EPAC: BLAS - Post-Tropical
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- Yellow Evan
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E
Not sure about those pressures on those tidbit plots .
https://i.imgsafe.org/75945ce7dc.png
unsure atm which storm this actually is.
https://i.imgsafe.org/75945ce7dc.png
unsure atm which storm this actually is.
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- Kingarabian
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E
LLC still a bit broad but it's almost there. This thing could jump straight to TS status at this rate.
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RIP Kobe Bryant
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E
ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT FRI JUL 1 2016
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Two-E located a little more than 700 miles southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.
1. Shower activity associated with a broad area of low pressure located
about 600 miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico, is gradually becoming
better organized. Environmental conditions are favorable for a
tropical depression to form during the weekend while the system
moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, remaining well offshore of
the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
Forecaster Avila
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT FRI JUL 1 2016
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Two-E located a little more than 700 miles southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.
1. Shower activity associated with a broad area of low pressure located
about 600 miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico, is gradually becoming
better organized. Environmental conditions are favorable for a
tropical depression to form during the weekend while the system
moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, remaining well offshore of
the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
Forecaster Avila
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RIP Kobe Bryant
Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E
I know the NHC is the easiest agency to qualify a TS given they only need verification of 35kts in one quadrant unlike other basins. I don't see any cdo with this monsoon vort.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E
It's still early in its development, so it could pull a Lowell 2014 and be gigantic.
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- cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E
Almost there.
Shower activity associated with a broad area of low pressure located
about 600 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, continues
to become better organized. Environmental conditions are favorable
for a tropical depression to form later today or on Sunday while the
system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, remaining well
offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
about 600 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, continues
to become better organized. Environmental conditions are favorable
for a tropical depression to form later today or on Sunday while the
system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, remaining well
offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
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- weathaguyry
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E
Models at 06z are all over the place, ranging from a mid- cat.3 hurricane, to a weak TS
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My posts are only my opinions and NOT official forecasts. For official forecasts, consult the National Hurricane Center or the National Weather Service.
Irene 11', Sandy 12', Fay 20’, Isaias 20’, Elsa 21’, Henri 21’, Ida 21’
Irene 11', Sandy 12', Fay 20’, Isaias 20’, Elsa 21’, Henri 21’, Ida 21’
- cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E
12z Best Track: Shear will be favorable for it to do RI.
Location: 10.8°N 105.7°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1007 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1010 mb
Radius of Circulation: 200 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 70 NM
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1007 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1010 mb
Radius of Circulation: 200 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 70 NM
* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP942016 07/02/16 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 36 43 57 70 83 96 105 110 110 103
V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 36 43 57 70 83 96 105 110 110 103
V (KT) LGEM 25 26 28 30 34 43 53 66 81 93 101 99 87
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 3 3 7 8 8 10 9 10 4 7 7 9 9
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -6 -6 -5 -2 -3 0 1 -3 0 3 -1
SHEAR DIR 113 54 71 88 95 69 71 42 97 84 104 73 63
SST (C) 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.1 28.6 29.0 28.9 28.4 28.0 27.1 25.9
POT. INT. (KT) 163 163 163 164 163 157 151 154 153 149 145 134 123
200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.9 -52.6 -52.8 -53.0 -52.4 -52.8 -51.9 -52.1 -51.7 -51.9 -50.9 -51.3
200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7
TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 8 8 7 7 8 7 6 5 5
700-500 MB RH 82 79 77 76 73 68 70 72 71 70 64 64 62
MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 13 14 16 18 20 24 29 34 39 41 40
850 MB ENV VOR -7 -11 -12 -9 -9 -18 -9 4 12 32 42 63 72
200 MB DIV 78 71 89 70 46 38 39 76 94 81 37 95 31
700-850 TADV -2 0 0 0 1 1 0 -4 -3 -4 -5 -2 -3
LAND (KM) 858 858 861 871 905 1047 1229 1329 1400 1473 1572 1676 1730
LAT (DEG N) 10.8 11.1 11.5 12.0 12.4 12.9 12.7 12.6 13.0 13.9 14.5 15.0 16.2
