 019 /// /// 03
172900 3312N 07226W 8482 01577 0164 +180 +104 070018 018 025 000 00
172930 3311N 07225W 8446 01617 0167 +179 +100 071018 018 026 000 00
173000 3310N 07223W 8431 01629 0167 +175 +097 069018 018 026 000 00
173030 3309N 07222W 8429 01633 0168 +175 +095 071019 019 025 000 00
173100 3308N 07221W 8429 01631 0169 +175 +093 068019 019 028 000 00
173130 3306N 07219W 8429 01631 0168 +175 +091 068019 020 027 001 00
173200 3305N 07218W 8429 01628 0165 +175 +089 067020 020 028 001 00
173230 3304N 07217W 8429 01629 0163 +179 +087 065020 021 028 001 00
173300 3303N 07215W 8429 01627 0163 +176 +085 066020 021 029 002 00
173330 3302N 07214W 8429 01628 0162 +179 +084 067021 022 030 002 00
173400 3301N 07213W 8430 01626 0159 +180 +083 066022 022 031 001 00
173430 3300N 07211W 8430 01625 0155 +187 +082 069020 021 032 001 00
173500 3259N 07210W 8429 01627 0152 +190 +081 067020 020 032 001 00
173530 3258N 07209W 8428 01628 0152 +190 +081 065020 021 033 002 00
173600 3256N 07207W 8429 01625 0149 +195 +082 061018 021 031 003 00
173630 3255N 07206W 8430 01626 0153 +191 +083 061020 021 029 003 00
173700 3254N 07204W 8430 01623 0150 +194 +083 059019 020 032 002 00
$$
;

33 kt SFMR - just under TS intensity. Flying through at the 850 level.
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Re: ATL: EIGHT - Recon

#110 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Aug 28, 2016 12:55 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 281747
AF303 0108A CYCLONE HDOB 21 20160828
173730 3253N 07203W 8429 01626 0154 +190 +084 059021 022 032 002 00
173800 3252N 07202W 8429 01626 0149 +194 +084 061020 021 033 001 00
173830 3251N 07200W 8432 01625 0149 +195 +085 061019 020 030 002 00
173900 3250N 07159W 8425 01629 0149 +194 +086 059019 020 032 000 00
173930 3249N 07158W 8427 01628 0151 +190 +086 062021 022 031 001 00
174000 3247N 07156W 8426 01627 0145 +196 +087 062021 022 033 000 00
174030 3246N 07155W 8426 01627 0143 +199 +088 065019 021 033 000 00
174100 3245N 07154W 8428 01622 0134 +211 +088 067015 017 033 001 00
174130 3244N 07152W 8434 01617 0131 +216 +091 067013 014 035 000 00
174200 3243N 07151W 8425 01623 0131 +214 +093 062014 016 035 000 00
174230 3242N 07149W 8437 01614 0132 +209 +096 063017 019 034 001 00
174300 3241N 07148W 8428 01622 0130 +214 +098 064016 017 034 000 00
174330 3239N 07147W 8426 01622 0130 +214 +100 062016 016 033 000 00
174400 3238N 07145W 8428 01622 0133 +206 +102 063018 019 033 000 00
174430 3237N 07144W 8429 01621 0136 +203 +104 064019 020 033 000 00
174500 3237N 07144W 8429 01621 0138 +201 +105 069022 023 031 001 00
174530 3235N 07141W 8425 01623 0138 +200 +105 066022 022 031 000 00
174600 3234N 07140W 8429 01620 0138 +199 +105 062021 022 031 000 00
174630 3233N 07139W 8429 01618 0140 +194 +105 062022 023 030 001 00
174700 3232N 07137W 8426 01622 0140 +194 +105 060023 024 031 000 00
$$
;

35 kt SFMR - Hermine?
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Re: ATL: EIGHT - Recon

