CPAC: PALI - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

90C INVEST 160106 0000 2.0N 171.7W CPAC 25 1006

[1900hurricane]

Looks like a similar type of setup as was seen with 09C. Similar easterly shear too.

[stormwise]

They look equatorial storms and likely nothing more than groups of cumulo nimbus clouds scattered within the area, there is too little or no coriolis effect to induce spiraling.

[jaguarjace]

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
803 PM HST TUE JAN 5 2016

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
For the central north Pacific, between 140°W and 180.

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure about 1600 miles southwest of Honolulu Hawaii have become better organized over the past 6 to 12 hours.
Environmental conditions appear favorable for additional development over the next couple of days, despite the low's proximity to the equator.

* Formation chance through 48 hours, medium, 50 percent.

[euro6208]

Indeed.

JMA, NAVGEM, CMC, EURO, and GFS has something developing east of the dateline with GFS and especially NAVGEM strengthens it to a hurricane as it enters the WPAC while the latter weakens it rapidly east of the dateline.

EURO keeps it weak until dissipation.

[cycloneye]

Impressive data.

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 · 6m6 minutes ago
Pretty crazy that the C Pacific may get the lowest-latitude & earliest TC on record for the basin 1 week apart! #90C

[Alyono]

They look equatorial storms and likely nothing more than groups of cumulo nimbus clouds scattered within the area, there is too little or no coriolis effect to induce spiraling.

Corolis has NOTHING to do with the vorticity here. f is not even a player. All relative vorticity

[Yellow Evan]

What is offseason?

[CrazyC83]

This is 2005 all over again, except in the Pacific...

[cycloneye]

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
537 AM HST WED JAN 6 2016



SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
For the central north Pacific, between 140°W and 180.

1. Strong thunderstorms continue to develop in association with a slow-moving area of low pressure about 1550 miles southwest of Honolulu Hawaii. Although a significant increase in organization has not occurred over the past several hours, environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development over the next couple of days as the system drifts toward the north and northwest.

* Formation chance through 48 hours, medium, 50 percent.

[1900hurricane]

It's quite blessed with convection right now, that's for sure.

[Alyono]

CMC has this crossing the equator in about a week maintaining its circulation. Gets entrained into a southern twin

[Alyono]

starting to become better organized. Banding starting to become evident

[cycloneye]

Indeed looking good.

[1900hurricane]

ASCAT shows a broad circulation near the central convective cluster. This is probably getting close to being something classifiable.

[stormwise]

Elongated and quite messy.

[1900hurricane]

Tropical Cyclone Firmation Alert is up.

[euro6208]

Despite it's very impressive structure, EURO and GFS only strengthens this to a weak TS before weakening. EURO brings the remnants into eastern Micronesia whereas GFS dissipates it east of the dateline.

[euro6208]

It looks very classifiable at this point...

[1900hurricane]

Looks like CPHC is in the process of upgrading right now. It's now listed as 01C on the NRL page.