ATL: NICOLE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[JarrodB]

Any chance the models confused Nichole and Matthew, which means Matthew will go North and Nichole will go to Florida?

[underthwx]

Any chance the models confused Nichole and Matthew, which means Matthew will go North and Nichole will go to Florida?

Not sure about that, but, the system looks healthy on satellite. NHC has it drifting southward a bit, then back to the north-northwest,I believe. Please correct me if I am wrong.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016
500 PM AST SAT OCT 08 2016

A tremendous burst of deep convection has developed this afternoon,
partially covering and southeast of Nicole's low-level center. A
late-morning ASCAT pass indicated 41-kt uncontaminated wind vectors
east of the center, and given the recent burst of convection, the
initial intensity estimate is increased to 45 kt. This is in
agreement with latest Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB.

The initial motion estimate is 195/05. A blocking ridge north of
Nicole should keep Nicole moving on this general course for another
12 hours or so, though its forward speed should begin to decrease.
As the ridge shifts to the northeast of Nicole by late tomorrow, the
cyclone should reverse its motion 180 degrees and begin moving
north-northwestward. The global models continue to show a binary
interaction between Matthew or its remnants in 2 to 3 days, but the
ECMWF no longer is drawing Nicole as far west as it was previously.
A turn toward the north and then northeast is expected by days 4 and
5. The track guidance has come into much better agreement and has
resulted in a more confident track forecast this cycle. The new
forecast track is slower than the previous one and shifted a bit to
the east but not as far east as the model consensus aids.

As high as the vertical shear has been over Nicole, it is puzzling
that no additional weakening has taken place. At a minimum, the
strong northerly shear should preclude significant intensification
in the short term. A nominal decrease in the shear over the next
couple of days could allow Nicole to re-intensify, perhaps more than
indicated in this forecast. A more substantial reduction of the
shear is forecast by 72 hours, and a re-intensification of the
cyclone seems more likely than it did earlier on days 3 and 4,
similar to what the global models have been showing. By the end of
the forecast period, increasing shear could cause the intensity to
level off. The new intensity forecast is higher than the previous
one and is generally near the multi-model consensus. It continues to
be of low confidence after 48 hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/2100Z 24.8N 65.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 24.2N 65.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 24.2N 65.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 24.7N 65.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 10/1800Z 25.7N 65.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 11/1800Z 27.5N 66.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 12/1800Z 30.4N 65.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 13/1800Z 33.9N 62.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

NNNN

[gatorcane]

MU much stronger and near Bermuda

[Airboy]

Impresive burst on convection going on.

[Kazmit]

Won't be surprised to see Nicole become a hurricane again in a few days.

[Hammy]

It seems the storms have decided to stop following the rules regarding shear--Nicole looked like it was headed towards remnant low earlier today but that massive convective burst is holding.

[GeneratorPower]

It is beyond me why people are calling the GFS the "MU". The product graphics say GFS. Why would we add confusion to this process?

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Access runs atm, showing interaction with Mathew and the low looping and maybe there-about's @1006mb on the plot Wednesday 12th.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

=

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016
1100 PM AST SAT OCT 08 2016

Strong convection continues to fire near the center of Nicole,
although microwave data still suggest the center is on the
northern edge of the convection. Dvorak estimates range from 37 to
55 kt for this advisory, so the initial wind speed is held at 45
kt. Northerly wind shear is forecast to continue for the next couple
of days, perhaps at a slightly weaker value than the current 35 kt.
By about Tuesday, almost all of the global models drop the shear
significantly, which will probably allow Nicole to restrengthen
since it will be moving over very warm waters. The guidance is more
insistent on this cycle that Nicole will become a hurricane again by
day 4, and the official forecast goes with this scenario.

The initial motion is 180/4, a little to the left of earlier.
Nicole should meander for a day or so before a ridge to the east
builds, causing the tropical cyclone to move slowly northward until
about day 2. Some interaction with the remnants of Matthew are
likely to steer Nicole to the northwest for about a day until Nicole
turns back to the north and northeast in increasing southwesterly
flow. Models are in good agreement on this unusual Atlantic track
scenario, so very little change was made to the previous NHC
forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0300Z 24.4N 65.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 24.0N 65.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 24.4N 65.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 10/1200Z 25.2N 65.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 11/0000Z 26.3N 65.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 12/0000Z 28.0N 66.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 13/0000Z 30.5N 66.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 14/0000Z 34.0N 62.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

[Kazmit]

As of 11pm EDT, Nicole is expected to become a hurricane again, and before making its approach to Bermuda.

[AutoPenalti]

Wow, she is really being pushed South...

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

The front is trying hard to latch onto the storm.

[Hammy]

If the center is close to where the X is, this could be a hurricane again by tomorrow.

[Kazmit]

A little bit better track agreement now, but still fairly uncertain on determining what the closest point will be to Bermuda.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016
500 AM AST SUN OCT 09 2016

Without any recent microwave data, it has been difficult to locate
Nicole's center. However, the center is fully embedded beneath the
deep convection, and Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB
support holding the maximum winds at 45 kt. Northerly shear
affecting the cyclone has decreased a little since this time
yesterday and is now analyzed to be about 35 kt. The magnitude of
the shear should continue to gradually decrease, reaching a minimum
in about 2 to 3 days. After that time, the shear could once again
increase when Nicole gets closer to the mid-latitude westerlies.
Due to the ebbs and flows of the shear, the NHC intensity forecast
shows little change in strength for the next 36 hours and then
indicates gradual strengthening from day 2 through day 5. This
forecast shows the same general trend indicated in the previous
advisory.

Nicole has been drifting southward but now appears to be almost
stationary as it becomes collocated with a nearby mid-level low
pressure area. Little motion is expected for the next day or so,
but Nicole should begin to move slowly northward after 24 hours
when it is picked up by two shortwave troughs moving off the east
coast of the United States. A northeastward acceleration is
expected by the end of the forecast period once Nicole becomes
established within mid-latitude westerly flow. The ECMWF model
remains a western outlier since it shows a little more interaction
between Nicole and Matthew's remnant mid-level circulation.
However, the updated NHC track forecast is close to the previous
forecast and remains between the GFS and ECMWF solutions.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0900Z 24.3N 65.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 24.3N 65.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 10/0600Z 24.9N 65.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 10/1800Z 25.9N 65.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 11/0600Z 26.9N 65.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 12/0600Z 28.4N 66.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 13/0600Z 31.0N 65.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 14/0600Z 35.0N 60.5W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

[TheEuropean]

German modell 06z for wednesday:

https://kachelmannwetter.com/de/modellk ... 1000z.html

central pressure 971 hPa

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

sheared from the cold front atm.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/785083469864931328