#111 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Aug 28, 2016 12:59 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 281757
AF303 0108A CYCLONE HDOB 22 20160828
174730 3230N 07136W 8427 01617 0143 +186 +104 057026 026 030 000 00
174800 3229N 07135W 8430 01616 0146 +183 +103 063027 027 031 000 00
174830 3228N 07133W 8428 01618 0145 +183 +101 068027 028 031 001 00
174900 3227N 07132W 8424 01621 0147 +180 +100 065027 028 029 001 00
174930 3226N 07131W 8435 01612 0149 +179 +098 067028 029 028 001 00
175000 3225N 07129W 8424 01622 0146 +180 +097 068028 029 028 000 00
175030 3224N 07128W 8427 01617 0146 +179 +096 065027 028 028 001 00
175100 3223N 07127W 8429 01614 0144 +182 +095 063025 027 027 000 00
175130 3222N 07125W 8426 01616 0142 +185 +095 066025 026 028 000 00
175200 3220N 07124W 8432 01611 0143 +181 +095 068028 029 028 001 00
175230 3219N 07123W 8432 01611 0145 +177 +096 065027 029 028 001 00
175300 3218N 07121W 8425 01616 0139 +186 +095 067028 030 028 000 00
175330 3217N 07120W 8430 01610 0137 +187 +095 069024 026 028 000 00
175400 3216N 07119W 8430 01611 0132 +196 +095 072023 026 029 001 00
175430 3215N 07118W 8424 01617 0138 +185 +098 073025 026 029 001 00
175500 3214N 07116W 8430 01610 0132 +194 +099 069025 025 027 000 00
175530 3213N 07115W 8427 01612 0130 +195 +099 067025 026 026 000 00
175600 3212N 07114W 8434 01605 0132 +192 +101 068025 025 027 000 00
175630 3210N 07112W 8428 01611 0132 +192 +103 072027 027 025 000 00
175700 3209N 07111W 8434 01604 0129 +194 +104 072028 028 026 000 00
$$
;
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Re: ATL: EIGHT - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#112 Postby OuterBanker » Sun Aug 28, 2016 1:05 pm

How interesting. Clouds have already moved in. Showers and winds are starting to pick up. Looks like the southeast shear that is limiting development is pushing everthing toward us. The problem when the shear is blowing towards you. This am the weather forcast callled for sunny with scattered showers. Oh well.
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Re: ATL: EIGHT - Recon

#113 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Aug 28, 2016 1:09 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 281807
AF303 0108A CYCLONE HDOB 23 20160828
175730 3208N 07110W 8424 01615 0131 +190 +105 072028 029 026 000 00
175800 3207N 07108W 8433 01604 0129 +194 +106 070028 028 025 000 00
175830 3206N 07107W 8425 01610 0130 +190 +107 068027 027 025 000 00
175900 3204N 07107W 8432 01605 0132 +189 +108 067028 028 024 000 00
175930 3203N 07106W 8427 01609 0126 +193 +108 065026 028 025 000 00
180000 3201N 07105W 8430 01598 0117 +195 +108 063024 025 026 000 00
180030 3200N 07104W 8429 01595 0110 +199 +109 058021 023 026 000 00
180100 3158N 07104W 8430 01594 0109 +200 +110 060021 021 025 001 00
180130 3157N 07103W 8426 01594 0105 +199 +112 057021 021 026 000 00
180200 3155N 07102W 8435 01583 0098 +208 +113 057023 023 025 000 00
180230 3154N 07101W 8426 01590 0094 +212 +116 058022 023 025 000 00
180300 3152N 07100W 8431 01588 0096 +211 +118 056022 022 026 000 00
180330 3151N 07059W 8429 01592 0100 +203 +121 055024 024 024 001 00
180400 3149N 07058W 8429 01588 0094 +211 +123 048020 024 023 000 00
180430 3148N 07057W 8432 01585 0089 +218 +125 037019 020 023 000 00
180500 3146N 07056W 8432 01582 0086 +217 +126 035021 023 025 000 00
180530 3145N 07055W 8426 01588 0084 +221 +128 034021 023 024 000 03
180600 3144N 07053W 8430 01584 0081 +225 +131 031022 023 025 000 00
180630 3143N 07052W 8430 01581 0077 +225 +133 036025 025 024 000 00
180700 3142N 07050W 8429 01581 0082 +217 +134 030023 025 024 001 00
$$
;
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Re: ATL: EIGHT - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#114 Postby seahawkjd » Sun Aug 28, 2016 1:15 pm

