CPAC: PALI - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach · 1m1 minute ago
#Pali is a 70-kt hurricane at 4.2N. Only Sarah (1958) and Bopha (2012) in the NW Pac were stronger at lower latitude

[1900hurricane]

I have my doubts that Pali is still a hurricane. The system is struggling with southerly shear right now.

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE PALI DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012016
1100 AM HST WED JAN 13 2016

PALI CONTINUES ON ITS UNUSUAL JANUARY JOURNEY THROUGH THE FAR
SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN. THE INITIAL MOTION IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 200/6 OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...BASED PARTLY ON
A SMALL ADJUSTMENT TO THE 12 UTC POSITION USING MICROWAVE IMAGERY
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CORE CONTINUES TO
BE DISRUPTED...PERHAPS IN PART DUE TO THE MODERATE SOUTHWEST SHEAR
OF 15 TO 20 KT ANALYZED OVER THE SYSTEM FROM THE UW-CIMSS AND SHIPS
ANALYSES. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 70 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF
FINAL-T AND CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS FROM HFO...JTWC...SAB...AND
THE CIMSS ADT. OUR ESTIMATE COULD BE GENEROUS...AS THE CIMSS SATCON
ESTIMATE WAS ONLY 58 KT.

PALI/S UNUSUAL SOUTHWARD MOTION CONTINUES TODAY. THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE IS ON THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG DEEP LAYER
RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS TO WAKE
ISLAND. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH 48
HOURS WITH PALI MAKING A BROAD ARC AS IT TRANSITIONS FROM A
SOUTHWARD MOTION TO A MORE WESTWARD MOTION TO THE SOUTH OF THE
RIDGE. ALTHOUGH THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS WELL-CLUSTERED AFTER 48
HOURS...MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN THE SPEED OF PALI APPEAR IN THE
GUIDANCE AFTER 48 HOURS...WITH THE GFS TRACKING THE SYSTEM WESTWARD
MUCH FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. IT IS DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN THE REASON
FOR THIS DIFFERENCE...BUT RECENT RUNS OF THE ECMWF HAVE HAD SOME
DIFFICULTY RESOLVING THE TRACK OF THE CYCLONE SO CLOSE TO THE
EQUATOR. THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST CHANGES LITTLE FROM THE
PREVIOUS ONE...AND CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.

MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...AS WELL AS PALI/S PROXIMITY TO THE
EQUATOR...IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A WEAKENING TREND
THROUGH 48 HOURS. AFTERWARD...THE MODELS SHOW SHEAR WEAKENING ALONG
THE FORECAST TRACK...AND PLENTY OF WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. IF
PALI CAN SURVIVE IT/S CLOSE ENCOUNTER WITH THE EQUATOR...
REINTENSIFICATION WILL BE POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
PACIFIC. THE CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS RATHER LOW...
HOWEVER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/2100Z 3.4N 171.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 14/0600Z 2.8N 172.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 14/1800Z 2.3N 173.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 15/0600Z 2.1N 174.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 15/1800Z 1.9N 176.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 16/1800Z 2.0N 178.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 17/1800Z 2.3N 178.5E 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 18/1800Z 3.2N 175.7E 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
FORECASTER R BALLARD

[EquusStorm]

If Pali survives and does move below 2*N as per the forecast track, that's going to be amazing, especially since it seems as though it will reach that point before moving into the WPAC and thus break even more records as it goes. Such a bizarre storm... and quite a persistent one for January. I almost wish for more of these westerly wind bursts before the official start of the season to see what other bizarre storms the basin can conjure up lol. Fascinating start to both the CPAC and the ATL this year.

[wxman57]

Looking at the latest visible loop, I wouldn't upgrade Pali to a depression. I see very little rotation, little convection, and an outflow boundary moving southward. No way this is a hurricane.

[stormwise]

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wi ... .096,3.285

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wi ... .096,3.285

[NotoSans]

I doubt it's a hurricane

[stormwise]

Nobody would disagree with the satellite presentation, its the PV that is questionable even a modest TS would cause complications over those atoll's downstream if the storm continues to verify .

[1900hurricane]

The 18Z track position had Pali at 3.6*N and the 21Z advisory position placed it at 3.4*N, which technically means it was analyzed further south than Bopha at similar intensity (75 kt at 4.1*N) and just shy of Sarah '56 (75 kt at 3.3*N), making Pali the second furthest south tropical cyclone of 70 kt or greater. However, I would be shocked if some intensity revision didn't take place, so Pali will likely not hold that position in the records when it's all said and done.

[NotoSans]

00Z best track down to 55kt (still too high IMO), probably based on consensus T3.0/4.0 estimates.
CP, 01, 2016011400, , BEST, 0, 29N, 1719W, 55, 993, TS, 34, NEQ, 90, 70, 70, 90, 1009, 150, 10, 0, 0, C, 0, , 0, 0, PALI, D,

Latest RSCAT pass. Definitely not impressive.

