SPAC: ULA - Post-Tropical

[supercane]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A28 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 051918 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE ULA CENTRE 985HPA CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.9S
177.0E AT 051800 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR GMS/GOES EIR IMAGERY
AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 04
KNOTS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 40
KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN N SEMICIRCLE
AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN S SEMICIRCLE.

CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT MOSTLY ABOUT WEST OF LLCC BUT IS
DECREASING IN AREAL EXTEND. ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD. OUTFLOW GOOD
TO THE SOUTH. SST AROUND 26 DEGREES. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE
IN A MODERATE TO HIGH SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM
THE WEST AND NORTH. OLA IS TRACKING WEST-NORTHWEST DUE TO THE
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.5
WRAP YIELDS DT=2.5, MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT. THUS YIELDING
T2.5/3.0/W1.0/24HRS.


FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 060600 UTC 20.5S 176.3E MOV NW AT 04KT WITH 40 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 061800 UTC 20.1S 175.6E MOV WNW AT 04KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 070600 UTC 19.8S 175.0E MOV WNW AT 04KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 071800 UTC 19.6S 174.3E MOV WNW AT 04KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON ULA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
060200UTC.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WTPS51 PGTW 052100
WARNING ATCG MIL 06P SWP 160105193815
2016010518 06P ULA 014 01 330 04 SATL 030
T000 210S 1771E 045 R034 040 NE QD 065 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD
T012 204S 1765E 040 R034 050 NE QD 085 SE QD 095 SW QD 055 NW QD
T024 199S 1759E 040 R034 060 NE QD 085 SE QD 095 SW QD 065 NW QD
T036 194S 1753E 035
T048 191S 1747E 035
T072 191S 1730E 030
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA) WARNING NR 014
<rest omitted to comments>
REMARKS:
052100Z POSITION NEAR 20.8S 176.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06P (ULA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 189 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS WANING CONVECTION OVER AN ELONGATED AND FULLY EXPOSED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC. MICROWAVE IMAGERY OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS FURTHER ILLUSTRATES A WEAKENING CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE; HOWEVER, THE LLCC IS STILL WELL DEFINED IN A 051807Z
SSMIS PASS. THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 45 KNOTS BASED ON
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM NFFN, KNES, AND
PGTW. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE AS THE
SYSTEM BECOMES DISCONNECTED FROM THE MOISTURE BELT TO THE EAST AND
THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. THE WATER VAPOR LOOP ALSO SHOWS DRY
AIR NEARLY SURROUNDING THE SYSTEM. TC 06P CONTINUES TO TRACK
EQUATORWARD DUE TO AN EXTENSION OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE
BUILDING IN JUST WEST OF THE CYCLONE. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THIS
RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE, ALLOWING THE CYCLONE TO ADJUST BACK TO A
WESTWARD TRAJECTORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN NEARLY UNCHANGED WHICH SUPPORTS
A CONTINUED GRADUAL WEAKENING. TC ULA WILL FULLY DISSIPATE BY THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT TURNS SLIGHTLY POLEWARD AND
ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. ALTHOUGH DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BECOME BETTER
ALIGNED SINCE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLE, THE RECENT UNEXPECTED
EQUATORWARD SHIFT IN STORM MOTION LEADS TO LOW OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z
IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060900Z AND 062100Z.//

[supercane]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A29 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 060154 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE ULA CENTRE 985HPA CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6S
176.6E AT 060000 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR GMS/GOES EIR IMAGERY
AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 05
KNOTS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 40
KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN N SEMICIRCLE
AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN S SEMICIRCLE.

CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT MOSTLY ABOUT WEST OF LLCC BUT IS
DECREASING IN AREAL EXTEND. ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD. OUTFLOW GOOD
TO THE SOUTH. SST AROUND 26 DEGREES. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE
IN A MODERATE TO HIGH SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM
THE WEST AND NORTH. ULA IS TRACKING NORTHWEST DUE TO THE SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.5 WRAP YIELDS
DT=2.5, MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT. THUS YIELDING
T2.5/3.0/W1.0/24HRS.


FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 061200 UTC 20.0S 176.0E MOV NW AT 04KT WITH 40 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 070000 UTC 19.5S 175.4E MOV NW AT 04KT WITH 40 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 071200 UTC 19.0S 174.9E MOV NW AT 04KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 080000 UTC 18.8S 174.3E MOV NW AT 04KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON ULA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
060800UTC.

[supercane]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A30 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 060801 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE ULA CENTRE 990HPA CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3S
176.2E AT 060600 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR MTSAT VIS IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 05
KNOTS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 40
KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN N SEMICIRCLE
AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN S SEMICIRCLE.

CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT. ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD. OUTFLOW
GOOD TO THE SOUTH. SST AROUND 26 DEGREES. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER
RIDGE IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. ULA IS TRACKING
NORTHWEST DUE TO THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH. DVORAK
ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.65 WRAP YIELDS DT=3.0, MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED
ON DT. THUS YIELDING T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS.


FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 061800 UTC 19.8S 175.6E MOV NW AT 04KT WITH 40 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 070600 UTC 19.3S 175.0E MOV NW AT 04KT WITH 40 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 071800 UTC 19.0S 174.5E MOV NW AT 04KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 080600 UTC 18.8S 173.8E MOV WNW AT 03KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON ULA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
061400UTC.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WTPS31 PGTW 060900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z --- NEAR 20.3S 176.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 20.3S 176.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 19.7S 175.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 19.4S 175.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
060900Z POSITION NEAR 20.2S 176.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06P (ULA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 178 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS SHRUNK AND BECOME MORE SHALLOW,
ALBEIT STILL FLARING. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A RAGGED
CIRCULATION FEATURE IN ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
PLACED CLOSE TO THE CLUSTER OF 060600Z AGENCY FIXES WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON CONGRUENT
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR; HOWEVER, THE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL THAT WAS SUSTAINING THE CONVECTION HAS
DIMINISHED. ADDITIONALLY, A LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGGING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST IS IMPEDING ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. IN THE LOW LEVELS, DRY
AIR IS INTRUDING FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND WRAPPING INTO THE CORE. THE
CYCLONE IS, HOWEVER, TRACKING ON WARM WATERS THAT WILL HELP SLOW DOWN
ITS DECAY. BY TAU 24, TC 06P WILL DISSIPATE DUE TO THE NEGATIVE NET
EFFECT OF THE ENVIRONMENTAL DYNAMICS. THERE IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY
OF REGENERATION BEYOND TAU 24 AS INDICATED BY NUMERIC INTENSITY AIDS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 062100Z.//
NNNN

[Alyono]

I do not understand what JTWC is looking at. All guidance keeps this around for 7 days. In addition, it is MUCH stronger than 35 kts right now

[supercane]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A31 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 061350 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE ULA CENTRE 995HPA CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8S
175.8E AT 061200 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR MTSAT IR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 05
KNOTS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 40
KNOTS.

EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE DECREASING TO
35 KNOTS BY 070000 UTC.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 75 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT MOSTLY TO THE SOUTHWEST BUT BECOMING
SUPPRESSED ELSEWHERE DUE TO DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. ORGANISATION REMAINS
GOOD. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE SOUTH. SST AROUND 27 DEGREES. SYSTEM LIES
UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. TC ULA
IS TRACKING NORTHWEST DUE TO THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE
SOUTH. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.5/0.55 WRAP YIELDS DT=2.5, MET AND
PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT. THUS YIELDING T2.5/3.0/S0.0/24HRS.


FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 070000 UTC 19.3S 175.3E MOV NW AT 04KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 071200 UTC 18.9S 174.7E MOV NW AT 03KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 080000 UTC 18.7S 174.2E MOV NW AT 03KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 081200 UTC 18.7S 173.5E MOV WNW AT 03KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON ULA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
062000UTC.

