WPAC: NEPARTAK - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

Another great blog from Jeff Masters...

Category 5 Nepartak

[1900hurricane]

Looks like JTWC/JMA is staying at 150/115 kt for 00Z. Neither has budged since peak intensity.

[dexterlabio]

Would it be crazy to think that this has a shot to go 7.5, or even 8.0?

[euro6208]

DT numbers climbing back up. Well I didn't expect that this one will maintain its intensity (or even strengthen a bit more). I recall reading somewhere that a telling sign of La Nina is the area near East Asia becoming more favorable for TC development.. Also another sign is a stronger STR, which seems to be the case with this one. If the STR was weaker and broken down by the trough, Taiwan could have been spared.

It could possibly get worser leading up the winter. With very warm waters getting displaced west due to La nina establishing itself more, the formation of TC will shift west. South China Sea, Philippine Sea and East China Sea will be at huge risk.

[euro6208]

JTWC suggesting this is almost an annular TC so significant weakening is unlikely at this point and why it has remained quite strong for sometime now.

[1900hurricane]

One thing worth watching out for is another eyewall replacement cycle. It's hard to tell considering the range currently, but Taiwan radar may already be suggesting a secondary reflectivity maximum surrounding the new eyewall.

[dexterlabio]

Haiyan originally had a pinhole eye... the rest is history..




I personally think Nepartak will be a storm to remember by the people there... but I do hope the possible damage and casualties will be very minimal...

[euro6208]

Looks like the Atlantic's motto...IT ONLY TAKES ONE...might apply this season due to the record slow start but i still think we might get a couple of these more the rest of year...

[1900hurricane]

Absolutely classic WPac shape now.

[Alyono]

Lets not lose sight of the fact that it will be the rain, not the wind, that will cause the most problems. Taiwan is built like a fortress. The winds will cause some damage, but we're not looking at a Haiyan.

Now, the 50 inches of rain (no hyperbole there, I do expect totals that high) that will fall in the mountains will cause terrible mudslides, which will destroy many structures and probably cause loss of life

[stormwise]

A media story suggests in Taiwan the evacuations plan and warning systems are up to speed and the people are listening. Unlike the PI with Haiyan.

[euro6208]

Strong convection wrapping around eye and cooling...

[euro6208]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 07 JUL 2016 Time : 010000 UTC
Lat : 21:26:54 N Lon : 124:03:21 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.8 / 920.9mb/134.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.8 7.0 7.0

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 18 km

Center Temp : +16.7C Cloud Region Temp : -77.3C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 145km
- Environmental MSLP : 1006mb

Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 31.6 degrees

****************************************************

[euro6208]

OHC is well in excess of 50 around the storm but is now traversing warmer, 100...

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/750871452761542656

[NDG]

So when was the last time Taiwan got hit with such a strong Typhoon?
Nepartak has all of the warm ocean energy after such a long drought of storms in this area.

The last Category 5 hit (JTWC) was Billis 2000, with 1-minute sustained winds of 140kt and a pressure of 920mb. Strongest hit would be Joan 1959, with 1-min sustained winds of 160kt and a pressure of 900mb.

Now I see why most of the population is on the western coast of the Island.

[1900hurricane]

After looking at it a little more, I do believe that the secondary reflectivity max on Taiwanese radar is indeed a developing outer eyewall. It may also help explain why IR temps are a little cooler than yesterday and why the coldest part of the CDO is set back a little bit from the (inner) eyewall.

[vbhoutex]

 https://twitter.com/BMcNoldy/status/750840464685854720

[CrazyC83]

Are there any major populated areas on the east/southeast coast of Taiwan?

[StormChaser75]

AMAZING super typhoon nepartak! Satellite images ! I haven't looked at the satellite imagery since early morning my time .and now it has a very beautiful very defined large eye .. This will surely be a memorable event to taiwan.. hopefully the mountainous terrain of Taiwan will weaken this a bit Before landfall .