CPAC: PALI - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM PALI DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012016
500 PM HST FRI JAN 08 2016

DEEP CONVECTION AROUND TROPICAL STORM PALI HAS ALMOST COMPLETELY
COLLAPSED THIS AFTERNOON. THE LLCC IS NOW CLEARLY SEEN FAR EAST OF
REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION IN VISIBLE LOOPS...GREATLY INCREASING FIX
AND MOTION CONFIDENCE. IN SPITE OF THE RAPID DECREASE IN DEEP
CONVECTION...LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS QUITE ROBUST. A WELL
PLACED 2049 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED A SWATH OF 50 KT WINDS WITHIN THE
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST QUADRANTS. ALL WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED FOR
THIS ADVISORY BASED ON THIS ASCAT PASS. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES...HEAVILY WEIGHTED ON ORGANIZATION OF DEEP
CONVECTION...WERE NOTICEABLY LOWER THAN INTENSITY DEPICTED IN ASCAT
AT 3.0...45 KT...FROM ALL THREE SATELLITE CENTERS. UW-CIMSS ADT WAS
EVEN LOWER AT 40 KT. ASCAT IS MOST COMPELLING HERE...AND THE
INITIAL PALI INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY WILL BE MAINTAINED AT 55
KT.

TO MAINTAIN A PLAUSIBLE BEST TRACK...THE 1800 UTC POSITION WAS
REBESTED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD TO GIVE A SMOOTH NORTHWEST MOTION...315
DEGREES...AT 4 KT. PALI REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LOW LATITUDE
TROUGH INDUCED BY STRONG WESTERLIES JUST SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR.
TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS REASONABLY WELL CLUSTERED...DEPICTING A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST THROUGH DAY TWO...THEN A CONTINUED
TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST ON DAYS THREE THROUGH FIVE. MODELS
CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE SHARPNESS OF THE SOUTHWEST TURN BUT AGREE
RATHER WELL THROUGH DAY TWO. THE FORECAST TRACK CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE
ARC OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT FOR
INITIAL MOTION. FORWARD MOTION WAS INCREASED ON DAYS THREE THROUGH
FIVE SINCE THIS IS NOW BECOMING MORE WIDELY INDICATED IN GUIDANCE.
THE FORECAST TRACK CONTINUES TO LIE BETWEEN GFEX AND TVCN
CONSENSUS.

WITH SSTS GREATER THAN 28C AND DECREASING SHEAR FORECAST AFTER 12
HOURS...PALI WILL LIKELY SURVIVE DISSIPATION IN SPITE OF THE RAPID
LOSS OF DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THE FORECAST TRACK KEEPS PALI
WITHIN THE LOW LATITUDE TROUGH THROUGH ITS LIFETIME...LIKELY
PREVENTING INTENSIFICATION. ONLY GFDL INTENSIFIES PALI...LEAVING
THE VAST BULK OF INTENSITY GUIDANCE CALLING FOR SLOW WEAKENING. THE
CURRENT FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS TREND...KEEPING PALI AT TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH THROUGH DAY FIVE WHILE KEEPING IT WITHIN THE CENTRAL
NORTH PACIFIC BASIN.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0300Z 7.6N 172.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 7.9N 173.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 8.2N 174.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 10/1200Z 8.3N 174.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 11/0000Z 8.2N 174.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 12/0000Z 7.7N 175.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 13/0000Z 6.7N 175.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 14/0000Z 5.5N 176.8W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
FORECASTER POWELL

[1900hurricane]

Dry air has really decimated Pali recently.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM PALI DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012016
1100 PM HST FRI JAN 08 2016

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF PALI HAS DETERIORATED THIS EVENING...
WITH DIMINISHING DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED WELL WEST OF THE EXPOSED
LOW LEVEL CENTER. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGED FROM A
2.5/35 KT FROM SAB TO 3.0/45 KT OUT OF JTWC AND HFO...WHILE A RECENT
CIMSS SATCON ESTIMATE WAS AT 43 KT. ASCAT PASSES FROM LAST NIGHT AT
0905 UTC AND THIS MORNING AT 2047 UTC SHOWED WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50
KT IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. GIVEN ITS HISTORY OF STRONGER THAN
EXPECTED WINDS...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY WILL BE CONSERVATIVELY
LOWERED TO 50 KT.

