ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[WilmingtonSandbar]

:uarrow: interesting way to put it, do you have any insight as to strength when Matt gets to Carolinas?

I try not to guess, and base my posts on information culled from the models and various reports. Right now, there just isn't enough info to make that call. It is going to depend on land interaction with Florida tonight and tomorrow.

[SouthernBreeze]

Thanks, pretty much my thoughts too. Will see what Euro says, but probably just have to resign to wait & see mode

[SouthernBreeze]

The most accurate model there is - the wait & see model

[Hammy]

Matthew doesn't retain tropical characteristics on latest GFS run.

[seahawkjd]

Matthew doesn't retain tropical characteristics on latest GFS run.

It also diverges some again from the NHC forcast with the turn south taking place quite a bit further out. At least I think thats what I'm seeing, I really stayed up too late last night.

[one wolf]

Okay so we see all this banter of strengthening trough, memories of Floyd, and even some newbie "guaranteeing" OBX impact. And yet NHC sticks with their guns in the 5am forecast. In Carteret County, we wring our hands but don't know what to do... should we prepare for a full hurricane and floodwaters or not?

[Ken711]

Okay so we see all this banter of strengthening trough, memories of Floyd, and even some newbie "guaranteeing" OBX impact. And yet NHC sticks with their guns in the 5am forecast. In Carteret County, we wring our hands but don't know what to do... should we prepare for a full hurricane and floodwaters or not?

NHC always knows best.

[Vdogg]

Okay so we see all this banter of strengthening trough, memories of Floyd, and even some newbie "guaranteeing" OBX impact. And yet NHC sticks with their guns in the 5am forecast. In Carteret County, we wring our hands but don't know what to do... should we prepare for a full hurricane and floodwaters or not?

You're likely to see TS conditions and heavy rain even with the NHC's current track. You're simply closer to the storm and that's what mets are calling for "now" with no track changes. The 6z gfs shows at least this much. If you're prone to tidal flooding you don't have to be on top of the storm for that to have an impact. You know your area better than we do so act accordingly.

[Vdogg]

Wow, that cold front out west is really starting to dig now.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecwv.html

[Vdogg]

Okay so we see all this banter of strengthening trough, memories of Floyd, and even some newbie "guaranteeing" OBX impact. And yet NHC sticks with their guns in the 5am forecast. In Carteret County, we wring our hands but don't know what to do... should we prepare for a full hurricane and floodwaters or not?

https://www.facebook.com/JeffLawsonWvec ... 37610589:0

[tolakram]

0Z ECMWF on WB full res this just misses the coast near Charleston.

[tolakram]

6z GFS

[invest man]

From Carteret County area. Forecast for at least TS force winds as far north as OBX. I font understand why at least TS watch not extened to Hatteras! Anyone have an idea?

[Vdogg]

From Carteret County area. Forecast for at least TS force winds as far north as OBX. I font understand why at least TS watch not extened to Hatteras! Anyone have an idea?

We should probably take this to the discussion thread. My guess is with the multiple shifts in the track even over the past day, NHC wants to sure of the path before pulling the trigger on anymore warnings.

[tolakram]

HRRR now keeps Matthew offshore after numerous runs last night showing landfall.

[Vdogg]

http://wavy.com/blog/2016/10/07/blog-ma ... s-weekend/
"This was the track from this morning, but the models have been trending more northward. They take it a little closer to Hatteras by Sunday. So I think the track will shift a little northward later today. This does have some impacts on our forecast. The wind shouldn’t be bad here on Saturday. However, the wind will probably be pretty strong across the region by Sunday morning. I think we could see some gusts above 60mph down towards Hatteras. Here is the wind forecast for that time."



I will be reposting this in the discussion thread.

[Vdogg]

NHC official track has shifted north. TS watches or warnings now issued for the entire North Carolina coast.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... l#contents

[GlennOBX]

NHC official track has shifted north. TS watches or warnings now issued for the entire North Carolina coast.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... l#contents

The NC coast is under a TS warning from Dare County to the SC border. Not a watch. Also, Currituck County, the northeasternmost county in NC, is not yet included in the TS warning.

[Sanibel]

Edit: Wrong thread.

[Vdogg]

NHC official track has shifted north. TS watches or warnings now issued for the entire North Carolina coast.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... l#contents

The NC coast is under a TS warning from Dare County to the SC border. Not a watch. Also, Currituck County, the northeasternmost county in NC, is not yet included in the TS warning.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... l#contents

You're right, that's a warning for most of NC coast. Weird that they didn't extend a watch from Currituck up to Hampton Roads, perhaps they will later today. Actually, the southern NC coast is under a Hurricane Warning.