SPAC: ULA - Post-Tropical

[1900hurricane]

Looks like someone forgot to mention the eye adjustment in the remarks.

TPPS12 PGTW 091811

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA)

B. 09/1730Z

C. 19.34S

D. 171.90E

E. ONE/HMWRI8

F. T6.0/6.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 01A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURR LG YIELDS DT 5.0.
MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


DARLOW

[1900hurricane]

18Z JTWC track update ups Ula to 115 kt, making it the first SSHWS category 4 of 2016.

[supercane]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A43 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 092000 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE ULA CENTRE 950HPA CATEGORY 4 WAS LOCATED NEAR
19.4S 171.9E AT 091800 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON HR MTSAT IR
IMAGERY. CYCLONE MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 05 KNOTS. EXPECT
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 95 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,

OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,

AND OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.


EYE WELL DEFINED.DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED WITH CLOUD TOPS
COOLING PAST 3 HOURS. ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD. OUTFLOW GOOD. SST
AROUND 27 TO 28 DEGREES. SYSTEM LIES UNDER A STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE
REGION IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. OLA IS BEING STEERED
TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST BY THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE
SOUTHEAST. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EYE PATTERN WITH WMG EYE IN LG
SURROUND YIELDS DT=5.5, MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT. THUS
YIELDING T5.5/5.5/D1.0/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN A SOUTHWEST TRACK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE
TURNING IT SOUTHWARDS WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING.


FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 100600 UTC 20.4S 171.0E MOV SW AT 07KT WITH 95 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 101600 UTC 21.8S 170.4E MOV SSW AT 07KT WITH 95 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 110600 UTC 23.7S 170.4E MOV S AT 10KT WITH 75 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 111800 UTC 26.0S 171.1E MOV SSE AT 10KT WITH 70 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON ULA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
092000UTC.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WTPS51 PGTW 092100
WARNING ATCG MIL 06P SWP 160109202755
2016010918 06P ULA 022 01 235 06 SATL 020
T000 194S 1718E 115 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 125 SE QD 105 SW QD 080 NW QD
T012 204S 1707E 125 R064 030 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW QD 085 NW QD
T024 217S 1701E 120 R064 030 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW QD 085 NW QD
T036 236S 1702E 095 R064 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 125 SE QD 105 SW QD 075 NW QD
T048 265S 1712E 070 R064 015 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 085 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 070 NW QD
T072 311S 1764E 030
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA) WARNING NR 022
<rest omitted to comments>
REMARKS:
092100Z POSITION NEAR 19.7S 171.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06P (ULA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 358 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION WITHIN THE
CONVECTIVE CORE OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS WHICH SUPPORTS THE INCREASE IN
INTENSITY TO 115 KNOTS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO
T6.0 (115 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES. TC ULA IS ENCOUNTERING
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS), SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) NEAR 27 CELSIUS, AND GOOD
DIVERGENT OUTFLOW. THE CURRENT POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE 20NM EYE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED
INTENSIFICATION. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST.
NEAR TAU 24, TC 06P WILL REACH THE AXIS OF THE STEERING RIDGE AND
TURN POLEWARD. AFTERWARDS, THE CYCLONE WILL ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD
WHERE IT WILL ENCOUNTER MODERATE TO HIGH VWS AND COOLING SSTS. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL ERODE THE CORE STRUCTURE AND THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY
WEAKEN. TC ULA WILL FULLY DISSIPATE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WHICH SUPPORTS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z AND 102100Z.//

[supercane]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A44 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 100136 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE ULA CENTRE 945HPA CATEGORY 4 WAS LOCATED NEAR
19.9S 171.2E AT 100000 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON HR MTSAT IR/vis
IMAGERY. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 07 KNOTS. EXPECT SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 100 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 25 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,

OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 45 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,

OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN
EAST SEMICIRCLE
AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN WEST
SEMICIRCLE.


EYE WELL DEFINED.DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED WITH CLOUD TOPS
COOLING PAST 6 HOURS. ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD. OUTFLOW GOOD. SST
AROUND 27 TO 28 DEGREES. SYSTEM LIES UNDER A STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE
REGION IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. OLA IS BEING STEERED TO THE
SOUTHWEST BY THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. DVORAK
ANALYSIS BASED ON EYE PATTERN WITH WMG EYE IN LG SURROUND WITH EYE
ADJUSTMENT FOR W RING YIELDS DT=6.0, MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON
DT. THUS YIELDING T6.0/6.0/D1.5/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN A SOUTHWEST TRACK FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS BEFORE
TURNING IT SOUTHWARDS.


FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 101200 UTC 21.4S 170.3E MOV SW AT 07KT WITH 100 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 110000 UTC 22.7S 170.0E MOV SSW AT 08KT WITH 95 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 111200 UTC 24.9S 170.4E MOV S AT 10KT WITH 75 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 120000 UTC 27.1S 171.4E MOV SSE AT 11KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON ULA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
100800UTC.