PALI IS MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...OR 300 DEGREES...
AT 4 KT. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
DAY AS PALI REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A ROUGHLY WEST TO EAST
ORIENTED...LOW LATITUDE TROUGH THAT RUNS THROUGH THE CYCLONE. THIS
PERSISTENT TROUGH MARKS A ZONE BETWEEN A LARGE AREA OF ANOMALOUSLY
STRONG LOW LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS PREDOMINANTLY IN THE SOUTHERN
HEMISPHERE AND LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS CREATED BY A DEEP RIDGE
CENTERED ROUGHLY ALONG 18N. THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY
GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH SIGNIFICANT SPREAD
THEREAFTER. HOWEVER...THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR PALI TO SLOWLY
MEANDER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH ON DAYS TWO AND THREE...
THEN DIVE SOUTHWARD ON DAYS FOUR AND FIVE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
CLOSE TO THE GFEX AND WAS CHANGED LITTLE THROUGH THE NEXT TWO
DAYS...WITH A SLIGHTLY FASTER TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH ON DAY THREE
THROUGH FIVE.

SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. UNDER EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR OF AROUND 20 KT ACCORDING TO THE LATEST SHIPS AND CIMSS
ESTIMATES...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO REESTABLISH PERSISTENT DEEP
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF PALI IN THE SHORT TERM. WIND SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO RELAX ON DAY TWO...BUT WITH PALI REMAINING UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE LOW LATITUDE TROUGH...FURTHER WEAKENING IS LIKELY.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR SLOW WEAKENING THROUGH DAY FIVE AND
IS NEAR SHIPS AND LGEM.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0900Z 7.9N 173.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 8.1N 173.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 10/0600Z 8.2N 174.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 10/1800Z 8.2N 174.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 11/0600Z 8.0N 174.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 12/0600Z 7.5N 175.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 13/0600Z 6.3N 175.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 14/0600Z 4.4N 176.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
FORECASTER WROE

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM PALI DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012016
1100 PM HST FRI JAN 08 2016

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF PALI HAS DETERIORATED THIS EVENING...
WITH DIMINISHING DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED WELL WEST OF THE EXPOSED
LOW LEVEL CENTER. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGED FROM A
2.5/35 KT FROM SAB TO 3.0/45 KT OUT OF JTWC AND HFO...WHILE A RECENT
CIMSS SATCON ESTIMATE WAS AT 43 KT. ASCAT PASSES FROM LAST NIGHT AT
0905 UTC AND THIS MORNING AT 2047 UTC SHOWED WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50
KT IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. GIVEN ITS HISTORY OF STRONGER THAN
EXPECTED WINDS...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY WILL BE CONSERVATIVELY
LOWERED TO 50 KT.

PALI IS MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...OR 300 DEGREES...
AT 4 KT. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
DAY AS PALI REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A ROUGHLY WEST TO EAST
ORIENTED...LOW LATITUDE TROUGH THAT RUNS THROUGH THE CYCLONE. THIS
PERSISTENT TROUGH MARKS A ZONE BETWEEN A LARGE AREA OF ANOMALOUSLY
STRONG LOW LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS PREDOMINANTLY IN THE SOUTHERN
HEMISPHERE AND LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS CREATED BY A DEEP RIDGE
CENTERED ROUGHLY ALONG 18N. THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY
GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH SIGNIFICANT SPREAD
THEREAFTER. HOWEVER...THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR PALI TO SLOWLY
MEANDER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH ON DAYS TWO AND THREE...
THEN DIVE SOUTHWARD ON DAYS FOUR AND FIVE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
CLOSE TO THE GFEX AND WAS CHANGED LITTLE THROUGH THE NEXT TWO
DAYS...WITH A SLIGHTLY FASTER TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH ON DAY THREE
THROUGH FIVE.

SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. UNDER EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR OF AROUND 20 KT ACCORDING TO THE LATEST SHIPS AND CIMSS
ESTIMATES...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO REESTABLISH PERSISTENT DEEP
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF PALI IN THE SHORT TERM. WIND SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO RELAX ON DAY TWO...BUT WITH PALI REMAINING UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE LOW LATITUDE TROUGH...FURTHER WEAKENING IS LIKELY.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR SLOW WEAKENING THROUGH DAY FIVE AND
IS NEAR SHIPS AND LGEM.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0900Z 7.9N 173.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 8.1N 173.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 10/0600Z 8.2N 174.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 10/1800Z 8.2N 174.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 11/0600Z 8.0N 174.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 12/0600Z 7.5N 175.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 13/0600Z 6.3N 175.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 14/0600Z 4.4N 176.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
FORECASTER WROE

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM PALI DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012016
500 AM HST SAT JAN 09 2016

THE EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PALI HAS BEEN DEVOID
OF PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION THROUGH THE NIGHT. DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 2.5/35 KT FROM JTWC TO 2.0/30 KT OUT
OF HFO AND SAB. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0845 UTC HAD NUMEROUS 40 KT
RETRIEVALS...WHICH SUGGESTS WINDS OF AROUND 45 KT DUE TO THE
PLATFORM/S LOW BIAS AT THOSE SPEEDS. GIVEN THE NEAR ABSENCE OF
CONVECTION DURING THE TIME SINCE THE ASCAT PASS...THE INTENSITY WILL
BE LOWERED TO 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

PALI IS MAKING A TURN TOWARD THE WEST...WITH ITS CURRENT MOTION AT
285/04 KT. PALI REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A ROUGHLY WEST TO
EAST ORIENTED...LOW LATITUDE TROUGH THAT RUNS THROUGH THE CYCLONE.
THIS PERSISTENT TROUGH MARKS A ZONE BETWEEN A LARGE AREA OF
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG LOW LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS PREDOMINANTLY IN THE
SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE AND LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS CREATED BY A DEEP
RIDGE CENTERED ROUGHLY ALONG 18N. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW PALI
STALLING WITHIN THE SURFACE TROUGH DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN
SLOWLY MEANDERING IN VARYING DIRECTIONS ON DAYS TWO AND THREE...
LEADING TO SUBSTANTIAL MODEL SPREAD. ALL MODELS THEN SHOW THE
CYCLONE DIVING SOUTHWARD LATE IN DAY THREE AND BEYOND. THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST WAS CHANGED LITTLE...AND IS CLOSE TO THE HWRF ON THE
LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS.

SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
OF AROUND 15 KT SHOULD HOLD THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...AND IT
WILL LIKELY BE DIFFICULT TO REESTABLISH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION
NEAR THE CENTER OF PALI. AS A RESULT...THE WEAKENING TREND HAS BEEN
ACCELERATED WITH THIS ADVISORY...BRINGING PALI TO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ON SUNDAY...THEN HOLDING THE INTENSITY CONSTANT
THEREAFTER IN THE EVENT THAT CONVECTION CAN REDEVELOP. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS SHIPS AND LGEM BUT HAS A SLIGHTLY FASTER
WEAKENING RATE. MOST DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SLOWER WEAKENING
TREND...WITH THE OUTLIER REMAINING THE GFDL WHICH PREDICTS
INTENSIFICATION.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/1500Z 8.1N 173.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 8.1N 174.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 8.1N 174.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 11/0000Z 8.1N 174.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 11/1200Z 8.0N 174.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 12/1200Z 7.5N 175.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 13/1200Z 5.9N 175.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 14/1200Z 4.0N 176.4W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
FORECASTER WROE

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM PALI DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012016
1100 AM HST SAT JAN 09 2016

TROPICAL STORM PALI HAD BEEN DEVOID OF PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION
THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT BUT DEEP CONVECTION HAS ONCE AGAIN FORMED
NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. CURRENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE
FROM 2.5/35 KT FROM HFO...2.0/30 KT FROM SAB...AND 1.5/25 KT FROM
JTWC. BASED ON AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS AT 0845 UTC AND THE
REESTABLISHMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER...WE WILL KEEP
THE INTENSITY AT 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

