SPAC: VICTOR - Post-Tropical

[supercane]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A19 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 180150 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE VICTOR CENTRE 975HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED
NEAR 18.1S 166.3W AT 180000 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GOES VIS
IMAGERY. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH AT 06 KTS. MAXIMUM 10 MINUTE AVERAGE
WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 65 KNOTS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 110 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT,
WITHIN 210 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT,
WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 140 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT WITH CONVECTIVE BANDS TIGHTLY
WRAPPING AROUND LLCC. ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD. OUTFLOW GOOD. SST
AROUND 29 DEGREES CELCIUS. SYSTEM LIES UNDER A STRONG UPPER
DIVERGENCE REGION AND IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CIRCULATION
EXTENDS TO 250HPA. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 1.5 WRAP YIELDS DT=4.5,
MET AND PAT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT. THUS YIELDING T4.5/4.5/S0.0/24HRS.


FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 181200 UTC 19.3S 166.4W MOV S AT 06KT WITH 65 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 190000 UTC 20.2S 166.7W MOV S AT 05KT WITH 65 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 191200 UTC 20.7S 167.3W MOV SSW AT 05KT WITH 65 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 200000 UTC 21.1S 168.2W MOV SSW AT 04KT WITH 65 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON SEVERE TC VICTOR WILL BE
ISSUED AROUND 180800 UTC.

[stormwise]

As before mentioned by 1900hurricane STC Victor, has a very large eye radius 680miles/1100km.

[supercane]

WTPS51 PGTW 180900
WARNING ATCG MIL 07P SWP 160118080239
2016011806 07P VICTOR 008 01 170 09 SATL 040
T000 191S 1661W 075 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 170 SE QD 140 SW QD 140 NW QD
T012 202S 1663W 080 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 170 SE QD 140 SW QD 140 NW QD
T024 209S 1669W 080 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 180 SE QD 150 SW QD 150 NW QD
T036 212S 1678W 075 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 190 SE QD 160 SW QD 160 NW QD
T048 214S 1688W 070 R064 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 200 SE QD 170 SW QD 170 NW QD
T072 214S 1709W 065 R050 120 NE QD 120 SE QD 090 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 210 SE QD 180 SW QD 180 NW QD
T096 222S 1736W 055
T120 248S 1751W 045
AMP
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (VICTOR) WARNING NR 008
<rest omitted>
REMARKS:
180900Z POSITION NEAR 19.4S 166.1W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (VICTOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 391 NM
SOUTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. A 180614Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A LARGE MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURE THAT SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
CLOUD-TOPS HAVE COOLED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS WITH
INCREASING DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T4.5, WHICH SUPPORT THE CURRENT
INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW AND LOW (10 TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC
VICTOR WILL CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWARD ALONG AN AREA OF WARM SST
(27C) OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHICH SHOULD AID IN THE SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
TRACKING OVER COOLER WATER LEADING TO GRADUAL WEAKENING. TC 07P IS
BEING STEERED SOUTHWARD BY A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTHEAST. THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH
TAU 72 CAUSING TC VICTOR TO TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST, AND THEN WEST.
AFTER TAU 72, A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST, RECURVING THE SYSTEM, AND THEN ACCELERATING IT SOUTHWARD. TC
07P WILL BEGIN WEAKENING RAPIDLY AFTER TAU 72 AS IT ENCOUNTERS MUCH
COLDER WATER AND HIGHER VWS VALUES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT
ENTERS THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES BY TAU 120 AND THEREAFTER.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONSOLIDATED ON THE FORECAST TRACK OVER
THE LAST COUPLE RUNS, THEREFORE THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS SUPPORTED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS
28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 182100Z AND 190900Z.//

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A21 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 181334 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE VICTOR CENTRE 965HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED
NEAR 19.8S 166.1W AT 181200 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR GOES IR
IMAGERY. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH AT 08 KTS. MAXIMUM 10 MINUTE AVERAGE
WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 75 KNOTS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 110 NAUTICAL MILES IN EAST
SEMICIRCLE
AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN WEST
SEMICIRCLE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 210 NAUTICAL MILES IN E SEMICIRCLE,
WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 140 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT WITH CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING
AROUND LLCC. CLOUD TOPS COOLING. ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD. OUTFLOW
GOOD TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. SST AROUND 27 DEGREES CELCIUS. SYSTEM
LIES UNDER A STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE REGION AND IN A LOW SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. CIRCULATION EXTENDS TO 250HPA. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON
EYE PATTERN WITH WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY MG WITH NO EYE ADJUSTMENT DUE
DO LARGE EYE YIELDS DT=4.5, MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON MET. THUS
YIELDING T4.5/4.5/D0.5/24HRS.


FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 190000 UTC 20.7S 166.5W MOV SSW AT 05KT WITH 80 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 191200 UTC 21.2S 167.2W MOV SW AT 05KT WITH 75 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 200000 UTC 21.4S 168.2W MOV WSW AT 04KT WITH 70 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 201200 UTC 21.5S 169.3W MOV W AT 05KT WITH 65 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON SEVERE TC VICTOR WILL BE
ISSUED AROUND 182000 UTC.

[1900hurricane]

This is the best Victor has looked for its entire lifetime.

[1900hurricane]

[image removed]
As before mentioned by 1900hurricane STC Victor, has a very large eye radius 680miles/1100km.

You're about an order of magnitude off with your calculation. In your image, Victor's eye is about two degrees wide. If the distance of one degree is just about 60 nautical miles (roughly 69 stature miles). One degree also happens to be the radius of a two degree wide eye, so the radius would also be about 69 stature miles, making the diameter 120 nautical miles (138 stature miles). While large, this is still considerably smaller than the 200 nautical mile in diameter eyes of Typhoon Carmen '60 and Typhoon Winnie '97, the largest we have observed. And just for comparison sake, an eye with a radius of 680 stature miles (diameter of 1360 stature miles, or almost 20 degrees) would just about be able to completely enclose Typhoon Tip, the largest tropical cyclone we have observed (tropical storm wind diameter of 1380 stature miles).

[supercane]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A22 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 182005 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE VICTOR CENTRE 965HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED
NEAR 20.2S 166.3W AT 181800 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR GOES IR
IMAGERY. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH AT 07 KTS. MAXIMUM 10 MINUTE AVERAGE
WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 80 KNOTS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 110 NAUTICAL MILES IN EAST
SEMICIRCLE
AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN WEST
SEMICIRCLE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 210 NAUTICAL MILES IN E SEMICIRCLE,
WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 140 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT WITH CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING
AROUND LLCC. CLOUD TOPS COOLING. ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD. OUTFLOW
GOOD TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. SST AROUND 27 DEGREES CELCIUS. SYSTEM
LIES UNDER A STRONG UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION AND IN A LOW SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. CIRCULATION EXTENDS TO 250HPA. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON
EYE PATTERN WITH WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY LG YIELDS DT=5.0, MET AND PT
AGREE. FT BASED ON MET. THUS YIELDING T5.0/5.0/D1.0/24HRS.


FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 190600 UTC 20.9S 166.8W MOV SW AT 04KT WITH 80 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 191800 UTC 21.2S 167.6W MOV SW AT 04KT WITH 80 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 200600 UTC 21.4S 168.6W MOV WSW AT 04KT WITH 75 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 201800 UTC 21.5S 169.6W MOV WSW AT 04KT WITH 70 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON SEVERE TC VICTOR WILL BE
ISSUED AROUND 190200 UTC.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WTPS51 PGTW 182100
WARNING ATCG MIL 07P SWP 160118195934
2016011818 07P VICTOR 009 01 195 04 SATL 060
T000 201S 1662W 090 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 180 SE QD 150 SW QD 150 NW QD
T012 206S 1667W 085 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 180 SE QD 150 SW QD 150 NW QD
T024 211S 1674W 080 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 180 SE QD 150 SW QD 150 NW QD
T036 213S 1686W 070 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 190 SE QD 160 SW QD 160 NW QD
T048 214S 1696W 065 R064 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 200 SE QD 170 SW QD 170 NW QD
T072 214S 1723W 055 R050 120 NE QD 120 SE QD 090 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 210 SE QD 180 SW QD 180 NW QD
T096 227S 1750W 045
T120 260S 1764W 045
AMP
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (VICTOR) WARNING NR 009
<rest omitted>
REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 20.2S 166.3W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (VICTOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 365 NM WEST
OF RAROTONGA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEAL DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING AROUND A RAGGED EYE
WHICH HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY IN SIZE OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
AN 180728Z PARTIAL SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTED A LARGE MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURE THAT SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T5.0 FROM ALL AGENCIES SUPPORT THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS AND REFLECT THE DECREASE IN THE EYE DIAMETER.
THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO BE FAVORABLE WITH ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). WHILE THIS OUTFLOW
CHANNEL WILL MAINTAIN ITSELF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, TC 07P WILL
BEGIN MOVING INTO AN AREA OF DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SSTS) AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC). TC 07P HAS REACHED MAXIMUM
INTENSITY AND WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AFTER TAU 12. THE NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST IS THE DOMINANT STEERING FEATURE
AND IS BUILDING TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST, STEERING THE SYSTEM ONTO A
WESTERLY TRACK THROUGH TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL WEAKEN THE STEERING RIDGE AND
CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO RECURVE AND ACCELERATE SOUTHWARD. AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING TROUGH, TC 07P WILL EXPERIENCE INCREASED UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW, ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH FOR
A SHORT TIME BEFORE RAPIDLY WEAKENING AFTER TAU 120 AS IT ENCOUNTERS
MUCH COLDER WATER AND HIGH VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION AS IT ENTERS THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES BY TAU 120 AND
THEREAFTER. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONSOLIDATED ON THE
FORECAST TRACK THROUGH TAU 96, AND THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS
32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190900Z AND 192100Z.//

[stormwise]

[image removed]
As before mentioned by 1900hurricane STC Victor, has a very large eye radius 680miles/1100km.

You're about an order of magnitude off with your calculation. In your image, Victor's eye is about two degrees wide. If the distance of one degree is just about 60 nautical miles (roughly 69 stature miles). One degree also happens to be the radius of a two degree wide eye, so the radius would also be about 69 stature miles, making the diameter 120 nautical miles (138 stature miles). While large, this is still considerably smaller than the 200 nautical mile in diameter eyes of Typhoon Carmen '60 and Typhoon Winnie '97, the largest we have observed. And just for comparison sake, an eye with a radius of 680 stature miles (diameter of 1360 stature miles, or almost 20 degrees) would just about be able to completely enclose Typhoon Tip, the largest tropical cyclone we have observed (tropical storm wind diameter of 1380 stature miles).

yeah i left the decimal points out, you are very observant.

[Exalt]

Is this storm close to turning annular? It has the eye and the shape down but it's a little bit asymmetrical..

[stormwise]

https://www.facebook.com/FijiMetService?hc_location=ufi

[supercane]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A23 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 190132 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE VICTOR CENTRE 960HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED
NEAR 20.6S 166.7W AT 190000 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR GOES IR
IMAGERY. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH AT 06 KTS. MAXIMUM 10 MINUTE AVERAGE
WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 80 KNOTS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 110 NAUTICAL MILES IN EAST
SEMICIRCLE
AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN WEST
SEMICIRCLE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 240 NAUTICAL MILES IN E SEMICIRCLE,
WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 140 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT WITH CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING
AROUND LLCC. CLOUD TOPS COOLING. ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD. OUTFLOW
GOOD TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. SST AROUND 27 DEGREES CELCIUS. SYSTEM
LIES UNDER A STRONG UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION AND IN A LOW SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. CIRCULATION EXTENDS TO 250HPA. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON
EYE PATTERN WITH WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY LG WITH NO EYE ADJUSTMENT DUE
TO LARGE YIELDS DT=5.0, MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON MET. THUS
YIELDING T5.0/5.0/D0.5/24HRS.


FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 191200 UTC 21.2S 167.4W MOV SW AT 05KT WITH 80 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 200000 UTC 21.4S 168.4W MOV SW AT 05KT WITH 80 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 201200 UTC 21.4S 169.5W MOV WSW AT 05KT WITH 75 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 210000 UTC 21.5S 170.7W MOV WSW AT 05KT WITH 70 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON SEVERE TC VICTOR WILL BE
ISSUED AROUND 190800 UTC.