[supercane]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A32 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 062004 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE ULA CENTRE 995HPA CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7S
175.4E AT 061800 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR MTSAT IR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 05
KNOTS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 35
KNOTS.

EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE DECREASING TO
30 KNOTS BY 070000 UTC.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES IN NORTH
SEMICIRCLE
AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN SOUTH
SEMICIRCLE.


CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT MOSTLY TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF LLCC.
DRY AIR INTRUDING FROM THE WEST AND WRAPPING FROM THE NORTHEAST.
ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE SOUTH. SST AROUND 26
DEGREES. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. TC ULA IS TRACKING NORTHWEST DUE TO THE SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.3 WRAP YIELDS
DT=2.5, MET=2.5 AND PT=2.0. FT BASED ON DT. THUS YIELDING
T2.5/3.0/S0.0/24HRS.


FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 070600 UTC 19.2S 174.8E MOV NW AT 04KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 071800 UTC 18.8S 174.2E MOV NW AT 03KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 080600 UTC 18.5S 173.7E MOV NW AT 03KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 081800 UTC 18.4S 173.0E MOV WNW AT 03KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON ULA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
070200UTC.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WTPS31 PGTW 062100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z --- NEAR 19.5S 175.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.5S 175.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 18.9S 175.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 18.4S 174.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 18.1S 174.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 18.1S 173.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 19.0S 171.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
062100Z POSITION NEAR 19.3S 175.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06P (ULA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A 061754Z
SSMIS IMAGE SHOWING A DISTINCT LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THE INTENSITY OF 40
KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
KNES AND PGTW. TC 06P HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGING SITUATED TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LIMITED CONVECTION PERSISTING OVER AND TO
THE WEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). TC 06P HAS
APPROXIMATELY MAINTAINED INTENSITY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS IN THE
PRESENCE OF MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. THE LLCC IS TRACKING FARTHER EQUATORWARD
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, RESULTING IN HIGHER CURRENT AND
ANTICIPATED ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE WARMER SEA
SURFACE AND SUFFICIENT UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVENT THE
SYSTEM FROM DISSIPATING IN THE NEAR-TERM, HENCE THE FORECAST PERIOD
HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO 72 HOURS FOR THE CURRENT WARNING. TC 06P IS
EXPECTED TO TURN WESTWARD AND EVENTUALLY POLEWARD BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING
RIDGE. SLOW WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PERSISTS
AND ALONG-TRACK OCEAN TEMPERATURES REMAIN SUFFICIENT BUT MARGINAL.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT REGARDING THE FORECAST
TRACK, WITH INCREASING SPREAD BEYOND THE 72 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.
THE CURRENT JTWC TRACK FORECAST LIES NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z IS
14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z AND 072100Z.//
NNNN

[supercane]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A33 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 070127 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD05F EX-TC ULA CENTRE 998HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR
19.4S 175.2E AT 070000 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR MTSAT IR/VIS
IMAGERY. TD05F MOVING NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 04 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 30
KNOTS.



LLCC PARTIALLY EXPOSED. CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT MOSTLY TO THE
WEST OF LLCC BUT IS DECREASING IN AREAL EXTENT. DRY AIR INTRUDING
FROM THE WEST AND WRAPPING FROM THE NORTHEAST. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE
SOUTH. SST AROUND 27 DEGREES. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE IN A
LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. TD05 IS TRACKING NORTHWEST DUE TO THE
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON
0.3 WRAP YIELDS DT=2.0, MET=2.0 AND PT=2.0. FT BASED ON DT. THUS
YIELDING T2.0/2.5/W0.5/24HRS.


POTENTIAL FOR TD05F TO REDEVELOP IN TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS LOW.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 071200 UTC 18.8S 174.7E MOV NW AT 04KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 080000 UTC 18.4S 174.2E MOV NW AT 03KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 081200 UTC 18.2S 173.6E MOV NW AT 03KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 090000 UTC 18.1S 172.7E MOV WNW AT 03KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON ULA.

