ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

[StormTracker]

Similar to recent runs of the model consensus, the 12Z GFS has this moving at ~25 mph this THU and FRI westbound in the MDR, which was how fast Allen was moving there in 1980.

And if that's the case, we know systems normally moving that fast don't consolidate quickly, which means it will probably go pretty far west before it can organize(if it does at all).

[StormTracker]

Out in fantasyland the 12Z GFS has this just sit and spin in the Bahamas for days.

What system or storm did that last season, or was it the season before, that did the "sit & spin" and ravaged the Bahamas for a couple of days?

Joaquin,in October 2015.

Yeah that guy...

[Blown Away]

What system or storm did that last season, or was it the season before, that did the "sit & spin" and ravaged the Bahamas for a couple of days?

Joaquin,in October 2015.

Yeah that guy...

Around a week ago the GFS had 99L/TD9 just sitting around for days near Florida... That kinda happened...

[KWT]

Yeah it did slow down but track wise the GFS was decently too far east to start with. A fair few recurves/close shaves.

[SouthFLTropics]

12z Euro through 48 hours

[SouthFLTropics]

12z Euro...72 hours

[SouthFLTropics]

12z Euro...96 Hours

[SouthFLTropics]

12z Euro 120 Hours...Coming in much weaker than the 12z from 24 hours ago...

[TheStormExpert]

About the same actually.

[SouthFLTropics]

12z Euro...

[WeatherEmperor]

:uarrow: About the same actually.

You are correct. I was wrong. Edited my post. Sorry.

[SouthFLTropics]

:uarrow: About the same actually.

You're right...I'm making the mistake of comparing to yesterday's 12z...My bad!!!

[SouthFLTropics]

This 12z Euro feels like I'm watching 99L all over again. Regardless, there is a big weakness in the ridge left by, ironically 99L/TD9/????, that would send anything of significance from 92L northward.

[SouthFLTropics]

SE Bahamas, hour 168...Looks to be trying to organize. Check out 99L/TD9/??? taking the left hook into Long Island.

[SouthFLTropics]

99L Part Deux...Euro is not impressed...

[gatorcane]

99L Part Deux...Euro is not impressed...
http://i68.tinypic.com/25zl4xi.png

I think it is pretty clear the 9KM resolution or whatever they did to the EURO this year has caused serious issues with the reliability of this model as far as tropical forecasting is concerned, not to mention we are in the long-range.

Take TD9 as an example, how does it suddenly blow it up to a hurricane this run in the Gulf when it had something so much weaker in the 00Z run? The EURO is not the same as it once was.

[TheStormExpert]

Is it me or did conditions seem more favorable throughout the Atlantic last season?

On a side note the back and forth with these models is getting downright old!

[SouthFLTropics]

99L Part Deux...Euro is not impressed...
http://i68.tinypic.com/25zl4xi.png

I think it is pretty clear the 9KM resolution or whatever they did to the EURO this year has caused serious issues with the reliability of this model as far as tropical forecasting is concerned, not to mention we are in the long-range.

Take TD9 as an example, how does it suddenly blow it up to a hurricane this run in the Gulf when it had something so much weaker in the 00Z run? The EURO is not the same as it once was.

Not sure if it's the resolution or not...Either way, we are in fantasyland right now at 9 days out. This will change many times over. The inconsistency between the models this year is troubling though. I don't recall it being like this in years past, especially with the Euro.

[BigB0882]

Not that I am trusting the Euro at the moment but it does not appear to be feeling any weakness left behind by TD9. Is that because the Euro keeps this very weak?

[TheStormExpert]

Kills it over western Cuba @216hrs.