CPAC: 9-C - Post-Tropical

[1900hurricane]

Considering that JTWC has issued every outlook on this system regardless of which side if the Dateline it has been on, I think they'll end up issuing all advisories on it too. Now, naming is something else entirely, since JTWC isn't an RSMC and it is outside JMA's area of responsibility.

[Yellow Evan]

CPHC will name this as soon as this falls apart. You watch.

[Yellow Evan]

TXPN41 PHFO 301151
TCSNP1

CENTRAL PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY - FIXES
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1155 UTC WED DEC 30 2015

A. Tropical disturbance 99°W.

B. 30/1130Z.

C. 2.2°N.

D. 176.7°W.

E. Goes-15.

F. T1.5/1.5/d1.5/24 hrs.

G. Ir/eir.

H. Remarks: Shear pattern with center less than 45 nm from eir bd dg gives a DT of 2.5. Pattern t and MET are 1.5. FT is based on met.

I. Addl positions none.

$$

[cycloneye]

CENTRAL PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY - FIXES
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1155 UTC WED DEC 30 2015

A. Tropical disturbance 99°W.

B. 30/1130Z.

C. 2.2°N.

D. 176.7°W.

E. Goes-15.

F. T1.5/1.5/d1.5/24 hrs.

G. Ir/eir.

H. Remarks: Shear pattern with center less than 45 nm from eir bd dg gives a DT of 2.5. Pattern t and MET are 1.5. FT is based on met.

[Yellow Evan]

TXPN27 KNES 301203
TCSCNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (99W)

B. 30/1130Z

C. 1.7N

D. 176.0W

E. FIVE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.5/1.5/D0.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...CURVED BANDING WRAPS .3 FOR A DT OF 1.5. MET AND PT
AGREE. FT IS BASED ON MET.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL

[jaguarjace]

90C INVEST 151230 1800 1.9N 175.1W CPAC 25 1004

[Alyono]

JT does not issue advisory on unclassified systems in the EPAC or CPAC

[Hurricanehink]

I'm sure this will be moved soon, since it's now 99C, but CPHC issued a STWO:

1. A low located 1100 miles southwest of Johnston island or 800 miles southeast of majuro is drifting to the west-northwest. Environmental conditions are moderately favorable for gradual development over the next 24 hours. *formation chance through 48 hours, low, 30 percent.

[jaguarjace]

90C INVEST 151230 1800 2.6N 176.7W CPAC 25 1003


Coordinates changed slightly for 90C.

[euro6208]

JTWC has now issued a TCFA.

WTPN21 PHNC 302030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
250 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 1.8N 174.0W TO 4.7N 176.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 301800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 2.6N 176.7W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 1.1N
175.3W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 2.6N 176.7W, APPROXIMATELY 762 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MAJURO. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
301739Z SSMIS DEPICTS DEEPENED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A
MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOT)
SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG POLEWARD DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB.
DUE TO INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
312030Z.//
NNNN

[Yellow Evan]

Nice fix for a change.

CENTRAL PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY - FIXES
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1800 UTC WED DEC 30 2015

A. Tropical disturbance 99°W.

B. 30/1730Z.

C. 2.7°N.

D. 177.0°W.

E. Hmwri8/goes-15.

F. T2.0/2.0/d0.5/24 hrs.

G. Ir/eir.

H. Remarks: A 0.35 wrap yields and DT of 2.0. The MET is 1.5 and the Pat is 2.0. FT is based on the DT.

I. Addl positions none.

Honestly, if you ask me this is there, but it's debatable as the ASCAT's passes suggested a very broad circulation typical of a monsoonal system.

[1900hurricane]

Based on the updated JTWC Outlook, it looks like this is being handed off to CPHC like would be normal (finally), meaning CPHC will likely be issuing the first advisory. It wouldn't have been unprecedented for JTWC to issue advisories in the far western CPac though. In 1992, they did start warning on Ward before crossing the Dateline.

[1900hurricane]

ASCAT shows an elongated circulation to the east at the moment.

[Yellow Evan]

TXPN41 PHFO 310002
TCSNP1

CENTRAL PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY - FIXES
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0000 UTC THU DEC 31 2015

A. Tropical depression 09-c.

B. 30/2330Z.

C. 2.0°N.

D. 175.2°W.

E. Hmwri8/goes-15.

F. T2.0/2.0/d1.5/24 hrs.

G. Vis/ir/eir.

H. Remarks: A 0.25 wrap yields a DT of 1.5. The MET is 2.0 and the Pat is 1.5. Due to constraints, the FT is based on the met.

I. Addl positions none.

$$

Eaton.

[Yellow Evan]

18z SAB fix re-lowered. I would not trust WindSat in a monsoon situation.

