EPAC: LESTER - Post-Tropical

[Kingarabian]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 27 AUG 2016 Time : 210000 UTC
Lat : 17:51:00 N Lon : 119:32:50 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.5 / 961.2mb/102.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.5 5.7 5.7

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 17 km

Center Temp : +12.9C Cloud Region Temp : -60.0C

Scene Type : EYE

[Yellow Evan]

Likely T5.5 now, but if this can complete the B ring, T6.0 will be granted.

[Kingarabian]

Likely T5.5 now, but if this can complete the B ring, T6.0 will be granted.

Almost there:

[Ntxw]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 27 AUG 2016 Time : 213000 UTC
Lat : 17:57:07 N Lon : 119:38:36 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.5 / 961.2mb/102.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.5 5.8 5.8

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 17 km

Center Temp : +11.8C Cloud Region Temp : -60.9C

Scene Type : EYE

[Kingarabian]

3 hour old AMSR2 pass shows a nearly closed eyewall. But based on recent infrared imagery (AVN to be exact), convection seems to be the most thick on the wsw quad of the storm. So I'm going to go bet that the eyewall is completely closed and that we may have a system closing in on Cat. 4 status.

[Ntxw]

http://i.imgur.com/5nS5jGf.jpg

3 hour old AMSR2 pass shows a nearly closed eyewall. But based on recent infrared imagery (AVN to be exact), convection seems to be the most thick on the wsw quad of the storm. So I'm going to go bet that the eyewall is completely closed and that we may have a system closing in on Cat. 4 status.

Cat 4 is not out of reach.

[Kingarabian]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 27 AUG 2016 Time : 223000 UTC
Lat : 17:57:28 N Lon : 119:56:19 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.7 / 956.9mb/107.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.7 5.9 5.9

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 15 km

Center Temp : +11.3C Cloud Region Temp : -62.0C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

[Kingarabian]

Ahh still open to the SW/SSW.

[Yellow Evan]

Looking a little less organized in most recent frame or two.

[Kingarabian]

TXPZ23 KNES 280025
TCSENP

A. 13E (LESTER)

B. 28/0000Z

C. 18.0N

D. 120.2W

E. ONE/GOES-W

F. T5.0/5.0/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...AN OW EYE SURROUNDED BY LG YIELDS A 0.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT. THE
EYE IS EMBEDDED IN LG RESULTING IN AN E# OF 5.0 FOR A DT OF 5.0. THE
MET AND PT AGREE. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...MICHAEL

5.0 from SAB... Hopefully TAFB goes with 5.5.

[Yellow Evan]

EP, 13, 2016082800, , BEST, 0, 180N, 1202W, 95, 969, HU, 34, NEQ, 90, 70, 50, 80, 1011, 200, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, LESTER, D,

[CrazyC83]

EP, 13, 2016082800, , BEST, 0, 180N, 1202W, 95, 969, HU, 34, NEQ, 90, 70, 50, 80, 1011, 200, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, LESTER, D,

Probably a blend of the ADT and subjective data. The open eyewall suggests it might not be as strong as thought, although a case could still be made for 100 kt.

[Kingarabian]

No signs of an erc per microwave. Looks like the dry air is affecting it.

[hurricanes1234]

What's going on here? Eye disappeared?

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132016
800 PM PDT SAT AUG 27 2016

Lester has gone through some impressive changes this evening. The
well-developed eye has disappeared during the past couple of hours
on satellite images, with decreasing convection noted in the eastern
eyewall. A blend of the Dvorak estimates from all agencies
supported increasing the winds to 95 kt at the synoptic time, but
I have elected to show an initial wind speed of 90 kt given the
recent degradation on satellite.

The hurricane should be in a low-shear, marginal-moisture
environment for the next several days, with only gradually
decreasing water temperatures expected as Lester moves nearly
parallel to the typical eastern Pacific SST gradient. Most of the
guidance suggest that Lester's intensity will peak within the next
24 hours, then slowly fall. This is a trickier forecast than it
seems because the forecast environmental conditions are reminiscent
of those necessary for an annular hurricane, which would likely keep
Lester stronger than much of the guidance. At this point, given
the recent satellite trends, the official intensity prediction is
kept the same as the previous one, a bit higher than the intensity
consensus.

The initial motion estimate remains 270/11. A strong subtropical
ridge to the north of Lester should steer the cyclone on a westward
course for at least the next 3 to 4 days. After that time,
uncertainties increase with both the strength of the ridge and
any potential binary interaction with Madeline. There have been
very little changes to the overall guidance suite, and the new NHC
track forecast is near the previous one, nudged a bit to the west
at longer ranges.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0300Z 18.0N 120.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 28/1200Z 18.1N 122.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 29/0000Z 18.2N 125.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 29/1200Z 18.3N 128.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 30/0000Z 18.4N 131.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 31/0000Z 18.6N 136.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 01/0000Z 18.7N 140.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 02/0000Z 19.5N 145.5W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

[hurricanes1234]

Good call to keep it at 90 knots in spite of 95 knots on the 0z best track.

It doesn't look nearly as good as earlier today with the weakened convection to the north.

[Yellow Evan]

Most storms like this go through a phase where it looks bad and the eye closes up. Happened to both Iselle and Darby.

[hurricanes1234]

Most storms like this go through a phase where it looks bad and the eye closes up. Happened to both Iselle and Darby.

Hopefully it can fight the dry air while other conditions permit. Otherwise, it could go:

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132016
200 AM PDT SUN AUG 28 2016

Lester's cloud pattern is not as well organized as it was late
yesterday. The distribution of deep convection within the
hurricane's central dense overcast has become asymmetric and an
eye is no longer visible. Despite Lester's degraded appearance in
conventional satellite imagery, microwave data from several hours
ago suggested that Lester was generally maintaining its inner-core
structure. Dvorak T-numbers have decreased since the last advisory.
A blend of Final T- and CI-numbers from both satellite agencies
supports lowering the initial intensity estimate to 85 kt.

The initial motion estimate is 270/12. A strong subtropical ridge
should steer Lester just north of due-west for the next 3 to 4 days.
Longer term, uncertainty regarding the strength of the subtropical
ridge north of Lester and any potential binary interaction with
Madeline come into play. This uncertainty seems to be less than in
previous cycles, however, with the GFS and ECMWF now much closer at
96 and 120 hours. The new NHC track is close to a blend of these two
models throughout the forecast period and is just a bit to the
south of the previous forecast at those times.

It is not clear what interrupted Lester's intensification.
Regardless, Lester should be in a low-shear, marginally moist
environment and over only gradually decreasing sea surface
temperatures during the next few days. Assuming that the hurricane
continues to retain its inner-core structure, this could allow
Lester to re-intensify some during the next 12 to 24 hours before it
encounters even drier mid-level air. However, none of the intensity
guidance shows this possibility, and instead shows slow weakening
for the remainder of the forecast period. The intensity forecast is
a challenging one, and is of overall low confidence. It shows
little change in strength in the short term and is slightly above
the consensus aids, but is then near the multi-model consensus after
that.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0900Z 17.9N 122.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 17.9N 124.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 29/0600Z 18.1N 126.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 29/1800Z 18.2N 129.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 30/0600Z 18.4N 132.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 31/0600Z 18.4N 137.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 01/0600Z 18.6N 142.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 02/0600Z 19.4N 147.1W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

[Blinhart]

Will either Lester or Madeline actually hit Hawaii as anything more than a TS? Should bring them some great surf but not much more than that.