PALI HAS MADE A TURN TOWARD THE WEST...WITH ITS CURRENT MOTION AT
270/02 KT. PALI REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A ROUGHLY WEST TO
EAST ORIENTED...LOW LATITUDE TROUGH THAT RUNS THROUGH THE CYCLONE.
THIS PERSISTENT TROUGH MARKS A ZONE BETWEEN A LARGE AREA OF
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG WESTERLY WINDS...MUCH OF WHICH IS SOUTH OF THE
EQUATOR...AND LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS SOUTH OF A DEEP RIDGE
CENTERED ROUGHLY ALONG 18N. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
PALI STALLING WITHIN THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WITH A RATHER SCATTERED MEANDERING TRACK FORECAST BY THE
MODELS. ALL MODELS THEN SHOW PALI DIVING SOUTHWARD LATE IN DAY 3.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND FOLLOWS CLOSELY BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS.

EASTERLY WIND SHEAR CONTINUES OVER THE SYSTEM WITH UW-CIMSS
INDICATING AROUND 11 KT WHILE SHIPS INDICATES 15 KT. EASTERLY SHEAR
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH THE SHEAR
DIRECTION GRADUALLY SWINGING AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY DAYS 4 AND 5.
THERE IS A WIDE SPREAD IN INTENSITY GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE GFDL AND HWRF BEING THE BIGGEST OUTLIERS
STRENGTHENING PALI INTO A HURRICANE BY AROUND 72 HOURS. THE
ECMWF SHOWS A SLOW WEAKENING TREND THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD WHILE THE GFS WEAKENS IT THE FASTEST. THE LATEST INTENSITY
FORECAST FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WEAKENS
PALI TO A DEPRESSION IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED
TO REMAIN A DEPRESSION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
WHICH FALLS BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS GUIDANCE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 7.7N 174.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 7.7N 174.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 7.7N 174.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 7.7N 175.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 11/1800Z 7.6N 175.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 12/1800Z 6.7N 175.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 13/1800Z 5.3N 176.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 14/1800Z 3.3N 176.9W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BURKE

[1900hurricane]

Pali seems to have mixed out some of the driest air, but the system still isn't exactly healthy. Dry air still lurks about, and it appears easterly shear is starting to pick up and may soon become an issue.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM PALI DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012016
1100 PM HST SAT JAN 09 2016

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF TROPICAL STORM PALI HAS CHANGED
LITTLE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH THE APPARENT LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER /LLCC/ REMAINING NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF
THE DEEP CONVECTION. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
CAME IN AT 2.5/35 KT FROM HFO...2.0/30 KT FROM SAB...AND 1.5/25 KT
FROM JTWC. CIMSS ADT CURRENTLY SHOWS 2.5/35 KT...WHILE THE LATEST
CIMSS SATCON CONSENSUS INTENSITY ESTIMATE STANDS AT 40 KT. WE HAVE
MAINTAINED PALI AS A 35 KT TROPICAL STORM FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE LLCC IS SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TO LOCATE SINCE IT APPEARS TO BE
TUCKED UNDER THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...BUT ANALYSIS
OF LOW CLOUD LINES VISIBLE IN THE HIGH-RESOLUTION HIMAWARI DATA
ALONG WITH A FEW RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES INDICATE THAT PALI HAS
MOVED VERY LITTLE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND THE INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS NEARLY STATIONARY. PALI REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
LARGER EAST TO WEST ORIENTED LOW LATITUDE TROUGH THAT LIES BETWEEN A
LARGE AREA OF ANOMALOUSLY STRONG WESTERLY WINDS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE EQUATOR...AND LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS SOUTH OF A DEEP RIDGE
CENTERED ROUGHLY ALONG 18N. THE RELIABLE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN
REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM...DEPICTING A SLOW
NORTHEAST TO EAST DRIFT OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 36
HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH BY 48 HOURS.
THEREAFTER...GUIDANCE ACCELERATES THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST...WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD BY DAYS 4 AND 5. THE NEW
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED EASTWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS
TRACK...ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST 3 DAYS...AND IS IN BEST
AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF AND THE TVCN CONSENSUS. FOR DAYS 4 AND 5...
THE NEW TRACK ENDS UP FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK...SHOWING
A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST MOTION TOWARD THE EQUATOR.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS CHALLENGING. AFTER A LONG PERIOD WITH
ALMOST NO DEEP CONVECTION ANYWHERE NEAR THE LLCC ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...PALI HAS MAINTAINED PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE
CENTER FOR ABOUT THE PAST 18 HOURS NOW. THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION
IS INDICATIVE OF CONTINUED EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...WITH THE
SHEAR MAGNITUDE ESTIMATED TO BE 19 KT BY SHIPS AND 10 KT BY THE UW-
CIMSS ANALYSIS. SHIPS GUIDANCE SHOWS MODERATE SHEAR CONTINUING
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE SHEAR DIRECTION GRADUALLY
VEERING AROUND THE SOUTHEAST THEN TO THE SOUTH. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT ARE CERTAINLY FAVORABLE SO
CLOSE TO THE EQUATOR. INTENSITY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DISPLAY A WIDE
SPREAD...WITH THE GFDL/HWRF INTENSIFYING THE CYCLONE TO A HURRICANE
BY 96 HOURS...WHILE THE SHIPS/LGEM WEAKEN PALI TO A DEPRESSION...AND
THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW LITTLE CHANGE. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST WILL
MAINTAIN PALI AS A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM THROUGH 72 HOURS...THEN
WEAKEN IT TO A DEPRESSION THEREAFTER AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD CLOSER TO
THE EQUATOR AND ENCOUNTERS PREDICTED SOUTHERLY SHEAR.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0900Z 7.7N 174.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 7.8N 174.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 7.9N 174.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 11/1800Z 8.0N 173.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 12/0600Z 7.6N 173.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 13/0600Z 5.2N 174.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 14/0600Z 3.0N 175.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 15/0600Z 1.5N 176.5W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
FORECASTER JACOBSON