Image

Here's 12z Tuesday from the latest EURO. Isn't this somewhat further west this run?
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Re: ATL: EIGHT - Recon

#115 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Aug 28, 2016 1:19 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 281817
AF303 0108A CYCLONE HDOB 24 20160828
180730 3141N 07049W 8427 01583 0078 +220 +136 021024 024 023 000 00
180800 3140N 07047W 8426 01582 0079 +214 +138 014022 023 023 000 00
180830 3139N 07045W 8424 01584 0088 +199 +139 012011 022 021 000 00
180900 3139N 07043W 8439 01566 0087 +196 +140 034007 007 020 000 00
180930 3138N 07042W 8428 01578 0086 +199 +139 028006 008 018 000 03
181000 3138N 07040W 8429 01573 0085 +196 +137 052001 003 016 000 03
181030 3137N 07039W 8432 01568 0085 +194 +135 075005 006 /// /// 03
181100 3135N 07040W 8421 01582 0086 +195 +133 032005 006 023 001 00
181130 3134N 07041W 8430 01571 0085 +195 +132 020008 009 023 001 00
181200 3133N 07043W 8434 01570 0089 +194 +131 358009 012 023 000 00
181230 3132N 07044W 8428 01579 0090 +196 +130 351011 013 022 000 00
181300 3130N 07046W 8433 01576 0096 +190 +129 331011 012 023 000 00
181330 3129N 07047W 8424 01582 0097 +185 +129 329011 013 024 001 00
181400 3128N 07048W 8432 01578 0102 +181 +128 336011 013 023 001 00
181430 3127N 07050W 8424 01585 0104 +180 +125 325012 013 019 001 00
181500 3126N 07051W 8427 01582 0101 +182 +123 331011 013 021 000 00
181530 3125N 07053W 8432 01578 0103 +183 +121 329011 013 020 000 00
181600 3124N 07054W 8428 01583 0105 +182 +120 340010 011 019 000 00
181630 3122N 07056W 8426 01587 0106 +182 +119 333011 012 019 000 00
181700 3121N 07057W 8430 01583 0107 +182 +119 338013 014 021 001 00
$$
;

Center near 31.6N 70.7W. Pressure 1008mb.
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Re: ATL: EIGHT - Recon

#116 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Aug 28, 2016 1:28 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 281827
AF303 0108A CYCLONE HDOB 25 20160828
181730 3120N 07058W 8428 01585 0098 +199 +117 338011 013 018 000 00
181800 3119N 07100W 8433 01582 0103 +193 +117 327009 009 017 000 00
181830 3118N 07101W 8429 01587 0105 +190 +117 331009 010 017 000 00
181900 3117N 07103W 8416 01599 0106 +186 +118 333011 012 019 000 00
181930 3115N 07104W 8417 01599 0110 +184 +119 327011 013 020 001 00
182000 3114N 07106W 8430 01587 0112 +182 +122 330012 013 022 000 00
182030 3112N 07108W 8432 01589 0115 +181 +125 332014 014 024 001 00
182100 3110N 07110W 8429 01595 0117 +183 +129 327014 016 023 001 00
182130 3109N 07112W 8433 01594 0121 +182 +134 332017 018 021 001 00
182200 3107N 07114W 8430 01598 0122 +183 +137 339015 017 021 001 00
182230 3105N 07116W 8428 01601 0126 +179 +138 341013 014 022 001 00
182300 3104N 07118W 8429 01601 0126 +180 +137 344013 014 021 001 00
182330 3102N 07121W 8427 01602 0124 +185 +135 344015 015 022 000 00
182400 3100N 07123W 8430 01600 0127 +181 +137 341014 015 022 000 00
182430 3059N 07125W 8430 01602 0130 +178 +138 348014 015 020 001 00
182500 3057N 07127W 8431 01601 0132 +174 +140 350012 013 022 000 00
182530 3055N 07129W 8429 01605 0133 +175 +141 345012 013 020 000 00
182600 3054N 07131W 8428 01608 0132 +181 +140 338013 013 022 000 00
182630 3052N 07133W 8431 01606 0129 +187 +139 327012 013 021 001 00
182700 3050N 07135W 8427 01610 0132 +181 +139 316011 012 020 001 00
$$
;
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Re: ATL: EIGHT - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#117 Postby NDG » Sun Aug 28, 2016 1:30 pm

