CPAC: PALI - Post-Tropical

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Re: CPAC: PALI - Hurricane

#101 Postby euro6208 » Tue Jan 12, 2016 2:34 am

NWS

ONE LAST THING TO WATCH
OUT FOR...NOW BOTH THE ECMWF-HIRES AND GFS40 BRING TROPICAL STORM
01C PALI OVER TO OUR SIDE OF THE DATE LINE. RESIDENTS ARE ASKED TO
KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS WITH TROPICAL STORM PALI.
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Re: CPAC: PALI - Hurricane

#102 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jan 12, 2016 4:48 am

HURRICANE PALI DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012016
1100 PM HST MON JAN 11 2016

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF HURRICANE PALI HAS CHANGED LITTLE
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WHILE ITS EXPECTED TURN TOWARD THE
SOUTH HAS BEGUN. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM HFO...SAB...AND
JTWC ALL CAME IN AT 4.5/77 KT...AND GIVEN ITS STEADY APPEARANCE...
THE INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 75 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE WIND
RADII WERE ALTERED SLIGHTLY BASED ON AN ASCAT PASS EARLIER IN THE
DAY.

WITH PALI IN THE ACT OF TURNING SOUTHWARD...THE INITIAL MOTION IS
SET AT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST...OR 160 DEGREES...AT 6 KT. THE HURRICANE
REMAINS NEAR A LOW LEVEL TROUGH BETWEEN A PERSISTENT AREA OF
WESTERLY WINDS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR AND A DEEP RIDGE
CENTERED ROUGHLY ALONG 20N. THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS
STRENGTHENING...WHICH IS DRIVING THE SOUTHWARD TURN OF PALI. AS PALI
SLOWLY APPROACHES THE EQUATOR...DEEP EASTERLIES TO THE NORTH ARE
EXPECTED TO INDUCE A WESTWARD MOTION...THOUGH CONTINUED INTERACTION
WITH THE LOW LATITUDE TROUGH MAY SLOW THE MOTION SOMEWHAT. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK WAS ALTERED LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND
REMAINS NEAR BUT SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE GFEX AND TVCN ON THE
SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE RELIABLE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. IT IS FAIR TO SAY
THE UNCERTAINTY IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL AS PALI MOVES CLOSER TO THE
EQUATOR.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS CHALLENGING AS THE CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO EXTREMELY LOW LATITUDES NOT TYPICALLY
OBSERVED. SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 10 TO 15 KT ACCORDING
TO CIMSS AND SHIPS IS NOT HAVING MUCH EFFECT ON PALI AT THIS
TIME...AS OUTFLOW PERSISTS ON ALL QUADRANTS. ALTHOUGH PALI WILL
REMAIN OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 28 TO 29 C ALONG THE
FORECAST TRACK...SHIPS INDICATES A MODEST INCREASE IN WIND SHEAR
THAT COULD PRODUCE SOME WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE AS WELL AS
THE TREND OF THE ICON. THE GFDL MAINTAINS A STRONGER SYSTEM AND IS
THE OUTLIER THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST. THE GFS ALSO SHOWS
RE-INTENSIFICATION BEYOND 72 HOURS...BUT THAT SCENARIO IS
QUESTIONABLE DUE TO THE RARELY SEEN LOW LATITUDES ON THE FORECAST
TRACK.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0900Z 7.5N 171.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 12/1800Z 6.7N 171.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 13/0600Z 5.5N 172.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 13/1800Z 4.5N 172.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 14/0600Z 3.8N 173.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 15/0600Z 2.8N 174.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 16/0600Z 2.7N 177.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 17/0600Z 2.6N 179.1W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
FORECASTER WROE
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Re: CPAC: PALI - Hurricane

#103 Postby stormwise » Tue Jan 12, 2016 5:30 am

00z if it verifies, Pali will be a very gnarly system.

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Re: CPAC: PALI - Hurricane

#104 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jan 12, 2016 10:08 am

Up to 80kts.

