ATL: HERMINE - Models

[Wx_Warrior]

Euro 12z 72H

[Wx_Warrior]

Here is 12z Euro landfall south of Tallahassee, stronger this run

[Stormcenter]

Is that further west than the previous run?

Here is 12z Euro landfall south of Tallahassee, stronger this run

[xcool22]

Is that further west than the previous run?

Here is 12z Euro landfall south of Tallahassee, stronger this run

I think so

[gatorcane]

12Z Euro with a Sandy-esque turn back into New England. Animated GIF below:

[SouthFLTropics]

12Z Euro with a Sandy-esque turn back into New England.

I've been posting the Euro images on the 92L thread but that image just caught my attention. It straight up pulled a left hook into Massachusetts and Long Island.

[tolakram]

12Z Euro, suddenly makign this stronger. Very inconsistent.

[xironman]

12Z Euro with a Sandy-esque turn back into New England. Animated GIF below:

The GFS shows the 500 mb trough that pulls it back. If 9 slows down things are going to get really interesting late in the game.

[tolakram]

Weatherbell higher rez shows 983mb at landfall between 60 and 66 hours.

[xironman]

12Z Euro, suddenly makign this stronger. Very inconsistent.

It may be being baroclinically enhanced by 500 mb feature as it goes past Hatteras.

[Dean4Storms]

So the 12z ECM trended a bit further West as well as the ECM EPS at 00z. The 12 GEFS also trended further west and well as GEM and the GEPS a lot further west near P'Cola.

Starting to think this will be a FL Panhandle landfall instead of over near Cedar Key.

[tolakram]

The Cape Cod hit is very weak, around 1006mb.

[Dean4Storms]

I also see the JMA 12z came further West with Landfall near PCB.

[xironman]

The Cape Hatteras hit is very weak, around 1006mb.

It never hits Hatteras, it is 984 when it is NNE of it though.

[tolakram]

The Cape Hatteras hit is very weak, around 1006mb.

Good grief, talk about mis-information, sorry about that.

Cape Cod.

[Dean4Storms]

Weatherbell higher rez shows 983mb at landfall between 60 and 66 hours.

I'm getting 979mb just before landfall.

[JaxGator]

Here is 12z Euro landfall south of Tallahassee, stronger this run

It is further west on this run but North Florida and Southeast Georgia are still in the right-front quad.

[ronjon]

Wonder if NHC will bump up their intensity forecast now based on the 12z model trends?

[LarryWx]

Wonder if NHC will bump up their intensity forecast now based on the 12z model trends?

Despite these model runs, I wouldn't up the intensity with it struggling as much as it is now. I'd consider current reality over fantasy model projections.

[Stormcenter]

The NHC wouldn't appreciate you calling their sacred model (GFS & EURO) runs fantasy projections.

Wonder if NHC will bump up their intensity forecast now based on the 12z model trends?

Despite these model runs, I wouldn't up the intensity with it struggling as much as it is now. I'd consider current reality over fantasy model projections.