CPAC: 9-C - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

EURO and GFS kinda loses the vorticity of 09C as it enters the WPAC but develops something west of it days later. Not sure if it's 09C/Pali or another system. GFS then takes this system close to Guam as a typhoon while EURO keeps it weak.

[1900hurricane]

Microwave imagery suggests a center location a little bit south and slightly east of the CPHC's position at 15Z. 09C sure is messy right now though. I think it might have actually looked better prior to classification.

[1900hurricane]

This is where I'd analyze 09C as of 1630Z. Worthy of being classified, but characterized by easterly shear.

[supercane]

WTPA41 PHFO 312048
TCDCP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-C DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP092015
1100 AM HST THU DEC 31 2015

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-C REMAINS RATHER UNORGANIZED THIS MORNING
WITH THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. THE
FIX POSITIONS FROM PHFO...SAB AND JTWC WERE UP TO 120 MILES APART
SO CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL FIX POSITION IS RATHER LOW. THE
INITIAL POSITION FOR THIS PACKAGE IS CLOSE TO PHFO WHICH LIES IN
THE MIDDLE OF THE SAB AND JTWC FIX POSITIONS. THE MOST RECENT
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 2.0/30
KT FROM ALL THREE FIX AGENCIES. BASED ON THESE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
AS WELL AS ITS CURRENT APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WE WILL
KEEP THE SYSTEM AT 30 KT WITH THIS ADVISORY.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC WITH A WIDE RANGE GIVEN
FROM MODEL GUIDANCE. THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A SHEARED ENVIRONMENT
WITH BOTH SHIPS AND UW-CIMSS INDICATING SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 20
KT OVER THE SYSTEM. SHIPS INDICATES LITTLE CHANGE IN SHEAR VALUES
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH A BIT LESS SHEAR INDICATED BEYOND DAY
3. THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER WARM WATER THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SHIPS AND IVCN GUIDANCE SLOWLY STRENGTHEN NINE-C TO A
HURRICANE BY AROUND DAY 4. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE
SYSTEM COULD DISSIPATE WITHIN A FEW DAYS AS INDICATED BY HWFI AND
GFDI. THE GFS MODEL KEEPS THE SYSTEM PRETTY MUCH IN A STEADY STATE
THROUGH DAY 5 WHILE THE ECMWF WEAKENS THE SYSTEM RAPIDLY OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE LATEST FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST KEEPING THE SYSTEM A DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WITH SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING TO A TROPICAL STORM ON DAYS 4 AND
5.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 315/03 KT. AS
WITH THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...FORECAST TRACK GUIDANCE FOR NINE-C
REMAINS UNRELIABLE. THERE REMAINS A WIDE SPREAD IN TRACK
GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH INTENSITY
GUIDANCE. THE LATEST TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH A SLOW WEST NORTHWEST MOTION EXPECTED THROUGH
DAY 5.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/2100Z 2.7N 177.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 01/0600Z 2.8N 177.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 01/1800Z 2.9N 178.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 02/0600Z 3.1N 178.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 02/1800Z 3.4N 179.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 03/1800Z 3.9N 179.9E 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 04/1800Z 4.5N 178.4E 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 05/1800Z 5.0N 177.0E 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BURKE

[NotoSans]

TXPN27 KNES 010558
TCSCNP

A. 09C (NONAME)

B. 01/0530Z

C. 1.7N

D. 176.2W

E. FIVE/HIMAWARI-8

F. TOO WEAK

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...ITS BECOME INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO DISCERN A CLOSED
LOW LEVEL CENTER WITH 09C. CURRENT POSITION IS WEST OF AN AREA OF WEAK
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW SEEN IN LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES. ACTIVE DEEP CONVECTION
IS MINIMAL NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER AND MEASURES LESS THAN THE 2/10
WHICH RESULTS IN A DT OF LESS THAN 1.0. PT IS ALSO LESS THAN 1.0 WHILE THE
MET IS 1.0. THIS WILL BE THE FINAL BULLETIN UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TURK

[stormwise]

The Coriolis effect is minimal (to zero) the closer a tropical cyclone is to the Equator. ASCAT indicates a TS with 40kt winds as of late yesterday afternoon.

This was never a 40KT TS and it never will be.

[euro6208]

Nearing the IDL and latest warning strengthens this to TS Nepartak.

[1900hurricane]

For now at least, it's time to pull the plug.

[Alyono]

The Coriolis effect is minimal (to zero) the closer a tropical cyclone is to the Equator. ASCAT indicates a TS with 40kt winds as of late yesterday afternoon.