[euro6208]

GFS strengthens this to 972 mb as it rakes Aneityum Island, south of Port Vila in Vanuatu. New Caledonia is not out of the clear yet.

[supercane]

WTPS31 PGTW 070900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z --- NEAR 19.0S 175.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.0S 175.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 18.8S 174.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 18.7S 174.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 18.7S 173.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 19.0S 172.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 20.4S 170.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
070900Z POSITION NEAR 18.9S 174.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 201 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN
INCREASE IN DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION AS THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
HAS SLOWLY DECREASED IN THE PAST 12 HOURS. RECENT DVORAK ESTIMATES
FROM PGTW AND KNES HAVE BEEN STEADY, RANGING FROM 40 TO 45 KNOTS. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO REFLECT THE RECENT INCREASE
IN DEEP CONVECTION AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE RECENT SCATTEROMETRY
DATA. SURFACE CONDITIONS HAVE SEEN MARGINAL IMPROVEMENTS IN THE SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AS THE SYSTEM HAS
MOVED TO THE NORTHWEST INTO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. UPPER LEVEL
POLEWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS FAVORABLE, SUPPORTING THE RECENT IMPROVEMENT
IN ORGANIZATION. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST IS CREATING THE WEAK STEERING FLOW, BUT WILL
BEGIN TO IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK TO
THE WEST, TURNING TC 06P TO THE SOUTHWEST. AS TC ULA MOVES INTO A
LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, INCREASING VWS AND DECREASING SSTS WILL
LEAD TO THE DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS IMPROVED WITH DECREASING SPREAD, WITH THE CURRENT FORE-
CAST NEAR THE CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 072100Z AND 080900Z.//
NNNN

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A34 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 071220 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE ULA CENTRE 992HPA CATERGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2S
174.9E AT 070900 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR MTSAT IR IMAGERY.
CYCLONE MOVING NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 03 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE
AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 40 KNOTS.
EXPECT WNIDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 75 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.



CONVECTION HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY IN PAST 3 HOURS WITH PRIMARY
BANDS WRAPPING AROUND LLCC. ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD. DRY AIR WHICH
WAS PREVIOUSLY INTRUDING INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHEAST HAS
WEAKENED. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE SOUTH. SST AROUND 27 DEGREES. SYSTEM
LIES UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SYSTEM IS
TRACKING NORTHWEST DUE TO THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE
SOUTHWEST. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.7 WRAP YIELDS DT=3.0, MET AND
PAT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT. THUS YIELDING T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS.


MOST GLOBAL MODEL MAINTAIN AN INITIAL NORTHWEST TRACK WITH SOME
INTENSIFICATION.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 072100 UTC 19.0S 174.5E MOV NW AT 04KT WITH 40 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 080900 UTC 19.0S 174.0E MOV NW AT 03KT WITH 40 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 082100 UTC 19.1S 173.3E MOV NW AT 03KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 090900 UTC 19.4S 172.4E MOV WNW AT 03KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON ULA WILL BE ISSUED AT OR
AROUND 071400 UTC.

[supercane]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A35 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 071953 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE ULA CENTRE 985HPA CATERGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7S
174.5E AT 071800 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR MTSAT IR IMAGERY.
CYCLONE MOVING NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 04 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE
WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 50 KNOTS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 25 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 75 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 75 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 75 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTANT WITH PRIMARY BANDS WRAPPING AROUND
LLCC. ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE SOUTH. SST
AROUND 28 DEGREES. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. SYSTEM IS TRACKING NORTHWEST DUE TO THE SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.9 WRAP
YIELDS DT=3.5, MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT. THUS YIELDING
T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24HRS.


FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 080600 UTC 18.6S 174.0E MOV W AT 02KT WITH 55 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 081800 UTC 19.0S 174.0E MOV W AT 03KT WITH 55 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 090600 UTC 18.8S 172.6E MOV WSW AT 03KT WITH 55 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 091800 UTC 19.2S 171.7E MOV WSW AT 04KT WITH 55 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON ULA WILL BE ISSUED AT OR
AROUND 080200 UTC.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WTPS31 PGTW 072100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z --- NEAR 18.7S 174.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.7S 174.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 18.6S 174.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 18.7S 173.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 19.1S 172.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 19.7S 172.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 22.0S 170.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 26.3S 170.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 30.5S 174.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 18.7S 174.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06P (ULA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 225 NM WEST OF
SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 071909Z SSMIS 91
GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION AND COOLING
CLOUD TOPS SURROUNDING A DEVELOPING EYE FEATURE. BASED ON THESE
OBSERVATIONS, AND RECENT DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.5, THE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE HAS INCREASED TO 55 KNOTS. TC 06P HAS INTENSIFIED
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS DUE TO INCREASING ALONG TRACK SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH A SHIFT IN THE STORM TRACK TO THE
NORTHWEST, GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND LOW (10 TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. BASED ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY TREND AND GENERALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, FORECAST INTENSITIES HAVE INCREASED
INCREMENTALLY AND THE FORECAST PERIOD HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO 120
HOURS. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT WEAKENING OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST HAS RESULTED IN THE
OBSERVED SLOW TRANSLATIONAL SPEED. HOWEVER, THE STEERING FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, ACCELERATING THE SYSTEM
TOWARD AND AROUND THE STEERING RIDGE PERIPHERY THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. TC 06P IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE INTO THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN BY TAU 96 AND COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION BY TAU 120. THE NEAR-TERM FORECAST TRACK HAS SHIFTED
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, CONSISTENT WITH
OBSERVED TRENDS IN THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE. THE TRACK FORECAST
THROUGH TAU 72 IS SUPPORTED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BY GOOD DYNAMIC
MODEL AGREEMENT. MODEL SPREAD INCREASES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD,
RESULTING IN LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE TAU 72 THROUGH TAU 120 TRACK
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 17 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z AND 082100Z.//
NNNN

[supercane]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A36 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 080139 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE ULA CENTRE 985HPA CATERGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7S
174.5E AT 080000 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR MTSAT IR/VIS IMAGERY.
CYCLONE MOVING NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 04 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE
WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 50 KNOTS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 25 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED WITH PRIMARY BANDS WRAPPING AROUND
LLCC. CLOUD TOPS COOLING PAST 6 HOURS. ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD.
OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE SOUTH. SST AROUND 28 DEGREES. SYSTEM LIES UNDER
AN UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SYSTEM IS
TRACKING NORTHWEST DUE TO THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE
SOUTH. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.7 WRAP YIELDS DT=3.0, MET AND PT
AGREE. FT BASED ON DT. THUS YIELDING T3.0/3.5/D1.0/24HRS.


FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 081200 UTC 18.5S 173.7E MOV W AT 03KT WITH 55 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 090000 UTC 18.8S 173.0E MOV WSW AT 04KT WITH 55 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 091200 UTC 19.2S 172.1E MOV WSW AT 05KT WITH 55 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 100000 UTC 19.8S 171.1E MOV WSW AT 06KT WITH 55 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON ULA WILL BE ISSUED AT OR
AROUND 080800 UTC.

[supercane]

