ATL: ALEX - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

Here is 90L for the low pressure in Central Atlantic.Here is the long best track that they had done as test and now as Invest.

AL, 90, 2016010700, , BEST, 0, 253N, 766W, 35, 1010, EX, 34, NEQ, 150, 0, 0, 150, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, TEST, ,
AL, 90, 2016010706, , BEST, 0, 273N, 748W, 40, 1003, EX, 34, NEQ, 150, 0, 0, 150, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, TEST, ,
AL, 90, 2016010712, , BEST, 0, 287N, 738W, 50, 997, EX, 34, NEQ, 170, 110, 100, 150, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, TEST, ,
AL, 90, 2016010712, , BEST, 0, 287N, 738W, 50, 997, EX, 50, NEQ, 0, 0, 60, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, TEST, ,
AL, 90, 2016010718, , BEST, 0, 300N, 725W, 55, 997, EX, 34, NEQ, 170, 110, 100, 150, 1012, 200, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, TEST, M,
AL, 90, 2016010718, , BEST, 0, 300N, 725W, 55, 997, EX, 50, NEQ, 0, 0, 60, 0, 1012, 200, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, TEST, M,
AL, 90, 2016010800, , BEST, 0, 315N, 705W, 55, 992, EX, 34, NEQ, 240, 150, 150, 240, 1012, 200, 60, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, TEST, ,
AL, 90, 2016010800, , BEST, 0, 315N, 705W, 55, 992, EX, 50, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 50, 1012, 200, 60, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, TEST, ,
AL, 90, 2016010806, , BEST, 0, 326N, 690W, 55, 987, EX, 34, NEQ, 240, 150, 150, 240, 1012, 270, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, TEST, D,
AL, 90, 2016010806, , BEST, 0, 326N, 690W, 55, 987, EX, 50, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 50, 1012, 270, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, TEST, D,
AL, 90, 2016010812, , BEST, 0, 330N, 671W, 55, 990, EX, 34, NEQ, 300, 150, 150, 240, 1012, 270, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, TEST, D,
AL, 90, 2016010812, , BEST, 0, 330N, 671W, 55, 990, EX, 50, NEQ, 0, 70, 0, 0, 1012, 270, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, TEST, D,
AL, 90, 2016010818, , BEST, 0, 334N, 649W, 50, 991, EX, 34, NEQ, 400, 200, 120, 240, 1012, 320, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, TEST, D,
AL, 90, 2016010818, , BEST, 0, 334N, 649W, 50, 991, EX, 50, NEQ, 0, 70, 0, 0, 1012, 320, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, TEST, D,
AL, 90, 2016010900, , BEST, 0, 340N, 629W, 50, 991, EX, 34, NEQ, 400, 200, 120, 240, 1012, 320, 50, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, TEST, ,
AL, 90, 2016010900, , BEST, 0, 340N, 629W, 50, 991, EX, 50, NEQ, 0, 70, 0, 0, 1012, 320, 50, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, TEST, ,
AL, 90, 2016010906, , BEST, 0, 345N, 605W, 50, 991, EX, 34, NEQ, 400, 200, 120, 240, 1012, 320, 50, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, TEST, ,
AL, 90, 2016010906, , BEST, 0, 345N, 605W, 50, 991, EX, 50, NEQ, 0, 70, 0, 0, 1012, 320, 50, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, TEST, ,
AL, 90, 2016010912, , BEST, 0, 350N, 583W, 50, 991, EX, 34, NEQ, 400, 200, 120, 240, 1012, 320, 50, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, TEST, ,
AL, 90, 2016010912, , BEST, 0, 350N, 583W, 50, 991, EX, 50, NEQ, 0, 70, 0, 0, 1012, 320, 50, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, TEST, ,
AL, 90, 2016010918, , BEST, 0, 355N, 560W, 50, 991, EX, 34, NEQ, 400, 200, 120, 240, 1012, 320, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, TEST, D,
AL, 90, 2016010918, , BEST, 0, 355N, 560W, 50, 991, EX, 50, NEQ, 0, 70, 0, 0, 1012, 320, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, TEST, D,
AL, 90, 2016011000, , BEST, 0, 345N, 543W, 65, 985, EX, 34, NEQ, 400, 200, 120, 240, 1012, 320, 50, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, TEST, ,
