EPAC: LESTER - Post-Tropical

[hurricanes1234]

Lester likely peaked yesterday afternoon when its eye was most distinct. I no longer expect a major from it.

[Ntxw]

Lester has some deep convection again but the eye has been having problems since late yesterday

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132016
800 AM PDT SUN AUG 28 2016

The cloud pattern has continued to deteriorate and the eye is no
longer observed on conventional imagery, but it is hidden under the
cirrus canopy as revealed by a 1206 UTC SSMIS pass. The convection
continues to be concentrated near the center, and the outflow is
fair. Dvorak objective numbers from CIMMS and estimates
from TAFB and SAB support a lower intensity of 75 kt.

There are no obvious reasons why Lester should continue to weaken.
The environment, at least for the next few days, does not appear to
be detrimental for Lester to intensify, other than perhaps a small
decrease in the SSTs. Given these factors, the NHC forecast calls
for no change in intensity during the next 4 days with some
weakening thereafter when Lester eventually encounters drier air.
This forecast is consistent with the intensity consensus model.

Lester is moving toward the west or 270 degrees at 11 kt. The track
forecast is a little more straightforward since the hurricane is
embedded within a deep layer of easterly flow associated with a
persistent subtropical ridge across the Pacific. By the end of
the forecast period, Lester will likely turn west-northwest toward
a weakness inf the ridge. Track guidance is tightly packed, and the
NHC forecast is very close to the multi-model consensus, and does
not deviate much from the previous NHC prediction

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1500Z 18.1N 123.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 18.2N 125.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 29/1200Z 18.3N 128.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 30/0000Z 18.5N 131.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 30/1200Z 18.5N 134.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 31/1200Z 18.5N 138.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 01/1200Z 18.5N 143.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 02/1200Z 19.5N 148.0W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

NNNN

[Yellow Evan]

Not convinced this has peaked, but is really lacking cold cloud tops on the northern semicircle.

[galaxy401]

Could Lester be a long live storm considering it's going to say south for awhile?

[Yellow Evan]

Code: Select all

                    * EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                    * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  LESTER      EP132016  08/28/16  18 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    75    73    72    72    71    70    70    69    67    65    63    60    60
V (KT) LAND       75    73    72    72    71    70    70    69    67    65    63    60    60
V (KT) LGEM       75    72    70    70    70    69    69    70    70    70    69    68    65
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)         1     3     7    12    13    13     8     9     9     5     1     6    13
SHEAR ADJ (KT)     0    -1    -1    -3    -3    -4    -3    -4    -4    -1     4     4     3
SHEAR DIR        264    60    61    68    70    79    77   125   113   162   220   240   245
SST (C)         27.3  27.4  27.3  26.8  26.3  26.3  27.1  26.5  26.2  26.6  27.0  26.7  26.1
POT. INT. (KT)   138   139   138   133   128   128   136   129   126   130   134   132   126
200 MB T (C)   -52.8 -52.3 -52.6 -52.9 -52.8 -52.3 -52.5 -51.9 -52.4 -52.0 -52.3 -52.0 -52.3
200 MB VXT (C)   0.6   0.6   0.8   1.0   0.9   0.9   0.9   0.9   0.9   0.7   0.8   0.7   0.9
TH_E DEV (C)       6     6     6     5     5     5     6     6     6     6     6     7     6
700-500 MB RH     44    43    39    40    39    38    41    39    40    40    44    48    52
MODEL VTX (KT)    22    20    20    23    23    24    24    25    25    25    25    24    24
850 MB ENV VOR    59    55    53    54    55    59    61    69    75    79    73    67    55
200 MB DIV        11    14    13     5    19     8    -8     5     1    19    11     8     0
700-850 TADV      10     5    -2    -6    -2    -2    -3     0     1     0     4     4    11
LAND (KM)       1441  1538  1641  1739  1842  2074  2076  1825  1603  1383  1155   886   576
LAT (DEG N)     17.9  17.9  17.9  18.0  18.1  18.2  18.2  18.2  18.3  18.3  18.2  18.7  19.8
LONG(DEG W)    124.1 125.5 126.9 128.3 129.6 132.4 135.1 137.5 139.6 141.7 143.9 146.4 149.3
STM SPEED (KT)    13    13    13    13    13    13    12    10    10    10    11    13    14
HEAT CONTENT       7     6     9    15    11     3    11    14     2     4    10     2     4

  FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12      CX,CY: -11/  0
  T-12 MAX WIND:  85            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  547  (MEAN=586)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:   9.7 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  87.0 (MEAN=65.0)
  PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR):            2.2

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.   1.   1.   0.  -3.  -6.  -9. -12. -14. -15. -16. -17.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   2.   3.   4.   5.   7.   7.   6.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.  -1.  -2.
  PERSISTENCE           -3.  -4.  -5.  -5.  -4.  -3.  -2.  -1.   0.   0.   1.   2.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   1.   1.   1.   0.   1.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -5.  -6.  -6.  -6.  -6.
  MODEL VTX TENDENCY    -1.  -1.   1.   1.   2.   3.   4.   4.   4.   4.   2.   2.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -2.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   2.   2.   3.   3.
  GOES PREDICTORS        1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.   0.   0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE          -2.  -3.  -3.  -4.  -5.  -5.  -6.  -8. -10. -12. -15. -15.

                CURRENT MAX WIND (KT):   75. LAT, LON:   17.9   124.1

      ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132016 LESTER     08/28/16  18 UTC **
 (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
 
     Predictor             Value   RI Predictor Range  Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):   -10.0     -22.0  to   38.5       0.20         999.0
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   :    60.3      40.3  to  144.5       0.19         999.0
 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) :     9.6       0.0  to   75.9       0.13         999.0
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :     9.7      38.9  to    2.1       0.79         999.0
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :     7.3      18.9  to    1.4       0.66         999.0
 MAXIMUM WIND (kt)     :    75.0      22.5  to  132.0       0.77         999.0
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :    12.4     -11.0  to  135.3       0.16         999.0
 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2):   648.4     638.0  to  -68.2       0.00           0.0
 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP  :    -0.1       2.1  to   -1.7       0.59         999.0
 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm:    44.2      81.4  to    0.0       0.46         999.0
 
 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold=   9% is   1.5 times sample mean ( 6.3%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  18% is   1.4 times sample mean (12.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold=   9% is   1.2 times sample mean ( 7.1%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%)
 
 Matrix of RI probabilities
 ---------------------------------------------------------------------
  RI (kt / h)  | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48
 ---------------------------------------------------------------------
   SHIPS-RII:     9.3%   18.4%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    8.7%    0.0%
    Logistic:     1.3%    1.1%    0.8%    0.6%    0.3%    0.1%    0.0%
    Bayesian:     0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%
   Consensus:     3.5%    6.5%    0.3%    0.2%    0.1%    2.9%    0.0%

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132016
200 PM PDT SUN AUG 28 2016

The cloud pattern has not changed very much during the day and the
convection has been fluctuating in intensity. Occasionally, an eye
feature has been observed on conventional imagery. Dvorak estimates,
both objective and subjective, have not changed since this morning
and still support an initial intensity of 75 kt.

The shear environment appears to be favorable for Lester to
intensify, but SSTs along the hurricane track are decreasing
slightly. Given these two opposing factors, the NHC forecast
calls for no change in intensity during the next 5 days. This
forecast follows very closely the intensity consensus model.

Lester is moving westward or 270 degrees at 11 kt. The hurricane is
embedded within a deep layer of easterly flow on the south side of a
persistent subtropical ridge across the Pacific. Given the well
established steering flow, the track guidance continues to be
tightly packed, and this increases the confidence in the future
motion of the hurricane. The NHC forecast is very similar to the
previous one and is basically on top of the multi-model consensus
TVCN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/2100Z 17.8N 124.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 17.8N 126.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 29/1800Z 18.0N 129.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 30/0600Z 18.0N 132.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 30/1800Z 18.0N 134.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 31/1800Z 18.0N 139.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 01/1800Z 18.5N 143.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 02/1800Z 19.5N 148.0W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

[Kingarabian]

[bob rulz]

Could Lester be a long live storm considering it's going to say south for awhile?

I don't know what the models are saying, but it would be very surprising if it stayed along this same latitude across the Pacific. It would be awesome though if it did - Ioke was one of my favorite tropical cyclones to observe, and I'm sure John back in 1994 was a wonder to watch, too. Both perfect storms that stayed well out at sea for a long period of time and had no significant effects on land. Both of those were significantly lower in latitude, though. I think a storm would have a hard time making it that far at this latitude without encountering a trough.

[Kingarabian]

Evident eye. Strengthening once again.