WTPS51 PGTW 080900
WARNING ATCG MIL 06P SWP 160108063319
2016010806 06P ULA 019 01 300 02 SATL 030
T000 184S 1742E 055 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 085 SE QD 080 SW QD 065 NW QD
T012 184S 1735E 060 R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 055 NE QD 085 SE QD 085 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 187S 1728E 065 R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 055 NE QD 085 SE QD 085 SW QD 060 NW QD
T036 195S 1716E 065 R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 055 NE QD 085 SE QD 085 SW QD 060 NW QD
T048 208S 1708E 065 R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 055 NE QD 085 SE QD 085 SW QD 060 NW QD
T072 242S 1703E 060 R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 065 NE QD 095 SE QD 080 SW QD 055 NW QD
T096 285S 1721E 045
T120 318S 1766E 035
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA) WARNING NR 019
<rest omitted to remarks>
REMARKS:
080900Z POSITION NEAR 18.4S 174.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240 NM WEST OF
SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BEEN BUILDING
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, WITH A SHARP EDGE ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE,
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVELS (10 TO 15 KNOTS) OF EASTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS), WHICH IS SUPPORTING THE FAVORABLE LEVELS OF
WESTERLY OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) REMAIN WEAKLY
FAVORABLE, IN THE 27 TO 28 DEGREES CELSIUS RANGE, AS TC 06P TRACKS
SLOWLY WESTWARD WITHIN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. IN THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS, A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
SYSTEM WILL BUILD BACK TO THE WEST, ENGAGING A STRONGER STEERING
ENVIRONMENT, TAKING TC ULA TO THE SOUTHWEST. DURING THIS PERIOD, A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL PROVIDE FOR A SLOW PERIOD OF DEVELOPMENT,
ALLOWING THE MAXIMUM INTENSITY TO REACH 65 KNOTS BY TAU 24, AND
PERSISTING THROUGH TAU 48. BEYOND THAT TIMEFRAME, DECREASING SSTS
AND A LESS FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL CAUSE A SLOW
WEAKENING TREND TO DEVELOP. IN THE LATER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST,
THESE INFLUENCES WILL BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED, WITH GREATER MID-
LATITUDE INTERACTION AROUND TAU 96 AND WILL BEGIN A TRANSITION OF
THE SYSTEM TO AN EXTRA-TROPICAL CIRCULATION. THE STR WILL BUILD OVER
THE FORECAST AREA, CAUSING AN EVENTUAL ACCELERATION INTO THE MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLIES BY TAU 120. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO AND LENDS HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 18
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z AND 090900Z.//

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A38 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 081347 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE ULA CENTRE 975HPA CATERGORY 3 WAS LOCATED
NEAR 18.5S 174.0E AT 081200 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR MTSAT IR
IMAGERY. CYCLONE MOVING NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 02 KNOTS. EXPECT SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 65 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 15 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,

OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,

OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.

DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED WITH PRIMARY BANDS WRAPPING AROUND
LLCC. EYE VISIBLE IN IR IMAGERY IN PAST 5 HOURS. ORGANISATION REMAINS
GOOD. OUTFLOW GOOD. SST AROUND 28 DEGREES. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER
RIDGE IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SYSTEM IS TRACKING
NORTHWEST DUE TO THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH. DVORAK
ANALYSIS BASED ON EYE PATTERN WITH 0W EYE IN LG SURROUND YIELDS
DT=4.5, MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT. THUS YIELDING
T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24HRS.


FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 090000 UTC 18.7S 173.3E MOV WSW AT 03KT WITH 65 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 091200 UTC 19.1S 172.4E MOV WSW AT 04KT WITH 65 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 100000 UTC 19.8S 171.4E MOV WSW AT 05KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 101200 UTC 20.9S 170.6E MOV lSW AT 05KT WITH 55 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON ULA WILL BE ISSUED AT OR
AROUND 082000 UTC.

[1900hurricane]

Certainly a nice recovery.

[supercane]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A39 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 081938 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE ULA CENTRE 970HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR
18.5S 173.7E AT 081800 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON HR MTSAT IR
IMAGERY. CYCLONE MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 02 KNOTS. EXPECT
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 65 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 15 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,
OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,

OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.


EYE CLOUD FILLED BUT STILL DISCERNIBLE. DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED
WITH CLOUD TOPS COOLING PAST 6 HOURS. ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD.
OUTFLOW GOOD. SST AROUND 27 TO 28 DEGREES. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER
DIFFLUENT REGION IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SYSTEM IS
TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWEST DUE TO THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE
SOUTH. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EYE PATTERN WITH MG EYE IN LG
SURROUND YIELDS DT=4.5, MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT. THUS
YIELDING T4.5/4.5/D1.0/24HRS.


FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 090600 UTC 18.9S 172.9E MOV WSW AT 04KT WITH 70 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 091800 UTC 19.4S 171.9E MOV WSW AT 05KT WITH 70 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 100600 UTC 20.2S 171.1E MOV SW AT 06KT WITH 70 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 101800 UTC 21.3S 170.4E MOV SSW AT 06KT WITH 70 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON ULA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
090200UTC.

[supercane]

WTPS51 PGTW 082100
WARNING ATCG MIL 06P SWP 160108202353
2016010818 06P ULA 020 01 235 03 SATL 010
T000 186S 1737E 080 R064 015 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 065 SE QD 065 SW QD 070 NW QD
T012 190S 1728E 090 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 075 SE QD 065 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 085 NE QD 110 SE QD 095 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 197S 1717E 100 R064 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 075 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 130 SE QD 115 SW QD 095 NW QD
T036 209S 1708E 110 R064 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 105 NW QD
T048 222S 1701E 105 R064 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 075 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 140 SE QD 130 SW QD 110 NW QD
T072 266S 1711E 080 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 070 SE QD 065 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 135 SE QD 130 SW QD 120 NW QD
T096 298S 1737E 055
T120 319S 1781E 035
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA) WARNING NR 020
<rest omitted to remarks>
REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 18.7S 173.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06P (ULA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 476 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 081856Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT SIGNIFICANT
IMPROVEMENT IN THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WITH DEEP CONVECTION
SURROUNDING A 6-NM EYE THAT SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. IN RESPONSE, AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE
INCREASED, RANGING FROM T4.5 TO T5.0 (77-90 KNOTS). THE INTENSITY
HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 80 KNOTS BASED ON THE SATELLITE FIXES AND
SUPPORTED BY A RECENT SATCON INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 77 KNOTS.
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE PERSISTED WITH AN
ANTICYCLONE ABOVE THE CYCLONE PRODUCING LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) AND STRONG DIVERGENT OUTFLOW. IN ADDITION, SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE NEAR 28 CELSIUS. TC 06P IS IN THE PROCESS OF
TRANSITIONING TO THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT STEERING
MECHANISM THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS SUPPORTING A CONTINUED
INTENSIFICATION, REACHING A PEAK OF 110 KNOTS. BEYOND TAU 36, VWS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AND SSTS WILL DECREASE, BEGINNING THE
WEAKENING TREND. TC ULA WILL FURTHER WEAKEN AS THE SYSTEM
ACCELERATES SOUTHWARD AND THEN SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE WEAK
BAROCLINIC ZONE. TC 06P WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT)
NEAR TAU96 AS IT EMBEDS IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW AND WILL
COMPLETE ETT BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT, LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z
IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z AND 092100Z.//

[supercane]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A40 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 090126 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE ULA CENTRE 970HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR
18.5S 173.3E AT 090000 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON HR MTSAT/VIS IR
IMAGERY. CYCLONE MOVING WEST AT ABOUT 03 KNOTS. EXPECT SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 70 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 15 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,

OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,

AND OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.


EYE PARTIALLY CLOUD FILLED. EYE WARMING PAST 6 HOURS. DEEP CONVECTION
HAS INCREASED WITH CLOUD TOPS COOLING PAST 3 HOURS. ORGANISATION
REMAINS GOOD. OUTFLOW GOOD. SST AROUND 27 TO 28 DEGREES. SYSTEM LIES
UNDER A STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE REGION IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. SYSTEM IS TRACKING WEST DUE TO THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EYE PATTERN WITH
OW EYE IN MG SURROUND YIELDS DT=4.5, MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON
DT. THUS YIELDING T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24HRS.


FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 091200 UTC 19.0S 172.2E MOV WSW AT 06KT WITH 70 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 100000 UTC 19.9S 171.1E MOV SW AT 05KT WITH 70 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 101200 UTC 21.0S 170.2E MOV SW AT 07KT WITH 70 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 110000 UTC 22.6S 169.8E MOV SSW AT 08KT WITH 70 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON ULA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
090800UTC.

