ATL: GASTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hammy]

Models seem to be backing off on intensity somewhat--shear stronger than earlier shown?

[Hurricaneman]

Might need to be watched in Bermuda maybe even the east coast if the weakness closes like the GFS seems to do

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[cycloneye]

Bermuda may be in trouble? Hurricane at 984 mbs.

[TheStormExpert]

Diving WSW.

[TheStormExpert]

Stalled @ 186hrs.

[cycloneye]

Interesting moving WSW slowly.

[cycloneye]

At 204 hours moving NE slowly while continues to deepen (952 mbs)

[cycloneye]

Down to 927 mbs

[cycloneye]

Wow,908 mbs at truncation (240 hours)

[cycloneye]

Unlike 99L, 90L has unanimous consensus to become a long-lived and powerful hurricane across the open Atlantic. Should be fun.

Ahh, just what I wanted. A powerful storm that doesn't kill anyone, and is fun to track.

Could this be the big ACE pump the season has been needing to catch up?

If what models are showing that may be the case. Indeed this will be a must to track.

[SeGaBob]

Wow,908 mbs at truncation (240 hours)

Cat 5?

[cycloneye]

Here it is at 908 mbs.

[cycloneye]

Wow,908 mbs at truncation (240 hours)

Cat 5?

Cat 4 / 5.

[p1nheadlarry]

It's that time of year...following in 99L's footsteps is what looks like a wide open ocean for it to grow. Earlier runs had it close to NA, but hopefully it actually coalesces and goes harmlessly out to sea for Ireland to reap its extratropical rainfall.

[Hammy]

Does this have a realistic shot at becoming a major eventually given the model support this time?

[p1nheadlarry]

Does this have a realistic shot at becoming a major eventually given the model support this time?

Between hrs 36-72 there is an intrusion of dry air into the picture in the MDR http://weather.graphics/nasa/nasa_global_00.php. Outside of that, vertical shear should be on the low-end as Fiona and 99L move out of the picture, looking at near-to-above average SST's this time of year around 27C http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/atl_anal.gif. I think it does have a shot.

[cycloneye]

An area of low pressure, associated with another tropical wave, has
moved off the coast of Senegal in western Africa, and is producing a
large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression
is likely to form in a few days while the system moves westward and
then northwestward over the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

[p1nheadlarry]

An area of low pressure, associated with another tropical wave, has
moved off the coast of Senegal in western Africa, and is producing a
large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression
is likely to form in a few days while the system moves westward and
then northwestward over the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

Question: Theoretically speaking, 99L could be Gaston and 90L Hermine even if 90L became a TD first? Hopefully that sentence made sense

[Hammy]

An area of low pressure, associated with another tropical wave, has
moved off the coast of Senegal in western Africa, and is producing a
large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression
is likely to form in a few days while the system moves westward and
then northwestward over the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

Question: Theoretically speaking, 99L could be Gaston and 90L Hermine even if 90L became a TD first? Hopefully that sentence made sense

Yes, it's happened a few times (one I remember offhand was Humberto/Ingrid in 2007, with Humberto's depression forming after but strengthening more quickly). That said I don't think 99L would strengthen quick enough--90L looks like it's organizing fairly quickly and will likely not remain a depression for long once it forms.

[p1nheadlarry]

An area of low pressure, associated with another tropical wave, has
moved off the coast of Senegal in western Africa, and is producing a
large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression
is likely to form in a few days while the system moves westward and
then northwestward over the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

Question: Theoretically speaking, 99L could be Gaston and 90L Hermine even if 90L became a TD first? Hopefully that sentence made sense

Yes, it's happened a few times (one I remember offhand was Humberto/Ingrid in 2007, with Humberto's depression forming after but strengthening more quickly). That said I don't think 99L would strengthen quick enough--90L looks like it's organizing fairly quickly and will likely not remain a depression for long once it forms.

Humberto was the storm that shot up into Texas real quick correct? I figured names were first come first serve, just needed to make sure of the pre-name conventions too. Thank you.

I do see some thunderstorms flaring towards near where the mlc of our 99L vortex is, but the sst being near to higher than the atmospheric temp might be a factor in that case, I'll check on it tomorrow [need a yawn emoticon]. 90L has a good day or so over open water to tighten up, then once the dry air abates (or traverses it) it looks like all systems a go.