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM PALI DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012016
500 AM HST SUN JAN 10 2016

PALI HAS PRODUCED A LARGE BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS...WITH THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS HAVING ESTIMATED
TEMPERATURES NEAR -90C. A 0910 UTC AMSU PASS INDICATED THAT THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER /LLCC/ OF PALI WAS LOCATED UNDERNEATH
BUT ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THIS LARGE CONVECTIVE MASS. SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES CAME IN AT 2.5/35 KT FROM HFO AND
2.0/30 KT FROM SAB/JTWC...WHILE THE CIMSS ADT CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATE HAS RECENTLY CREPT UP TO 2.9/43 KT. TAKING A BLEND OF THE
ABOVE DATA...WE HAVE MAINTAINED PALI AS A 35 KT TROPICAL STORM FOR
THIS ADVISORY.

SATELLITE ANIMATIONS AND MICROWAVE IMAGES ALL INDICATE THAT PALI HAS
MOVED LITTLE OVERNIGHT...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY. PALI IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER EAST TO WEST
ORIENTED LOW LATITUDE TROUGH THAT LIES BETWEEN A LARGE AREA OF
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG WESTERLY WINDS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
EQUATOR...AND LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS SOUTH OF A DEEP RIDGE
CENTERED ROUGHLY ALONG 18N. THE RELIABLE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN
REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY. A SLOW NORTHEAST TO EAST DRIFT OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
IS INDICATED DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD
THE SOUTH BY 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER...GUIDANCE ACCELERATES THE CYCLONE
TOWARD THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST...WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD BY DAYS 4
AND 5. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS TRACK...AND REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF AND
THE TVCN CONSENSUS.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS CHALLENGING. AFTER A LONG PERIOD WITH
ALMOST NO DEEP CONVECTION ANYWHERE NEAR THE LLCC LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT...PALI HAS MAINTAINED PERSISTENT DEEP
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER FOR ABOUT THE PAST 24 HOURS NOW. THE
SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS INDICATIVE OF CONTINUED EAST TO SOUTHEAST
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...WITH THE SHEAR MAGNITUDE ESTIMATED TO BE 17 KT
BY SHIPS. THE SHIPS GUIDANCE SHOWS MODERATE SHEAR CONTINUING THROUGH
MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE SHEAR DIRECTION GRADUALLY
VEERING AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST THEN TO THE SOUTH. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK ARE
CERTAINLY MORE THAN ADEQUATE TO MAINTAIN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.
MIMIC-TPW SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES DEPICT ABUNDANT DRY AIR AROUND THE
FAR OUTER PERIPHERY OF THE CYCLONE...BUT THIS DOES NOT SEEM TO BE
NEGATIVELY IMPACTING THE INNER CORE OF THE SYSTEM AT THIS TIME.
INTENSITY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DISPLAY A WIDE SPREAD...WITH THE
GFDL/HWRF INTENSIFYING THE CYCLONE TO A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...WHILE THE SHIPS/LGEM WEAKEN PALI TO A DEPRESSION...AND
THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW LITTLE CHANGE. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS
UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...MAINTAINING PALI AS A MINIMAL
TROPICAL STORM THROUGH 72 HOURS...THEN WEAKENING IT TO A DEPRESSION
THEREAFTER AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD AND CLOSER TO THE EQUATOR.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/1500Z 7.6N 174.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 7.7N 174.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 11/1200Z 7.9N 173.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 12/0000Z 7.8N 173.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 12/1200Z 7.0N 173.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 13/1200Z 4.4N 174.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 14/1200Z 2.5N 175.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 15/1200Z 1.5N 176.5W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
FORECASTER JACOBSON