LONG(DEG W) 105.7 106.4 107.2 108.2 109.4 112.1 114.5 116.4 118.2 120.3 122.6 124.5 126.2
STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 10 12 13 13 11 8 9 12 11 8 12
HEAT CONTENT 41 43 41 32 31 29 22 33 47 32 15 25 3
FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 611 (MEAN=586)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.3 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 17.8
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. 0. 6. 13. 21. 26. 29. 31. 32. 32.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 12. 13. 13. 13. 13.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 5. 8. 13. 18. 26. 32. 36. 36. 31.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 11. 18. 32. 45. 58. 71. 80. 85. 85. 78.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.8 105.7
** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942016 INVEST 07/02/16 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 3.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.2 40.3 to 144.5 0.94 5.5
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 37.6 0.0 to 75.9 0.50 3.7
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.3 38.9 to 2.1 0.48 3.3
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.75 4.7
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4
D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.56 1.8
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 36.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.85 0.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.1 to -1.7 0.34 -0.4
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.8
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 2.4 times sample mean (12.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
---------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48
---------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 31.1% 22.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 4.5% 29.0% 28.3% 8.0% 4.1% 28.8% 14.1%
Bayesian: 0.1% 11.3% 4.2% 1.1% 0.3% 1.0% 2.4%
Consensus: 1.6% 23.8% 18.4% 3.0% 1.5% 9.9% 5.5%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942016 INVEST 07/02/16 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP942016 07/02/16 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 36 43 57 70 83 96 105 110 110 103
V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 36 43 57 70 83 96 105 110 110 103
V (KT) LGEM 25 26 28 30 34 43 53 66 81 93 101 99 87
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 3 3 7 8 8 10 9 10 4 7 7 9 9
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -6 -6 -5 -2 -3 0 1 -3 0 3 -1
SHEAR DIR 113 54 71 88 95 69 71 42 97 84 104 73 63
SST (C) 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.1 28.6 29.0 28.9 28.4 28.0 27.1 25.9
POT. INT. (KT) 163 163 163 164 163 157 151 154 153 149 145 134 123
200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.9 -52.6 -52.8 -53.0 -52.4 -52.8 -51.9 -52.1 -51.7 -51.9 -50.9 -51.3
200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7
TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 8 8 7 7 8 7 6 5 5
700-500 MB RH 82 79 77 76 73 68 70 72 71 70 64 64 62
MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 13 14 16 18 20 24 29 34 39 41 40
850 MB ENV VOR -7 -11 -12 -9 -9 -18 -9 4 12 32 42 63 72
200 MB DIV 78 71 89 70 46 38 39 76 94 81 37 95 31
700-850 TADV -2 0 0 0 1 1 0 -4 -3 -4 -5 -2 -3
LAND (KM) 858 858 861 871 905 1047 1229 1329 1400 1473 1572 1676 1730
LAT (DEG N) 10.8 11.1 11.5 12.0 12.4 12.9 12.7 12.6 13.0 13.9 14.5 15.0 16.2
LONG(DEG W) 105.7 106.4 107.2 108.2 109.4 112.1 114.5 116.4 118.2 120.3 122.6 124.5 126.2
STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 10 12 13 13 11 8 9 12 11 8 12
HEAT CONTENT 41 43 41 32 31 29 22 33 47 32 15 25 3
FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 611 (MEAN=586)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.3 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 17.8
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. 0. 6. 13. 21. 26. 29. 31. 32. 32.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 12. 13. 13. 13. 13.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 5. 8. 13. 18. 26. 32. 36. 36. 31.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 11. 18. 32. 45. 58. 71. 80. 85. 85. 78.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.8 105.7
** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942016 INVEST 07/02/16 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 3.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.2 40.3 to 144.5 0.94 5.5
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 37.6 0.0 to 75.9 0.50 3.7
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.3 38.9 to 2.1 0.48 3.3
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.75 4.7
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4
D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.56 1.8
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 36.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.85 0.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.1 to -1.7 0.34 -0.4
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.8
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 2.4 times sample mean (12.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
---------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48
---------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 31.1% 22.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 4.5% 29.0% 28.3% 8.0% 4.1% 28.8% 14.1%
Bayesian: 0.1% 11.3% 4.2% 1.1% 0.3% 1.0% 2.4%
Consensus: 1.6% 23.8% 18.4% 3.0% 1.5% 9.9% 5.5%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942016 INVEST 07/02/16 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E
Yellow Evan wrote:...
0z GFS day five
Is that 929 storm Two-E or 94E?! The NHC expects Two-E to be only a depression then, and it seems too far west to be 94E...
