ATL: NICOLE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

What was the last storm to make a direct hit on Bermuda? Was it Fabian? Between Matthew and Nicole the Atlantic has really racked up some ACE over the past two weeks.

Both Fay and Gonzalo made landfall on the island in the same week in 2014.

[Aric Dunn]

i doubt it will even have time to weaken before bermuda...

[CrazyC83]

i doubt it will even have time to weaken before bermuda...

I could see a bit more intensification, but hard to see it go above 125 kt or so.

[Ptarmigan]

Not really surprised that Nicole became a Category 4 hurricane. Matthew and Nicole are the October Surprises.

[bg1]

I decide to stop refreshing the NHC page and 5 minutes later we find out it pulled a Charley.

There have only been seven major hurricanes that
have passed within 40 n mi of Bermuda in the Atlantic hurricane
database, which goes back to 1851.

[jasons2k]

Pretty amazing. I don't recall seeing a storm look this good, at this latitude, so deep into October. I sure hope Bermuda is ready - I really feel for them.

[galaxy401]

If the large eye stays intact, the entire island of Bermuda could go under it.

[hurricanehunter69]

When's the last time there were two Cat 4 hurricanes in October?

I think for the Atlantic, this is the first time we've officially had two category 4 hurricanes in October. I don't see another instance of that occurring in HURDAT.

And we still have some potent and untapped TCHP in the NW Caribbean. Hard to believe that a third cat 4 is still possible before the end of the month....?

[EquusStorm]

I remember a lot of the recent storms that have hit, nearly hit, or skirted Bermuda... Fabian, Florence, Igor, Fay, Gonzalo, Joaquin, etc... and it seems like most of them were long-anticipated with plenty of warning, media activity, et cetera, but Nicole's threat just feels like it popped up in the middle of the night out of a clear sky without warning. Which, in all honesty, it over-performed and it WAS kind of unexpected.

This is the year of Matthew, yeh, but for me Nicole may always be the most surprising for me... though Alex was pretty surprising too, I suppose.

[Hammy]

It appears the radar beam is actually failing to make it through the heavy convection of the northern and eastern eye wall.

[RL3AO]

If the eye stays clear, there will be some amazing pictures during landfall. Not too often you get a clear eye over land during the daytime.

[abajan]

Whereas before it was clearly strengthening, as evidenced by the eye becoming less ragged, the opposite is now occurring:



I think the maximum sustained winds will be down to around 120 mph by the time the eyewall reaches Bermuda. However, I no longer think the eye will pass to their southeast but pretty much directly over them, in about 4 hours from now.

[arlwx]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NICOLE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 36A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016
200 AM AST THU OCT 13 2016

...POWERFUL NICOLE TO STRIKE BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.6N 66.2W
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the large eye of Hurricane Nicole was
located near latitude 30.6 North, longitude 66.2 West. Nicole is
moving toward the north-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn
toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected
later today. On the forecast track, the core of Nicole will pass
over or near Bermuda later this morning.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Nicole is an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is
expected overnight, and Nicole is forecast to be at major hurricane
strength when it moves near Bermuda. Some weakening is expected to
begin later on Thursday.

Nicole has a large area of hurricane-force winds that extend
outward up to 65 miles (100 km) from the center. Tropical-storm-
force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 950 mb (28.06 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to begin on Bermuda this
morning, with tropical storm conditions expected to begin soon.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 6 to 8 feet above normal tide levels in Bermuda. The surge
will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Nicole is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 4 to 8 inches over Bermuda through this evening.

SURF: Swells associated with Nicole will affect Bermuda during the
next few days, and will spread northward along the United States
east coast from the Carolinas northward through the next few days.
These swells will create dangerous surf conditions and rip currents.
Please refer to products being issued by your local weather office
for more information.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible on Bermuda overnight and
early Thursday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake/Avila

[arlwx]

HURRICANE NICOLE ADVISORY NUMBER 37
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016
500 AM AST THU OCT 13 2016

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE NICOLE AIMED AT BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.1N 65.8W
ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Nicole was located
near latitude 31.1 North, longitude 65.8 West. Nicole is moving
toward the north-northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn toward the
northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected later today.
On the forecast track, the core of Nicole will pass near Bermuda
later this morning.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Nicole is an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Although a gradual weakening
is forecast, Nicole is expected to be at major hurricane strength
when it moves near Bermuda later today.