[Exalt]

The GFS has Pali going on a very gradual weakening trend which corresponds to the forecast. However, what they fail to mention is the not so gradual intensification to about a category two hurricane (wind wise, pressure is fairly high for a cat 2 however) that is forecasted for Pali at about 156 hours until about 222 hours. They also fail to mention the nonexistence of a weakening trend and strong intensification on the Euro as well. Is a category 2 CPAC hurricane in early January even heard of?

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM PALI DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012016
1100 AM HST SUN JAN 10 2016

PALI HAS REMAINED WELL-ORGANIZED...WITH A CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND
NORTHEAST OF A 350 MILE DIAMETER AREA OF COLD CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS.
AMSU IMAGERY AT 1441 UTC SHOWED THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION UNDER THE
NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE COLD CONVECTIVE CLOUDS. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
ANALYSES FROM PHFO AND SAB WERE 2.5/35 KT...WITH 2.0/30 KT FROM
JTWC. BASED ON THE IMPROVED SATELLITE CLOUD PATTERN OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS I HAVE MADE THE INITIAL INTENSITY 45 KT.

ANIMATION OF INFRARED IMAGERY AND EXTRAPOLATION OF MICROWAVE
POSITIONS SHOW PALI MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE EAST. PALI REMAINS IN
AN EAST NORTHEAST TO WEST SOUTHWEST TROUGH BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND A NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. THE
RELIABLE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE
TROPICAL STORM CONTINUING TO MOVE EAST SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...THEN CURVING TOWARD THE SOUTH THROUGH 48 HOURS. AFTER
THAT...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE NEW
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED FARTHER EAST THROUGH 48
HOURS...THEN HAS PALI MOVING A BIT FASTER TOWARD THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST. THESE CHANGES SHIFT THE TRACK CLOSER TO THE LATEST
RELIABLE TRACK GUIDANCE.

CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THE THE INTENSITY FORECAST. THE NEW
INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...
MAINTAINING PALI AS A TROPICAL STORM THROUGH 72 HOURS...THEN
WEAKENING IT TO A DEPRESSION AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD AND CLOSER TO THE
EQUATOR.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/2100Z 7.8N 173.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 11/0600Z 7.9N 173.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 11/1800Z 7.8N 173.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 12/0600Z 7.3N 172.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 12/1800Z 6.5N 172.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 13/1800Z 4.5N 173.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 14/1800Z 3.0N 174.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 15/1800Z 1.5N 175.5W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
FORECASTER DONALDSON

[Iune]

I'm curious to see if Pali can make it very close to the Equator (hopefully even cross the Equator) while maintaining tropical cyclone intensity. If I recall correctly, only Cyclone Agni has crossed the Equator, but that was during its pre-formation disturbance phase.