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- Hurricaneman
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E
bg1 wrote:Yellow Evan wrote:...
0z GFS day five
Is that 929 storm Two-E or 94E?! The NHC expects Two-E to be only a depression then, and it seems too far west to be 94E...
This one
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- Yellow Evan
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E
bg1 wrote:Yellow Evan wrote:...
0z GFS day five
Is that 929 storm Two-E or 94E?! The NHC expects Two-E to be only a depression then, and it seems too far west to be 94E...
94E, as its expected to start moving quickly over the next several days.
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- Yellow Evan
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- cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SAT JUL 2 2016
Shower activity associated with a broad area of low pressure located
about 600 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, continues
to become better organized. A tropical depression is likely to form
later today or on Sunday while the system moves west-northwestward
at about 10 mph, remaining well offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SAT JUL 2 2016
Shower activity associated with a broad area of low pressure located
about 600 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, continues
to become better organized. A tropical depression is likely to form
later today or on Sunday while the system moves west-northwestward
at about 10 mph, remaining well offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E
Almost all the convection is located on the southern semicricle where there appears to be a fragmented rainband.
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- Yellow Evan
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E
Code: Select all
* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP942016 07/02/16 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 32 37 43 53 68 82 96 103 108 109 104
V (KT) LAND 25 27 32 37 43 53 68 82 96 103 108 109 104
V (KT) LGEM 25 26 28 30 33 41 51 63 77 90 97 97 89
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 4 8 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 7 9
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -6 -7 -6 -2 0 -2 1 0 -3 -2 0 2
SHEAR DIR 79 74 78 100 95 60 55 47 80 81 107 71 62
SST (C) 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.2 28.6 28.9 28.7 28.4 27.7 26.8 26.0
POT. INT. (KT) 163 162 163 163 162 157 151 154 152 149 141 131 123
200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.7 -53.0 -53.0 -52.7 -52.5 -52.7 -52.2 -52.0 -52.2 -51.8 -51.5 -51.0
200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6
TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 8 8 7 8 7 6 6 5 5
700-500 MB RH 79 76 76 75 71 71 74 73 71 70 68 65 69
MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 13 14 16 17 20 24 30 34 39 41 42
850 MB ENV VOR -10 -9 -6 -7 -7 -7 -2 9 14 31 45 71 79
200 MB DIV 89 98 81 48 34 26 70 91 102 82 48 70 71
700-850 TADV 0 0 0 2 5 0 0 -4 -6 -6 -6 -2 -2
LAND (KM) 894 909 929 950 969 1071 1210 1283 1404 1507 1592 1678 1784
LAT (DEG N) 10.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 106.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 9 10 11 12 11 11 11 10 9 8
HEAT CONTENT 42 42 38 34 34 31 21 29 48 23 19 20 5
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 637 (MEAN=586)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.7 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 13.1
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 6. 13. 21. 26. 29. 31. 32. 31.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 13. 14. 14. 13. 13.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 17. 25. 31. 35. 36. 33.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 18. 28. 43. 57. 71. 79. 83. 84. 79.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.7 106.3
** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942016 INVEST 07/02/16 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.9
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.6 40.3 to 144.5 0.93 5.4
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 38.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.50 3.6
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.7 38.9 to 2.1 0.49 3.3
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.62 3.8
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4
D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.55 1.8
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 45.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.84 0.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.1 to -1.7 0.22 -0.3
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.7
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 2.3 times sample mean (12.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
---------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48
---------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 29.7% 21.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 2.8% 24.4% 16.5% 4.8% 2.3% 17.4% 9.2%
Bayesian: 0.1% 9.3% 4.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.6% 0.9%
Consensus: 1.0% 21.1% 14.1% 1.8% 0.8% 6.0% 3.4%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942016 INVEST 07/02/16 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
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- Yellow Evan
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E
ECMWF day 10 doesn't recurve the system and instead slowly deepens it as it moves west.
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- gatorcane
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E
Interesting ECMWF run Yellow Evan, maybe Hawaii could be in play afterall with one of these systems?
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- Yellow Evan
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E
gatorcane wrote:Interesting ECMWF run Yellow Evan, maybe Hawaii could be in play afterall with one of these systems?
There appears to be a ridge over the Hawaiian islands so I doubt it.
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