ATL: FIONA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Steve H.]

It's the usual ignorant reply to a system that has just came off Africa, out to sea. Models are just getting a handle on it, and if it doesn't spin up due to poor environmental conditions, it will likely push westward. Way too many variables to even guess at what is going to happen.

[blp]

Center elongated. Not a surprise. More like the GFS depiction instead of Euro.

[blp]

Convection still firing nicely.

[Hurricaneman]

I think this still has a bit of organization to go but I do think this has a decent shot at development

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[Caneman12]

i think this could develop rather quickly

[blp]

00z GFS ramping this up now more quickly early on inline with the Euro. All signs look good for this to develop now.

[Caneman12]

yeah development is becoming more likely

[blp]

Wow strong ridge is blocking it. Euro showed a massive ridge forcing a dive on wave behind 98l. Interesting might not be a clear cut fish.

[USTropics]

Operational 00z ECMWF continuing to show development for 98L (5 runs in a row now):

[USTropics]

00z ECMWF has a weakening system recurving north of the Leewards at 168 hours (it also suggests three systems in the Atlantic at once):

[SFLcane]

Blah...

[Kazmit]

I hope this doesn't become something like Gustav '96.

[Hammy]

GFS now showing development with 60 hours. Funny how quickly things change, just a day or two ago we were talking about how the models showed nothing for two weeks...

[Kazmit]

i think this could develop rather quickly

It has to if it wants to develop at all, as hostile conditions should be upon it in a few days. I hope the name Fiona isn't given to a fish, though.

[Siker]

06z GFS shows restrengthening around 50W, becoming a respectable hurricane as it curves out to sea.

[Kazmit]

06z GFS shows restrengthening around 50W, becoming a respectable hurricane as it curves out to sea.

Wow, 964 mbar is a borderline Cat 2/3. Bermuda might need to keep an eye on this one, as the way GFS shows its path.

[wxman57]

It doesn't appear to be any hurry to gain any latitude at all. Those BAM models assumed immediate development, thus the recurve. If it doesn't develop, which appears likely, then it may track west into the Caribbean. I think that's most likely.

[TheStormExpert]

I think little to no development is the most likely solution with 98L as it tracks westward. This wave should be the one that cleans up the Tropical Atlantic for future 99L(Pouch 21L), that's the wave to closely monitor per the latest GFS & Euro runs.

[TheStormExpert]

Up to 20%/30% now.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON AUG 15 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave located a few hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde
Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms well in
advance of it. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
gradual development of this disturbance during the next few days
before conditions become less favorable later this week. The system
is forecast to move west-northwestward at about 15 mph over the
eastern and central tropical Atlantic this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

The "X" is marked well east of the deep convection?

[NDG]

H85 vorticity is elongated this morning, no surprise here as it has been shown by the Euro to be elongated today and not to start getting better organized until tomorrow.
One thing that many who have been ignoring the Euro is that the GFS trended towards the Euro with development of this tropical wave.