[Alyono]

If this gets to about 175E near the equator, there are some VERY VULNERABLE islands that could be wiped out. Fairly heavily populated as well

[1900hurricane]

Wow, this looks much better. Maybe tilted a little to the west with ascending height, but not horribly. Certainly not a naked swirl anymore. The extremely dry air that had previously surrounded and intruded into the system looks to be much modified and mixed out now too.

[1900hurricane]

Actually, after looking at the most recent ASCAT pass, it might not even really be tilted.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM PALI DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012016
1100 PM HST SUN JAN 10 2016

WARM SPOTS CONTINUE TO SHOW UP IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AS THIS
ADVISORY FOR PALI IS BEING PREPARED. BASED ON A 0513Z AMSU AND A
0541Z SSMIS PASS OVER THE SYSTEM...THESE WARM SPOTS SEEM TO COINCIDE
WITH THE ESTIMATED CENTER OF PALI. THE OVERALL SATELLITE
PRESENTATION OF THE CYCLONE...INCLUDING THE OUTFLOW STRUCTURE...ALSO
CONTINUES TO IMPROVE THIS EVENING. THE LATEST ESTIMATES OF
ENVIRONMENTAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN THE VICINITY OF PALI WERE 4 TO
10 KT FROM THE SOUTH ACCORDING TO THE LATEST SHIPS AND UW/CIMSS
GUIDANCE. THE MOST RECENT SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES WERE 3.0/45 KT FROM HFO AND SAB AND 2.5/35 KT FROM JTWC.
THE LATEST UW/CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE WAS 3.9/63 KT. BASED ON THE OVERALL
IMPROVING SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF PALI...WE HAVE INCREASED THE
INITIAL INTENSITY TO 55 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS ADVISORY REMAINS A VERY SLOW 065/03 KT.
PALI IS A RATHER SMALL CYCLONE AT A RELATIVELY LOW LATITUDE...SO
BETA DRIFT IS A MINIMAL STEERING MECHANISM. THERE ARE ALSO NO LARGE
SCALE SYNOPTIC FORCING SYSTEMS THAT MIGHT CAUSE PALI TO BEGIN
ACCELERATING AWAY FROM ITS CURRENT LOCATION. THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN
THE VICINITY OF AN EAST-NORTHEAST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED TROUGH
BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH NEAR LATITUDE 23N...AND
WESTERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH NEAR THE EQUATOR. AS NOTED IN THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...TROPICAL CYCLONES NEAR TROUGHS LIKE THIS...
WHICH ARE SIMILAR TO MONSOON TROUGHS...OFTEN MEANDER AND MAKE
MULTIPLE LOOPS WITHIN THE TROUGH. THE LATEST RELIABLE TRACK GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING PALI CONTINUING TO MOVE
EAST SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN CURVING TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST AND THEN THE SOUTH THROUGH 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE
CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST...WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS
BEEN NUDGED A BIT TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 48
HOURS. THE NEW TRACK THEN IS NEAR THE OLD ONE BY DAY 3...BUT IT HAS
PALI MOVING MORE TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST ON DAYS 4 AND 5. NOTE
THAT THIS FORECAST CONTINUES TO KEEP PALI WELL EAST OF THE
INTERNATIONAL DATE LINE THROUGH DAY 5.

SINCE THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF PALI...
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THE LATEST INTENSITY FORECAST. MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...HIGH
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND RELATIVELY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALONG THE
FORECAST TRACK. THE LATEST INTENSITY FORECAST IS GIVING A NOD TOWARD
THE APPARENT IMPROVEMENT OF THE STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM IN MICROWAVE
AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. ASSUMING THIS TREND CONTINUES...SOME
ADDITIONAL SLOW INTENSIFICATION SEEMS REASONABLE. THE CURRENT
FORECAST DOES NOT EXPLICITLY INTENSIFY PALI TO A HURRICANE BEFORE IT
BEGINS MOVING SOUTHWARD BEYOND 36 HOURS. HOWEVER...IT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISING TO SEE IT BRIEFLY BECOME A MINIMAL HURRICANE. NOTE ALSO
THAT THE LATEST INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER ON DAYS 4 AND
5 SINCE PALI IS NOW FORECAST TO REMAIN A BIT FARTHER NORTH OF THE
EQUATOR.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0900Z 7.9N 173.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 11/1800Z 8.1N 172.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 12/0600Z 8.0N 172.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 12/1800Z 7.3N 171.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 13/0600Z 6.4N 171.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 14/0600Z 4.4N 172.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 15/0600Z 3.5N 174.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 16/0600Z 3.0N 176.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
FORECASTER HOUSTON

