ATL: GASTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Hammy
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#41 Postby Hammy » Sun Aug 21, 2016 1:16 am

p1nheadlarry wrote:
Hammy wrote:
p1nheadlarry wrote:
Question: Theoretically speaking, 99L could be Gaston and 90L Hermine even if 90L became a TD first? Hopefully that sentence made sense :oops:


Yes, it's happened a few times (one I remember offhand was Humberto/Ingrid in 2007, with Humberto's depression forming after but strengthening more quickly). That said I don't think 99L would strengthen quick enough--90L looks like it's organizing fairly quickly and will likely not remain a depression for long once it forms.


Humberto was the storm that shot up into Texas real quick correct? I figured names were first come first serve, just needed to make sure of the pre-name conventions too. Thank you.

I do see some thunderstorms flaring towards near where the mlc of our 99L vortex is, but the sst being near to higher than the atmospheric temp might be a factor in that case, I'll check on it tomorrow [need a yawn emoticon]. 90L has a good day or so over open water to tighten up, then once the dry air abates (or traverses it) it looks like all systems a go.


Yeah, Humberto was the one that went from pretty much nothing to a landfalling high-end Cat 1 in about 18 hours, and I don't think any of the models saw that one developing as there was literally nothing there 48 hours prior.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#42 Postby Hammy » Sun Aug 21, 2016 1:36 am

Euro has a hurricane by 120h and major by 144h.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#43 Postby Siker » Sun Aug 21, 2016 1:46 am

946mb peak at 156 hours on the 00z Euro.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#44 Postby Kazmit » Sun Aug 21, 2016 5:12 am

Wow, a Cat 4/5 in the Central Atlantic? This could be the powerful storm this season is missing so far. Bermuda may need to watch this one though, a Fabian repeat would not be good.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#45 Postby USTropics » Sun Aug 21, 2016 5:15 am

06z GFS is more north with a stronger system this run, down to 980mb at 126 hours:

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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#46 Postby USTropics » Sun Aug 21, 2016 5:21 am

Siker wrote:946mb peak at 156 hours on the 00z Euro.


959mb on 00z GFS at 156 hours:

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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#47 Postby USTropics » Sun Aug 21, 2016 5:26 am

matches the ECMWF at 174 hours with 946mb:

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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#48 Postby USTropics » Sun Aug 21, 2016 5:30 am

Pressure still dropping, down to 939mb at 186 hours:

http://i.imgur.com/Lkbrikw.png
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#49 Postby USTropics » Sun Aug 21, 2016 6:04 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#50 Postby USTropics » Sun Aug 21, 2016 6:58 am

Up to 70/90

2. Cloudiness and thunderstorms located over the far eastern Atlantic
Ocean are associated with a low pressure area and tropical wave
that has moved off the west coast of Africa. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a
tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of days
while the system moves westward and then northwestward over the
eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#51 Postby Kazmit » Sun Aug 21, 2016 7:01 am

70%/90%. Looks like TD 7 (Gaston) will be forming quite soon.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#52 Postby Kazmit » Sun Aug 21, 2016 8:44 am

12z guidances... more model support.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#53 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 21, 2016 9:52 am

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ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#54 Postby SEASON_CANCELED » Sun Aug 21, 2016 10:11 am

To far north ...Will be a fish spinner
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#55 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 21, 2016 10:35 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#56 Postby tolakram » Sun Aug 21, 2016 10:50 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#57 Postby p1nheadlarry » Sun Aug 21, 2016 10:53 am



It'd be nice to see a good chunk of it collected during the peak of the season. I believed from the start we'd see it accumulate the most as we have the last few seasons, in October. We shall see if that changes.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#58 Postby Ntxw » Sun Aug 21, 2016 10:58 am

25+ units would definitely help keep close to the average if not above. We haven't seen above the normal average pace in some years.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#59 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 21, 2016 11:05 am

12z GFs has already 90L as a Hurricane in 96 hours.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#60 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 21, 2016 11:26 am

Down to 958 mbs at 168 hours and moving west at that timeframe

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