[stormwise]

With only a 5 kilometre inner-ring adt data likely had merit.

ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 14 JAN 2016 Time : 010000 UTC
Lat : 3:07:22 N Lon : 171:53:05 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.7 / 981.7mb/ 82.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.7 4.7 3.5

Center Temp : -49.0C Cloud Region Temp : -45.1C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : MW HOLD
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 80km
- Environmental MSLP : 1011mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 42.9 degrees

[WeatherGuesser]

Post on the Alex thread says this is the first time advisories are being issued in January by both the NHC and CPHC.

[cycloneye]

Pali may not survive for too long.

TROPICAL STORM PALI DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012016
500 PM HST WED JAN 13 2016

THE SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE PRESENTATION OF PALI HAS DEGRADED
QUICKLY DURING THE DAY TODAY. THE CORE CONVECTION HAS ALL BUT
DISSIPATED...ALTHOUGH REMNANT HIGH CLOUDS ARE STILL MOSTLY OBSCURING
THE CENTER. THE HIGHER SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL RESOLUTION OF THE
HIMAWARI-8 IMAGERY WAS HELPFUL IN IDENTIFYING WHAT MAY BE THE
LOW LEVEL CENTER THROUGH THIN SPOTS IN THE CIRRUS. INTENSITY
ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO DROP RAPIDLY...WITH ALL THREE SATELLITE
AGENCIES GIVING FINAL-T NUMBERS OF 3.0 AND CI NUMBERS OF 4.0 /HELD
UP BY DVORAK CONSTRAINTS/. HAVE OPTED FOR A BLEND OF THESE VALUES TO
GO WITH A CURRENT INTENSITY OF 55 KT...WHICH MAY STILL BE GENEROUS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 200/8. THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE IS ON THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG DEEP LAYER
RIDGE THAT EXTENDS ROUGHLY FROM THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS TO WAKE
ISLAND. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT
48 HOURS WITH PALI MAKING A BROAD ARC AS IT GRADUALLY TRANSITIONS TO
A MORE WESTWARD MOTION. ALTHOUGH THE GUIDANCE TRACKS REMAIN
WELL-CLUSTERED AFTER 48 HOURS...MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN THE SPEED OF
THE CYCLONE APPEAR IN THAT TIME RANGE...WITH THE GFS TRACKING THE
SYSTEM WESTWARD MUCH FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. THE LATEST OFFICIAL
FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE AND SO ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE TRACK.

MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OF 20 TO 25 KT...AS WELL AS PALI/S
PROXIMITY TO THE EQUATOR... IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO RESULT IN
WEAKENING THROUGH 36 HOURS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST DURING THIS
PERIOD IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE HWRF...WEAKENING THE SYSTEM FASTER
THAN THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. AFTERWARD...THE MODELS SHOW SHEAR
WEAKENING ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...AND PLENTY OF WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. IF PALI MANAGES TO SURVIVE IT/S CLOSE ENCOUNTER WITH
THE EQUATOR...REINTENSIFICATION WILL BE POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES INTO
THE WESTERN PACIFIC. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL SHOWS THIS...BUT
NOT AS AGGRESSIVELY AS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE...WHICH MAKES PALI A
HURRICANE AGAIN IN 4 DAYS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0300Z 2.7N 172.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 2.2N 173.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 15/0000Z 1.8N 174.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 15/1200Z 1.4N 175.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 16/0000Z 1.4N 177.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 17/0000Z 1.7N 179.5E 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 18/0000Z 2.3N 176.8E 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 19/0000Z 3.0N 174.0E 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
FORECASTER R BALLARD

[1900hurricane]

Things will get more favorable in a couple of days, but it's going to be dicey until then. Pali has already survived one near-death experience (dry air almost completely consumed it several days ago), but considering the sad current state, I'm not sure it can do it again.

[NotoSans]

Dvorak estimates are badly constrained right now.

TXPN28 KNES 140547
TCSCNP

A. 01C (PALI)

B. 14/0530Z

C. 2.1N

D. 171.7W

E. FIVE/GOES-W

F. T2.5/3.5/W1.5/12HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS...LACK OF ORGANIZED LLCC AND NO MEASURABLE BANDING YIELD
DT OF TWTC. MET=3.0 WITH PT=2.5. FT IS BASED ON CONSTRAINT OF NOT
WEAKENING MORE THAN 1.5 T-NUM OVER 12HRS.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SALEMI

[stormwise]

If Pali survives and does move below 2*N as per the forecast track, that's going to be amazing, especially since it seems as though it will reach that point before moving into the WPAC and thus break even more records as it goes. Such a bizarre storm... and quite a persistent one for January. I almost wish for more of these westerly wind bursts before the official start of the season to see what other bizarre storms the basin can conjure up lol. Fascinating start to both the CPAC and the ATL this year.