HURRICANE PALI DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012016
500 AM HST TUE JAN 12 2016

AFTER EXHIBITING A RATHER WELL DEFINED EYE THROUGH THE EVENING...A
RECENT BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PALI
HAS CAUSED THE EYE TO BECOME CLOUD FILLED...LIKELY DUE TO
SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF AROUND 15 KT ACCORDING TO THE
RECENT SHIPS AND CIMSS ANALYSES. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM HFO
AND JTWC CAME IN AT 4.5/77 KT...WHILE SAB AND CIMSS ADT REPORTED
5.0/90 KT. BASED ON A BLEND OF THESE ESTIMATES...THE INTENSITY WILL
BE RAISED CONSERVATIVELY TO 80 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. ALSO...AN 0829
UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED SIMILAR WIND RADII VALUES TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.

PALI CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 170/06
KT. THE HURRICANE REMAINS NEAR A LOW LEVEL TROUGH BETWEEN A
PERSISTENT AREA OF WESTERLY WINDS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR AND
A DEEP RIDGE CENTERED ROUGHLY ALONG 20N. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RIDGE NEAR 175E IS BUILDING EASTWARD. THIS IS
CAUSING THE ALREADY LOW LATITUDE HURRICANE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD...
SOMETHING RARELY SEEN IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. AS PALI SLOWLY
APPROACHES THE EQUATOR...DEEP EASTERLIES TO THE NORTH ARE EXPECTED
TO INDUCE A WESTWARD MOTION BEYOND THURSDAY...THOUGH CONTINUED
INTERACTION WITH THE LOW LATITUDE TROUGH MAY SLOW THE MOTION
SOMEWHAT. OFFICIAL TRACK WAS ALTERED LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND REMAINS NEAR THE GFEX IN THE MIDDLE OF...BUT SLIGHTLY
SLOWER THAN...THE RELIABLE TRACK GUIDANCE. WITH PALI MOVING CLOSER
TO THE EQUATOR...UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST BEYOND THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS CHALLENGING AS THE CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO EXTREMELY LOW LATITUDES NOT TYPICALLY
OBSERVED. ALTHOUGH PALI WILL REMAIN OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF
28 TO 29 C ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...SHIPS INDICATES A MODEST
INCREASE IN WIND SHEAR THAT COULD PRODUCE SOME WEAKENING DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SLOW
WEAKENING TREND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM THROUGH ABOUT 72 HOURS. AT
THAT TIME AND BEYOND...SHIPS...LGEM...AND THE GFS SHOW A RE-
INTENSIFICATION TREND...LIKELY DUE TO SHEAR RELAXING...WHILE THE
GFDL...THE OUTLIER ON THE HIGH END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...
SUGGESTS WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN HELD
CONSTANT AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND DUE TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL
UNCERTAINTY AT THE EXTREMELY LOW LATITUDES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK.




FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/1500Z 6.8N 171.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 13/0000Z 5.9N 171.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 13/1200Z 4.8N 172.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 14/0000Z 3.9N 173.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 14/1200Z 3.1N 174.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 15/1200Z 2.5N 175.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 16/1200Z 2.5N 178.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 17/1200Z 2.5N 179.9W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
FORECASTER WROE
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Re: CPAC: PALI - Hurricane

#105 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Jan 12, 2016 12:10 pm

I don't think shear is the primary reason the eye became cloud-filled earlier. I think Pali has finally mixed the last of the dry air out of the core, allowing much deeper convection to develop, obscuring the eye for now. -80*C tops can now be seen spiraling around the CDO.

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Re: CPAC: PALI - Hurricane

#106 Postby EquusStorm » Tue Jan 12, 2016 1:04 pm

Pretty surreal to see 2.5N in the forecast positon. Not gonna have much to use for an analog.
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...but still, though, a lot more interesting than the 2013 season.

Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.

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Re: CPAC: PALI - Hurricane

#107 Postby EquusStorm » Tue Jan 12, 2016 2:47 pm

Aaaand wow. This thing is rapidly organizing.
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...but still, though, a lot more interesting than the 2013 season.

Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.

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Re: CPAC: PALI - Hurricane

#108 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Jan 12, 2016 3:29 pm

Eye seems to be clearing pretty quickly. Has to be at least 90 knots now, and if it continues, a major is possible within 12 hours IMO.
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Re: CPAC: PALI - Hurricane

#109 Postby WeatherGuesser » Tue Jan 12, 2016 3:34 pm

120H 17/1200Z 2.5N 179.9W 60 KT 70 MPH



That's still quite a ways off Kiribati if it survives, but what about resulting surf and swells? For a place barely above Sea Level, it won't take much of a wave to cause trouble.
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Re: CPAC: PALI - Hurricane

#110 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jan 12, 2016 3:59 pm

Up to cat 2.Now is forecast to enter West Pacific basin as a Typhoon.