This was never a 40KT TS and it never will be.

please provide evidence. Evidence has already been provided that this was a TS. It is on you to refute this

[Yellow Evan]

WTPA41 PHFO 011455
TCDCP1

REMNANTS OF NINE-C DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP092015
500 AM HST FRI JAN 01 2016

DEEP CONVECTION FLARED UP DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS NEAR THE
LOCATION WHERE TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-C APPEARED TO HAVE BEEN
EARLIER TONIGHT. HOWEVER...AN 0855Z ASCAT PASS OVER THIS ELONGATED
AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION REVEALED A ROUGHLY EAST-NORTHEAST TO
WEST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH WITH NO WELL DEFINED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THERE WAS A NEARLY 150 MILE WIDE BAND
OF LIGHT WEST WINDS DUE SOUTH OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...WHILE A BELT
OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WAS NORTH OF THE
TROUGH. THE STRONGEST WINDS...AROUND 25 KT...WERE LOCATED NEARLY 120
NM NORTH OF THE TROUGH AXIS. IN ADDITION TO THIS ASCAT PASS...NONE
OF THE THREE SATELLITE FIX AGENCIES...JTWC...SAB OR PHFO...WAS ABLE
TO PROVIDE A CENTER FIX OR CLASSIFY THE SYSTEM AS OF 1200Z THIS
MORNING. AS A RESULT OF THE ASCAT DATA AND THE LACK OF
CLASSIFICATIONS FROM THESE AGENCIES...NINE-C HAS DISSIPATED AND THIS
WILL BE THE FINAL ADVISORY ISSUED FOR THIS SYSTEM...UNLESS
REGENERATION OCCURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/1500Z 2.2N 177.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...REMNANTS
12H 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER HOUSTON

At least it made it to 2016.

[Yellow Evan]

The Coriolis effect is minimal (to zero) the closer a tropical cyclone is to the Equator. ASCAT indicates a TS with 40kt winds as of late yesterday afternoon.

This was never a 40KT TS and it never will be.

This probably was on the 29th per ASCAT IMO. Is that hard for you to believe?

[stormwise]

The Coriolis effect is minimal (to zero) the closer a tropical cyclone is to the Equator. ASCAT indicates a TS with 40kt winds as of late yesterday afternoon.

This was never a 40KT TS and it never will be.

please provide evidence. Evidence has already been provided that this was a TS. It is on you to refute this

Supporting your fellow colleagues is admirable, What's your evidence other than the posted 37 displaying a weak closed circulation structure.
Where is this ascat displaying 40kt winds sampled within a closed circulation.What agency is supporting the Evidence has already been provided in your quote Alyono,CPHC,NWS,JMA,FIJI,JTWC please enlighten me.

So you as a Promet YOU are claiming the validity this was a 40kt TS Alyono?

[dexterlabio]

Supporting your fellow colleagues is admirable, What's your evidence other than the posted 37 displaying a weak closed circulation structure.
Where is this ascat displaying 40kt winds sampled within a closed circulation.What agency is supporting the Evidence has already been provided in your quote Alyono,CPHC,NWS,JMA,FIJI,JTWC please enlighten me.

So you as a Promet YOU are claiming the validity this was a 40kt TS Alyono?

So are you a promet? I'm just wondering.

[Alyono]

Supporting your fellow colleagues is admirable, What's your evidence other than the posted 37 displaying a weak closed circulation structure.
Where is this ascat displaying 40kt winds sampled within a closed circulation.What agency is supporting the Evidence has already been provided in your quote Alyono,CPHC,NWS,JMA,FIJI,JTWC please enlighten me.

So you as a Promet YOU are claiming the validity this was a 40kt TS Alyono?

Yes, I AM saying this was a tropical storm. That microwave is clear evidence that a circulation existed. In addition, there were numerous satellite passes showing 35-40 kt westerly winds. Of course a closed circulation existed with those westerly winds given that we had a westward moving system at that time with westerly winds SOUTH of the center position.

I couldn't care less what an RSMC is saying. A well known bias is that the WPAC agencies rely far too much upon Dvorak and do not put all of the data together. Not a big deal as this was affecting a few tarpon, tons of plankton, and a bunch of sharks. The lack of an RSMC classification does not mean a system does not exist

Also, in science, if you make a claim, you need to back it up. You challenged the statement this was a TS. Provide the evidence

[euro6208]

What a disappointing system...

Our top 2 models, GFS and EURO no longer shows development although they keep the remnants traveling west across Micronesia.

[euro6208]

The formation of 09C was the result of the enhanced phrase of the kelvin wave passing over the dateline but has since passed causing a noticeably weakening of convection in the area.





However a new enhanced phrase has now crossed over into the WPAC and should 09C survive, it probrably might aid in it's development. We'll see...