Canadian is trending another similar cyclone is to follow in the CPAC. Will records continue to tumble considering 2015 had two cyclones landfall a desert and who will ever forget Hurricane 'PATRICIA'.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM PALI DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012016
1100 PM HST WED JAN 13 2016

PALI CONTINUES ON A SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING TREND THAT BEGAN YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH RAPID WEAKENING OBSERVED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.
ASIDE FROM THE RECENT DEVELOPMENT OF AN ISOLATED CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES
SHOW THAT ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION IS WANING...WITH COLD CLOUD
TOPS STEADILY WARMING AND DIMINISHING IN AREA. RECENT MICROWAVE
OVERPASSES INCLUDE A 0437Z AMSU-B PASS AND A 0628Z SSMIS PASS...AND
BOTH REVEALED LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ORGANIZED STRUCTURE WITHIN THE
DISSIPATING CONVECTION. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
CONTINUE TO DROP RAPIDLY...WITH DATA-T VALUES DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE
DUE TO THE LACK OF CONVECTION. REGARDLESS...PHFO/SAB/PGTW ALL
DERIVED FINAL-T VALUES OF 2.5/35 KT...WITH CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 45 TO 55 KT...DUE TO DVORAK CONSTRAINTS.
BLENDING THIS DATA YIELDS A CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 40 KT FOR
THIS ADVISORY.

DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE CENTER LOCATION...OR EVEN IT/S CONTINUED
EXISTENCE...THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 205/6 KT IS STRONGLY
BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION OF PREVIOUS POSITION ESTIMATES. PALI REMAINS
SOUTHEAST OF A DEEP LAYER ANTICYCLONE THAT HAS A CORRESPONDING RIDGE
THAT EXTENDS EAST ALONG 17N. ALTHOUGH SOME DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED IN
THE FORECAST FORWARD SPEED OF PALI...LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH IT/S GENERAL MOTION. THE EXPECTATION IS
THAT THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY STEERING
MECHANISM...AND THE CYCLONE WILL MAKE A BROAD ARC AS IT GRADUALLY
TRANSITIONS TO A SOUTHWESTWARD...AND THEN WESTWARD MOTION. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS...
AND LIES CLOSE TO THE TVCN...WITH THE ONLY CHANGE BEING A SLIGHT
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED BEYOND 48 HOURS.

OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IS SUFFICIENTLY WARM ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK TO
SUPPORT A STRONG CYCLONE. HOWEVER...SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR
BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KT AND PALI/S PROXIMITY TO THE EQUATOR ARE
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN CONTINUED WEAKENING IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH
PALI BECOMING A DEPRESSION ON THURSDAY. THE ULTIMATE QUESTION FOR
PALI HINGES ON WHETHER OR NOT IT CAN SURVIVE THESE NEGATIVE
INFLUENCES IN THE SHORT TERM TO RE-STRENGTHEN IN THE LATER FORECAST
PERIODS...WHEN SHEAR IS FORECAST TO RELAX AS PALI SLOWLY GAINS
LATITUDE. MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS WILL
OCCUR WEST OF THE DATE LINE ON DAYS 4 AND 5...WITH PALI FORECAST TO
BECOME A STRONG TROPICAL STORM BY SHIPS AND IVCN. IN CONTRAST...THE
UPDATED INTENSITY FORECAST INDICATES LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IN
THE LATER PERIODS...MAINLY DUE TO THE INCREASING POTENTIAL THAT PALI
DISSIPATES BEFORE EVER CROSSING THE DATE LINE...AS DEPICTED BY THE
LATEST GFS GUIDANCE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0900Z 2.3N 172.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 1.9N 173.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 15/0600Z 1.5N 174.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 15/1800Z 1.3N 175.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 16/0600Z 1.3N 177.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 17/0600Z 1.5N 179.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 18/0600Z 2.0N 177.5E 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 19/0600Z 3.0N 174.5E 30 KT 35 MPH

$$

FORECASTER BIRCHARD

[NotoSans]

The circulation has probably decoupled. Given the current state I don't think it can regenerate.

[wxman57]

Looks like Pali was really a 25kt TD near 21Z yesterday when JTWC called it a 70kt hurricane. Now it's a remnant low with 15-20kt wind while JTWC identifies it as a 40kt TS.

[NotoSans]

CPHC finally brought it down to a TD, but I wonder whether this qualifies for a tropical cyclone.
CP, 01, 2016011412, , BEST, 0, 26N, 1727W, 30, 1003, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 180, 60, 0, 0, C, 0, , 0, 0, PALI, M,