[supercane]

WTPS51 PGTW 190900
WARNING ATCG MIL 07P SWP 160119080401
2016011906 07P VICTOR 010 01 235 06 SATL 025
T000 208S 1671W 080 R064 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 080 SE QD 110 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 250 SE QD 190 SW QD 140 NW QD
T012 212S 1680W 075 R064 045 NE QD 030 SE QD 045 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 070 SE QD 100 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 250 SE QD 190 SW QD 140 NW QD
T024 215S 1690W 070 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 060 SE QD 090 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 250 SE QD 190 SW QD 140 NW QD
T036 216S 1701W 060 R050 080 NE QD 050 SE QD 080 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 250 SE QD 190 SW QD 140 NW QD
T048 218S 1712W 050 R034 190 NE QD 250 SE QD 190 SW QD 140 NW QD
T072 230S 1729W 040 R034 175 NE QD 250 SE QD 200 SW QD 130 NW QD
T096 259S 1737W 035
T120 288S 1733W 035
AMP
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (VICTOR) WARNING NR 010
<rest omitted>
REMARKS:
190900Z POSITION NEAR 20.9S 167.3W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (VICTOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 410 NM
WEST OF RAROTONGA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A
FAIRLY SYMMETRIC CIRCULATION WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING
INTO A RAGGED 35NM EYE; HOWEVER, ANIMATED ENHANCED IR IMAGERY SHOWS
A SLIGHT WEAKENING IN THE CENTRAL CONVECTION OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. A 190528Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A SMALLER
(25NM) AND MORE DEFINED EYE FEATURE SUPPORTING THE CURRENT POSITION
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW
AND KNES HAVE HELD STEADY AT T5.0 (90 KTS); HOWEVER, SATCON
INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DROPPED TO 81 KTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A STRONG EASTWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. TC VICTOR IS TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LOW
TO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN
THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INCREASE DUE TO
AN APPROACHING TROUGH WHICH WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT WEAKENING
TREND. TC 07P WILL BEGIN A WEAK EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 120
AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN TIGHT AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS SUPPORTING A WESTWARD
TRACK AND FURTHER WEAKENING, BUT SPREADS BEYOND TAU 36 AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH ABSORBS THE CYCLONE. THE INCREASING MODEL
SPREAD BEYOND TAU 36 LEADS TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 192100Z AND 200900Z.//

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A25 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 191344 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE VICTOR CENTRE 965HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED
NEAR 21.2S 167.6W AT 191200 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR GOES IR
IMAGERY. CYCLONE MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 05 KTS. MAXIMUM 10 MINUTE
AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 75 KNOTS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN EAST
SEMICIRCLE,
WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT,

AND WITHIN 080 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 220 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT,
WITHIN 160 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT,

AND WITHIN 240 NAUTICAL MILES IN SOUTH
SEMICIRCLE.

DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED SLIGHTLY WITH CLOUD TOPS WARMING PAST 6
HOURS. CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO A LARGE EYE. ORGANISATION
REMAINS GOOD. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. SST AROUND 27
DEGREES CELCIUS. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION IN A LOW
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CIRCULATION EXTENDS TO 250HPA. SYSTEM IS
TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWEST DUE TO THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE
SOUTHEAST. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EYE PATTERN WITH WMG EYE
SURROUNDED BY OW YEILDS DT=4.0, MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON MET.
THUS YIELDING T4.0/4.5/W0.5/24HRS.


FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 200000 UTC 21.6S 168.6W MOV WSW AT 05KT WITH 65KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 201200 UTC 21.8S 169.7W MOV WSW AT 05KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 210000 UTC 22.2S 170.8W MOV WSW AT 05KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 211200 UTC 22.7S 171.8W MOV WSW AT 05KT WITH 55 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON SEVERE TC VICTOR WILL BE
ISSUED AROUND 192000 UTC.

[stormwise]

Powerful storm.

[jaguarjace]

RSMC Nadi Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP
Tropical Cyclone VICTOR

Tropical Cyclone Warning Number 105 issued 1909 UTC Wednesday 20 January 2016

[stormwise]

UKMET guidance, close shave for Tonga as a weakening TS.


http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weat ... /#?tab=map

[stormwise]

http://www.met.gov.to/index_files/routine_forecast.txt