ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

[LarryWx]

99L Part Deux...Euro is not impressed...
http://i68.tinypic.com/25zl4xi.png

I think it is pretty clear the 9KM resolution or whatever they did to the EURO this year has caused serious issues with the reliability of this model as far as tropical forecasting is concerned, not to mention we are in the long-range.

Take TD9 as an example, how does it suddenly blow it up to a hurricane this run in the Gulf when it had something so much weaker in the 00Z run? The EURO is not the same as it once was.

I think part of the problem is that the Euro, since about Fiona of 2010 when its resolution was increased, has had a bullish bias at the surface for TC's. This has especially been the case north of 25N. This means a lot of Gulf storms are way overstrengthened on the stronger runs. Then the mode get back to reality and has much weaker runs. Sometimes it will go back and forth.

[SouthFLTropics]

Not that I am trusting the Euro at the moment but it does not appear to be feeling any weakness left behind by TD9. Is that because the Euro keeps this very weak?

I would guess that it is because it keeps it weak. Anything with any strength would of headed north into the weakness left by 99L/TD9. The way the models are performing I'm not apt to trust them past 48 hours, much less 9 to 10 days.

[LarryWx]

Models such as the Euro can be trusted even less than normal for 92L because they have TD 9 becoming a H in the GOM and we know that could easily be wrong with TD 9 continuing to struggle. Therefore, what the Euro and others do with TD 9 could easily be way off as far as its influence on the steering flow and atmospheric conditions for 92L in the 6-10 day period is concerned.

[TheStormExpert]

Not that I am trusting the Euro at the moment but it does not appear to be feeling any weakness left behind by TD9. Is that because the Euro keeps this very weak?

Yeah that's why, I don't trust the Euro either but the 500mb pattern on this and GFS seems to be hinting at a weakness in 8-10 days.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

See the models are back to a New England landfall or close call. Like I said in the pre-92l thread, a few days ago, the models are all over the place with this one.

[bg1]

Models such as the Euro can be trusted even less than normal for 92L because they have TD 9 becoming a H in the GOM and we know that could easily be wrong with TD 9 continuing to struggle.

You know conditions are awful in the Gulf when you can easily interpret this just as "becoming Hermine".

[TheStormExpert]

18z GFS trending with the 12z Euro solution of no development.

[chaser1]

99L Part Deux...Euro is not impressed...
http://i68.tinypic.com/25zl4xi.png

I think it is pretty clear the 9KM resolution or whatever they did to the EURO this year has caused serious issues with the reliability of this model as far as tropical forecasting is concerned, not to mention we are in the long-range.

Take TD9 as an example, how does it suddenly blow it up to a hurricane this run in the Gulf when it had something so much weaker in the 00Z run? The EURO is not the same as it once was.

I think part of the problem is that the Euro, since about Fiona of 2010 when its resolution was increased, has had a bullish bias at the surface for TC's. This has especially been the case north of 25N. This means a lot of Gulf storms are way overstrengthened on the stronger runs. Then the mode get back to reality and has much weaker runs. Sometimes it will go back and forth.

So unbelievably irritating though! One would think that the changes and tweaks to the model would have been identified to the extent that some minor tweaking might be made to resolve some of these issues. Then again, I"m not sure how that could be done unless a "shadow" model were simultaneously run so both "Euro1" and "Euro2" models could be reviewed and/or used.

[SoupBone]

18z GFS trending with the 12z Euro solution of no development.

Seriously? Is that why the floater was dropped? No more invest?

[TheStormExpert]

18z GFS trending with the 12z Euro solution of no development.

Seriously? Is that why the floater was dropped? No more invest?

Yep, at most this may be a 99L redux in my opinion and we know how fun that was to track.

[toad strangler]

Very distinct trend of weakening what was a vigorously modeled wave by the big two.

The 18z GFS sends a weak storm into the big islands which nearly do it in before an even weaker version gets scooted off fish style into the mid Atlantic abyss.




The 12z Euro with a similar track and just on the N side of the big islands and then ejects a nearly dead wave into the FL straits area.

[blp]

The UKMET is back on board today. As well as the Navgem and CMC. Interesting how we saw the waxing and waning in the models with 99l and I think we will see the same here. I expect GFS and Euro to bring this back again in the Bahamas.

[toad strangler]

0z GFS with more weak sauce through 144 hours. Looking to skirt just N of the big islands on a WNW track. Just strange to see at near peak season.

[toad strangler]

And ..... POOF

[SouthFLTropics]

And ..... POOF

No love at all for 92L from the models...after their performance on the cyclogenesis of 99L though I'm not putting much faith in model runs that far out in time.

[toad strangler]

Still a moist signature there at 222 way out there hours but WOW look at that wall of DRY to the NW

[WeatherEmperor]

Looks like the models did a flip flop. A few days ago...it was only the GFS and Euro showing development. Maybe the Ukmet showed it a couple times or so. The Canadian and Nogaps showed nothing. Fast forward to this morning. The Gfs and Euro show basically nothing...but the Canadian and Nogaps show development. I think the Ukmet shows a very weak low near PR in 144hrs? Can't post images right now. Sorry

[CYCLONE MIKE]

My how times have changed. Watching a depression struggle to organize in one of the prime locations for over a week and now a wave that all the models had deemed the "big one" traverses the entire atlantic without developing, all at peak season.

[PTrackerLA]

There's quite a few Euro ensembles on the 00z run that blow this up to a significant storm in the GOM or off the SE coast past day 10. Definitely can't write the system off but we'll see what the models show again in a few days.

[LarryWx]

The 12Z GFS is another very weak run with just a wave that gives Luis and company some rain in PR on 9/5 followed by a move WNW to the far SE Bahamas at hour 162.