[supercane]

WTPS51 PGTW 090900
WARNING ATCG MIL 06P SWP 160109071524
2016010906 06P ULA 021 01 230 06 SATL 010
T000 189S 1729E 090 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 065 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 065 NW QD
T012 198S 1719E 095 R064 015 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 209S 1710E 100 R064 015 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 075 SE QD 075 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 105 SE QD 105 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 224S 1705E 095 R064 015 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 075 SE QD 075 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 105 SE QD 105 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 244S 1707E 080 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD
T072 293S 1734E 050 R034 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD
T096 319S 1777E 030
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA) WARNING NR 021
<rest omitted down to remarks>
REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 19.1S 172.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 317 NM WEST OF
SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A 090437Z SSMIS
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW THAT ULA HAS SLIGHTLY INCREASED IN INTENSITY,
WITH A 10-NM EYE THAT SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES HAVE
INCREASED TO 5.0/5.0 AND THEREFORE THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED
TO 90 KNOTS. TC 06P CONTINUES TO TRACK IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT,
WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), STRONG OUTFLOW ALOFT AND HIGH SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 28 CELSIUS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
ALLOWING TC 06P TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY TO 100 KNOTS BY TAU
24. BY TAU 36, TC 06P WILL BE AT THE CREST OF THE RIDGE AXIS TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND BEGIN TURNING TO THE SOUTH, WHILE SIMULTANEOUSLY
WEAKENING AS VWS INCREASES AND IT TRACKS OVER COLDER WATERS. BY TAU
72, TC 06P WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE OVER WATER AS IT COMES UNDER THE
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW AND WILL BE COMPLETELY DISSIPATED OVER
WATER BY TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
TAU 72 LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
092100Z AND 100900Z.//

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A42 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 091312 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE ULA CENTRE 965HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR
19.1S 172.4E AT 091200 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON HR MTSAT IR
IMAGERY. CYCLONE MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 04 KNOTS. EXPECT
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 80 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 15 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,

OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,

AND OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.


EYE WELL DEFINED IN PAST 6 HOURS WITH CLOUD TOPS COOLING. DEEP
CONVECTION HAS INCREASED WITH CLOUD TOPS COOLING PAST 3 HOURS.
ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD. OUTFLOW GOOD. SST AROUND 27 TO 28 DEGREES.
SYSTEM LIES UNDER A STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE REGION IN A LOW TO
MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SYSTEM IS TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWEST DUE
TO THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. DVORAK ANALYSIS
BASED ON EYE PATTERN WITH WMG EYE IN MG SURROUND YIELDS DT=5.0, MET
AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT. THUS YIELDING T5.0/5.0/D1.5/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN A WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
BEFORE TURNING IT SOUTHWESTWARD WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING.


FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 100000 UTC 20.0S 171.4E MOV SW AT 07KT WITH 80 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 101200 UTC 21.3S 170.6E MOV SW AT 07KT WITH 80 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 110000 UTC 23.1S 170.4E MOV SSW AT 07KT WITH 75 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 111200 UTC 25.4S 170.9E MOV SSW AT 08KT WITH 70 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON ULA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
092000UTC.

[euro6208]

06P ULA 160109 1200 19.1S 172.3E SHEM 95 952

Up to 95 knots.

[euro6208]

TPPS12 PGTW 091504

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA)

B. 09/1430Z

C. 19.18S

D. 172.11E

E. THREE/HMWRI8

F. T5.5/5.5/D1.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY LG
YIELDS AN E# OF 5.0. ADDED 1.0 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD A DT
OF 6.0. MET AND PT YIELD A 5.5. DBO MET.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
09/1018Z 19.02S 172.58E MMHS
09/1136Z 19.03S 172.37E GPMI


BERMEA

[euro6208]

Still intensifying...