ATL: JULIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Nederlander]

Regardless of whether or not it has a closed llc (which I believe it does), the convection is currently pathetic. Will be interesting to see how healthy it looks during dmax. Aside from the convection, it certainly has that look...

[Blown Away]

[Hurricaneman]

looks like it will be a micro system, those can ramp up quickly and also if shear is involved die quickly, just remember Danny last year

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[abajan]

As a result of light winds caused by 93L, northern sections of Barbados have been getting heavy showers and thunderstorms and are in fact under a flood warning. The weather in the south is just the opposite. We've had brilliant sunshine for most of the day and it's hot with not a drop of rain!

[LarryWx]

Convection is starting to rebuild on the SW side of this.

[Nimbus]

I haven't researched this yet but there seems to be a scenario where this gets trapped under a ridge and moves west over Florida. We just got 14" to 20" of rain and 8 to 10 feet of ocean from Hermine in Florida.

Thanks LarryWX, looks like it is currently under shear from the south so track should be weak and west till it misses that trough that 92L pulled down?

[LarryWx]

I haven't researched this yet but there seems to be a scenario where this gets trapped under a ridge and moves west over Florida. We just got 14" to 20" of rain and 8 to 10 feet of ocean from Hermine in Florida.

Yes, IF this takes a southern enough route over the next 72 hours or so, it would not have an escape route and would possibly be forced into FL.

[Blown Away]

Convection is starting to rebuild on the SW side of this.

[Kazmit]

I haven't researched this yet but there seems to be a scenario where this gets trapped under a ridge and moves west over Florida. We just got 14" to 20" of rain and 8 to 10 feet of ocean from Hermine in Florida.

Yes, IF this takes a southern enough route over the next 72 hours or so, it would not have an escape route and would possibly be forced into FL.

And it would also have a better chance of strengthening as it would not run into the unfavourable conditions north of 93L which the NHC mentions. Florida does not need another storm...

[Frank2]

Sometimes these quick bloomers can be trouble - we shall see...

[AutoPenalti]

It's mooing WNW currently with convection trying to build back up. This may be the one to watch.

[LarryWx]

So, now we at 12Z suddenly have two of the best tropical models hitting near Daytona Beach next week (albeit weakly as of these runs) vs having had zero CONUS hits from this by either of these two models prior to today's 12Z runs. Keeping in mind VERY warm SST's along this potential path, a favorable MJO within the circle, it being the heart of the active season, projections of a WNW path underneath a persistent upper high to its north (often a prescription for strengthening), and now two of the best models showing a FL hit, all bets are off as far as what next week will bring to the SE CONUS tropicalwise.

I was thinking 10% chance for development as of yesterday with only the CMC doing just that. Despite the CMC losing it, I'm increasing the chance to about 30% considering the current rather impressive structure along with the 12Z Euro and UKMET runs and the fact that the NHC now has it in its TWO.

[gatorcane]

Yeah definitely something to watch because you never know if a surprise is in store. If you go back to the NHC outlooks from when Joaquin was an invest last year, the initial NHC outlooks mentioned winds would be unfavorable for development with low percentage chances of development and we all know what happened. Not saying this will be another Joaquin but bears watching for the reasons Larry gave above.

[Nimbus]

CMC did show a ridge building north of where 93l should be.
With Hermine remnants still in the vicinity off the SE coast its possible some of the models are confused.

[floridasun78]

this getting alot weatherman in fl by surprise this was area was not even watch by nhc . but we here were we. beat nhc by watching this area

[floridasun78]

it look may take same track as tropical storm hermine if high build to it north let see shear and dry air as tropical storm Hermine saw when pass east Bahamas

[jlauderdal]

this getting alot weatherman in fl by surprise this was area was not even watch by nhc . but we here were we. beat nhc by watching this area

what did craig setzr say?

[floridasun78]

this getting alot weatherman in fl by surprise this was area was not even watch by nhc . but we here were we. beat nhc by watching this area

what did craig setzr say?

he off tonight new guy on their he say nice weekend ahead

[floridasun78]

is site having issue cannot get http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=130 hwrf other hurr models to work

[LarryWx]

this getting alot weatherman in fl by surprise this was area was not even watch by nhc . but we here were we. beat nhc by watching this area

what did craig setzr say?

he off tonight new guy on their he say nice weekend ahead

Florida,
It isn't the weekend that's the question. It is around Tue-Thu of next week to see if 93L affects FL. But for now, you don't need to worry. Just follow it over the next few days and see if it even develops or what the models are showing. Also, yes, the GFDL/HWRF on that page aren't showing any output for some reason.