HURRICANE PALI DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012016
1100 AM HST TUE JAN 12 2016

THE SATELLITE REPRESENTATION OF HURRICANE PALI REMAINS RATHER
IMPRESSIVE WITH A CLOUD FILLED EYE SEEN IN RECENT SATELLITE
IMAGERY. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM HFO AND SAB CAME IN AT
5.0/90 KT...WHILE JTWC CAME IN AT 4.5/77 KT. UW-CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE
CAME IN AT 81 KT. BASED ON ITS RECENT APPEARANCE AND TAKING A BLEND
OF THE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...WE HAVE SET THE INTENSITY AT 85 KT FOR
THIS ADVISORY.

PALI CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 200/06
KT. THE HURRICANE REMAINS NEAR A LOW LEVEL TROUGH BETWEEN A
PERSISTENT AREA OF WESTERLY WINDS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR AND
A DEEP RIDGE CENTERED ROUGHLY ALONG 18N. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RIDGE NEAR 165E IS BUILDING EASTWARD. THIS IS
CAUSING THE ALREADY LOW LATITUDE HURRICANE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD...
SOMETHING RARELY SEEN IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. AS PALI SLOWLY
APPROACHES THE EQUATOR...DEEP EASTERLIES TO THE NORTH ARE EXPECTED
TO INDUCE A WESTWARD MOTION BEYOND THURSDAY...THOUGH CONTINUED
INTERACTION WITH THE LOW LATITUDE TROUGH MAY SLOW THE MOTION
SOMEWHAT. THE OFFICIAL TRACK WAS ALTERED LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH TVCN AND HWFI WHICH LIE NEAR THE
MIDDLE OF THE RELIABLE TRACK GUIDANCE.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS A BIT CHALLENGING AS THE CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO EXTREMELY LOW LATITUDES NOT TYPICALLY
OBSERVED. SHEAR ANALYSIS FROM SHIPS IS 9 KT WHILE UW-CIMSS
CAME IN AT AROUND 18 KT. PALI WILL REMAIN OVER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES OF 28 TO 29 C ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. SHIPS GUIDANCE
INDICATES A MODEST INCREASE IN WIND SHEAR THROUGH ABOUT 60 HOURS
THAT COULD PRODUCE SOME WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
AFTER THAT SHIPS GUIDANCE SHOWS SHEAR VALUES DROPPING OFF TO AROUND
5 KT ON DAYS 3 THROUGH 5. THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST CLOSELY
FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH A SLOW WEAKENING TREND EXPECTED
TO BEGIN TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN HELD CONSTANT AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND DUE
TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL UNCERTAINTY AT THE EXTREMELY LOW LATITUDES
ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. THIS FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH SHIPS GUIDANCE
AS WELL AS IVCN BUT IS MUCH HIGHER THAN HWFI AND MUCH LOWER THAN
GFDI.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/2100Z 6.2N 171.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 5.2N 171.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 4.3N 172.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 14/0600Z 3.7N 173.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 14/1800Z 3.3N 174.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 15/1800Z 3.0N 176.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 16/1800Z 3.0N 179.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 17/1800Z 3.2N 178.0E 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BURKE

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Re: CPAC: PALI - Hurricane

#111 Postby WeatherGuesser » Tue Jan 12, 2016 4:32 pm

Code: Select all

96H 16/1800Z 3.0N 179.1W
120H 17/1800Z 3.2N 178.0E


They've got it turning back north now?
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Re: CPAC: PALI - Hurricane

#112 Postby WeatherGuesser » Tue Jan 12, 2016 4:38 pm

Bonriki International Airport is near 1.2N 173.1E
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Re: CPAC: PALI - Hurricane

#113 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Jan 12, 2016 4:52 pm

I think the southerly shear might be starting to pick up.