[stormwise]

http://www.meteo.gov.vu/TropicalCyclone ... fault.aspx

[supercane]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A45 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 100744 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE ULA CENTRE 945HPA CATEGORY 4 WAS LOCATED NEAR
20.2S 170.7E AT 100500 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON HR MTSAT IR
IMAGERY. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 07 KNOTS. EXPECT SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 100 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 25 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,

OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 45 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,

OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN
EAST SEMICIRCLE
AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN WEST
SEMICIRCLE.


EYE WELL DEFINED.DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED WITH CLOUD TOPS
COOLING PAST 6 HOURS. ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD. OUTFLOW GOOD. SST
AROUND 27 TO 28 DEGREES. SYSTEM LIES UNDER A STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE
REGION IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. ULA IS BEING STEERED TO THE
SOUTHWEST BY THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. DVORAK
ANALYSIS BASED ON EYE PATTERN WITH OW EYE IN B SURROUND WITH EYE
ADJUSTMENT YIELDS DT=6.0, MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT. THUS
YIELDING T6.0/6.0/D1.5/23HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN A SOUTHWEST TRACK FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS BEFORE
TURNING IT SOUTHWARDS.


FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 101700 UTC 21.5S 170.0E MOV SSW AT 07KT WITH 100
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 110500 UTC 23.2S 169.9E MOV SSW AT 08KT WITH 100
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 111700 UTC 25.1S 170.3E MOV S AT 08KT WITH 95 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 120500 UTC 26.9S 171.2E MOV S AT 08KT WITH 90 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON ULA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
101400UTC.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WTPS51 PGTW 100900
WARNING ATCG MIL 06P SWP 160110072850
2016011006 06P ULA 023 01 225 10 SATL 010
T000 205S 1706E 115 R064 015 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 035 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW QD 085 NW QD
T012 223S 1698E 115 R064 015 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 035 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW QD 085 NW QD
T024 245S 1700E 100 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 075 NW QD
T036 266S 1710E 075 R064 005 NE QD 005 SE QD 005 SW QD 005 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 025 SE QD 015 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 125 SE QD 105 SW QD 075 NW QD
T048 287S 1730E 050 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 070 NW QD
T072 318S 1789E 030
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA) WARNING NR 023
<rest omitted down to comments>
REMARKS:
100900Z POSITION NEAR 20.9S 170.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06P (ULA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 269 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATED THAT TC 06P HAS MAINTAINED A WELL DEFINED 14-NM EYE OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES HAVE
ALSO MAINTAINED AT T6.0; WARNING INTENSITY THEREFORE REMAINS AT 115
KNOTS. TC 06P REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF LESS THAN 10 KNOTS, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SSTS) NEAR 27 CELSIUS, AND GOOD DIVERGENT OUTFLOW. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE 14-NM EYE. TC
06P CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
DEEP-LAYER SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE AND WILL REACH THE RIDGE AXIS BY TAU 12
AND TURN MORE SOUTHWARD. AFTERWARDS, THE CYCLONE WILL ACCELERATE
SOUTHEASTWARD WHERE IT WILL ENCOUNTER MODERATE TO HIGH VWS AND
COOLING SSTS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL ERODE THE CORE STRUCTURE AND THE
SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN. TC ULA WILL FULLY DISSIPATE BY THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY
FLOW. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WHICH
SUPPORTS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
102100Z AND 110900Z.//

[supercane]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A46 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 101358 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE ULA CENTRE 945HPA CATEGORY 4 WAS LOCATED NEAR
21.0S 170.7E AT 101100 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON HR MTSAT IR
IMAGERY. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 07 KNOTS. EXPECT SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 100 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 25 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,

OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 45 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,

OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN
EAST SEMICIRCLE
AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN WEST
SEMICIRCLE.


EYE WELL DEFINED. CLOUD TOPS COOLING PAST 12 HOURS BUT HAS DECREASED
IN RADIAL EXTENT. ORGANISATION GOOD. OUTFLOW GOOD. SST AROUND 27 TO
28 DEGREES. SYSTEM LIES UNDER A STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE REGION IN A
LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. ULA IS BEING STEERED TO THE SOUTHWEST BY THE
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON
EYE PATTERN WITH OW EYE IN LG SURROUND WITH EYE ADJUSTMENT YIELDS
DT=5.5, MET AND PT HELD HIGHER AT 6.0. FT BASED ON DT. THUS YIELDING
T5.5/6.0/D1.5/23HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN A SOUTHWEST TRACK FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS BEFORE
TURNING IT SOUTHWARDS.


FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 102300 UTC 22.8S 169.9E MOV SSW AT 09KT WITH 100
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 111100 UTC 24.9S 170.3E MOV S AT 10KT WITH 100 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 111700 UTC 27.2S 171.4E MOV S AT 10KT WITH 85 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 121100 UTC 29.0S 173.2E MOV SSE AT 11KT WITH 70 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON ULA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
102000UTC.

[supercane]

WTPS51 PGTW 102100
WARNING ATCG MIL 06P SWP 160110185907
2016011018 06P ULA 024 01 195 08 SATL 010
T000 221S 1701E 105 R064 015 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 025 NE QD 035 SE QD 020 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 095 SE QD 070 SW QD 045 NW QD
T012 243S 1701E 090 R064 015 NE QD 015 SE QD 010 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW QD 045 NW QD
T024 267S 1713E 070 R064 005 NE QD 010 SE QD 005 SW QD 005 NW QD R050 015 NE QD 025 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 055 NE QD 105 SE QD 085 SW QD 045 NW QD
T036 292S 1736E 055 R050 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 015 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 055 NE QD 105 SE QD 085 SW QD 045 NW QD
T048 308S 1763E 040 R034 055 NE QD 100 SE QD 095 SW QD 045 NW QD
T072 331S 1761W 025
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA) WARNING NR 024
<rest omitted>
REMARKS:
102100Z POSITION NEAR 22.6S 170.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06P (ULA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 222 NM EAST
OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A DETERIORATING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE THAT
HAS BECOME MORE ASYMMETRIC AND ELONGATED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS DUE
TO INCREASED NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ADDITIONALLY, THE
CYCLONE HAS NEARLY LOST ITS EYE FEATURE AND CLOUD TOPS WITHIN THE
CORE HAVE WARMED. A 101525Z SSMI 85GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE STILL SHOWS A
WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE; HOWEVER, THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS PUSHED
TO THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT AND DRY AIR HAS WRAPPED AROUND THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR LOOP AND AN
ASSESSMENT OF SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND PHFO WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED BASED ON DECLINING
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES AND SUPPORTS THE
WEAKENING SEEN IN ALL IMAGERY. UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER
CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION DUE TO MODERATE TO HIGH VWS AND COOLER
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TC 06P IS APPROACHING THE WESTERN AXIS OF
THE STEERING SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR). OVER THE NEXT SIX HOURS THE
CYCLONE WILL ROUND THE STR AXIS AND ACCELERATE TO THE SOUTHEAST. VWS
WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE AND SSTS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE,
ACCELERATING THE WEAKENING TREND. TC ULA WILL FULLY DISSIPATE BY THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLY FLOW. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT
WHICH SUPPORTS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
110900Z AND 112100Z.//

[supercane]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A47 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 110156 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE ULA CENTRE 965HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR
22.9S 169.9E AT 110000 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR MTSAT IR/VIS
IMAGERY. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 09 KNOTS. EXPECT
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 850 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 25 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,

OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 45 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,

OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN
EAST SEMICIRCLE
AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN WEST
SEMICIRCLE.

DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED WITH CLOUD TOPS WARMING PAST 6 HOURS.
ORGANISATION HAS DECREASED SLIGHTLY PAST 6 HOURS. OUTFLOW GOOD. SST
AROUND 26 TO 27 DEGREES. SYSTEM LIES UNDER A STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE
REGION IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. ULA IS BEING STEERED
TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE
SOUTHEAST. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EMBEDDED CENTRE PATTERN WITH MG
SURROUND AND EYE ADJUSTMENT YEILDS DT=4.5, MET=5.0 AND PT=4.5. FT
BASED ON DT. THUS YIELDING T4.5/5.0/W1.5/24HRS.



FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 111200 UTC 25.2S 170.5E MOV SSE AT 12KT WITH 65 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 120000 UTC 27.5S 172.1E MOV SSE AT 13KT WITH 55 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE


THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON ULA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
110800 UTC.

[RattleMan]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A47 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 110156 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE ULA CENTRE 965HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR
22.9S 169.9E AT 110000 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR MTSAT IR/VIS
IMAGERY. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 09 KNOTS. EXPECT
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 850 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 25 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,

Ula is now the strongest tropical cyclone ever.