AL, 90, 2016011000, , BEST, 0, 345N, 543W, 65, 985, EX, 50, NEQ, 0, 70, 70, 0, 1012, 320, 50, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, TEST, ,
AL, 90, 2016011000, , BEST, 0, 345N, 543W, 65, 985, EX, 64, NEQ, 0, 0, 50, 0, 1012, 320, 50, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, TEST, ,
AL, 90, 2016011006, , BEST, 0, 340N, 528W, 65, 983, EX, 34, NEQ, 400, 200, 120, 240, 1012, 320, 50, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, TEST, ,
AL, 90, 2016011006, , BEST, 0, 340N, 528W, 65, 983, EX, 50, NEQ, 0, 70, 90, 0, 1012, 320, 50, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, TEST, ,
AL, 90, 2016011006, , BEST, 0, 340N, 528W, 65, 983, EX, 64, NEQ, 0, 0, 50, 0, 1012, 320, 50, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, TEST, ,
AL, 90, 2016011012, , BEST, 0, 331N, 511W, 65, 987, EX, 34, NEQ, 400, 200, 120, 240, 1012, 320, 50, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, TEST, ,
AL, 90, 2016011012, , BEST, 0, 331N, 511W, 65, 987, EX, 50, NEQ, 0, 70, 90, 0, 1012, 320, 50, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, TEST, ,
AL, 90, 2016011012, , BEST, 0, 331N, 511W, 65, 987, EX, 64, NEQ, 0, 0, 50, 0, 1012, 320, 50, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, TEST, ,
AL, 90, 2016011018, , BEST, 0, 320N, 494W, 65, 987, EX, 34, NEQ, 400, 200, 120, 240, 1012, 320, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, TEST, D,
AL, 90, 2016011018, , BEST, 0, 320N, 494W, 65, 987, EX, 50, NEQ, 0, 70, 90, 0, 1012, 320, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, TEST, D,
AL, 90, 2016011018, , BEST, 0, 320N, 494W, 65, 987, EX, 64, NEQ, 0, 0, 50, 0, 1012, 320, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, TEST, D,
AL, 90, 2016011100, , BEST, 0, 314N, 470W, 55, 987, EX, 34, NEQ, 400, 240, 240, 400, 1012, 320, 50, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, TEST, ,
AL, 90, 2016011100, , BEST, 0, 314N, 470W, 55, 987, EX, 50, NEQ, 240, 200, 200, 240, 1012, 320, 50, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, TEST, ,
AL, 90, 2016011106, , BEST, 0, 311N, 450W, 55, 982, EX, 34, NEQ, 400, 240, 240, 400, 1012, 320, 50, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, TEST, ,
AL, 90, 2016011106, , BEST, 0, 311N, 450W, 55, 982, EX, 50, NEQ, 240, 200, 200, 240, 1012, 320, 50, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, TEST, ,
AL, 90, 2016011112, , BEST, 0, 309N, 437W, 55, 982, EX, 34, NEQ, 400, 240, 240, 400, 1012, 400, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, TEST, D,
AL, 90, 2016011112, , BEST, 0, 309N, 437W, 55, 982, EX, 50, NEQ, 240, 200, 200, 240, 1012, 400, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, TEST, D,
AL, 90, 2016011118, , BEST, 0, 300N, 425W, 50, 980, EX, 34, NEQ, 400, 240, 240, 400, 1012, 400, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, TEST, D,
AL, 90, 2016011118, , BEST, 0, 300N, 425W, 50, 980, EX, 50, NEQ, 240, 200, 200, 240, 1012, 400, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, TEST, D,
AL, 90, 2016011200, , BEST, 0, 285N, 415W, 50, 985, EX, 34, NEQ, 400, 240, 240, 400, 1012, 400, 50, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, TEST, ,
AL, 90, 2016011200, , BEST, 0, 285N, 415W, 50, 985, EX, 50, NEQ, 240, 200, 200, 240, 1012, 400, 50, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, TEST, ,
AL, 90, 2016011206, , BEST, 0, 263N, 402W, 50, 989, EX, 34, NEQ, 400, 240, 240, 400, 1012, 400, 50, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, TEST, ,
AL, 90, 2016011206, , BEST, 0, 263N, 402W, 50, 989, EX, 50, NEQ, 240, 200, 200, 240, 1012, 400, 50, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, TEST, ,
AL, 90, 2016011212, , BEST, 0, 248N, 379W, 45, 990, EX, 34, NEQ 400, 240, 240, 400, 1012, 400, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M