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Re: CPAC: PALI - Hurricane

#114 Postby stormwise » Tue Jan 12, 2016 7:32 pm

With a PPBV at 94 along the southern periphery RH90% MR, I would think the hurricane will strengthen.
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Re: CPAC: PALI - Hurricane

#115 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jan 12, 2016 9:49 pm

HURRICANE PALI DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012016
500 PM HST TUE JAN 12 2016

THE SATELLITE REPRESENTATION OF HURRICANE PALI HAS DETERIORATED
SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS LIKELY DUE TO AN EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM HFO...SAB AND JTWC ALL
CAME IN AT 5.0/90 KT. BASED ON ITS RECENT APPEARANCE...WE WILL KEEP
THE INTENSITY AT 85 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

PALI CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 180/07
KT. THE HURRICANE REMAINS NEAR A LOW LEVEL TROUGH BETWEEN A
PERSISTENT AREA OF WESTERLY WINDS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR AND
A DEEP RIDGE CENTERED ROUGHLY ALONG 18N. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RIDGE NEAR 165E IS BUILDING EASTWARD. THIS IS
CAUSING THE ALREADY LOW LATITUDE HURRICANE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD...
SOMETHING RARELY SEEN IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. AS PALI SLOWLY
APPROACHES THE EQUATOR...DEEP EASTERLIES TO THE NORTH ARE EXPECTED
TO INDUCE A WESTWARD MOTION BEYOND THURSDAY...THOUGH CONTINUED
INTERACTION WITH THE LOW LATITUDE TROUGH MAY SLOW THE MOTION
SOMEWHAT. THE OFFICIAL TRACK WAS ALTERED LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH TVCN AND HWFI WHICH LIE NEAR THE
MIDDLE OF THE RELIABLE TRACK GUIDANCE.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS A BIT CHALLENGING AS THE CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO EXTREMELY LOW LATITUDES NOT TYPICALLY
OBSERVED. SHEAR ANALYSIS FROM SHIPS IS 11 KT WHILE UW-CIMSS
CAME IN AT AROUND 19 KT. PALI WILL REMAIN OVER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 29 C ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. LATEST SHIPS
GUIDANCE KEEPS MODEST SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM THROUGH ABOUT 48 HOURS
BEFORE DECREASING DURING DAYS 3 THROUGH 5. THE LATEST OFFICIAL
FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH A SLOW WEAKENING
TREND EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 72
HOURS. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE THEN SHOW SOME INTENSIFICATION BEYOND
96 HOURS WITH THE LATEST FORECAST REFLECTING THIS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0300Z 5.4N 171.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 13/1200Z 4.4N 171.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 14/0000Z 3.7N 172.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 14/1200Z 3.4N 173.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 15/0000Z 3.1N 174.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 16/0000Z 2.8N 177.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 17/0000Z 3.0N 179.6E 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 18/0000Z 3.5N 176.3E 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BURKE
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Re: CPAC: PALI - Hurricane

#116 Postby Alyono » Tue Jan 12, 2016 10:13 pm

if CPHC forecast verifies, Tarawa would not take a direct hit. However, it would be close enough to get some of the very high waves, which may be able to cover large parts of the island. Pam caused significant flooding last year, and it was thousands of miles away!

If this does move slightly south of their track and makes a direct hit, I wouldn't be surprised if the island is completely under water several hours prior to "landfall" (I use landfall in quote as it may not be a technical landfall as the island would be under water)
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Re: CPAC: PALI - Hurricane

#117 Postby euro6208 » Wed Jan 13, 2016 2:52 am

NWS keeping a close eye on this...

SEAS
WILL ALSO INCREASE AT MAJURO SUNDAY AND MONDAY FROM SWELL PRODUCED
BY STRONGER WINDS NORTH OF HURRICANE PALI. THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN
FOR THE AREA REMAINS HURRICANE PALI...NOW CENTERED NEAR 5N171W WITH
MAX WINDS OF 100 MPH AND MOVING SOUTH AT 8 MPH. ECMWF HAD BEEN
SHOWING PALI WEAKENING NEAR THE EQUATOR WHILE THE GFS AND NAVGEM
HAVE SHOWN A SLOW TURNING TO THE WEST BY MIDWEEK. NOW ECMWF IS
BEGINNING TO SHOW A WESTWARD CURVATURE. THE LATEST CPHC FORECAST
TRACK FOLLOWS THESE MODEL TRENDS AND SHOW PALI CROSSING THE DATE
LINE SOMETIME SUNDAY. THERE IS STILL A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE LONGER-RANGE FORECAST...SO PEOPLE
IN THE MARSHALLS SHOULD KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS SYSTEM IN THE
COMING DAYS.
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Re: CPAC: PALI - Hurricane

#118 Postby NotoSans » Wed Jan 13, 2016 6:16 am

looks like shear is taking its toll. latest microwave pass shows deep convection displaced to the north.
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Re: CPAC: PALI - Hurricane

#119 Postby euro6208 » Wed Jan 13, 2016 6:36 am

NAVGEM has a devastating typhoon moving across the Marshall Islands and eastern Micronesia.