Nicole is a large tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 65 miles (100 km) from the center and tropical-storm-
force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). Bermuda
International Airport has recently reported sustained winds of 43
mph (69 km/h) with a gust to 62 mph (100 km/h).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 952 mb (28.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to begin on Bermuda in a
few hours. Tropical storm conditions are already occurring on the
island.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 6 to 8 feet above normal tide levels in Bermuda. The surge
will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Nicole is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 5 to 8 inches over Bermuda through this evening.

SURF: Swells associated with Nicole will affect Bermuda during the
next few days, and will spread northward along the United States
east coast from the Carolinas northward through the next few days.
These swells will create dangerous surf conditions and rip currents.
Please refer to products being issued by your local weather office
for more information.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible on Bermuda today.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake/Avila

[arlwx]

HURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 37
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016
500 AM AST THU OCT 13 2016

Nicole continues to have an impressive satellite presentation with
a warm, well-defined eye and strong eyewall convection. The last
Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft measured a 700-mb wind
of 118 kt and a peak SFMR wind of 114 kt. These values are close
to the previous mission, and based on these data, the initial
intensity is kept at 115 kt for this advisory.

The initial motion estimate is 025/13. All of the guidance show the
core of Nicole very close to Bermuda later today, and only a small
westward adjustment was made to the first part of the forecast.
Nicole is beginning to accelerate generally northeastward ahead of a
mid-latitude trough moving across the northern United States.
However, this trough is forecast to move away from Nicole in a few
days, leaving the cyclone meandering over the North Atlantic well
southeast of Newfoundland. A ridge is then forecast to build over
the far northeastern Atlantic east of Nicole, which should help the
system resume a slow northeastward motion by day 5. The new forecast
is basically an update of the previous one and is very close to the
multi-model consensus.

Southwesterly shear is forecast by all of the global models to
increase rapidly today. In combination with a slow decrease in
SSTs, these factors will likely cause Nicole to lose strength
soon. The steady weakening trend is forecast to level off in about
36 hours as baroclinic forcing from a mid-latitude shortwave trough
should help maintain Nicole as a strong cyclone through rest of the
forecast period. The new NHC intensity forecast is a blend of the
previous forecast, the intensity consensus and the global model
fields beyond 48 hours. While no changes were made to the timing of
Nicole becoming post-tropical, there is considerable uncertainty on
exactly what structure Nicole will have in a few days time.
Regardless, all models forecast Nicole to be a large and powerful
cyclone for the next several days.

The forecast at days 3 through 5 has been coordinated with the NOAA
Ocean Prediction Center.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0900Z 31.1N 65.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 13/1800Z 32.7N 64.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 14/0600Z 34.8N 61.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 14/1800Z 36.4N 57.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 15/0600Z 37.7N 53.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 16/0600Z 39.0N 49.5W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 17/0600Z 38.5N 49.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 18/0600Z 40.5N 47.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Blake/Avila

[terstorm1012]

Cat 4! That escalated!

[tolakram]

visible loop

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=32&lon=-65&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=10&mapcolor=yellow

[abajan]

Cat 4! That escalated!

Just in case you didn't know, it's been Cat 4 since 11 PM.

[O Town]

That visible loop is scary looking. Looks like Pac-Man trying to eat the one little dot that's left on the board. Prayers for their safety.

[Cyclenall]

I remember a lot of the recent storms that have hit, nearly hit, or skirted Bermuda... Fabian, Florence, Igor, Fay, Gonzalo, Joaquin, etc... and it seems like most of them were long-anticipated with plenty of warning, media activity, et cetera, but Nicole's threat just feels like it popped up in the middle of the night out of a clear sky without warning. Which, in all honesty, it over-performed and it WAS kind of unexpected.

That's how it always is now, the long-anticipated and hyped up events end up under-performing and vice-versa. I remember on TV Nicole being mentioned with a "it is far from Bermuda" line but that was 5 or so days ago.

How this TC has panned out is very impressive, back when it was still a wave I thought it probably wouldn't amount to much. Best looking TC of the season too despite not being a CAT5 hurricane. What is the most shocking of all is that there is no other instance of 2 CAT4's occurring in October in the Atlantic since recording keeping began...that really amazes me . I thought for sure it happened not long ago . Same for Bermuda not being hit by any category 4 hurricanes but Nicole won't be the first (NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such.)