ATL: JULIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Cloudiness and showers located just north of the northern Leeward
Islands are spreading west-northwestward with no signs of
organization. Environmental conditions are not expected to be
conducive for significant development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

[StormTracker]

It's definitely starting to look like peak season!

[gatorcane]

Convection is building back and the system seems to be moving more west:

[LarryWx]

Yeah, gator, what's clear to me is that this is not going away easily and it is NOT taking a path favoring a safe recurve away from the SE CONUS. I'm still near 30% chance for it eventually becoming a TC. If so, it looks like somewhere in the SE US will have to deal with it.

[TheStormExpert]

Not expecting this to develop way too much shear for this time of year thanks to the never ending parade of Upper Level Lows traversing the Atlantic.

[Blown Away]

It's definitely starting to look like peak season!

One maybe and two likely nots! That's the reality of the Atlantic basin at it's height these days, except for the Central/N Atlantic above 20N. Had a good run for a while but it seems the quiet time is becoming the norm.

[LarryWx]

Not expecting this to develop way too much shear for this time of year thanks to the never ending parade of Upper Level Lows traversing the Atlantic.

I don't know about that. Maybe so but note the good clockwise outflow that continues on top of this puppy. That's one reason I'm not yet writing this off. To me, this does not at all look like something being torn apart.

[Emmett_Brown]

Of the 3 invests, this one looks like it could sneak through and bother someone, assuming it survives the next couple of days.

[Blown Away]

No real signs of a LLC...

[Hurricaneman]

Its under a low shear environment and shear seems to be dropping some ahead of that to moderate levels

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

[TheStormExpert]

Here is the latest wind shear. It's in a small little sweet spot at the moment but man there is quite a bit of wind shear surrounding it and even throughout all of the Atlantic for peak season.

[LarryWx]

The 12Z GFS forecasts this to remain in only light to moderate shear for the next few days as it moves WNW. Another reason to monitor as it isn't just the current shear that isn't unfavorable.

[cycloneye]

Cloudiness and showers located just north of the northern Leeward
Islands and Puerto Rico are spreading west-northwestward with no
signs of organization. Environmental conditions are not expected to
be conducive for significant development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

[abajan]

[rickybobby]

Wesh 2 said it has no chance of development and central Florida should see rain chances increase on Monday and Tuesday.

[LarryWx]

Wesh 2 said it has no chance of development and central Florida should see rain chances increase on Monday and Tuesday.

I'm sticking with a 30% chance instead of lower for reasons already stated. The NHC has 10% as I assume you know.

The 18Z GFS shows a 200 mb upper LOW to its west aiding in the convective blowup today. Starting tomorrow and going into Monday, the upper low loses its grip and an upper HIGH to its north and northeast has influence. I have to think that would allow for more conducive conditions for development than today though the 18Z GFS still doesn't develop it. It does, however, bring the 93L 850-700 mb vorticity into Jacksonville late on Tuesday.

[tolakram]

Not expecting this to develop way too much shear for this time of year thanks to the never ending parade of Upper Level Lows traversing the Atlantic.

Do me a favor and look at normals for the basin this time of year. Shear is running near or below normal in all regions. It's going to be painful if every year people expect normal to equal no shear.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/atlantic.html

[AutoPenalti]

For whatever reason, it's having a hard time trying to wrap around, shear is minimal in 93L's vicinity.

[LarryWx]

For whatever reason, it's having a hard time trying to wrap around, shear is minimal in 93L's vicinity.

I'm wondering if the proximity of the upper low just to its west was the main negative factor even if the shear wasn't that high. Anyone have an opinion? It seemed like the convective blowup today was largely induced by that upper low but I could be wrong. I don't think that allowed for any kind of low level center to really wrap up. The upper low should not have nearly the same influence starting tomorrow. So, whereas there may not be as much convection over the weekend, whatever convection there is would seemingly be more purely tropical related and may mean a better chance for actual tropical development.

[cycloneye]

An area of cloudiness, showers, and thunderstorms located just north
of the northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico is not showing any
signs of organization. Environmental conditions are not expected to
be conducive for significant development of this system while it
moves generally west-northwestward at around 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent