SPAC: Post-Tropical-WINSTON
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Re: SPAC: Tropical Cyclone WINSTON
Remarkable now at it's strongest at 125 knots Cat 4!
11P WINSTON 160219 0600 17.5S 175.9W SHEM 125 929
11P WINSTON 160219 0600 17.5S 175.9W SHEM 125 929
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NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
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Re: SPAC: Tropical Cyclone WINSTON
looking likely, Winston already is or is now nudging cat5
Edited*** added current data.
Satellite data
2016FEB19 065200 7.0 923.0 +2.0 140.0 7.0 7.2 7.2 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -37.96 -77.90 EYE 15 IR 59.7 -17.46 176.36 COMBO GOES15 51.0
2016FEB19 072200 7.1 920.0 +2.0 143.0 7.1 7.2 7.2 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -35.06 -78.04 EYE 17 IR 59.7 -17.46 176.45 COMBO
UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Algorithm
Current Intensity Analysis
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 19 FEB 2016 Time : 070000 UTC
Lat : 17:20:52 S Lon : 176:07:11 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.0 / 914.6mb/140.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.0 7.4 7.4
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 16 km
Center Temp : -24.7C Cloud Region Temp : -78.3C
Scene Type : EYE
Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION
Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 125km
- Environmental MSLP : 1002mb
Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 52.5 degrees
TROPICAL CYCLONE THREAT TRACK MAP
Severe Tropical Cyclone WINSTON Category 5
Tropical Cyclone Warning Number 44 issued 0720 UTC Friday 19 February 2016
Has met Fiji RSMC basin reqiurments for a cat5 over 10min.
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Re: SPAC: Tropical Cyclone WINSTON
GOD BLESS FIJI.
HWRF Insane model intensity.
stormwise wrote:
looking likely, Winston already is or is now nudging cat5 SSHS
Edited*** added current data.
Satellite data
2016FEB19 065200 7.0 923.0 +2.0 140.0 7.0 7.2 7.2 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -37.96 -77.90 EYE 15 IR 59.7 -17.46 176.36 COMBO GOES15 51.0
2016FEB19 072200 7.1 920.0 +2.0 143.0 7.1 7.2 7.2 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -35.06 -78.04 EYE 17 IR 59.7 -17.46 176.45 COMBO
UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Algorithm
Current Intensity Analysis
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 19 FEB 2016 Time : 070000 UTC
Lat : 17:20:52 S Lon : 176:07:11 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.0 / 914.6mb/140.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.0 7.4 7.4
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 16 km
Center Temp : -24.7C Cloud Region Temp : -78.3C
Scene Type : EYE
Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION
Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 125km
- Environmental MSLP : 1002mb
Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 52.5 degrees
TROPICAL CYCLONE THREAT TRACK MAP
Severe Tropical Cyclone WINSTON Category 5
Tropical Cyclone Warning Number 44 issued 0720 UTC Friday 19 February 2016
Has met Fiji RSMC basin reqiurments for a cat5 over 10min.
HWRF Insane model intensity.