[Yellow Evan]

T5.0 again.

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132016
800 PM PDT SUN AUG 28 2016

After appearing steady state throughout the day, the cloud pattern
of Lester has become a little better organized during the past
couple of hours with an eye apparent once again in satellite images.
The initial wind speed is held at 75 kt for this advisory, in
agreement with the Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB, but
this could be a little conservative. The environmental parameters
for intensification are mixed. Although the shear is expected to be
light to moderate during the next several days, marginally warm sea
surface temperatures and intrusions of dry air could negate the
influence of the low shear. Based on the current trend and expected
conditions, some slight strengthening is shown in the short term
followed by a very slow weakening thereafter. This forecast is in
close agreement with the intensity model consensus and is not too
different from the previous NHC forecast.

The hurricane is moving westward about 12 kt on the south side
of a strong high pressure system. Lester is expected to remain to
the south of mid-level ridging during the next several days, and
that should keep the system moving westward at about the same
forward speed. The model guidance is in good agreement, and only
small changes were made to the previous NHC track prediction.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0300Z 17.9N 126.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 18.0N 128.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 30/0000Z 18.1N 131.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 30/1200Z 18.2N 133.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 31/0000Z 18.2N 136.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 01/0000Z 18.1N 140.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 02/0000Z 18.5N 145.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 03/0000Z 19.7N 150.0W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[hurricanes1234]

They did say it could be conservative. Looks much better than today.

Personally I would've gone with 80 knots since a new eye has emerged.

[1900hurricane]

Looks to me like eyewall replacement is taking place.

[hurricanes1234]

Eyewall replacement in a Category 1

With that shrinking convective canopy it'll be interesting to see how compact it gets.

[hurricanes1234]

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.2 / 967.0mb/ 94.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.2 5.4 5.5

Numbers jumped up in the last frame.

[Kingarabian]

...LESTER MAKES A COMEBACK AND BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE...

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 290853
TCDEP3

HURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132016
200 AM PDT MON AUG 29 2016

Lester has made a comeback. A ragged eye that had formed around the
time of the last advisory has cleared out and warmed significantly.
The hurricane's central dense overcast has also expanded and become
more axisymmetric while the cyclone has shed its outer bands.
Overall, the characteristics exhibited by Lester are those that
typify annular hurricanes. The Dvorak T-number from TAFB increased
to T5.5/102 kt at 0600 UTC, with the latest UW-CIMSS ADT values
around T5.4/100 kt. Given these data, the initial intensity
estimate is raised to 100 kt, making Lester the fourth major
hurricane of the 2016 eastern North Pacific hurricane season.

The initial motion estimate is 270/13. A strong subtropical
ridge north of Lester should continue to steer the hurricane nearly
due west for the next 3 days. After that time, a probable binary
interaction with Madeline should result in a west-northwestward
shift in the cyclone's heading as it approaches the Hawaiian
Islands. Except for the UKMET and HWRF models, the guidance is
relatively tightly clustered through 5 days. The NHC track forecast
is nearly identical to the previous one and is closest to a blend of
the GFS and ECMWF solutions.

In general, Lester should be embedded in a light easterly shear
environment during the next several days while it moves over nearly
constant sea surface temperatures between 26-27 deg C. These
conditions suggest that Lester could maintain its current annular
characteristics for some time, even though the large-scale
environment is only marginally conducive for it to do so. Lester's
current intensification phase has caused the NHC intensity forecast
to be increased quite a bit over the previous one. It is also
above nearly all of the guidance throughout the period, especially
in the short term, given the tendency of forecasts for annular
hurricanes to overestimate their future filling rate.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0900Z 18.0N 127.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 29/1800Z 18.0N 129.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 30/0600Z 18.1N 132.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 30/1800Z 18.1N 134.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 31/0600Z 18.1N 137.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 01/0600Z 18.2N 141.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 02/0600Z 18.7N 146.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 03/0600Z 20.2N 151.4W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

[hurricanes1234]

Wow! What a heck of a comeback Lester has made! Seems like it didn't give up after all.

[Yellow Evan]

I knew this would happen lol. With days to intensify, no way this was just peaking at 90 knots...

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 29 AUG 2016 Time : 103000 UTC
Lat : 18:04:13 N Lon : 128:12:26 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.5 / 960.1mb/102.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.5 5.7 5.7

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : +0.8C Cloud Region Temp : -62.2C

Scene Type : EYE