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM PALI DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012016
500 AM HST MON JAN 11 2016

DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY RECENT MICROWAVE OR SCATTEROMETER PASSES OVER
THE CORE OF PALI...THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE
CURRENT LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM. THE TRANSIENT WARM
SPOTS THAT HAD BEEN OBSERVED LAST EVENING HAVE DISAPPEARED. THERE
CONTINUES TO BE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE APPARENT CENTER ACCORDING
TO THE LATEST INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY...SO WE ASSUME PALI HAS NOT
WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE LATEST
ESTIMATES OF ENVIRONMENTAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN THE VICINITY OF
PALI WERE 10 TO 15 KT FROM THE SOUTH ACCORDING TO THE LATEST SHIPS
AND UW/CIMSS GUIDANCE. THE MOST RECENT SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 3.0/45 KT FROM HFO AND SAB AND 2.0/30 KT
FROM JTWC. THE LATEST UW/CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE WAS 3.4/53 KT. BASED ON
THESE ESTIMATES...WE HAVE WEAKENED THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 50 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 065/04 KT. PALI IS A RATHER
SMALL CYCLONE AT A RELATIVELY LOW LATITUDE...SO BETA DRIFT IS A
MINIMAL STEERING MECHANISM. THERE ARE ALSO NO OBVIOUS LARGE SCALE
SYNOPTIC FORCING SYSTEMS THAT MIGHT CAUSE PALI TO BEGIN ACCELERATING
AWAY FROM ITS CURRENT LOCATION. THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN THE VICINITY
OF AN EAST-NORTHEAST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED TROUGH BETWEEN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH NEAR LATITUDE 22N...AND WESTERLY FLOW
TO THE SOUTH ALONG THE EQUATOR. THE LATEST RELIABLE TRACK GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING PALI CONTINUING TO MOVE
EAST SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS...THEN CURVING TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST AND THEN THE SOUTH FROM 24-36 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE
CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST. THE LATEST
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN NUDGED A BIT TO THE EAST OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 36 HOURS. THE NEW TRACK IS NEAR THE OLD ONE
BEYOND 36 HOURS. NOTE THAT THIS FORECAST CONTINUES TO KEEP PALI WELL
EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL DATE LINE THROUGH DAY 5.

SINCE THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF PALI...
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THE LATEST INTENSITY FORECAST. MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...HIGH
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND RELATIVELY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALONG THE
FORECAST TRACK. THE LATEST INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED DOWN
A BIT DUE TO THE LOWER INITIAL INTENSITY. THE LATEST IVCN STILL
SUGGESTS THAT PALI MAY INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS...SO WE HAVE KEPT THIS TREND IN THE UPDATED FORECAST. AFTER
THAT...THE LATEST FORECAST WEAKENS PALI SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE
PREVIOUS ONE BY 48 HOURS. THE DAYS 4 AND 5 FORECASTS ARE A LITTLE
STRONGER NOW SINCE WE ARE NOT SENDING PALI AS CLOSE TO THE EQUATOR
AS EARLIER FORECASTS INDICATED.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/1500Z 8.3N 172.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 12/0000Z 8.4N 172.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 12/1200Z 7.8N 171.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 13/0000Z 6.8N 171.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 13/1200Z 5.6N 171.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 14/1200Z 4.0N 173.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 15/1200Z 3.5N 174.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 16/1200Z 3.0N 176.5W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
FORECASTER HOUSTON

[1900hurricane]

It's possible that Pali could be with us for a while still. Most globals are still showing Pali as an entity ten days out.

[1900hurricane]

In the near term, I still think dry air is the biggest determent to Pali. It's still wrapping around to some extent, but not horribly so.

[Alyono]

May be a hurricane given the eye