ATL: GASTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Blown Away]

12z GFS @216 Hours... 90L is a Cat 5 910mb monster SE of Bermuda...

[cycloneye]

911 mbs at truncation (240 hours)

[p1nheadlarry]

911 mbs at truncation (240 hours)

Looks like a closer call to the east coast but stalls and heads almost due east for 99L at least. 90L's environment may very well be better than 99L's, especially if it progresses better today. Not hanging anything on the Generally Flip-Flops Storms model just yet.

[gatorcane]

Wow models are all over this one. Looks to be a potential big ACE pumper for the Atlantic basin and could make a run at MAJOR hurricane status given model trends. Good thing about this is that nobody looks to be in its path at least from what the models are showing. Of course still too early to say it will be a fish and impact nobody.

[cycloneye]

Cloudiness and thunderstorms located over the far eastern Atlantic
a few hundred miles southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands are
associated with a low pressure area and tropical wave. Environmental
conditions are conducive for development, and a tropical depression
is likely to form during the next day or two while the system moves
westward and then northwestward over the eastern tropical Atlantic
Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

[cycloneye]

12z ECMWF blows this. I say Bermuda has to watch it.

[CrazyC83]

Below 910mb near Bermuda - that doesn't sound very realistic. While SST's there certainly can support tropical storm and hurricanes, I don't think they are high enough to support a Cat 5 in that region. I don't think there has ever been a Cat 5 north of 25N in the Atlantic and east of the Gulf Stream.

[CrazyC83]

The whole setup seems quite reminiscent of Emily in 1993 and perhaps Felix in 1995.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track:

AL, 90, 2016082118, , BEST, 0, 117N, 206W, 20, 1008, LO

[tolakram]

saved loop

[chaser1]

Thing looks like it's gonna be a monster!

[cycloneye]

Another GFS run going bonkers with 90L since 72 hours.At 168 hours is down to 939 mbs while it moves slowly NW after it goes west for a while around 25n.

[cycloneye]

Lowest pressure is 911 mbs while it moves NNE well east of Bermuda.

[Hammy]

Lowest pressure is 911 mbs while it moves NNE well east of Bermuda.

I know the models sometimes have difficulty as latitude increases, but how genuinely likely is it that this (or something) similar plays out, as far as this being one of the strongest Cape Verde Atlantic systems in quite some time?

[tolakram]

I would say chances are very slim. It's telling us major is possible, perhaps, but strength is bad enough in the short term much less long term.

[cycloneye]

Thing looks like it's gonna be a monster!

All signs from all the models point to having a big ACE producer as it looks like environmental conditions will be good.

[Hammy]

The appearance kind of reminds me of Edouard when it came off in 1996.

[cycloneye]

Intereting that now track is westnorthwest instead of northwest.

Shower and thunderstorm activity continues to show signs of
organization in association with a tropical wave and an area of low
pressure located about 250 miles south-southeast of the southern
Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the
next day or two while the system moves westward to west-
northwestward at 15 to 20 mph over the eastern tropical Atlantic
Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

[CrazyC83]

Lowest pressure is 911 mbs while it moves NNE well east of Bermuda.

I know the models sometimes have difficulty as latitude increases, but how genuinely likely is it that this (or something) similar plays out, as far as this being one of the strongest Cape Verde Atlantic systems in quite some time?

I would think the strongest that region can normally support is a low to mid Cat 4.

[cycloneye]

Image floater from Ramsdis shows a developing system on the virge of being a Tropical Depression.Looks like it will be a large system and of course as mentioned before,it will be a fun system to be tracking thru the open waters of the Atlantic.Hopefully it stays away from Bermuda.

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