EURO and GFS not so much. They both weaken it and moves it across the WPAC as a mere TD/LPA.
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Re: CPAC: PALI - Hurricane

#120 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jan 13, 2016 10:17 am

HURRICANE PALI DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012016
500 AM HST WED JAN 13 2016

PALI CONTINUES ON A WEAKENING TREND THAT BEGAN YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATING A MORE RAPID RATE OF
DECAY OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. MOST SATELLITE ANALYSTS VIEWING
RECENT DATA WITHOUT CONTEXT WOULD BE HARD-PRESSED TO DEEM PALI A
HURRICANE. SHEAR IS ESTIMATED TO BE FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST NEAR
15 KT...AND LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUPPORTS THIS ANALYSIS...WITH
OUTFLOW ALOFT RESTRICTED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. WHILE DATA-T
/DT/ VALUES FROM THE FIX AGENCIES INDICATE WEAKENING...DVORAK
CONSTRAINTS PREVENT THE CURRENT INTENSITY /CI/ VALUES FROM BEING
LOWERED DURING INITIAL WEAKENING...WITH VALUES RANGING FROM 4.0/65
KT TO 5.0/90 KT...RESPECTIVELY. GIVEN THESE CONSIDERATIONS...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY FOR PALI IS ESTIMATED TO BE 70 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY...WHICH STILL REPRESENTS SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS.

PALI HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT...AND THE
CURRENT MOTION VECTOR FOR THIS ADVISORY IS ESTIMATED TO BE 210/07
KT. LATEST ANALYSIS DEPICTS A NEARLY STATIONARY EAST-WEST ORIENTED
RIDGE WELL NORTH OF PALI...ALONG 18N-20N. THIS RIDGE APPEARS TO BE
DRIVING THE CURRENT MOTION...WHICH IS FORCING PALI DEEPER INTO A
NEARLY EAST-WEST ORIENTED NEAR-EQUATORIAL LOW-LEVEL TROUGH. THE
LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE OFFERS LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE LAST COUPLE OF
RUNS...AND THE UPDATED OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS AND THE TVCN CONSENSUS. THE FORECAST ANTICIPATES THAT PALI
WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST LATER TODAY BEFORE MAKING A TURN TOWARD THE WEST
ON DAYS 2 THROUGH 4...AND TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD...ALL WITHIN THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS PROBLEMATIC AT BEST...WITH THE UPDATED
INTENSITY FORECAST INDICATING A MORE RAPID WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WHEN COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS...AND LIES CLOSE
TO SHIPS GUIDANCE. THIS IS PARTIALLY DUE TO OBSERVED TRENDS...BUT
ALSO DUE TO TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE...MOST OF WHICH HAVE BEEN
INCREASING THE RATE OF WEAKENING OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS. WATER
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE A LIMITING FACTOR...AS SSTS AND
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK ARE SUFFICIENTLY HIGH TO
SUPPORT A STRONG HURRICANE. SHEAR VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW
TO MODERATE THOUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH WEAKER SHEAR IN LATER
FORECAST PERIODS POTENTIALLY ALLOWING PALI TO RESTRENGTHEN WEST OF
THE DATE LINE. ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST ASSUMES THAT PALI WILL BE ABLE
TO SURVIVE THE WESTWARD TREK THROUGH THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL
TROUGH...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT PALI WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
WITHIN THE TROUGH.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/1500Z 4.2N 171.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 14/0000Z 3.5N 172.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 14/1200Z 2.9N 173.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 15/0000Z 2.6N 174.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 15/1200Z 2.4N 175.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 16/1200Z 2.4N 178.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 17/1200Z 2.6N 178.5E 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 18/1200Z 3.5N 176.0E 55 KT 65 MPH

$$

FORECASTER BIRCHARD
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