[1900hurricane]

That is some very shallow convection.

[tropicwatch]

Looks like this year gets an early start.

[cycloneye]

Up to 50%-50%

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE JAN 12 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Cloudiness and thunderstorms have become a little more concentrated
and organized near the center of a non-tropical low pressure system
centered about 1100 miles southwest of the Azores. The low is
producing winds to near 60 mph over the southern and eastern
portions of its circulation. Although environmental conditions are
only marginally conducive for development, this system could become
a subtropical or tropical storm within the next day or so. The
cyclone is expected to move eastward to northeastward over the
eastern subtropical Atlantic over the next couple of days.
Regardless of subtropical or tropical cyclone formation, this system
is expected to produce hazardous marine conditions over portions of
the eastern Atlantic for the next few days. For additional
information, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service and Meteo France. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook
on this system will be issued by 2 PM EST Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and on
the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.
High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO
header FQNT50 LFPW.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[Hammy]

Is it possible this gets upgraded prior to the next TWO?

[NotoSans]

Initial Dvorak classification from SAB.

TXNT25 KNES 121801
TCSNTL

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (90L)

B. 12/1745Z

C. 25.0N

D. 35.6W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...DT=1.5 BASED ON .25 BANDING ON LOG10
SPRIAL. PT=1.0. MET=1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SCHWARTZ

[cycloneye]

Looks subtropical but I don't work at NHC,is only my opinion.

[TheStormExpert]

Was starting to think that this would never get the Invest tag but it did it! Hooray!!

Anyways I think as well it is showing hints of being Subtropical now, hopefully the NHC pulls the plug if and when it's time.

[cycloneye]

Still Extratropical at 00z Best Track.

AL, 90, 2016011300, , BEST, 0, 255N, 347W, 50, 988, EX

[Exalt]

Already classified as a T2.0 and its beautiful satellite presentation has me sitting here wondering why this hasn't been classified as a full on subtropical storm or tropical storm yet.

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (90L)

B. 12/2345Z

C. 25.5N

D. 34.6W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T2.0/2.0/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...CURVED BANDING WRAPS .3 FOR A DT OF 2.0. MET=1.5 AND
PT=2.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/storms/90L.html

[Hammy]

Already classified as a T2.0 and its beautiful satellite presentation has me sitting here wondering why this hasn't been classified as a full on subtropical storm or tropical storm yet.

I've been analyzing the structure based on ASCAT to see what the frontal structure is doing, and here's the last five days.

http://i.imgur.com/ZjxT1RF.png
http://i.imgur.com/WAQwSsY.png
http://i.imgur.com/K3jEXSZ.png
http://i.imgur.com/8IoGxmt.png
http://i.imgur.com/WSvJAJI.png

The front has clearly become significantly distanced from the low pressure today and it's been winding up pretty well too.


A wider view shows that it's still there though and the western circulation was missed by ASCAT so it's not 100% clear. They are likely waiting for both a western pass as well as persistence with the organization, and it will likely be upgraded tomorrow should the trend continue as the models show about 36 hours of intensification before it starts to move into more shear/cooler waters.

[1900hurricane]

At least for the current moment, I'm just not getting tropical vibes from this invest. Convection remains very shallow, and there are plenty of spots around the circulation where the tops fail to reach even -30*C. In addition, satellite derived PWs show only around 37 mm (1.5") of water, which is very much not tropical. If convection deepens some by tomorrow, I think a case can be made for a subtropical system, but such systems are not necessarily explicitly defined and determined more subjectively.

[Exalt]

NOAA has stopped Dvorak estimates and has classified 90L subtropical, so I'm assuming that Alex will be in fact acknowledged today in the next outlook.

A. SUBTROPICAL DISTURBANCE (90L)

B. 13/0545Z

C. 25.6N

D. 33.8W

E. THREE/MET-10

F. SUBTROPICAL

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS...THIS WILL BE THE FINAL BULLETIN DUE TO LACK OF TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS AND THE ONSET OF SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SALEMI

[Alyono]

If anything, it may mean NHC is less likely as the system is less tropical than it was yesterday according to SSD

[Alyono]

That said, this looks more tropical than it ever has. Not sure NHC will issue advisories, however. It's January, and it is not affecting anyone

It is interesting to note that NHC is no longer calling this extratropical

AL, 90, 2016011306, , BEST, 0, 256N, 337W, 45, 991, LO, 34, NEQ, 60, 120, 120, 60, 1012, 480, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 90, 2016011312, , BEST, 0, 260N, 325W, 45, 989, LO, 34, NEQ, 60, 120, 120, 60, 1012, 500, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M

Makes me think this will be a storm added AFTER the season is over

[cycloneye]

Agree Alyono with them doing post season adding Storm at Best Track.

[Alyono]

well defined eye now. Probably a strong tropical storm

[TheStormExpert]

Wish the NHC would just go ahead and issue advisories despite where it is located. It obviously is at the very least Subtropical if not purely Tropical.

[Hammy]

Wish the NHC would just go ahead and issue advisories despite where it is located. It obviously is at the very least Subtropical if not purely Tropical.

They are issuing the special outlooks every 24 hours, and will likely not upgrade without first increasing the development chances. It was increased yesterday to 50% and I imagine at the rate it's going we'll have advisories by the end of today. They may wait until 10pm just to make sure the structure holds and simply to straight to tropical (rather than subtropical).

[1900hurricane]

I'd probably be in favor of classifiying 90L as a subtropical system at this point. In contrast to 15 hours or so ago when I made my last post, some (relatively) deeper convection has managed to develop a ring immediately around the center. BD enhancement shows a complete dark grey ring (<-30*C) and a nearly complete medium grey ring (<-41*C). In addition, a higher magnitude of PW vales have begun to concentrate around the center.