[supercane]

WTPS51 PGTW 110900
WARNING ATCG MIL 06P SWP 160111065425
2016011106 06P ULA 025 01 175 11 SATL 030
T000 240S 1701E 090 R064 015 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 045 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 065 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 065 NW QD
T012 263S 1712E 075 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 045 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 045 NW QD
T024 283S 1732E 060 R050 015 NE QD 025 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 045 NE QD 075 SE QD 075 SW QD 045 NW QD
T036 300S 1757E 045 R034 040 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 040 NW QD
T048 313S 1795E 030
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA) WARNING NR 025
<rest omitted to remarks>
REMARKS:
110900Z POSITION NEAR 24.6S 170.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06P (ULA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 249 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED VISIBLE (VIS) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A DETERIORATING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AND A CLOUD
COVERED AND INDISTINCT CENTER. A 100355Z SSMI 85GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
INDICATES THAT THE EYE FEATURE IS WEAKENING ON THE NORTHERN SIDE,
WITH ALL DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE
CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE VIS LOOP AND AN
ASSESSMENT OF SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND PHFO WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED SLIGHTLY BASED ON
DECLINING INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES AND IS SUPPORTED BY
THE WEAKENING SEEN IN ALL IMAGERY. TC 06P IS MOVING INTO A VERY
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TC 06P HAS PASSED THE
AXIS OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND HAS TURNED JUST EAST OF
SOUTHWARD AND BEGUN TO ACCELERATE IN FOWARD MOTION. OVER THE NEXT 12
HOURS TC 06P WILL RAPIDLY ACCELERATE TO THE SOUTHEAST. VWS
WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE AND SSTS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE, ALLOWING
FOR RAPID WEAKENING. TC ULA WILL FULLY DISSIPATE BY THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLY FLOW. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT
WHICH SUPPORTS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 112100Z AND 120900Z.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ZCZC 886
WHNZ41 NZKL 111301
HURRICANE WARNING 107
THIS AFFECTS OCEAN AREA: SUBTROPIC
TROPICAL CYCLONE ULA 970HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.9 SOUTH 170.
4 EAST AT 111200 UTC.
POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 24.9S 170.4E AT 111200 UTC.
CYCLONE IS MOVING SOUTHSOUTHEAST 14 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 85 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE WITH
PHENOMENAL SEA.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 25 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE
SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE
NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE WITH HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEA AND MODERATE TO
HEAVY SWELL.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 110 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN
THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE WITH VERY ROUGH SEA AND MODERATE TO HEAVY SWELL.
FORECAST POSITION NEAR 26.9S 171.4E AT 120000 UTC
AND NEAR 28.7S 173.3E AT 121200 UTC.
THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 105.
NNNN

[supercane]

ZCZC 783
WTNZ41 NZKL 111915
STORM WARNING 111
THIS AFFECTS OCEAN AREA: SUBTROPIC
TROPICAL CYCLONE ULA 975HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.8 SOUTH 170.
8 EAST AT 111800 UTC.
POSITION POOR.
REPEAT POSITION 25.8S 170.8E AT 111800 UTC.
CYCLONE IS MOVING SOUTHSOUTHEAST 10 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 60 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE EASING TO 50
KNOTS BY 120600 UTC AND THEN EASING TO 40 KNOTS BY 121800 UTC WITH
HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEA AND MODERATE TO HEAVY SWELL EASING.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE
SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE
NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 110 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN
THE SECTOR FROM NORTH THROUGH EAST TO SOUTHWEST AND WITHIN 80
NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SECTOR FROM SOUTHWEST THROUGH
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WITH VERY ROUGH SEA AND MODERATE TO HEAVY SWELL.
FORECAST POSITION NEAR 27.6S 171.7E AT 120600 UTC
AND NEAR 28.9S 173.4E AT 121800 UTC.
THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 107.
NNNN

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WTPS51 PGTW 112100
WARNING ATCG MIL 06P SWP 160111194203
2016011118 06P ULA 026 01 160 12 SATL 060
T000 261S 1709E 065 R050 055 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 110 SE QD 085 SW QD 065 NW QD
T012 281S 1728E 050 R034 080 NE QD 095 SE QD 080 SW QD 055 NW QD
T024 296S 1754E 040 R034 075 NE QD 065 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 305S 1784E 035
AMP
024HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
036HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA) WARNING NR 026
<rest omitted>
REMARKS:
112100Z POSITION NEAR 26.6S 171.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 356 NM SOUTHEAST OF
NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS WHAT APPEARS
TO BE A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS BEEN INCREASING OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND
IS CURRENTLY AT HIGH LEVELS (25 TO 35 KNOTS). THE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE UNFAVORABLE AT 25 CELSIUS AND EXPECTED TO
STEADILY DECREASE AS TC 06P MOVES FURTHER SOUTHWARD. THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN EXTENT OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS. DRY AIR INTRUSION
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY IN COMBINATION WITH THE COOLING SSTS
WILL BEGIN THE TRANSITION OF THE SYSTEM TO AN EXTRA-TROPICAL (ET)
CIRCULATION BY TAU 24. TC 06P IS EXPECTED TO BE FULLY ET BY TAU 36.
THIS IS A SHIFT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST INDICATING A DISSIPATION
SCENARIO DUE TO MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING LLCC WILL PERSIST AS AN ET
SYSTEM BEYOND TAU 36. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
TAU 36, LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
120900Z AND 122100Z.//