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Re: SPAC: Tropical Cyclone WINSTON
2016FEB19 093000 7.4 902.3 152.0 7.4 7.6 7.6 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -19.84 -79.04 EYE 19 IR 75.2 -17.35 176.64 SPRL HIM-8 51.9
2016FEB19 100000 7.5 899.2 155.0 7.5 7.8 7.8 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -9.72 -79.58 EYE 18 IR 75.2 -17.35 176.72 SPRL HIM-8 51.8
2016FEB19 103000 7.5 899.2 155.0 7.5 7.7 7.7 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -17.55 -79.39 EYE 17 IR 75.2 -17.35 176.81 SPRL HIM-8 51.8
2016FEB19 110000 7.6 896.0 158.0 7.6 7.9 7.9 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -12.83 -80.06 EYE 19 IR 75.2 -17.25 177.00 COMBO HIM-8 51.5
2016FEB19 100000 7.5 899.2 155.0 7.5 7.8 7.8 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -9.72 -79.58 EYE 18 IR 75.2 -17.35 176.72 SPRL HIM-8 51.8
2016FEB19 103000 7.5 899.2 155.0 7.5 7.7 7.7 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -17.55 -79.39 EYE 17 IR 75.2 -17.35 176.81 SPRL HIM-8 51.8
2016FEB19 110000 7.6 896.0 158.0 7.6 7.9 7.9 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -12.83 -80.06 EYE 19 IR 75.2 -17.25 177.00 COMBO HIM-8 51.5
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Re: SPAC: Tropical Cyclone WINSTON
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 19 FEB 2016 Time : 113000 UTC
Lat : 17:20:53 S Lon : 177:04:53 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.6 / 896.0mb/158.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.6 7.9 7.9
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 18 km
Center Temp : -4.4C Cloud Region Temp : -79.8C
Scene Type : EYE
Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS
Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 125km
- Environmental MSLP : 1002mb
Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 51.5 degrees
****************************************************
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 19 FEB 2016 Time : 113000 UTC
Lat : 17:20:53 S Lon : 177:04:53 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.6 / 896.0mb/158.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.6 7.9 7.9
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 18 km
Center Temp : -4.4C Cloud Region Temp : -79.8C
Scene Type : EYE
Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS
Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 125km
- Environmental MSLP : 1002mb
Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 51.5 degrees
****************************************************
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
Re: SPAC: Tropical Cyclone WINSTON
Both EURO and GFS is northerly.
EURO over the main island, Viti Levu +800,000, while GFS hits Vanua Levu...
EURO over the main island, Viti Levu +800,000, while GFS hits Vanua Levu...
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
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Re: SPAC: Tropical Cyclone WINSTON
Likely 140-145, a bit below the extreme ADT. JTWC, SAB, and CPHC all have this at T6.5, but it definitely has/had a case for T7.0 (question is the CMG thick enough?).
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Re: SPAC: Tropical Cyclone WINSTON
ADT 8.2.1 might be too extreme with intensity since it seems to be prioritizing the CDO temp too much when compared to the eye temp which is still below 0*C. With that said though, Winston is being viewed at a rather large angle (VZA >50*), so it is possible (if not likely) that the eye is a fair bit warmer and Winston is in actuality a SSHWS Category 5 (I'd still say the raw 8.0s are still outlandish though).
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Re: SPAC: Tropical Cyclone WINSTON
ADT 8.2.1 CI is now 8.0, raw up to 8.3 from an eye that has broken into the warm medium grey category. I wouldn't go that high, but Winston is getting very strong now, and might be pushing 155 kt by my eye.
Also worth noting is that CIMSS adjusted their scale to go up to T8.5. Apparently they were tired of storms breaking the 8.0 ceiling.
Also worth noting is that CIMSS adjusted their scale to go up to T8.5. Apparently they were tired of storms breaking the 8.0 ceiling.
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Re: SPAC: Tropical Cyclone WINSTON
It looks like Winston will be riding a tongue of high heat content all the way to Fiji.
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Re: SPAC: Tropical Cyclone WINSTON
Looks like I was extremely busy at the office for the past few days. Totally surprised! Gawd what a cyclone. Must be at least 145 knots now.
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Re: SPAC: Tropical Cyclone WINSTON
May be heading to the northern main island and not the southern one
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Re: SPAC: Tropical Cyclone WINSTON
Last edited by 1900hurricane on Fri Feb 19, 2016 12:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: SPAC: Tropical Cyclone WINSTON
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Re: SPAC: Tropical Cyclone WINSTON
Here's some early morning visible.
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Re: SPAC: Tropical Cyclone WINSTON
An island outside of the eyewall had a sustained wind of 89 mph and a pressure of 955mb. Vanua Balavu
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Re: SPAC: Tropical Cyclone WINSTON
JTWC is going with 145 kt at 18Z, same as they had operationally for Pam almost a year ago.
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Re: SPAC: Tropical Cyclone WINSTON
somehow, there was just a surface report of 107 kt winds and 936mb
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