TXPN27 KNES 302329
TCSCNP
CCA

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (90C)

B. 30/1800Z

C. 2.0N

D. 174.5W

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.0/1.5/W0.5/06HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/WINDSAT

H. REMARKS...CORRECTED FOR POSITION AND INTENSITY BASED ON 1751Z WINDSAT
IMAGE WHICH SHOWED THE CENTER TO FARTHER EAST-SOUTHEAST. CONVECTION
IS SHEARED OVER 1.25 DEGREES TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER RESULTING A DT
THAT IS LESS THAN 1.0. MET AND PT ARE ALSO LESS THAN 1.0. FT IS BASED
ON TRADITIONAL DVORAC CONSTRAINTS LIMITING CHANGES IN T NUMBER TO 0.5
OVER 6 HRS.

[Yellow Evan]

And new SAB fix

TXPN27 KNES 310045
TCSCNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (90C)

B. 30/2330Z

C. 2.0N

D. 174.7W

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.5/1.5/D0.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/WINDSAT

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM CHARACTERIZED BY CIRCULARLY DEFINED CLOUD LINES AND
A CENTER LESS THAN 1.25 DEGREES FROM A LARGE COLD OVERCAST. THIS RESULTS
IN A DT OF 2.0 USING THE SHEAR PATTERN. MET AND PT ARE ALSO 2.0. FT IS
BASED ON TRADITIONAL DVORAK CONSTRAINTS LIMITING CHANGES IN T NUMBER TO
0.5 OVER 6 HRS.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

30/1751Z 2.0N 174.5W WINDSAT


...HOWELL

[Yellow Evan]

Code: Select all

CP, 09, 2015123006,   , BEST,   0,  18N, 1753W,  25, 1002, TD,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1004,  165,  45,   0,   0,   W,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S,
CP, 09, 2015123012,   , BEST,   0,  23N, 1758W,  25, 1002, TD,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1004,  165,  45,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST,  ,
CP, 09, 2015123018,   , BEST,   0,  26N, 1767W,  25, 1003, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1004,  165,  45,   0,   0,   C,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S,
CP, 09, 2015123100,   , BEST,   0,  27N, 1775W,  30, 1001, TD,  34, NEQ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1004,  165,  45,   0,   0,   C,   0,    ,   0,   0,       NINE, M,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, TRANSITIONED, cpB02015 to cp092015,


[1900hurricane]

Yep listed as 09C on the NRL page too. The CPac (and kinda the WPac too) eeks out one more.

[supercane]

WTPA41 PHFO 310254
TCDCP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-C DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP092015
500 PM HST WED DEC 30 2015

AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN FLANK OF A BURST OF
WESTERLIES ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR HAS BECOME ORGANIZED
ENOUGH TO WARRANT ADVISORIES AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THIS MAKES
NINE-C THE SIXTEENTH TROPICAL SYSTEM OF THE YEAR TO EITHER FORM
WITHIN OR PASS THROUGH THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC BASIN. SATELLITE
LOOP AND A MORNING WINDSAT PASS SHOW THE LLCC IS LIKELY ELONGATED
ALONG A ROUGH EAST TO WEST AXIS...WITH THE INITIAL POSITION
REPRESENTING A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE OLD JTWC BEST TRACK BENEATH
DEEP CONVECTION AND AN EXPOSED VORTICITY CENTER FARTHER TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST PICKED UP BY PHFO AND SAB. THAT SAID...CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION IS ONLY FAIR AT BEST.

SUBJECTIVE DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 1.5...25
KT...FROM SAB TO 2.0...30 KT...FROM PHFO AND JTWC. THE EARLIER
WINDSAT PASS CONTAINED A FEW BARBS OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS...SO
WE WILL COMPROMISE BY ASSIGNING AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT FOR
THIS ADVISORY. THE BELT OF 30 KT WINDS EXTENDS FAR TO THE NORTH OF
THIS SYSTEM...AGAINST THE CONCEPTUAL MODEL OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM AND
MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF LARGER SCALE SYNOPTIC GRADIENT FLOW. THE
WESTERLIES TO THE SOUTH OF THIS SYSTEM ARE NOTICEABLY WEAKER THAN
THE GRADIENT FLOW TO THE NORTH...LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO THE
STRETCHED OUT APPEARANCE THIS SYSTEM HAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

THE FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS BAMM GUIDANCE...WHICH LIFTS NINE-C
GRADUALLY NORTHWARD AS IT SLIDES WEST ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. WE KEPT MOVEMENT A BIT SLOWER ALONG THE
FORECAST TRACK THAN BAMM DEPICTED TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT MOTION AND
AS A NOD TO SLOWER MOTION DEPICTED IN BAMS.

WE EXPECT NINE-C WILL DEVELOP SLOWLY...IF AT ALL...DUE TO STRONG
SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE DEPICTED BY SHIPS. IF
THIS SYSTEM AVOIDS DISSIPATION...IT IS FORECAST TO REACH TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH AT 72 HOURS AS IT CROSSES WARMER WATERS ACROSS THE
WESTERN PACIFIC. THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES NINE-C WEST OF THE
DATELINE BY DAY 2.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/0300Z 2.8N 177.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 31/1200Z 3.2N 178.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 01/0000Z 4.2N 179.8E 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 01/1200Z 5.0N 178.2E 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 02/0000Z 5.6N 176.4E 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 03/0000Z 6.5N 172.4E 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 04/0000Z 6.7N 168.2E 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 05/0000Z 5.9N 164.0E 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
FORECASTER POWELL

[euro6208]

Forecast to become Pali as it enters the WPAC.

WTPA41 PHFO 311501
TCDCP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-C DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP092015
500 AM HST THU DEC 31 2015

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-C...THE SIXTEENTH TROPICAL CYCLONE OF
2015 IN THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN...CONTINUES TO PROVIDE MANY
CHALLENGES EARLY THIS MORNING. THE PRIMARY PROBLEM REMAINS THE
LOCATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER /LLCC/ OF THE
DEPRESSION. NIGHTTIME INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THE HIMAWARI
SATELLITE HAS BEEN USEFUL IN MONITORING THE SHORT-TERM CHANGES IN
THE EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE APPARENT LLCC.
HOWEVER...EVEN WITH 10-MINUTE INTERVAL HIGH-RESOLUTION SATELLITE
IMAGERY...THE CIRRUS CANOPY OVER THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO OBSCURE
MOST OF THE LOWER-LEVEL CUMULUS AND TOWERING CUMULUS CLOUDS THAT
MIGHT HELP US TO LOCATE THE LLCC. ONCE AGAIN...ALL OF THE SATELLITE
FIX AGENCIES...PHFO...SAB AND JTWC...PROVIDED POSITION FIXES THAT
ARE IN RELATIVELY CLOSE PROXIMITY. THE MOST RECENT SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 2.0/30 KT FROM JTWC
AND SAB...WHILE THE PHFO VALUE IS 2.5/35 KT. THE LATEST CIMSS ADT
ESTIMATE IS 2.9/43 KT. THE ENVIRONMENTAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN
THE VICINITY OF NINE-C ACCORDING TO SHIPS IS 23 KT FROM 110 DEGREES.
DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE LLCC IN A HIGHLY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...WE WILL MAINTAIN THE INITIAL INTENSITY
ESTIMATE AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE FOR THIS ADVISORY IS AN UNCERTAIN
300/02 KT. AS WITH THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...FORECAST TRACK GUIDANCE
FOR NINE-C REMAINS UNRELIABLE...IF IT IS AVAILABLE. SINCE THE GFDL
AND HWRF GUIDANCE MOVE NINE-C IN DIFFERENT DIRECTIONS AND THERE IS NO
ECMWF FORECAST AVAILABLE...THE CONSENSUS MODELS WE NORMALLY RELY ON ARE
AMBIGUOUS. NOTE ALSO THAT GFDL AND HWRF DISSIPATE NINE-C IN 2 TO 3 DAYS.
THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST IS AVAILABLE...SO WE USED THAT TO MODIFY
THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK. THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK REMAINS
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS...BUT THE FORWARD MOTION OF THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN
DECREASED.

NEAR EQUATORIAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 30 DEGREES C...AS
WELL AS HIGH VALUES OF OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AS DEPICTED ON THE CIRA
WEB SITE...APPEAR TO BE MAJOR FACTORS THAT MIGHT ULTIMATELY KEEP
NINE-C ALIVE. HOWEVER...THE LATEST FORECAST AGAIN INDICATES THE
SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP SLOWLY...IF AT ALL...DUE TO THE STRONG EASTERLY
SHEAR IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE ACCORDING TO THE LATEST SHIPS
GUIDANCE. IF NINE-C AVOIDS DISSIPATION...IT IS FORECAST TO REACH
TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY BY DAY 4 AS IT APPROACHES THE INTERNATIONAL
DATE LINE. NOTE ALSO THAT THIS FORECAST CONTINUES TO DELAY THE
POTENTIAL CROSSING OF NINE-C INTO THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC UNTIL AROUND
DAY 5.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/1500Z 2.4N 176.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 01/0000Z 2.5N 176.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 01/1200Z 2.7N 176.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 02/0000Z 2.9N 177.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 02/1200Z 3.1N 177.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 03/1200Z 3.5N 178.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 04/1200Z 3.9N 179.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 05/1200Z 4.3N 180.0E 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
FORECASTER HOUSTON