ATL: GASTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Outside of some increased shear around day 5 as the cyclone interacts with an upper-level low, things look smooth sailing. I expect a Category 4 hurricane at peak.

[p1nheadlarry]

Outside of some increased shear around day 5 as the cyclone interacts with an upper-level low, things look smooth sailing. I expect a Category 4 hurricane at peak.

SAL seems high for the next 24 hours ahead of it, but it's still embedded with that ITCZ moisture. It actually looks like a promising invest . Should be the first major of the season.

[Hammy]

Outside of some increased shear around day 5 as the cyclone interacts with an upper-level low, things look smooth sailing. I expect a Category 4 hurricane at peak.

SAL seems high for the next 24 hours ahead of it, but it's still embedded with that ITCZ moisture. It actually looks like a promising invest . Should be the first major of the season.

Would the SAL explain why this takes about 24-36 hours to get going?

[p1nheadlarry]

Outside of some increased shear around day 5 as the cyclone interacts with an upper-level low, things look smooth sailing. I expect a Category 4 hurricane at peak.

SAL seems high for the next 24 hours ahead of it, but it's still embedded with that ITCZ moisture. It actually looks like a promising invest . Should be the first major of the season.

Would the SAL explain why this takes about 24-36 hours to get going?

In my humble opinion, I'd say so. It's going to have to deal with that possibility early on in its life. Not much around it. If you look at the NASA forecast, 90L plows right on through. Might at least modulate any quick development.

[Blown Away]

Seems the NHC slowed 90L's track down?

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track:

Location: 11.7°N 22.7°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1008 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1011 mb
Radius of Circulation: 180 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 80 NM

[cycloneye]

Bullish models.

[TheStormExpert]

00z Model Guidance.





18z GEFS Ensembles.

[pgoss11]

I wonder why some of the Model Guidance on 90L has it bending towards the west at the end of the run?

[TheStormExpert]

I wonder why some of the Model Guidance on 90L has it bending towards the west at the end of the run?

Building ridge potentially stalling or slowing it down and sending it west for a little while before heading out to sea.

[p1nheadlarry]

I wonder why some of the Model Guidance on 90L has it bending towards the west at the end of the run?

Not showing any weakness in the building high it seems. Earlier runs had that, and 90L made for the exits. Now it doesn't see it until it nears the maritimes.

[Kazmit]

Seems the NHC slowed 90L's track down?

The development area is smaller... I wonder why?

[TheStormExpert]

Seems the NHC slowed 90L's track down?

The development area is smaller... I wonder why?

Because it is expected to become a tropical cyclone soon.

[Gustywind]

From SSD, first appearence...

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
22/0000 UTC 11.7N 22.5W T1.0/1.0 90L

[Hammy]

GFS has a hurricane in 72 hours and a major by 144.

[Hammy]

Looks like it could be a depression as early as tomorrow if it keeps organizing like it is.

[USTropics]

Up to 90%, NHC expects it to be classified as a TD later today:

2. Thunderstorm activity continues to show signs of organization in
association with a tropical wave and a large area of low pressure
located almost 300 miles south of the southern Cabo Verde Islands.
Environmental conditions are conducive for development, and a
tropical depression is likely to form later today while the system
moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph over the
eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

Forecaster Stewart

[Siker]

Latest Euro peaks this at 933mb.

[chaser1]

GFS has a hurricane in 72 hours and a major by 144.

Interestingly the track guidance cluster are distinctly farther south and west than the EURO at 72 hours. If verifying, this would seem to imply a change in the EURO downstream steering impact and solution for 99L

[Rail Dawg]

I keep my sources anon but it will be classified TD shortly with TS following quickly.

Shear the only minor concern and then major storm status.

Some smart people here do as well as NHC (and NHC knows it lol!!)