All the sudden TD 8 looks like crap, recon barely finds a TD and circulation is elongated.
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Re: ATL: EIGHT - Recon

#118 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Aug 28, 2016 1:38 pm

000
URNT12 KNHC 281828
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL082016
A. 28/18:09:40Z
B. 31 deg 38 min N
070 deg 41 min W
C. 850 mb 1500 m
D. 35 kt
E. 313 deg 87 nm
F. 067 deg 30 kt
G. 315 deg 52 nm
H. 1010 mb
I. 18 C / 1533 m
J. 22 C / 1521 m
K. NA / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134 / 08
O. 0.02 / 4.5 nm
P. AF303 0108A CYCLONE OB 11
MAX FL WIND 30 KT 315 / 52 NM 17:53:00Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 110 / 6 KT
MAX FL TEMP 23 C 293 / 9 NM FROM FL CNTR
;

Don't be fooled too much by the pressure. The background pressures are extremely high.
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Re: ATL: EIGHT - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#119 Postby BobHarlem » Sun Aug 28, 2016 1:39 pm

TD#8's center just get exposed? Looks like shear just whacked all the convection to the Northwest.
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Re: ATL: EIGHT - Recon

#120 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Aug 28, 2016 1:39 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 281837
AF303 0108A CYCLONE HDOB 26 20160828
182730 3049N 07137W 8432 01605 0134 +181 +140 324010 012 020 000 00
182800 3047N 07139W 8429 01610 0138 +178 +140 330010 011 019 000 00
182830 3045N 07141W 8428 01611 0139 +176 +140 335010 010 017 000 00
182900 3043N 07143W 8426 01612 0140 +174 +140 326009 010 016 001 00
182930 3042N 07145W 8430 01608 0142 +172 +139 323009 009 017 000 03
183000 3040N 07147W 8429 01607 0142 +168 +139 300008 009 014 001 03
183030 3038N 07146W 8429 01608 0140 +171 +140 279008 009 /// /// 03
183100 3037N 07143W 8428 01611 0141 +170 +141 266007 008 /// /// 03
183130 3039N 07141W 8430 01612 0140 +175 +141 256004 005 016 000 03
183200 3040N 07139W 8427 01612 0139 +175 +141 275005 006 018 001 00
183230 3040N 07136W 8430 01608 0136 +181 +140 274006 006 019 001 00
183300 3041N 07133W 8428 01608 0133 +181 +139 274006 006 020 000 00
183330 3042N 07131W 8427 01610 0134 +181 +138 281007 007 021 000 00
183400 3042N 07128W 8430 01607 0135 +180 +138 285008 009 020 000 00
183430 3043N 07125W 8430 01607 0135 +180 +138 289010 011 021 000 00
183500 3043N 07122W 8430 01605 0134 +176 +138 276011 012 021 000 00
183530 3044N 07120W 8426 01607 0128 +185 +137 268009 011 024 001 00
183600 3045N 07117W 8432 01604 0135 +177 +137 266014 015 024 000 00
183630 3045N 07114W 8426 01607 0132 +178 +137 266013 016 024 001 00
183700 3046N 07111W 8430 01602 0128 +184 +136 258010 011 026 000 00
$$
;
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